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ABC News
08-07-2025
- Climate
- ABC News
Eastern states shivered through a chilly June, is a warmer winter still on the cards?
It is now two weeks past the winter solstice, and despite a prediction of a warmer winter, many Australians have been feeling the cold. Large parts of the country have shivered through sub-zero temperatures and there have been big dumps of snow and powerful storms. So, have temperatures been significantly cold, or has the country become acclimatised to milder winter temperatures? A look at overnight minimum temperatures, which typically occur first thing in the morning, indicates days have started particularly chilly in many parts of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology's temperature anomaly map shows most of the country experienced "cooler than average" minimum temperatures for June, apart from southern WA, western South Australia and northern Queensland. Daytime maximum temperatures, however, were closer to average for most of the country, apart from WA, which was warmer than normal. BOM climatologist Qian Zhou said the cold mornings had made it New South Wales's coldest June in nearly 20 years, by minimum temperature, while Queensland had its coldest June minimums in over a decade. "In June, several cold fronts passed us through the south and south-east with cold air behind it," Ms Zhou said. "And after the cold front passed, high-pressure systems settled in, creating the clear skies and the light winds overnight, allowing heat to escape. The cold minimum temperatures included -10 degrees Celsius in Goulburn, in the New South Wales Southern Tablelands, on June 21, which was colder than some sites in Antarctica. Canberra had three mornings in a row below -7C, a record cold run for the city. Tasmania also saw some particularly cold mornings late in the month, with Liawenee plunging to -9C, while Queensland's typically mild weather was freezing on several occasions. While the frigid mornings have warranted a scarf and beanie, they have been far from remarkable by historical standards — with the month coming in as the 48th coldest June on record. "Although the minimum temperature in June across Australia was below average, it was not that remarkably low compared to history," Ms Zhou said. Barely more than a handful of sites with more than 20 years of data broke daily cold records. Ms Zhou said record cold temperatures were becoming less common because of climate change. Since 1910, Australia's average temperature has warmed by more than 1.5C, with most of that change occurring since the 1950s. It means all seasons are getting warmer on average. The last "colder than average" winter, for example, was more than a decade ago. While cold extremes have become rarer, warm extremes have been getting more common, according to Ms Zhou. "And there has been an increase in number of extreme heat events. "A big part of this is due to global warming." The exception was for extreme cold nights in parts of south-east and south-west Australia, where the frequency of frost had been relatively unchanged since the 1980s. Ms Zhou said this was because those regions were also facing a rainfall decline during the cooler months, resulting in more time under clear skies and more "heat loss from the surface" — just like this year. The official winter outlook strongly favoured warm days and nights for June for almost the entire country. June was warmer than average for maximum temperatures. So, in that case, the outlook was accurate. But for the minimum temperatures, the outlook showed strong odds of warm minimum temperatures and for most places, that did not eventuate. Ms Zhou said it demonstrated how individual weather events, which were not able to be detected in the long-range outlook, could change the outcome of a month or season. "The long-range forecasts are unable to predict individual weather events more than one or two weeks in advance," she said. "Those weather systems are short timescales, but the long-range outlook is providing a forecast of the overall trend for the season. "In June, there were at least two major cold fronts with cold outbreaks, which brought abnormally cold air to much of the country and particularly to the east, which the long-range forecast was unlikely to be able to resolve at a long lead time." Technically, though, the outlook can not be wrong because it is not declaring what will happen, but just presenting the odds. Even though there was an 80 per cent chance of it being warmer than average, there was still a 20 per cent chance of it being colder than average. In this case, the outside chance won. Just because June was cold, it does not mean the rest of winter will continue that way. You only need to look to last year as an example. Frigid temperatures in June 2024 saw many calling it the "coldest winter in living memory" and criticising the BOM for getting their forecast wrong. But by the end of August, it was Australia's second-warmest winter on record. The Bureau of Meteorology has softened its forecast for the rest of this winter though. For the most part, it is still expected to be warmer than normal for July and August. But what was a fairly emphatic signal of warmth for the entire country is now looking more patchy, depending on where you live. Parts of South Australia are now expected to have cooler-than-average minimum temperatures in July, though maximum temperatures are still expected to be above average for most. And by August, large parts of inland Australia are showing even chances of above- or below-average maximum temperatures — meaning it could go either way. As for rainfall, July is forecast to be average to below average for most places, apart from coastal NSW, which is expected to be wetter than normal. This changes in August, with rainfall largely favoured to be above average for most of the NT, Queensland, NSW and parts of South Australia.
The Guardian
16-06-2025
- Climate
- The Guardian
Big chill to continue across south-eastern Australia as outback towns plunge to record lows
Nippy weather was expected to continue across south-eastern Australia, after a cooler than usual start to June and record-setting cold in some outback towns. Cooler temperatures, gusty winds, showers and alpine snow were forecast for the south-east into Tuesday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Qian Zhou, with alpine snow expected in Victoria, Tasmania, and south-eastern New South Wales. Rainfall was expected for south-west Western Australia from Tuesday. But conditions were unlikely to be as chilly as last week, Zhou said, given the second week of June had reached minimum temperatures more than 2C below average across most of the country, and up to 10C below average in parts. Forecasts for the capitals on Tuesday included Canberra with a minimum of 0C and high of 12C, and Hobart with a minimum of 5C and maximum of 13C. From a minimum of 8C, Sydney would hit a sunny 18C. A top of 14 was forecast for Melbourne, with a minimum 9C. Adelaide could expect a minimum of 10C and maximum 16C. Brisbane would be cloudy with a minimum of 12C and maximum of 21C. And the bureau said there would be showers in Perth, with a minimum 10C and maximum 21C. Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton's Clear Air column as a free newsletter Central Queensland experienced a 'particularly cold day' on Thursday, with minimum temperatures up to 12C below average, Zhou said. Clear skies during the night allowed more heat to be released from the surface, along with consistent southerly winds bringing the colder air from the south. Winton airport recorded 0C on 12 June, she said, which was the lowest June temperature on record for the outback Queensland town. The town's previous coldest June temperature was 0.4C on 23 June 2019. On the same day, the station at Gayndah airport – 320km north-west of Brisbane – recorded -1.1C, eclipsing its previous record of 0C on 22 June 2004. Mount Isa minimums were sitting at 5C below average for June so far, the mining town's coolest on record, according to the bureau. Ski fields were pleased with conditions being cold enough for snow. Most received about 50 to 70cm of snowfall over the King's Birthday long weekend, according to Weatherzone. A further 10 to 15cm was expected this week by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Sign up to Clear Air Australia Adam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisis after newsletter promotion 'It's been a dream start,' said Lani Banerjee, the environment manager for Vail Resorts Australia, which manages Perisher in NSW and Falls Creek and Mount Hotham in Victoria. 'We couldn't be happier with the start we've had … which kicked off with an early-season snowstorm and very cold temperatures ideal for snowmaking,' she said. So far, 65cm of natural snow had fallen at Perisher, 77cm at Hotham and 78cm at Falls Creek. 'We now have a solid base, and our guests have been having the time of their lives out on the slopes.' Mount Buller in Victoria had recorded 37cm of snow so far, with a good chance of more falling on Tuesday, a spokesperson said, before clearing conditions midweek that meant 'blue sky ski days into the weekend'. 'Mount Buller has been recording snowfall and depths consistently for over 45 years and conditions are currently tracking strongly for early winter – in our top 10 of seasons to date.' Despite the wintry and cold conditions in the south-east, the bureau's long range forecast still anticipated above average maximum and minimum temperatures for much of the country in June to September, Zhou said. 'That doesn't mean every day will be warmer than average, we can still get some cold periods.' Australia, on average, has warmed up by 1.51C since national records began in 1910.
