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The Advertiser
15-06-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
Australia holds cards as global lithium shortage looms
Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles. The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains. "So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient." In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands. For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative. Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota. Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000. Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons. The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports. The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent. Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes. A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production. It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes. Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport. "Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said. Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles. The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains. "So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient." In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands. For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative. Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota. Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000. Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons. The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports. The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent. Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes. A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production. It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes. Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport. "Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said. Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles. The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains. "So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient." In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands. For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative. Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota. Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000. Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons. The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports. The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent. Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes. A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production. It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes. Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport. "Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said. Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles. The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains. "So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient." In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands. For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative. Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota. Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000. Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons. The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports. The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent. Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes. A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production. It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes. Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport. "Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said.
Perth Now
14-06-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Australia holds cards as global lithium shortage looms
Despite undergoing an expected tenfold explosion over the next five years, international lithium production is destined to fall short of soaring universal demand for electric vehicles. The highly sought after alkali metal has become "as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution", according to Shanghai academic Qifan Xia. "While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries," he explains. "So we were interested if the major EV markets can be self-sufficient." In fact, the world's biggest lithium markets - China, Europe and the United States - account for 80 per cent of global EV sales but simply won't be able, by 2030, to meet their own demands. For the planet's leading lithium producers - Australia and Chile - the future is therefore lucrative. Dr Xia and his team at East China Normal University estimate the economic superpower will need up to 1.3 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent - a standard measure of lithium content - to meet its new electric vehicle quota. Europe could require 792,000 tons and the US 692,000. Based on existing and proposed mining projects for all three, China might be able to produce somewhere between 804,000 and 1.1 million tons of equivalent by 2030. Production in Europe could reach 325,000 tons and in the USA, between 229,000 and 610,000 tons. The predictions suggest even the most ambitious plans to expand domestic mining would fall short, even if projects begin quickly. Europe would face the largest gap, with modelling showing it would rely heavily on imports. The researchers also warn that increased imports by one region would directly reduce access for others, exacerbating supply constraints and straining international trade relations. In one scenario they calculated, an increase of 77 per cent in Chinese imports would mean imports to the US would drop by 84 per cent and to Europe by 78 per cent. Most of Australia's lithium is produced from hard-rock spodumene, in contrast to other major producers like Argentina, Chile and China, which produce it mainly from salt lakes. A 2023 estimate suggested Australian production will hit a cap of 1.2 million tonnes of equivalent by 2030 and it will remain the top producer but with a smaller proportion of the world's production. It is currently the biggest producer of lithium by weight, with most extraction undertaken in Western Australia including at the worlds largest hard-rock mine, Greenbushes. Dr Xia says other means of avoiding a looming lithium crisis might include adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium, or shifting consumer focus to promoting public transport. "Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals," he said.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Electric vehicle boom could lead to lithium shortage, study warns
Soaring global demand for electric vehicles could lead to a significant lithium shortage by 2030, particularly in Europe, a study warns. According to researchers from East China Normal University in Shanghai and Lund University in Sweden, current plans to expand lithium production won't be enough to meet rising global needs. Europe is projected to face the biggest gap. While EU production could reach 325,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent annually by 2030, demand is expected to soar to 792,000 tons - more than double the supply. Study co-author Qifan Xia described lithium as being as important today as petrol was during the Industrial Revolution. He said that while global lithium reserves are substantial, they are unevenly spread across countries, posing major challenges to meeting rising demand. Lithium is mainly used in lithium-ion batteries, such as those found in smartphones, laptops and electric cars. Europe depends on imports Europe currently depends almost entirely on imports, with key suppliers including Chile, Australia and China. Several pilot projects are under way - but the continent is unlikely to become self-sufficient. The United States and China also face shortfalls, though less severe. By 2030, US production could cover up to 90% of demand. China's production could reach 1.1 million tons, which would still fall short of its projected demand of 1.3 million tons. To help ease the shortage, the study recommends expanding production while also reducing lithium use. Potential solutions include new battery technologies that require little or no lithium, such as sodium-ion batteries, which are already being used in some cars in China. Without urgent action, the report warns, supply constraints could derail global climate and energy transition goals.
Glasgow Times
12-06-2025
- Automotive
- Glasgow Times
Lithium supplies will not keep up with demand for electric cars, experts warn
Researchers from East China Normal University in Shanghai and Sweden's Lund University described this as a 'looming crisis' that could cause 'delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals'. They warned that domestic lithium production could grow as much as 10 times in some areas of Europe, the US and China by 2030 but still fall short of the 'soaring demand' without technological innovations or increasing imports. Lithium, an element which is generally obtained by mining, is a critical component in most EV batteries. EVs are seen as vital to decarbonising road transport, and demand for them is surging in Europe, the US and China. Pure battery electric new cars held a 20.9% market share for the first five months of this year, up from 16.1% during the same period in 2024. Sale of conventionally-fuelled new cars will be banned in the UK from 2030. The report found that under 'most scenarios' for the future levels of lithium production and the amount required, domestic supplies in Europe, the US and China – where 80% of the world's EVs are sold – 'cannot meet demand'. This would lead to those regions 'requiring trade to fill the gap', the study added. Researchers estimated that Europe might need 792,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent – a measure of lithium content – by 2030. Based on existing and proposed lithium-mining projects, production in Europe could reach 325,000 metric tons at that point. Measures to tackle the shortfall suggested by the authors of the study included shifting focus from producing personal EVs to promoting the use of public transport, and adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium. The UK imports all the lithium it currently uses from countries such as China and the US, but several companies are developing plans to extract reserves in Cornwall and the North East of England. Portugal is the only European Union member to mine and process lithium. Qifan Xia, of East China Normal University, author of the study published in journal Cell Reports Sustainability, said: 'Lithium today is as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution. 'While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries. 'Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers, and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals.' Ben Nelmes, founder of green consultancy New AutoMotive, said: 'Lithium will be a key part of the economy, from mining and refining through to cell manufacturing and recycling. 'It is therefore vital that European policymakers send positive signals to investors by maintaining ambitious targets for electric cars and a supportive environment for mining projects.' Separate analysis by the organisation estimated that up to a quarter of a million jobs in Europe could be created in the next five years through EV battery production and the supply chain. These include roles in sectors such as mining, gigafactories – large sites where EV batteries are produced – and recycling.
South Wales Guardian
12-06-2025
- Automotive
- South Wales Guardian
Lithium supplies will not keep up with demand for electric cars, experts warn
Researchers from East China Normal University in Shanghai and Sweden's Lund University described this as a 'looming crisis' that could cause 'delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals'. They warned that domestic lithium production could grow as much as 10 times in some areas of Europe, the US and China by 2030 but still fall short of the 'soaring demand' without technological innovations or increasing imports. Lithium, an element which is generally obtained by mining, is a critical component in most EV batteries. EVs are seen as vital to decarbonising road transport, and demand for them is surging in Europe, the US and China. Pure battery electric new cars held a 20.9% market share for the first five months of this year, up from 16.1% during the same period in 2024. Sale of conventionally-fuelled new cars will be banned in the UK from 2030. The report found that under 'most scenarios' for the future levels of lithium production and the amount required, domestic supplies in Europe, the US and China – where 80% of the world's EVs are sold – 'cannot meet demand'. This would lead to those regions 'requiring trade to fill the gap', the study added. Researchers estimated that Europe might need 792,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent – a measure of lithium content – by 2030. Based on existing and proposed lithium-mining projects, production in Europe could reach 325,000 metric tons at that point. Measures to tackle the shortfall suggested by the authors of the study included shifting focus from producing personal EVs to promoting the use of public transport, and adopting battery technologies that use less or no lithium. The UK imports all the lithium it currently uses from countries such as China and the US, but several companies are developing plans to extract reserves in Cornwall and the North East of England. Portugal is the only European Union member to mine and process lithium. Qifan Xia, of East China Normal University, author of the study published in journal Cell Reports Sustainability, said: 'Lithium today is as important as gasoline in the industrial revolution. 'While lithium reserves are substantial around the world, they are distributed unevenly across different countries. 'Our study showed that without immediate action to expand mining, diversify suppliers, and rethink how we manage demand, the world risks delays in meeting critical climate and energy goals.' Ben Nelmes, founder of green consultancy New AutoMotive, said: 'Lithium will be a key part of the economy, from mining and refining through to cell manufacturing and recycling. 'It is therefore vital that European policymakers send positive signals to investors by maintaining ambitious targets for electric cars and a supportive environment for mining projects.' Separate analysis by the organisation estimated that up to a quarter of a million jobs in Europe could be created in the next five years through EV battery production and the supply chain. These include roles in sectors such as mining, gigafactories – large sites where EV batteries are produced – and recycling.
