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The Diplomat
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Can the Quad Hold the Line on Taiwan?
U.S. calls for clearer commitments on Taiwan underscore the growing pressure on the Quad, as the Taiwan issue increasingly tests the group's unity and strategic purpose. The Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting at the Department of State in Washington, D.C., July 1, 2025. From left, Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi, Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Taiwan's 40th Han Kuang military exercise, its most extensive to date, will span ten days and simulate a full-scale Chinese invasion. These drills incorporate amphibious assaults, joint-force coordination, and extensive civilian-military integration across multiple domains. Taiwan also showcased enhanced deterrent capabilities with U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems, F-16V fighter jets, and indigenous Sky Sword II and Sky Bow III missile systems. The activation of 22,000 reservists marked an unprecedented expansion of national defense mobilization, signaling Taiwan's growing commitment to preparing for conflict rather than merely deterring it. This shift is a direct response to the increasingly aggressive behavior of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA). Gray zone coercion has become routine. PLA aircraft and naval incursions across the Taiwan Strait's median line surged from 565 in 2022 to over 3,070 in 2024, an average of more than eight per day. In January 2025 alone, Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone recorded 248 crossings, which represents a 75 percent increase compared to January 2022. These provocations are designed to wear down Taiwan's defenses without crossing the threshold into open conflict, reflecting China's long-term strategy of psychological pressure, strategic normalization, and the gradual erosion of Taiwan's sovereignty through fatigue Taiwan is no longer waiting passively for external support. It is building an active and layered defense strategy in anticipation of a volatile future. This recalibration has drawn attention from Taiwan's strategic partners, particularly the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad): Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. Originally conceived as a maritime security initiative, the Quad has evolved into a broader Indo-Pacific framework committed to ensuring a free, open, and rules-based regional order. Yet the Taiwan question exposes the grouping's limitations. Unlike NATO, the Quad is not a military alliance. Still, the urgency of Taiwan's situation has sparked debate over whether the group should develop a more coherent strategy for collective deterrence. The United States has called for greater clarity from its allies Australia and Japan regarding their roles in a potential Taiwan conflict. The Pentagon is also actively working to align operational plans with allies through behind-the-scenes consultations and strategic dialogues. However, progress remains slow, hindered by political constraints and divergent national priorities. Japan has strengthened its defense posture, increasing its budget from 6.8 trillion yen in 2023 to 8.7 trillion yen in 2025, or 1.8 percent of GDP. It has expanded joint drills with the United States and is reassessing its strategic doctrines. However, constitutional limits and public ambivalence remain obstacles. A survey by Asahi Shimbun found that 62 percent of Japanese citizens consider a regional conflict likely, yet a majority prefer that Japan pursue a path of neutrality and global cooperation, with only 18.7 percent supporting closer alignment with the United States. Australia has also adopted a cautious approach. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to China this week highlights the dual-track strategy of deepening U.S. defense ties while preserving strong economic relations with China. Amid U.S. calls for clarity on Taiwan, the Australian government stated that 'it would not commit troops in advance to any potential conflict.' The stakes are significant, as Australia's exports to China reached AU$196 billion (US$$128 billion) last year, exceeding the combined total of Australia's next four largest markets. A report by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Center estimated that Australia's trade with China contributes an additional AU$2,600 to the average household income each year. In contrast, recent tariffs imposed by the United States average around 10 percent, while those under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement remain at just 1.1 percent. This disparity has strengthened the perception of China as a more stable and economically reliable partner for Australia. India, the only member of the Quad that is not a U.S. ally, continues to maintain deliberate silence on Taiwan, consistent with its longstanding recognition of the One China policy since 1949. Even amid rising cross-strait tensions, New Delhi has avoided statements in forums such as ASEAN, reflecting a strategic calculation to avoid provoking China, especially given unresolved border disputes in the Himalayas. At the same time, India has steadily expanded its engagement with Taiwan. Companies like Foxconn and Pegatron are integral to Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat, and bilateral trade has increased sixfold since 2001. Talks on a free trade agreement and semiconductor cooperation are progressing. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would severely disrupt global supply chains and pose significant economic risks, which India increasingly recognizes. While the July 2025 Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting expressed 'serious concerns' over rising tensions in the East and South China Seas, it refrained from directly condemning China. Strategic and economic divergences within the Quad underscore its central dilemma. The alliance was never designed for collective military action and lacks both the institutional structure and legally binding mutual defense commitments that define NATO. However, China's growing assertiveness over Taiwan and its expanding capabilities demand a more coordinated response. Even as public statements remain measured, the Quad must avoid strategic drift. Coordinated efforts in contingency planning, intelligence sharing, and logistical interoperability need to accelerate. The alliance's credibility, and that of the broader rules-based order, depends on readiness and sustained alignment. China will continue to test the Quad's cohesion, but this also presents an opportunity to forge a more adaptable and politically viable model of deterrence, one rooted in regional awareness, interoperability, and expanding partnerships particularly with ASEAN. Taiwan is no longer a peripheral concern. It has become the crucible in which the Quad's purpose and unity will be tested. As pressure mounts in the Taiwan Strait, the time for strategic ambiguity is narrowing. The stability of the Indo-Pacific may well depend on the Quad's ability to adapt, align, and act with resolve.
NDTV
04-07-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
"Fake News": India Refutes Claims Of US Denying S Jaishankar's Request To Meet Trump
New Delhi: India on Friday refuted claims that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's request to meet US President Donald Trump was denied by the White House due to his busy schedule, terming it as "fake news." In a post on X, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Factcheck unit stated, "CLAIM: White House denies Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar's request to meet Donald Trump due to busy schedule. This is FAKE News. This CLAIM is false." CLAIM: White House denies Indian FM Jaishankar's request to meet Donald Trump due to busy schedule. This is FAKE News. This CLAIM is false. #MEAFactCheck — MEA FactCheck (@MEAFactCheck) July 3, 2025 MEA's statement comes after a user on social media platform X claimed that the White House denied Mr Jaishankar's request to meet Trump due to his "busy schedule." Mr Jaishankar was on an official visit to the US from June 30 - July 2 at the invitation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. During the visit, he participated in the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting (QFMM). In a post on X, Mr Jaishankar stated, "Just finished a very productive meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington DC. Discussed how to make Quad more focused and impactful on contemporary opportunities and challenges. Today's gathering will strengthen strategic stability in the Indo - Pacific and keep it free and open." Mr Jaishankar met with Rubio on the sidelines of QFFM and discussed bilateral partnership between both countries in the field of security, critical technologies, connectivity, energy and mobility. In a social media post, he said that he "shared perspectives on regional and global developments." Mr Jaishankar also held a meeting with FBI Director Kash Patel in Washington DC on Wednesday (local time) and expressed appreciation for cooperation between India and the US in countering organised crime, drug trafficking and terrorism. In his meeting with US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Mr Jaishankar said that the duo had a "good exchange" with her on the global situation and bilateral cooperation. On Tuesday (local time), Mr Jaishankar held a meeting with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington, DC and spoke about the energy transformation underway in India. The two leaders discussed opportunities for a deeper energy partnership between the two nations. The External Affairs Minister also held discussions with US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and held discussion on advancing defence partnership between two nations, building on growing convergences of interests, capabilities and responsibilities. Before arriving in Washington, DC, Mr Jaishankar was in New York, where he inaugurated an exhibition at the United Nations on 'The Human Cost of Terrorism,' highlighting the need to expose state sponsorship of terrorism.
India Gazette
04-07-2025
- Politics
- India Gazette
India refutes claims about White House denying Jaishankar's request to meet Trump
New Delhi [India], July 4 (ANI): India on Friday refuted claims that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's request to meet US President Donald Trump was denied by the White House due to his busy schedule, terming it as 'fake news.' In a post on X, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Factcheck unit stated, 'CLAIM: White House denies Indian FM Jaishankar's request to meet Donald Trump due to busy schedule. This is FAKE News. This CLAIM is false.' MEA's statement comes after a user on social media platform X claimed that the White House denied Jaishankar's request to meet Trump due to his 'busy schedule.' Jaishankar was on an official visit to the US from June 30 - July 2 at the invitation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. During the visit, he participated in the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting (QFMM). In a post on X, Jaishankar stated, 'Just finished a very productive meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington DC. Discussed how to make Quad more focused and impactful on contemporary opportunities and challenges. Today's gathering will strengthen strategic stability in the Indo - Pacific and keep it free and open.' Jaishankar met with Rubio on the sidelines of QFFM and discussed bilateral partnership between both countries in the field of security, critical technologies, connectivity, energy and mobility. In a social media post, he said that he 'shared perspectives on regional and global developments.' Jaishankar also held a meeting with FBI Director Kash Patel in Washington DC on Wednesday (local time) and expressed appreciation for cooperation between India and the US in countering organised crime, drug trafficking and terrorism. In his meeting with US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Jaishankar said that the duo had a 'good exchange' with her on the global situation and bilateral cooperation. On Tuesday (local time), Jaishankar held a meeting with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington, DC and spoke about the energy transformation underway in India. The two leaders discussed opportunities for a deeper energy partnership between the two nations. The External Affairs Minister also held discussions with US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and held discussion on advancing defence partnership between two nations, building on growing convergences of interests, capabilities and responsibilities. Before arriving in Washington, DC, Jaishankar was in New York, where he inaugurated an exhibition at the United Nations on 'The Human Cost of Terrorism,' highlighting the need to expose state sponsorship of terrorism. (ANI)
Time of India
04-07-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
India refutes claims about White House denying Jaishankar's request to meet Trump
India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has dismissed as "fake news" claims that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's request to meet former US President Donald Trump was denied. During his US visit from June 30 to July 2, Jaishankar engaged in several high-level meetings, including the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting, and discussions on security, technology, and counter-terrorism cooperation. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads India on Friday refuted claims that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar 's request to meet US President Donald Trump was denied by the White House due to his busy schedule, terming it as "fake news."In a post on X, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Factcheck unit stated, "CLAIM: White House denies Indian FM Jaishankar's request to meet Donald Trump due to busy schedule. This is FAKE News. This CLAIM is false."MEA's statement comes after a user on social media platform X claimed that the White House denied Jaishankar's request to meet Trump due to his "busy schedule."Jaishankar was on an official visit to the US from June 30 - July 2 at the invitation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. During the visit, he participated in the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting (QFMM).In a post on X, Jaishankar stated, "Just finished a very productive meeting of Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington DC. Discussed how to make Quad more focused and impactful on contemporary opportunities and challenges. Today's gathering will strengthen strategic stability in the Indo - Pacific and keep it free and open."Jaishankar met with Rubio on the sidelines of QFFM and discussed bilateral partnership between both countries in the field of security, critical technologies, connectivity, energy and mobility. In a social media post, he said that he "shared perspectives on regional and global developments."Jaishankar also held a meeting with FBI Director Kash Patel in Washington DC on Wednesday (local time) and expressed appreciation for cooperation between India and the US in countering organised crime, drug trafficking and his meeting with US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Jaishankar said that the duo had a "good exchange" with her on the global situation and bilateral Tuesday (local time), Jaishankar held a meeting with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington, DC and spoke about the energy transformation underway in India. The two leaders discussed opportunities for a deeper energy partnership between the two External Affairs Minister also held discussions with US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and held discussion on advancing defence partnership between two nations, building on growing convergences of interests, capabilities and arriving in Washington, DC, Jaishankar was in New York, where he inaugurated an exhibition at the United Nations on 'The Human Cost of Terrorism,' highlighting the need to expose state sponsorship of terrorism.
Time of India
03-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
After Munir, Pakistan's air force chief in the US. What's happening?
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel For the first time in a decade, Pakistan's Chief of the Air Staff paid an official visit to the US recently to further enhance bilateral defence cooperation. Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu held top-level meetings at the Pentagon, State Department and Capitol Hill to "further enhance bilateral defence cooperation and mutual interest".Coming weeks after Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir's unprecedented lunch with US President Donald Trump , Sidhu's visit signals a possible recalibration in US strategic priorities in the region. Though shrouded in some ambiguity, the optics and timing of these two visits suggest that the US may be seeking a deeper reengagement with Pakistan's military establishment -- a shift that carries significant implications for much of the past decade, US-Pakistan relations have been cold. America's strategic focus shifted decisively toward India as it emerged as a counterweight to China and a central pillar of America's Indo-Pacific strategy . In contrast, Pakistan's deepening military and economic partnership with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), placed it at odds with evolving US strategic the apparent renewal of military-level engagement marks a notable departure. The US hosting Air Chief Marshal Sidhu across its key institutions -- notably ahead of the Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's Washington visit -- appears more than coincidental. Symbolically, it creates an image of equivalence between India and Pakistan, a perception India has consistently sought to renewed interest in Pakistan could be driven by several factors. Pakistan's military has intensified operations against Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), whose regional rise in Afghanistan and spillover into Pakistan represents a shared concern for both Pakistan and the US. As the US recalibrates its counterterrorism posture post-Afghanistan withdrawal, Pakistan remains a geographically critical of Munir's meeting with Trump, with suggestions of discussions around impending US military action against Iran, added another dimension. Amid heightened tensions with Tehran, Pakistan's strategic location and its influence over key border logistics and airspace made it an indispensable years of favouring India in its South Asia calculus, America may now be reintroducing strategic ambiguity. This could serve several purposes such as checking India's drift toward multipolar hedging (for example, its neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict), pushing New Delhi toward more alignment within the Quad, and creating options for leverage in the Indo-Pacific an Indian perspective, the implications of this renewed US-Pakistan engagement are concerning. India has long cherished its emerging special relationship with the US, particularly in defense cooperation, technology transfers and intelligence sharing. If America begins equating Islamabad as a parallel partner in regional military affairs, India's perceived strategic primacy could be Pakistan's civilian institutions weakened and economic distress mounting, any renewed US support, particularly to the military, risks reinforcing the dominant role of the army and air force in Pakistan's political system. A more emboldened Pakistan military, with a sense of external endorsement, could adopt a more aggressive posture toward India, especially in Kashmir or along the Line of Control (LoC). The juxtaposition of hosting Jaishankar and Pakistan's top air force official in parallel engagements sends mixed signals about US commitment to its strategic ties with India and its Indo-Pacific it is too early to see it as a strategic realignment, America's renewed overtures to Pakistan's military leadership mark a significant development. India's economic size and its role in Indo-Pacific maritime security makes it indispensabile to the US global strategy. But it must also prepare for a more competitive regional environment where a Pakistani military backed by the US can play aggressive games.
