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Politico
a day ago
- Politics
- Politico
The Big Polling Question Surrounding Trump and the Epstein Saga
Since then, however, not much has changed. That's why the furor over the administration's handling of the Epstein files is potentially so important. It's not just MAGA leaders and influencers who are upset with the administration — it's rank and file Republicans. Quinnipiac University's latest survey, released July 16, found more than three times as many registered voters disapproved (63 percent) than approved (17 percent) of how the administration has dealt with the Epstein affair. More revealing, Republicans, who normally can be counted on to overwhelmingly back Trump's handling of any issue, were divided: 40 percent approved while 36 percent disapproved and a suspiciously large minority (24 percent) declined to answer. Yet here's the thing: that same survey found that Trump's job rating was virtually unchanged since June, with 40 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving (Quinnipiac polls consistently show lower approval ratings for Trump than do many other surveys). Nor was there any evidence that Trump's image among Republicans had been damaged; 90 percent approved of the way he was doing his job as president. This week's CNN survey also showed no real change in Trump's approval. Clearly, the Epstein controversy is in its early stages and many Americans are still forming their opinions. But it's not occurring within a vacuum: Trump is facing increasing pressure on many other fronts as well. Inflation is creeping back up, the polling on the BBB has been abysmal, and Trump's tariffs may yet jolt the economy again, when (or if) they kick in next month. The backdrop here matters a great deal. Since he was first elected, Trump has never been all that popular, especially when compared with his predecessors. His first-term average approval rating of 41 percent placed him below every other president dating back to Harry S. Truman, according to Gallup Org. Trump barely edged out former president Biden, whose 42 percent average was the second-lowest. His second term ratings also are weaker than those of his past presidents. The main difference among the polls at his 100-day milestone was whether Trump was the least popular modern president ever at that point, or whether his rating was slightly higher than his own lackluster first-term approval mark. However, Trump thus far has also been able to avoid the devastating ratings declines that other presidents have suffered, despite the fact that his approval on specific issues — most notably, immigration and the economy — is in negative territory. Four years ago this month, Joe Biden's presidency ran aground on the twin shoals of Afghanistan and inflation. Prior to that point, his job ratings were consistently above 50 percent; after that, he was mired in negative territory for the rest of his term. Barack Obama, who arrived in office with glittering 60 percent plus job ratings, suffered a sharp ratings falloff during his first year in office. George W. Bush's job approval also fell throughout the first year of his second term.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
How much do Republicans care about the Epstein files? More than it might seem
One of the biggest questions looming over President Donald Trump's second term right now is how much his supporters truly care about the Jeffrey Epstein files. The distinction between caring a lot vs. a little is critical. The former could mean a sustained problem for the president that bleeds into the midterm elections and affects turnout among his typically loyal base. The latter would mean this is likely nothing more than an ugly episode that ultimately fades away. So, now that we've had a chunk of time since the Justice Department released their controversial Epstein memo, how much do Republicans care about all this? A bevy of new polls show they're unhappy with how the Trump administration has handled this scandal and suggest it could be a persistent problem for the GOP. The base is about evenly split on the administration's actions, meaning there's a higher degree of skepticism than we almost ever see with Trump. And that might actually undersell the level of lingering GOP concern. Americans overall are negative — and the GOP is unusually split Multiple polls show widespread dissatisfaction overall with the Trump administration's handling of the matter. Both Reuters-Ipsos and Quinnipiac University polling showed Americans overall disapproved of how the Trump team has handled this by huge margins: 54-17% in the former and 63-17% in the latter. (The former poll's question was about Trump personally, while the latter was about the administration more broadly.) So that's just 17% of Americans who said Trump and the administration have gotten this right, in both polls. The vast majority in that group are, of course, Republicans. But delving into the GOP-specific takeaways, the party is about evenly split — which is unusual on the Trump administration's actions. They leaned slightly towards approving the handling of the Epstein probe, 35-29% in the Reuters-Ipsos poll and 40-36% in the Quinnipiac poll. It's difficult to recall an issue on which Republicans were so lukewarm about major Trump actions. For instance, even shortly after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, an event that led many to conclude that Trump's political career was over, a CNN poll showed Republicans approved of Trump's response by a strong margin: 63-32%. Many Republicans aren't dinging Trump yet — that could change Being disenchanted isn't the same as ditching someone politically, however. Precisely how much people actually care is a critical point. There's some evidence that Republicans are downplaying the significance of this. A new CBS News-YouGov poll released Sunday, for instance, showed just 11% of Republicans said Epstein-related issues matter 'a lot' in their evaluation of Trump's presidency. That's compared to 36% of overall voters who said that. To the extent that's true, it would seem this is something Trump could move past. But polling has a persistent weakness: Respondents aren't always totally honest with themselves or pollsters. For instance, ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, the conventional wisdom was that Democrats' focus on democracy after the January 6 attack wasn't panning out and that the issue might even spur GOP turnout. The results ultimately showed that the issue was a significant benefit to Democrats, and election-denying Republicans did significantly worse than other Republicans. On Epstein, the CBS-YouGov poll suggests there are gaps between how much people say they care about the issue vs. what their other feelings or behavior reveals. While it showed 50% of Republicans said they were at least somewhat satisfied with the administration's Epstein actions, 83% of polled Republicans said the Justice Department should release all the information it has on Epstein — something the Trump administration has decidedly not done. (The administration late last week moved in court to unseal grand jury testimony. But that's only a small portion of the information, and much of it could remain secret.) The same poll also showed 90% of Republicans believed the Epstein files probably includes damaging information about wealthy or powerful people. Similarly, the Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Republicans said 55-17% that they believed the federal government is hiding information about Epstein's death, and 62-11% that it is hiding information about his clients. Those responses suggest Republicans aren't happy with the administration's meager disclosures, even if they're not looking to register that dissatisfaction when explicitly asked. Trump's support is very lukewarm The polling also reveals that even many of those who stand by Trump aren't doing so with a high degree of confidence. While the Reuters-Ipsos poll showed Republicans were about split on Trump's actions; only 11% 'strongly' approved of Trump's actions. And while half of Republicans in the CBS-YouGov poll said they were at least somewhat satisfied with the Trump administration's actions, just 10% were 'very' satisfied. That's only about 1 in 10 Republicans who look at this and say they completely sign off. The CBS-YouGov poll also showed MAGA Republicans were more likely to lean towards being satisfied (60% were at least 'somewhat' satisfied) than non-MAGA Republicans (41%). So are MAGA Republicans — the ones who have vociferously called for releasing more information on Epstein — more satisfied than their non-MAGA breathren? Or are they just feeling compelled to toe the Trump party line, at least somewhat? Regardless, those numbers don't mean this won't be a problem with a significant section of Trump's base. Those voters could sour on him, at least somewhat, perhaps in combination with other recent Trump actions they don't love, like on the war in Ukraine. A Wall Street Journal report last week on a letter Trump allegedly wrote for Epstein's 50th birthday back in 2003 appeared to unite even many Epstein-focused influencers behind Trump and against the media, their frequent common enemy. Trump denied he wrote the letter and has sued the Journal; his base seems to largely believe he's being railroaded. But that doesn't mean they're satisfied overall and ready to let the issue go. The data suggest that, for now, this remains a minefield for Trump.
New York Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Sean Hannity urges others to move to ‘Free State of Florida' if Mamdani is elected
Fox News host Sean Hannity has claimed there will be a 'mass exodus' out of the state of New York if Democrat Zohran Mamdani is elected as the city's mayor in November—warning that many companies will choose to relocate to Florida in order to avoid 'burdensome regulations and high taxes.' Hannity, 63, who himself moved to the Sunshine State from New York in January, made the claims during an appearance on his fiancée Ainsley Earhardt's show, 'Fox & Friends,' during which he discussed the Democratic party's plummeting approval rating. According to a new poll by Quinnipiac University, 72% of voters disapprove of the Democrats in Congress, while just 19% gave the party a positive rating. However, the numbers were not much better for congressional Republicans, who received a 62% disapproval rating from voters. 5 Fox News host Sean Hannity has claimed there will be a 'mass exodus' out of the state of New York if Democrat Zohran Mamdani is elected as the city's mayor in November on 'Fox & Friends.' Fox News While sharing his views on the rating—which he noted is at an all-time low—Hannity suggested that it may be related to the political party's choice of spokespeople, mocking the likes of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the other members of a group known as 'the squad,' before taking aim at Mamdani. Mamdani, 33, who won the Democratic mayoral primary in June, is now being largely viewed as one of the leading new voices of his political party—however, Hannity claimed that his policies will likely lead to many New York residents fleeing the state, suggesting that his fellow Fox News hosts may want to get ahead of the trend by joining him in Florida. 'If they want to go with Mamdani as the Mayor of New York City, I invite you all to come and broadcast your show as I do, originate your show in the free state of Florida,' he said. 'Because there is going to be a mass exodus out of the state of New York the likes of which we have never seen.' 5 Mamdani won the Democratic mayoral primary in June. Getty Images Addressing the impact on New York City's economy, the Fox News host went on to warn that many businesses have already made the decision to set up bases in Florida—and will likely turn even more attention to the Southern state in the event of a Mamdani victory in November's mayoral election. 'What a lot of people don't know—and it's a pretty fascinating phenomenon—is that Wall Street South is already here,' he added. 'All these companies, they don't just have offices in Southern Florida, no, they've got half their companies down here now. 'The reason is because of burdensome regulation, high taxes, they've chased them out. And they're just going to pick up and leave completely now.' 5 'Wall Street South is already here,' Hannity said about companies moving from New York to Florida. 'All these companies, they don't just have offices in Southern Florida, no, they've got half their companies down here now.' TTstudio – When asked about Mamdani's fellow mayoral candidates, Hannity urged Fox News viewers not to count out Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, claiming that there may still be a 'lane' for him in the election, particularly given that independent runner Andrew Cuomo is closing in on Mamdani in the polls. 'So, Mamdani's numbers have been going down. It looked like it might have been a slam dunk in the beginning—I'm not so sure,' he said, before calling attention to the fact that there are three other left-leaning politicians in the race: Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Jim Walden, which may prove to be of benefit to Sliwa. 5 'Mamdani's numbers have been going down. It looked like it might have been a slam dunk in the beginning—I'm not so sure,' Hannity said. Paul Martinka 'Cuomo is definitely leading in terms of coming into second place. But you've got three leftists on the ticket besides Mamdani and, sorry, Eric Adams is not polling particularly well, [although] I know there's going to be a lot of money thrown in his direction,' Hannity said. 'But if all three of them stay in the race and Mamdani stays in the race, I do believe—it's an outside shot—but it does create a lane for Curtis Sliwa, who has been a longtime friend of mine. He really is Mr. New York, he loves New York City.' Hannity went on to describe Sliwa as a 'Giuliani 2.0,' referring to Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump's disgraced former attorney who served as Mayor between 1994 and 2001. Start and end your day informed with our newsletters Morning Report and Evening Update: Your source for today's top stories Thanks for signing up! Enter your email address Please provide a valid email address. By clicking above you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Never miss a story. Check out more newsletters The conservative pundit noted that Sliwa has a 'very hard' road ahead of him, given New York City's long-standing affiliation with the Democratic party, but insisted that if the left is split between multiple candidates, the Republican candidate could still have a shot at a win. Earhardt and Hannity went on to discuss Mamdani's 'socialist, Marxist' policies, with the latter describing them as 'madness' and 'insanity.' Though Hannity believes that a Mamdani victory in the election would prompt a 'mass exodus' from New York, real estate experts have insisted that it's too early to begin making those kind of predictions—particularly when it comes to the city's wealthiest residents. 5 Hannity discussed Mamdani's 'socialist, Marxist' policies, describing them as 'madness' and 'insanity.' Getty Images Luxury real estate broker Donna Olshan told earlier this month that, while she has received some 'nervous calls' from her clients, she believes it's highly unlikely that long-term residents will simply up and leave New York and move elsewhere. 'It's way too early to see how this will affect the luxury market in Manhattan,' Olshan said earlier this month. 'Have I gotten nervous calls? Yes, but at the end of the day, most people are not going to pick up roots and move somewhere else because they don't like the mayor and are afraid of the direction the city will go in.' Still, Mamdani's policies are already influencing the New York City real estate market, with Olshan revealing that right after the primary, a buyer submitted a low offer on an apartment she was representing—in an attempt to secure a 'Mamadani discount.' 'I thought this was ironic,' Olshan adds. 'They were perfectly happy to live in New York City—even with Mamdani—if they could get a discount on an apartment.' And while Manhattan residents may have previously looked to places like Palm Beach as an alternative home base, figures show that these trends have changed. Instead, city dwellers who want to leave the Big Apple are now seeking alternative residences in places much closer to home, like Suffolk and Nassau. 'It appears that more Manhattan residents are interested in staying within the New York City metro, but outside the city proper,' senior economist Joel Berner said.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
63 percent disapprove of Trump administration handling of Epstein files: Poll
More than 6 in 10 voters in a new poll (63 percent) disapprove of how the Trump administration handled its investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Just 17 percent of voters surveyed in the Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday said they were satisfied with the Department of Justice's (DOJ) conclusions that Epstein kept no client list and died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges in 2019. Twenty percent had no opinion. Republicans, who have long fueled conspiracies about Epstein's associates and his death, were split — the poll found 40 percent approved of how the Trump administration carried out the probe, 36 percent disapproved and 24 percent had no opinion. Meanwhile, Democrats and independents overwhelmingly said they disapproved, at 83 percent and 71 percent, respectively. 'Epstein has been dead and gone for years but his tawdry legacy looms large in a country wanting to know more about who he knew and whether secrets have been buried with him,' Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. President Trump on Wednesday blasted supporters who have pushed for more information about Epstein's case after the FBI and DOJ revealed that their probe had ended with no new conclusions. 'Some stupid Republicans and foolish Republicans fall into the net, and so they try and do the Democrats' work,' Trump told reporters Wednesday. 'I call it the Epstein hoax. Takes a lot of time and effort. 'Instead of talking about the great achievements we've had … they're wasting their time with a guy who obviously had some very serious problems, who died three, four years ago,' he added. Additionally, 62 percent of voters surveyed in the new Quinnipiac poll said they had been 'somewhat' or 'closely' following news about the Epstein case. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,290 registered voters across the country July 10-14. The poll has a 2.7-point margin of error. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Solve the daily Crossword
Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
'Money isn't enough': 'America Party' crashes before takeoff; Americans want alternative but don't see Musk's party as option
Elon Musk launched the America Party on July 5 Elon Musk's plans to launch a new political party appear doomed before they've even begun, with multiple polls showing overwhelming public opposition and record-low favourability ratings for the billionaire entrepreneur. The so-called "America Party," which Musk teased after a fallout with former buddy and US President Donald Trump, has been met with a major thumbs-down from the American public. According to a CNN poll, just 25% of all adults and 22% of registered voters support the idea of Musk forming a third party to rival Democrats and Republicans. A staggering 74% of adults and 77% of voters are opposed. These numbers suggest that Americans may be open to alternatives beyond the two major parties, but Musk is not the person they want leading that charge. Polls deliver a Blow The CNN poll is not alone in its findings. A separate poll by Quinnipiac University also showed that most people don't support Musk's idea of starting a new political party. It found only 17% of voters would consider supporting Musk's new party. More than 77% rejected the idea entirely. Musk himself has become much less popular in the past few years. According to CNN's data, just 23% of Americans view him favourably, while 60% view him unfavourably, giving him a net approval rating of -37 points. CNN put it: 'That gives Musk a net favourable rating of -37 percentage points. Oof.' Although other polls have been slightly less harsh, the overall picture remains grim. 'Musk is just the wrong guy to lead such a journey,' the report notes. 'He is, as I said at the top, one of the most unpopular political figures in the country.' This marks a sharp decline from 2016, when Musk had a net favourable rating of +29 points, making him one of the most admired figures in the Bloomberg poll at the time. Third parties, and their little to no chance of succeeding Historically, third-party efforts in the US have struggled to gain traction. No independent has ever won the presidency, except George Washington, but that was before the modern party system existed. In 1968, George Wallace was the last third-party candidate to win a single state in a presidential race. Since 1970, there have been over 13,000 congressional elections, and non-major party candidates have won just 24 of them. Most of those wins came from independents like Bernie Sanders and Angus King. Even Ross Perot, a billionaire like Musk, had a hard time. Despite gaining nearly 20% of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election and forming the Reform Party, the movement soon lost steam. Perot's party reached its peak in 1998 when Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. Today, the party is all but forgotten. Back in 1993, a CNN poll found that 50% of Americans supported Perot's third party, while 37% opposed. In stark contrast, Musk faces 77% of Americans opposing his party from the outset. The more they see Musk, the less they like him Even with poor poll numbers, Musk's political plans still grab attention because of his huge wealth and influence. Unlike most other third-party candidates, he has the money to run big campaigns and get media coverage. 'Many third parties fail because they can't get their message out. Musk's party wouldn't have that problem,' CNN noted. 'But money isn't enough.' Adding to his challenges is the fact that Musk is ineligible to run for president, having been born in South Africa. 'The more Americans see of Musk in politics, the less they like him,' CNN said. 'Musk's unpopularity makes the normally very difficult efforts to start a third party become herculean.'
