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Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
TSX edge higher; US tariff deadline approaches
Canada's main stock index edged higher on Friday, buoyed by gains in real estate stocks, while concerns over U.S. trade deals ahead of the looming July 9 tariff deadline weighed on sentiment. The S&P/TSX composite index hit a fresh record high and was last up 0.1% at 27055.24 points. The index was on track to log a weekly gain. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the United States. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump are aiming to reach some form of trade deal by July 21. 'The threat of further global tariffs remains… but the most severely negative global trade scenarios still look less likely than they did a few months ago,' economists at RBC Economics said in a note. Data on Friday showed Greater Toronto Area home sales rose for a third straight month in June and prices extended their recent decline. TSX hits record high as investors assess economic data, trade talks On the TSX, real estate stocks led sectoral gains, rising 1.4%. Allied Properties up 2%, Dream Industrial REIT advanced 1.6%, among the top gainers on the benchmark index. Mining shares edged 0.1% higher, energy shares were flat. Copper prices retreated on Friday. Copper miners Capstone Copper down 1.3% and Ero Copper down 1.1%, were among the bottom performers on the main index. S&P's Canada services PMI data on Friday showed that Canada's services economy contracted at a higher rate in June with U.S. trade policy uncertainty leading to decreased activity and increased cost pressures, Meanwhile, Trump's tax-cut legislation cleared its final hurdle in the U.S. Congress on Thursday, with plans to sign it into law later in the day.
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff war: Canada expected to keep NAFTA 2.0 'carve-out' in new U.S. trade deal
A new Canada-U.S. trade deal will likely carry forward the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) tariff exemptions shielding most Canadian exports from American tariffs today, says Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins. She's optimistic that Canada can avoid the economic hit that may be in store for other U.S. trading partners. U.S. President Donald Trump has set July 9 as the deadline for countries to ink a trade deal in order to avoid his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, many of which are higher than the baseline 10 per cent levy the White House has applied to most countries. For Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed on the sidelines of the recent G7 meeting in Alberta to strike a deal by July 21. 'Our baseline view assumes that at a minimum, we continue to operate with our CUSMA carve-outs. Meaning, the vast majority of Canadian goods that we sell into the U.S. will continue to be tariff-free,' Desjardins told Yahoo Finance Canada in an interview earlier this week. 'The sounds we're hearing seem to be moving in the right direction. Obviously, [I have] no inside information. It's just an assumption that we will not be severely hit by 25 per cent tariffs across the board.' While Trump has ramped up tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as the auto sector, economists say Canada achieved the lowest U.S. tariff rate among major trade partners when CUSMA-compliant goods were exempted on April 2. On Wednesday, RBC Economics estimated that roughly 86 per cent of Canadian exports should ultimately be able to access the U.S. market duty free under current trade rules. RBC expects the share of CUSMA-compliant trade to rise rapidly from 50 per cent in March. Trump signed CUSMA, also known as United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, into U.S. law on Jan. 29, 2020. The deal was dubbed 'NAFTA 2.0' or 'New NAFTA,' as it replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement implemented in 1994. 'I'm a little surprised that we were already front and centre in terms of the initial tariffs being applied to Canada, given that we have that trade agreement,' Desjardins said. 'The element of trust that we have with our biggest trading partner has been quite damaged by this.' Deloitte Canada's latest economic forecast, published on Wednesday, calls for that damage to result in a 'modest recession' in the second and third quarters of the year. Ontario and Quebec are due to be hardest hit, given their weight in the manufacturing sector. Statistics Canada's latest GDP reading shows the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in the first quarter. Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada warned the economy will be "substantially weaker" in the second quarter of 2025, versus the start of the year as the full impact of U.S. import tariffs hits Canadian businesses. Deloitte sees Canada's real GDP growth rising 1.1 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 1.6 per cent in 2026. 'As we move forward, and we have more clarity, whatever clarity looks like, but more clarity on our relationship with the U.S., and how the [Canadian] government is actually going to get into action, these are going to be the things that lift us as we go into 2026,' Desjardins said. Canadians will have to wait until the federal government's fall budget for more details on Carney's plans to spend billions on building housing inventory, advancing infrastructure projects, and investing in Canada's military. 'There's a lot in the hopper,' Desjardins added. 'There are just so many underlying factors at this stage that could have either a temporary or short-term impact, or be more persistent.' Deloitte Canada's optimistic take on rebuilding Canada-U.S. trade links comes on the heels of a similar analysis by the Canadian arm of fellow accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) released last week. 'Canada is maybe in the best position of any other country,' Michael Dobner, PwC Canada's national leader of economics and policy practice, told Yahoo Finance Canada last Tuesday. 'The negotiation between Canada and the U.S. may further cement Canada's position over other countries as an exporter to the U.S.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's economy charged ahead in the first quarter of 2025 as exporters sought to get ahead of tariffs
Canada's economy grew 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada said on Friday. That maintained the pace recorded in the final quarter of last year and significantly exceeded estimates. In a note following the data release, CIBC economist Andrew Grantham cautioned that while real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was "solid," the number was "flattered by a surge in exports as companies looked to front-run potential US tariffs." Economists had expected the economy to grow 1.5 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter, according to consensus estimates published by RBC Economics. Grantham noted "weak" domestic demand in the quarter, with "only slight upward momentum heading into Q2." Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in March, matching expectations. The quarterly growth came in above the Bank of Canada's forecasts. The central bank expected real GDP to grow 1.8 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis, according to its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Friday data also include a revision to fourth quarter 2024 growth, which at the time came in above expectations, adjusting the figure from 2.6 per cent to 2.1 per cent. This story will be updated. John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's economy grew 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025: Statistics Canada
Canada's economy grew 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada said on Friday, maintaining the pace recorded in the final quarter of last year. Economists had expected the economy to grow 1.5 per cent on an annualized basis in the first quarter, according to consensus estimates published by RBC Economics. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1 per cent in March, matching expectations. The quarterly growth came in above the Bank of Canada's forecasts. The central bank expected real GDP to grow 1.8 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis, according to its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Friday data follow fourth quarter 2024 results that came in above expectations, driven by higher spending and increased business investment and exports. This story will be updated. John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Sign in to access your portfolio
Calgary Herald
22-05-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Canadian housing market 'cracks' under weight of trade headwinds
Trade war trauma is taking its toll on Canada's housing market, a new report from RBC Economics has found. The study, released earlier in May, pointed to slowdowns in activity, reflecting a 'crack' in major markets' stability, particularly in Canada's most expensive municipalities in Southern Ontario and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Article content Article content In Vancouver, for example, April resales were down year over year by nearly 24 per cent, and in Fraser Valley, sales fell more than 29 per cent. Article content Article content Toronto saw its sales in April drop about 23 per cent. Activity in both Vancouver and Toronto in April were at their lowest levels since the spring of 2020, the report noted. Article content Article content Alberta did not escape the headwinds for demand either, the report found. Calgary resales fell 22 per cent year over year in April, and sales were down 13 per cent in Edmonton. Article content Calgary resales remain about at the average level of the last decade, though well below the record-setting pandemic peak. Article content Only Montreal, the only other city in the study, saw sales growth, increasing about 10 per cent year over year. Even there, RBC has predicted its market will eventually shift to favouring buyers. Article content Prices are also being weighed down. Article content In Toronto, the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Housing Price Index (HPI) shows the price has fallen more than four per cent since December. RBC Economics added it forecasts prices to fall more if trade worries persist in Ontario. Article content
