Latest news with #RJOFutures
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Safe-haven gold firms on elevated trade tensions
Trump announces 50% US tariffs on copper, Brazilian imports US weekly jobless claims fall unexpectedly in latest week (Updates prices for US early-morning session) By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Mukherjee July 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday as rising trade tensions steered market participants toward the safety of bullion, though gains were limited by an uptick in the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,326.48 per ounce by 1307 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,335.10. "I think generally the whole metals complex is up because of the knock-on effects of copper being tariffed," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "However, there is limited upside seen unless a significant geopolitical escalation occurs." U.S. President Donald Trump launched a further tariff assault on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1. There is a "rising appeal for gold among emerging economy nations, which see the metal's counterparty-free qualities as attractive in a world burdened by persistent geopolitical risk," Paul Wong, Market Strategist at Sprott Asset Management said in a note. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed only "a couple" of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, with most policymakers remaining worried about the inflationary pressure they expect to come from tariffs. Limiting price upside, the U.S. dollar index drifted 0.2% higher. Gold tends to lose appeal when the U.S. dollar strengthens, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies. On the data front, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting employers may be holding on to workers despite other indications of a cooling labor market. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $36.82 per ounce. "Breaking above the $35 level increases the likelihood of reaching the $40 target," Wong added. Platinum gained 0.3% to $1,350.95, and palladium climbed 3.5% to $1,144.40. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)
Business Recorder
26-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold dips as geopolitical tensions ease
NEW YORK: Gold prices eased on Wednesday as a ceasefire between Iran and Israel reduced safe-haven demand, while market participants stayed cautious ahead of key US economic data. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,314.45 per ounce at 0934 a.m. EDT (1334 GMT) after prices hit their lowest in over two weeks in the previous session. US gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,328.10. With all the momentum and potential in the markets, the factors that typically drive gold never pushed it to new highs, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures 'So, I think the path is now more to the downside; it may hit $2,900 if things don't escalate in the Middle East.' US President Donald Trump revelled in the swift end to war between Iran and Israel, saying he now expected a relationship with Tehran that would preclude rebuilding its nuclear programme. Wall Street's S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rose on Wednesday, hovering near a record peak. Investors are also looking out for the second day of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony, scheduled to start at 10:00 a.m. ET. On Tuesday, Powell emphasized that a rate cut decision can only be taken after observing the affect of tariffs, inflation and weakness in the labour market. The US GDP and jobs data are due on Thursday, while the Price Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data is scheduled to be released on Friday, which traders are closely monitoring to gauge the Fed's future policy path better. The market currently sees an over 85% chance of a rate cut in September. Bullion tends to do well during periods of uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver shed 0.3% to $35.79, platinum lost 0.8% to $1,305.74, while palladium dropped 1.8% to $1,046.73.
Business Recorder
14-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold prices advance as Israel-Iran escalation fuels safe-haven bids
LONDON: Gold prices soared on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets following Israeli air strikes on Iran, re-igniting fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Spot gold rose 1.7% at $3,439.79 an ounce as of 0923 EDT (1323 GMT), coming within striking distance of its record high of $3,500.05 set in April. Prices gained more than 4% so far this week. US gold futures added 1.7% to $3,461. 'Israel knocking out Iranian targets is causing a little bit of geopolitical scare in the market. Prices will stay elevated in the anticipation of what is to come, the retaliation by Iran,' said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Israel launched a barrage of strikes across Iran on Friday, saying it had attacked nuclear facilities and missile factories and killed a swathe of military commanders in what could be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran building an atomic weapon. US President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting a US ultimatum in talks to restrict its nuclear program. Softer US inflation prints earlier this week added extra shine to gold, bolstering expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Bullion is widely regarded as a safe asset, especially during times of economic turmoil and geopolitical unrest. It also tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that structurally strong central bank buying will raise the gold price to $3,700/toz by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. BofA sees a path for gold to rally to $4,000/oz over the next 12 months. On the physical front, demand in major Asian hubs weakened this week as rates soared, with prices in India zooming past the psychologically important 100,000-rupee mark. Spot silver eased 0.3% at $36.24 per ounce, gaining nearly 1% for the week. Platinum fell 3.9% to $1,244.91 and was up 6.3% for the week. Palladium fell 0.3% to $1,052.28 but added 0.7% so far this week.
Yahoo
14-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold and oil prices have a message for investors about Iran tensions
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been rising, but the big moves in gold and oil prices can help gauge just how serious the situation has become — and hint at what's next for global financial markets. 'Gold and oil are two of the most geopolitical-sensitive market barometers we have,' said John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Given that, they are the 'first places I look when geopolitical risks arise in the Middle East.' My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next. Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? And those risks have certainly been climbing. On Thursday, Iran said it would soon open a third uranium-enrichment site, even as negotiations with the U.S. over a nuclear deal are expected to continue Sunday. President Donald Trump has said he is less confident about reaching a deal with Tehran and that he could take military action against Iran if negotiations fail, according to the Wall Street Journal. Israel appears to be preparing an attack on Iran's nuclear sites, the New York Times reported Wednesday, and fears of potential retaliation across the region by Tehran appeared to prompt the U.S. to withdraw diplomatic personnel from Iraq and authorize the departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East. What sets this escalation apart from prior flare-ups is that 'it's being taken more seriously by the market — evidenced by the U.S. decision to relocate nonmilitary personnel from the region, which suggests this is more than just rhetorical posturing,' said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth in New York. 'Israel is more emboldened to act unilaterally,' she told MarketWatch. 'Unlike in previous years, there's a real risk that Israel could strike Iran without direct U.S. support if talks collapse.' Geopolitical risk premium in crude had been 'minimal' until recently, Babin said, with markets having been 'increasingly optimistic that an interim deal would be reached, and analysts had started softening [oil] balance forecasts under the assumption that Iranian exports might remain stable.' At the same time, crude sentiment has remained 'deeply bearish,' with many investors short oil as a 'broader play on weakening global demand,' Babin added. 'This combination of low embedded risk premium and high geopolitical uncertainty creates a fragile setup where even modest escalation could cause outsized market reactions.' Against that backdrop, prices for both gold and oil have been making some big moves. On Thursday, the August gold contract GCQ25 GC00 gained $58.70, or 1.8%, to settle at $3,402.40 an ounce on Comex, nearing the record settlement for a front-month contract of $3,425.30 from April 21, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil, meanwhile, saw U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN25 CL.1 edge down by 11 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $68.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, after a 4.9% rise on Wednesday. Global benchmark Brent crude for August delivery BRNQ25 BRN00 lost 41 cents, or 0.6%, to end at $69.36 on ICE Futures Europe, a day after climbing 4.3%. In energy markets, the developments tied to Iran were priced in almost immediately, said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, in a recent note, with Brent crude climbing Wednesday from its 50-day moving average near $66 a barrel. Traders are concerned about the risk of oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, he said. That's the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the strait in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 'The geopolitical premium remains pronounced,' said Assiri. Brent prices eased back Thursday, but only modestly from Wednesday's rise, and prices are 'undeterred by broader headwinds such as trade tariffs and their dampening effect on global growth, or OPEC+ production increases led by Saudi Arabia, which appears intent on boosting market share,' he said. 'Taken together, these factors signal genuine concern over a potential resurgence of instability in the Middle East,' Assiri said. 'Geopolitical risk has been vaulted back to the forefront after a period of relative easing following earlier positive developments in the region.' For oil, future performance hinges on two primary drivers, he noted. First, the 'inherently unpredictable geopolitical dynamic, now leveraged as a bargaining chip by the U.S. administration, demands close monitoring since shift in diplomatic posture or regional tensions could alter the supply outlook,' said Assiri. The economic backdrop is the second primary driver, as oil demand appears stronger than anticipated a month ago, 'supported by ongoing signals of global growth and only muted inflationary impact from tariffs,' he said. The direct effects of tariffs on inflation have so far been limited, 'reducing the odds of a recession scenario relative to prior forecasts,' he added — underpinning continued growth in oil demand that outstrips consensus expectations. Overall, the 'interplay' between geopolitical maneuvering and underlying demand strength suggests that oil-market dynamics will remain 'prone to swings and traders should factor in the likelihood of volatility tied to shifts in regional risk,' said Assiri. For gold, of course, it's a 'flight-to-safety trade,' RJO Futures' Caruso said. If there is 'military action [instead of] diplomacy' on Iran, then gold, as well as oil, could go much higher. Geopolitical concerns are tailwinds for gold, along with falling Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar DXY, said Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest. He warned, however, that Middle East tensions have a tendency to 'come and go quickly, and if that happens again, gold's spike may be short-lived.' Armbruster said he 'would not buy gold just because of Iran.' The Middle East is a 'nice narrative for gold, but investors are likely to buy at tops if they are chasing headlines,' he noted. Altavest believes a better buying opportunity could emerge in gold in the coming weeks, he added, as data forecast a 'reflationary environment' in June — with reflation equaling a reacceleration in growth and inflation. Long term, Armbruster said the firm is still bullish on gold and is 'simply on the lookout for a dip for our clients to add to their long gold position.' Taking a look at the bigger picture, Caruso said he's not seeing much of a 'risk-off' play in the markets at this point — but if the U.S.-Iran dispute escalates, 'we'll surely see the risk-off, safe-haven trade in effect.' 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Gundlach says gold is no longer for lunatics as the bond king says wait to buy the 30-year 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prices edge down as traders monitor US-China talks
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders closely monitored U.S.-China talks, the outcome of which could simmer down trade tensions and boost the global economy, lessening demand for safe-haven assets, while a rising U.S. dollar added pressure. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,324.55 an ounce as of 1402 EDT (1802 GMT) and U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $3,343.40. The dollar index rose 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. USD/ "Over the last several sessions, we've seen gold retrace a bit off the recent highs, mostly done on the back of optimism in regards to the expectations of negotiations between China and the U.S., UK and Russia," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the talks with China were going well and expected to last all day as the two sides met for a second day in London, seeking a breakthrough on export controls that have threatened a fresh rupture between the superpowers. A trade deal could dampen gold's appeal as a safe haven, since it tends to thrive amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainty as a store of value. "(Investors are) waiting for a pullback to happen, like around $3,100 an ounce, but right now it's just wait and see on what comes out of the China talks," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Investors are also keenly awaiting U.S. Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. Spot silver was down 0.5% to $36.53 per ounce. Platinum eased 0.5% to $1,213.08, after hitting its highest level since May 2021. Palladium lost 1.2% to $1,061.85. "The rally in platinum has been supported by a combination of supply concerns, speculative interest and a broader uplift across the precious metals complex," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. "Palladium is lagging primarily due to its narrower demand base and weaker investment appeal."
