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Business Standard
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Reliance Industries' solar leap prompts Nuvama's highest-ever target price
RIL in focus: Domestic brokerage Nuvama Institutional Equities (Nuvama) has raised its target price on oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to ₹1,801—the second highest on Dalal Street after Mirae Asset Securities (Buy, ₹1,950, 14/10/2024). The upgrade by Nuvama reflects RIL's foray into external sales of high-efficiency solar modules and the major growth potential of its rapidly expanding New Energy business. The brokerage expects these developments to add majorly to profits and drive a re-rating akin to the market response during the RJio rollout in 2017. At the core of this upgrade is RIL's recent commencement of sales of heterojunction technology (HJT) solar modules, a move confirmed during the company's latest analyst meet. 'We forecast it shall add 6 per cent to PAT (a la Tata Power) and shine out a huge valuation kicker (Waaree/Premier),' Nuvama noted in its report. The brokerage also highlighted strong parallels with listed peers. 'Drawing comparison with Waaree's (13.3/5.4GW)/Premier's (4/3.2GW) solar module/cell capacity, whose enterprise value (EV) is about $10/6 billion, RIL's 20GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could command a much higher EV. Waaree/Premier is trading at 14x/15x FY27E EV/Ebitda; ascribing 15x EV/Ebitda to RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of $20 billion, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL—similar to the trend seen post-RJio's launch in 2017," the brokerage explained. Beyond solar, RIL's ambitions span across the green energy spectrum. The company is in the process of building a 30GWh battery storage facility and has entered a technology tie-up with Nel ASA for electrolyser manufacturing, the brokerage noted. Green hydrogen and 55 compressed biogas (CBG) plants are also part of the roadmap. 'At its AGM in August 2024, RIL had guided for a remarkable surge in the New Energy business… with expectation of its profitability equalling O2C profitability in the next five–seven years,' the report said. Currently, the O2C (Oil-to-Chemicals) segment accounts for over half of RIL's attributable PAT and around 40 per cent of Ebitda. The New Energy business, as per Nuvama, has the potential to add '50 per cent-plus to consolidated PAT' by FY30, dramatically reshaping the group's profit mix. With visibility improving on both profitability and integration in the New Energy vertical, Nuvama urges investors to 'watch out for the upcoming AGM in August/September,' which may further flesh out this transformational roadmap. The brokerage reiterated its 'Buy' rating on RIL, driven by 'potential for higher-than-expected module profits' and the valuation re-rating opportunity.
India Gazette
30-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
Reliance Jio set to become global leader in fixed wireless access as per subscriber base: ICICI Securities Report
Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], June 30 (ANI): Reliance Jio (RJio) is on track to become the World's largest Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) service provider as per the number of subscribers by the end of June 2025, according to a report by ICICI Securities. The report is based on the latest subscriber data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) for May 2025. The report stated, 'RJio on path to be dominant FWA player by subs globally'. It also noted that RJio's FWA subscriber base reached 5.9 million in May 2025. After adjusting for the UBR (Ultra Broadband Router) reclassification, the net additions stood at 0.74 million for the month. Including UBR subscribers, RJio's total FWA user base reached 6.88 million. This puts it ahead of T-Mobile, whose FWA subscriber count stood at 6.85 million as of March 2025. With this growth, RJio is poised to become the dominant FWA player globally by subscriber base. The report also highlighted that the overall industry saw an addition of 7.4 million active subscribers in May 2025. RJio led the growth, adding 5.5 million active subscribers, taking its total active base to 462 million. This comes after a period of stagnation following the tariff hikes in July 2024. RJio's total subscriber base rose by 2.7 million to 475 million in May. With this growth, RJio's active subscriber market share increased by 16 basis points (bps) month-on-month to 42.8 per cent. In comparison, Bharti Airtel's active market share declined by 13 bps to 35.8 per cent, and Vodafone Idea (VIL) saw a drop of 23 bps to 16 per cent. In terms of mobile broadband (MBB), excluding FWA, the report added that RJio's subscriber base grew by an average of 2.3 million per month between December 2024 and May 2025, reaching 475 million. When adjusted for inactive users, RJio's MBB market share stood at 50.8 per cent, up 20 bps compared to November 2024. Bharti's MBB market share also rose to 32 per cent, up 30 bps during the same period, while VIL's share dropped to 13.9 per cent, down 20 bps. The consistent growth in both active subscribers and FWA connections shows that RJio is becoming a major force in the global telecom landscape. (ANI)
Time of India
29-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
‘Reliance Jio may become dominant FWA provider by June-end, ahead of T-Mobile'
NEW DELHI: Reliance Jio is expected to become a dominant fixed wireless access (FWA) service provider by subscribers globally by the end of June, ahead of rival Bharti Airtel and US telecom carrier T-Mobile , according to ICICI Securities. The Mukesh Ambani-led telco gained 1.03 million 5G FWA customers in June, taking its total base to 5.85 million. By comparison, Airtel gained 182,458 customers, taking its user base to 1.54 million, according to the industry data collated by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) for May. The sector regulator has reclassified users of FWA-UBR (Fixed Wireless Access Unlicensed Band Radio) as fixed wireline customers. 'Industry FWA (excluding UBR) stood at 7.4 million with RJio's FWA subs at 5.9 million, and adjusted for UBR reclassification, net add was an impressive 0.74 million in May 2025. RJio's FWA (including UBR) stood at 6.88 million. This, compared to T-Mobile (US player, and had largest FWA subs base globally), FWA subs base was at 6.85 million in March 2025 (quarter),' the brokerage said in a research note on Sunday, which ETTelecom has reviewed. 'We believe RJio is path to become dominant player by subs for FWA globally by end-June 2025. Bharti's FWA subs rose 0.18 million to 1.5 million in May 2025; and Bharti is also scaling its FWA services to monetise the rising demand for fixed broadband in India,' it added. Jio and Airtel have seen a rapid uptake of their respective 5G fixed broadband services since the commercial launch in 2023. 5G FWA is also seen as a significant revenue-generation opportunity for the telcos, given the low penetration of wired broadband in India and a rise in data consumption. ICICI estimated that the wired broadband (including FWA) subsribers base rose at an average of 1.8 million per month over December 2024 to May 2025 to 51.5 million, representing a 24.6% year-on-year growth. 'Bharti's subs increase 0.29mn/month to 10.8mn. RJio added 0.66mn subs/month, now at 19.4mn. Other operators' subs base has been largely stable,' it said. According to ICICI, Jio's wired broadband (including FWA) market share rose to 37.6% in May 2025, compared to 34% in November 2024. During the same period, Airtel's share rose from about 20% to 21%, while state-controlled Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited's (BSNL) user base remained the same at 4.3 million but its market share fell from 10.3% in November 2024 to 8.4% in May 2025. Swedish telecom gear maker Ericsson , in its recently released report, said that a strong need for accessible broadband in rural and semi-urban areas is driving Indian operators to expand their 5G FWA footprints. 'Availability of affordable 5G FWA customer premises equipment (CPE) is also driving growth of 5G FWA, which will help bridge the digital divide,' it has said. Jio widens gap with rivals in active user base In May, Jio's active subscribers expanded by 5.5 million to 462 million, whereas Airtel's active subscribers base increased 1.3 million to 387 million, while Vodafone Idea's active subscribers declined by 1.3 million to 173 million as its network expansion is yet to show a visible impact, as per ICICI. Jio's active user market share rose 16bps (basis points) month-on-month to 42.8%, while Airtel's declined 13bps to 35.8% and Vi's fell 23bps to 16%, it said. 1bps is 0.01%. Industry-wide active subscriber base was up by 7.4 million to 1.08 billion, following a 0.7% month-on-month growth in May.
Economic Times
24-04-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Reliance Jio Q4 preview: PAT may jump up to 25% YoY on ARPU growth. Double-digit revenue growth expected
Reliance Jio Infocomm is expected to report a strong set of numbers for the January–March quarter, driven by an uptick in its subscriber base. The telecom arm of Reliance Industries (RIL) is projected to post net profit growth between 19% and 25% year-on-year, according to estimates by four brokerages. The Q4FY25 profit after tax (PAT) is expected to range between Rs 6,300 crore and Rs 6,677 crore. ADVERTISEMENT Revenue for the reporting quarter is anticipated to grow by 15–17% YoY, falling between Rs 29,800 crore and Rs 33,836 crore. Estimates from Axis Securities, ICICI Securities, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura have been considered. While Nomura is the most conservative in its Q4 PAT estimates, Morgan Stanley remains the most bullish. Regarding revenue, Nomura has the lowest estimate among peers, while Axis Securities projects the highest. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is expected to register double-digit YoY growth, supported by strong subscriber additions. The unlisted company will announce its Q4FY25 earnings on Friday, April 25, 2025. ADVERTISEMENT RIL's unlisted telecom arm is expected to report a PAT of Rs 6,781 crore, reflecting a 21.5% year-on-year increase, although showing a 1.2% decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Jio Platforms is projected to report revenue of Rs 33,836 crore in Q4FY25, marking a 2.3% sequential growth and a robust 17.2% year-on-year rise. ADVERTISEMENT Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to stand at Rs 17,000 crore, registering a 2.5% QoQ increase and an 18.4% YoY rise—indicating strong operational efficiency and effective cost 4G subscriber base could rise by 2.3% YoY to 493 million, compared to 482 million in Q4FY24. ADVERTISEMENT ARPU is expected to grow on the back of strong subscriber services revenue is seen at Rs 29,700 crore, up from Rs 26,000 crore in the year-ago period. India's mobile services revenue could grow by 14.5% YoY. ADVERTISEMENT Net profit is seen to go up by 21.4% YoY and marginally up QoQ (0.1%) to Rs 6,500 crore in the quarter under review. RJio's Q4FY25E revenue is estimated to rise 15.1% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 29,900 crore, benefitting from residual flow through of tariff hike and growth in fixed broadband (driven by FWA). RJio's ARPU may grow 1.2% QoQ, as it has a higher mix of subs with long validity and the tariff hike benefit is staggered over three quarters. It was empirically evident in previous two tariff hikes as well, ICICI Securities may grow 16.2% YoY and 2.2% QoQ to Rs 15,800 crore while the EBITDA margin is likely to remain stable QoQ as RJio has cost inflation on the back of rise in rentals for fibre. The net profit margin (NPM) is pegged at 21.7% in the January-March quarter versus 20.6% in Q4FY24 and 22.1% in Q3FY25. Morgan Stanley expects the bottom line to grow 25% YoY and 3% QoQ to Rs 6,677 crore while the topline could go up 15% YoY while gaining by 2.2% on a sequential basis at Rs 29,940 company's EBITDA is estimated at Rs 15,850 crore, and could register a 16.4% YoY and 2.4% sequential growth. Meanwhile, the EBITDA margin of 52.9% is seen in Q4FY25, which is a likely 50 bps YoY and 12 bps QoQ expects subscribers to grow to 487 million, a growth of 5 million subscribers QoQ and ARPU of Rs 206 for the average revenue per user may grow 13.4% on a YoY basis while rising by 1.3% QoQ. The company could see a 1% YoY and QoQ increase in subscribers at 487 said that RJio's growth will be led by robust subscriber additions and modest ARPU uptick. The company's net income is likely to jump 19% over Q4FY24 while 2% over Q3FY25 at Rs 6,300 crore. Revenue is seen at Rs 29,800 crore in 4QFY25 and may grow by 15% YoY while inching up 2% QoQ, driven by robust net additions of 6 million subscribers in the quarter, with the total subscriber base rising to 488 million from 482 million at the end of 3QFY25. The subscriber base may rise 1% YoY and QoQ.'We factor in an ARPU increase of 1% QoQ to Rs 205 per month from Rs 203 per month in the previous quarter,' it said. ARPU could go up 13% on a YoY basis. It estimate EBITDA of Rs15,600 crore in 4QFY25, 1% higher than the previous quarter, with a largely stable margin of 52.5%. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
