Latest news with #RLICorp
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A Closer Look at RLI Corp (RLI), a Quiet Dividend Grower
RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI) was recently included on our list of Dividend Champion vs Aristocrats: 12 Under the Radar Stocks to Buy. A smiling couple walking hand-in-hand out of a modern insurance office, illustrating the company's commitment to its customers. It is a specialty insurer that provides targeted coverage within the property and casualty insurance sectors. The company has built a strong track record over the years by consistently underwriting profitable policies. RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI) recently reported its Q2 2025 earnings and showed a stellar performance. The company's revenue came in at $499.8 million, up over 20% from the same period last year. The revenue also beat analysts' estimates by $56.4 million. The company reported underwriting income of $62.2 million, supported by a combined ratio of 84.5. While gross premiums written remained unchanged, net investment income saw a 16% rise. A significant boost to underwriting income came from favorable adjustments to prior years' loss reserves, contributing an additional $24.4 million. RLI Corp. (NYSE:RLI)'s operating cash flow for the quarter came in at $174.7 million, up 23% on a YoY basis. The company ended the quarter with $21.4 million available in cash and cash equivalents. Over the past five years, it has returned $971 million cumulatively in dividends. The company's dividend growth streak spans 50 years. Its quarterly dividend comes in at $0.16 per share for a dividend yield of 0.93%, as of July 23. While we acknowledge the potential of RLI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: and Disclosure: None.
Yahoo
23-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RLI Corp (RLI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Net Earnings and Investment Income ...
Operating Earnings: $0.84 per share for Q2 2025. Net Earnings: $1.34 per share for Q2 2025, compared to $0.89 in Q2 2024. Combined Ratio: 84.5 for Q2 2025, up from 81.5 last year. Investment Income: Increased by 16% year-to-date. Book Value Per Share: Increased by 16% year-to-date. Property Segment Premiums: Declined by 10% in Q2 2025. Casualty Segment Premiums: Increased by 7% in Q2 2025. Surety Segment Premiums: Increased by 7% in Q2 2025. Storm and Catastrophe Losses: Totaled $12.5 million in Q2 2025. Operating Cash Flow: $175 million for Q2 2025, up $33 million from last year. Average Purchase Yields: 4.7% in Q2 2025, 70 basis points above book yield. Personal Umbrella Growth: 24% growth with a 9% rate increase in Q2 2025. Transportation Division Rates: Up 12% in Q2 2025. Auto Coverages Rate Increases: Achieved 14% rate increases in Q2 2025. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with RLI. Release Date: July 22, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points RLI Corp (NYSE:RLI) reported a strong underwriting performance with an 84.5 combined ratio, indicating profitability across all segments. The company achieved a 16% growth in book value per share year-to-date, inclusive of dividends. Net investment income saw double-digit growth, contributing positively to the financial results. RLI Corp (NYSE:RLI) experienced a 7% increase in premiums for both Casualty and Surety segments, demonstrating growth in these areas. The company maintained a disciplined approach to underwriting, focusing on long-term profitability and risk selection. Negative Points Top-line growth was flat due to significant softening in the commercial property market. The Property segment experienced a 10% decline in gross premiums, influenced by increased competition and rate pressure. Higher acquisition costs were noted in both Property and Casualty segments, impacting expense ratios. The company faced challenges in the earthquake market, with submissions down 7% and rates down 9% in the quarter. RLI Corp (NYSE:RLI) encountered increased competition from MGAs and admitted carriers, affecting win rates and pricing. Q & A Highlights Q: Can you provide more details on the higher acquisition costs in Property and Casualty? A: Todd Bryant, CFO, explained that there is pressure on commissions in Property and Surety, along with a mixed shift, particularly in Surety. Investments in technology and digital experiences have also contributed to higher costs. Jennifer Klobnak, COO, added that additional reinsurance purchases have impacted net expenses. Q: How is pricing pressure affecting different distribution channels? A: Jennifer Klobnak, COO, noted that pricing pressure is more related to increased competition rather than specific distribution channels. In the E&S Property space, about 20 new entrants have increased competition. In Casualty, RLI focuses on rate adequacy and risk selection to maintain profitability. Q: What is the impact of tort reform in states like Georgia and Florida on your business? A: Craig Kliethermes, CEO, mentioned that while it's too early to see significant impacts in Georgia and Louisiana, Florida has shown some benefits from tort reform, increasing underwriter confidence. The company supports more states adopting similar reforms to reduce long-term costs. Q: Can you discuss the current state of the construction market and its impact on your business? A: Jennifer Klobnak, COO, stated that the construction industry appears healthy, with increased submissions across various lines. RLI's emphasis on meeting producers and asking for business has positively impacted submissions, contributing to growth in the construction segment. Q: How are you managing loss cost trends in the transportation and general casualty sectors? A: Craig Kliethermes, CEO, highlighted that RLI assumes double-digit loss cost inflation in commercial vehicles and continues to pursue rate increases. The company focuses on risk selection and providing loss control services to maintain profitability despite competition. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
RLI's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Net Investment Income
RLI Corp. RLI reported second-quarter 2025 operating earnings of 84cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12%. The bottom line, however, decreased 2.3% from the prior-year quarter. The quarterly results reflect higher net premiums earned and higher net investment income, partially offset by higher loss and settlement expenses. Operational Performance Operating revenues for the reported quarter were $441 million, up 6.9% year over year, driven by 6% higher net premiums earned and 16% higher net investment income. The top line, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5%. RLI Corp. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise RLI Corp. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | RLI Corp. Quote Gross premiums written remained flat at $562.3 million. The improvement in the performance of the Casualty and Property segments was offset by the decline in the Surety segment. Our estimate was $662 million. Net investment income increased 16% year over year to $39.4 million, which is in line with our estimate. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $38.9 million. The investment portfolio's total return was 2.9% in the quarter. Total expenses rose 9.8% year over year to $345.8 million, primarily due to higher loss and settlement expenses and policy acquisition costs. Our estimate was $366.7 million. Underwriting income of $62.2 million decreased 11.14% year over year. The combined ratio deteriorated 300 basis points (bps) year over year to 84.5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric was pegged at 88, while our estimate was 42.9 Financial Update RLI exited the quarter with total investments and cash of $4.4 billion, up 8.4% from 2024-end. Book value was $18.89 per share, up 13.9% from the figure as of Dec. 31, 2024. Net cash flow from operations was $174.7 million, up 23.2% year over year. The statutory surplus increased 2.3% from the end of 2024 to $1.8 billion as of June 30, 2025. Return on equity was 23.5%, down 180 bps from the year-ago period. Dividend Update On June 20, 2025, RLI paid a dividend of 16 cents, an increase of 1 cent from the last payout. RLI's cumulative dividends total more than $971 million in the last five years. Zacks Rank RLI currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Peer Performances The Travelers Companies TRV reported second-quarter 2025 core income of $6.51 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 83.8%.Travelers' total revenues increased 6.7% from the year-ago quarter to $12.1 billion, primarily driven by higher premiums, improved net investment income, higher fee income and other revenues. The top-line figure, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7%. Net written premiums increased 4% year over year to a record $11.5 billion, driven by strong growth across all three segments. The figure was higher than our estimate of $10.9 billion. The Progressive Corporation's PGR second-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.88 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.1%. The bottom line increased 84.1% year over revenues increased 19.5% year over year to $42.2 billion, driven by 19% higher net premiums earned, a 29.3% increase in net investment income, an 18.9% rise in fees and 28% higher service revenues. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 96.4%.Net premiums written were $20 billion in the quarter, up 12% from $17.9 billion a year ago. W.R. Berkley's WRB second-quarter 2025 operating income of $1.05 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 per share. The bottom line increased about 1% year over year. Operating revenues came in at $3.6 billion, up 7.9% year over year, on the back of higher net premiums earned as well as improved net investment income, higher insurance service fees and other income. The top line beat the consensus estimate by 1.8%. Catastrophe losses of $99.2 million in the quarter were wider than $89.7 million incurred in the year-ago quarter. The consolidated combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability) deteriorated 50 bps year over year to 92.1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was 91. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report RLI Corp. (RLI) : Free Stock Analysis Report The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) : Free Stock Analysis Report W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) : Free Stock Analysis Report The Progressive Corporation (PGR) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Business Wire
21-07-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
RLI Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results
PEORIA, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) – RLI Corp. reported second quarter 2025 net earnings of $124.3 million ($1.34 per share), compared to $82.0 million ($0.89 per share) for the second quarter of 2024. Operating earnings (1) for the second quarter of 2025 were $78.1 million ($0.84 per share), compared to $79.3 million ($0.86 per share) for the same period in 2024. 'RLI delivered solid earnings and continued book value growth in the second quarter.' Share All share and per share data in this release reflect the two-for-one stock split that RLI executed on January 15, 2025. (1) See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures. Expand Highlights for the quarter included: Underwriting income (1) of $62.2 million on a combined ratio (1) of 84.5. Gross premiums written were flat and net investment income increased 16%. Favorable development in prior years' loss reserves resulted in a $24.4 million net increase in underwriting income. Book value per share of $18.89, an increase of 16% (inclusive of dividends) from year-end 2024. 'RLI delivered solid earnings and continued book value growth in the second quarter,' said RLI Corp. President & CEO Craig Kliethermes. 'We posted an 85 combined ratio, underscoring our underwriting discipline in a highly competitive market. Investment income increased as we put operating cash flow to work in a favorable interest rate environment. Collectively, these results contributed to a 16% increase in book value since year-end 2024. These achievements reflect the strength of our team and their commitment to driving sustained value and long-term profitable growth.' Underwriting Income RLI achieved $62.2 million of underwriting income in the second quarter of 2025 on an 84.5 combined ratio, compared to $70.0 million on an 81.5 combined ratio in 2024. Results for both years include favorable development in prior years' loss reserves, which resulted in a $24.4 million and $19.8 million net increase to underwriting income in 2025 and 2024, respectively. The following table highlights underwriting income and combined ratios by segment for the second quarter. (1) See discussion below: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures. Expand Other Income Net investment income for the quarter increased 16% to $39.4 million, compared to the same period in 2024. The investment portfolio's total return was 2.9% for the quarter and 4.2% for the six months ended June 30, 2025. RLI's comprehensive earnings were $143.0 million for the quarter ($1.55 per share), compared to $74.1 million ($0.80 per share) for the same quarter in 2024. In addition to net earnings, comprehensive earnings for 2025 included after-tax unrealized gains from the fixed income portfolio, due to declining interest rates. Dividends Paid in Second Quarter of 2025 On June 20, 2025, the company paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share, a $0.01 increase over the prior quarter. RLI's cumulative dividends total more than $971 million paid over the last five years. Non-GAAP and Performance Measures Management has included certain non-generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP) financial measures in presenting the company's results. Management believes that these non-GAAP measures further explain the company's results of operations and allow for a more complete understanding of the underlying trends in the company's business. These measures should not be viewed as a substitute for those determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). In addition, our definitions of these items may not be comparable to the definitions used by other companies. Operating earnings and operating earnings per share (EPS) consist of our GAAP net earnings adjusted by net realized gains/(losses), net unrealized gains/(losses) on equity securities and taxes related thereto. Net earnings and net earnings per share are the GAAP financial measures that are most directly comparable to operating earnings and operating EPS. A reconciliation of the operating earnings and operating EPS to the comparable GAAP financial measures is included in the 2025 financial highlights below. Underwriting income or profit represents the pretax profitability of our insurance operations and is derived by subtracting loss and settlement expenses, policy acquisition costs and insurance operating expenses from net premium earned, which are all GAAP financial measures. The combined ratio, which is derived from components of underwriting income, is a performance measure commonly used by property and casualty insurance companies and is calculated as the sum of loss and settlement expenses, policy acquisition costs and insurance operating expenses, divided by net premiums earned, which are all GAAP measures. Other News On July 8, 2025, RLI was named one of the insurance industry's top-performing companies for the 35th consecutive year by Ward Benchmarking, a business unit of Aon. RLI is the only property & casualty insurance company to be recognized as a Ward's 50® P&C Top Performer every year since the list's inception in 1991. At 10 a.m. central daylight time (CDT) on July 22, 2025, RLI management will hold a conference call to discuss quarterly results with insurance industry analysts. Interested parties may listen to the discussion at Except for historical information, this news release may include forward-looking statements (within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) including, without limitation, statements reflecting our current expectations about the future performance of our company or our business segments or about future market conditions. These statements are subject to certain risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Various risk factors that could affect future results are listed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-K Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2024. About RLI RLI Corp. (NYSE: RLI) is a specialty insurer serving niche property, casualty and surety markets. The company provides deep underwriting expertise and superior service to commercial and personal lines customers nationwide. RLI's products are offered through its insurance subsidiaries – RLI Insurance Company, Mt. Hawley Insurance Company and Contractors Bonding and Insurance Company. All of RLI's insurance subsidiaries are rated A+ (Superior) by AM Best Company. RLI has paid and increased regular dividends for 50 consecutive years and delivered underwriting profits for 29 consecutive years. To learn more about RLI, visit Supplemental disclosure regarding the earnings impact of specific items: (1) Reserve development reflects changes from previously estimated losses. (2) See discussion above: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures. (3) Items included in operating earnings per share are after tax and incorporates incentive and profit sharing-related impacts which affected policy acquisition, insurance operating and general corporate expenses. Expand RLI CORP 2025 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (Unaudited) (Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended June 30, Six Months Ended June 30, SUMMARIZED INCOME STATEMENT DATA: 2025 2024 % Change 2025 2024 % Change Net premiums earned $ 401,904 $ 379,065 6.0 % $ 800,249 $ 739,741 8.2 % Net investment income 39,418 33,961 16.1 % 76,144 66,808 14.0 % Net realized gains (losses) 15,004 (192 ) NM 29,916 5,802 NM Net unrealized gains on equity securities 43,500 3,608 NM 1,182 48,922 (97.6 ) % Consolidated revenue $ 499,826 $ 416,442 20.0 % $ 907,491 $ 861,273 5.4 % Loss and settlement expenses 184,578 167,799 10.0 % 361,816 311,623 16.1 % Policy acquisition costs 125,502 113,921 10.2 % 249,189 224,375 11.1 % Insurance operating expenses 29,594 27,321 8.3 % 56,468 56,024 0.8 % Interest expense on debt 1,350 1,604 (15.8 ) % 2,685 3,222 (16.7 ) % General corporate expenses 4,754 4,140 14.8 % 7,702 9,150 (15.8 ) % Total expenses $ 345,778 $ 314,785 9.8 % $ 677,860 $ 604,394 12.2 % Equity in earnings of unconsolidated investees 2,467 1,646 49.9 % 5,515 6,415 (14.0 ) % Earnings before income taxes $ 156,515 $ 103,303 51.5 % $ 235,146 $ 263,294 (10.7 ) % Income tax expense 32,179 21,311 51.0 % 47,596 53,402 (10.9 ) % Net earnings $ 124,336 $ 81,992 51.6 % $ 187,550 $ 209,892 (10.6 ) % Other comprehensive earnings (loss), net of tax 18,701 (7,843 ) NM 48,731 (20,514 ) NM Comprehensive earnings $ 143,037 $ 74,149 92.9 % $ 236,281 $ 189,378 24.8 % Operating earnings (1): Net earnings $ 124,336 $ 81,992 51.6 % $ 187,550 $ 209,892 (10.6 ) % Less: Net realized (gains) losses (15,004 ) 192 NM (29,916 ) (5,802 ) NM Income tax on realized gains (losses) 3,150 (41 ) NM 6,282 1,218 NM Net unrealized gains on equity securities (43,500 ) (3,608 ) NM (1,182 ) (48,922 ) NM Income tax on unrealized gains on equity securities 9,136 757 NM 248 10,273 NM Operating earnings $ 78,118 $ 79,292 (1.5 ) % $ 162,982 $ 166,659 (2.2 ) % Return on Equity: Net earnings (trailing four quarters) 19.7 % 23.6 % Comprehensive earnings (trailing four quarters) 23.5 % 25.3 % Per Share Data: Diluted: Weighted average shares outstanding (in 000's) 92,518 92,358 92,512 92,338 Net earnings per share $ 1.34 $ 0.89 50.6 % $ 2.03 $ 2.27 (10.6 ) % Less: Net realized (gains) losses (0.16 ) — NM (0.32 ) (0.06 ) NM Income tax on realized gains (losses) 0.03 — NM 0.06 0.01 NM Net unrealized gains on equity securities (0.47 ) (0.04 ) NM (0.01 ) (0.53 ) NM Income tax on unrealized gains on equity securities 0.10 0.01 NM — 0.11 NM Operating earnings per share (1) $ 0.84 $ 0.86 (2.3 ) % $ 1.76 $ 1.80 (2.2 ) % Expand (1) See discussion above: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures. NM = Not Meaningful Expand RLI CORP 2025 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (Unaudited) (Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts) June 30, December 31, 2025 2024 % Change SUMMARIZED BALANCE SHEET DATA: Fixed income, at fair value $ 3,420,761 $ 3,175,796 7.7 % (amortized cost - $3,573,679 at 6/30/25) (amortized cost - $3,391,159 at 12/31/24) Equity securities, at fair value 810,959 736,191 10.2 % (cost - $487,656 at 6/30/25) (cost - $417,897 at 12/31/24) Short-term investments 115,662 74,915 54.4 % Other invested assets 57,266 57,939 (1.2 ) % Cash and cash equivalents 21,414 39,790 (46.2 ) % Total investments and cash $ 4,426,062 $ 4,084,631 8.4 % Accrued investment income 31,113 28,319 9.9 % Premiums and reinsurance balances receivable 252,931 230,534 9.7 % Ceded unearned premiums 121,090 124,955 (3.1 ) % Reinsurance balances recoverable on unpaid losses 761,719 755,425 0.8 % Deferred policy acquisition costs 180,765 166,214 8.8 % Property and equipment 41,722 43,172 (3.4 ) % Investment in unconsolidated investees 61,183 56,477 8.3 % Goodwill and intangibles 53,562 53,562 0.0 % Income taxes - deferred — 7,793 (100.0 ) % Other assets 60,660 77,720 (22.0 ) % Total assets $ 5,990,807 $ 5,628,802 6.4 % Unpaid losses and settlement expenses $ 2,806,889 $ 2,693,470 4.2 % Unearned premiums 1,034,176 984,140 5.1 % Reinsurance balances payable 32,773 44,681 (26.7 ) % Funds held 120,019 97,380 23.2 % Income taxes - current 10,009 749 NM Income taxes - deferred 3,475 — NM Short-term debt 100,000 100,000 — % Accrued expenses 80,958 124,242 (34.8 ) % Other liabilities 67,847 62,173 9.1 % Total liabilities $ 4,256,146 $ 4,106,835 3.6 % Shareholders' equity 1,734,661 1,521,967 14.0 % Total liabilities & shareholders' equity $ 5,990,807 $ 5,628,802 6.4 % OTHER DATA: Common shares outstanding (in 000's) 91,829 91,738 Book value per share $ 18.89 $ 16.59 13.9 % Closing stock price per share $ 72.22 $ 82.42 (12.4 ) % Statutory surplus $ 1,829,236 $ 1,787,312 2.3 % NM = Not Meaningful Expand RLI CORP 2025 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS UNDERWRITING SEGMENT DATA (Unaudited) (Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Gross premiums written $ 306,610 $ 211,817 $ 43,854 $ 562,281 Net premiums written 256,245 160,919 39,895 457,059 Net premiums earned 234,638 130,664 36,602 401,904 Net loss & settlement expenses 141,260 60.2 % 38,459 29.4 % 4,859 13.3 % 184,578 45.9 % Net operating expenses 85,089 36.3 % 42,694 32.7 % 27,313 74.6 % 155,096 38.6 % 2024 Gross premiums written $ 286,556 $ 236,014 $ 40,803 $ 563,373 Net premiums written 238,892 183,453 37,554 459,899 Net premiums earned 209,100 134,097 35,868 379,065 Net loss & settlement expenses 121,850 58.3 % 41,382 30.9 % 4,567 12.7 % 167,799 44.3 % Net operating expenses 76,935 36.8 % 39,535 29.4 % 24,772 69.1 % 141,242 37.2 % Underwriting income (1) $ 10,315 95.1 % $ 53,180 60.3 % $ 6,529 81.8 % $ 70,024 81.5 % Expand Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Gross premiums written $ 585,064 $ 381,869 $ 86,454 $ 1,053,387 Net premiums written 491,852 282,655 79,643 854,150 Net premiums earned 463,686 263,208 73,355 800,249 Net loss & settlement expenses 287,095 61.9 % 71,184 27.0 % 3,537 4.8 % 361,816 45.2 % Net operating expenses 166,231 35.9 % 85,598 32.6 % 53,828 73.4 % 305,657 38.2 % 2024 Gross premiums written $ 531,885 $ 416,378 $ 83,785 $ 1,032,048 Net premiums written 444,520 316,624 76,388 837,532 Net premiums earned 407,376 263,508 68,857 739,741 Net loss & settlement expenses 231,322 56.8 % 73,959 28.1 % 6,342 9.2 % 311,623 42.1 % Net operating expenses 152,065 37.3 % 78,653 29.8 % 49,681 72.2 % 280,399 37.9 % Underwriting income (loss) (1) $ 23,989 94.1 % $ 110,896 57.9 % $ 12,834 81.4 % $ 147,719 80.0 % Expand (1) See discussion above: Non-GAAP and Performance Measures Expand Category: Earnings Release.
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysts Estimate RLI Corp. (RLI) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
The market expects RLI Corp. (RLI) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 21, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This specialty insurance company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -12.8%. Revenues are expected to be $443.64 million, up 7.4% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.39% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only. A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). For RLI Corp., the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +2.12%. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4. So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that RLI Corp. will beat the consensus EPS estimate. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number. For the last reported quarter, it was expected that RLI Corp. would post earnings of $0.88 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.92, delivering a surprise of +4.55%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times. An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. RLI Corp. doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Another stock from the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, Travelers (TRV), is soon expected to post earnings of $3.49 per share for the quarter ended June 2025. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +39%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $12.2 billion, up 7.5% from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Travelers has remained unchanged. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of +8.76%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate. This Earnings ESP, combined with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggests that Travelers will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report RLI Corp. (RLI) : Free Stock Analysis Report The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
