Latest news with #RabeeSecurities
Khaleej Times
04-06-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index posts 0.7% growth in May
The Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index (RSISX Index) rose by 0.7 per cent in May, supported by gains in Asiacell, Baghdad Soft Drinks, National Bank of Iraq, and Al-Mansour Bank. Meanwhile, the RSISX Total Return Index (RSISXTR) outperformed, rising 6.4 per cent, driven by strong dividend activity. Key contributors included Bank of Baghdad (IQD0.65 per share, 14.5 per cent yield), Asiacell (IQD1.50 per share, 11.5 per cent yield), and Al-Mansour Hotel (IQD0.17 per share, 0.4 per cent yield). Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities, commented: 'The market's performance this month reinforces investor confidence in core sectors like banking and telecom. Despite softer trading volumes, we are seeing healthy signals in dividend yields and price movements. As Iraq advances on reforms and financial inclusion, the medium-term fundamentals remain promising.' Total trading volume on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) declined 21 per cent month-on-month to $21.8 million. Excluding cross-transactions, the volume stood at $18.2 million, a 24 per cent drop. The banking sector remained dominant, accounting for 60.1 per cent of trades, followed by telecom (19.8 per cent), industry (13.1 per cent), services (3.2 per cent), agriculture (2.1 per cent), and hotels & tourism (1.6 per cent). Trading activity in the OTC market also dipped 10 per cent to $88.5K. In May, 27 companies recorded share price increases. Of these, 13 rose more than 5 per cent, and 9 gained over 10 per cent. Al-Ahlyia for Agricultural Production led the market with a 67.4 per cent surge, followed by Al-Hilal Industries, up 42.5 per cent. On the macroeconomic front, Iraq welcomed several key developments during the month. The IMF, during its May 4–13 visit, called for urgent reforms including fiscal consolidation, restructuring of state-owned banks, and private sector expansion. The 34th Ordinary Arab League Summit was held in Baghdad on May 17, hosting delegations from 20 Arab countries. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) launched its first National Financial Inclusion Strategy (2025–2029), aiming to expand secure access to financial services nationwide. Additionally, Iraq signed a strategic deal with a consortium led by China-based Geo-Jade Petroleum and Basra Crescent. The agreement targets a fivefold increase in output from the Tuba oil field rising from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day—and includes investment in downstream infrastructure totaling $848 million.
Zawya
04-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index posts 0.7% growth in May
Baghdad, Iraq: The Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index (RSISX Index) rose by 0.7% in May, supported by gains in Asiacell, Baghdad Soft Drinks, National Bank of Iraq, and Al-Mansour Bank. Meanwhile, the RSISX Total Return Index (RSISXTR) outperformed, rising 6.4%, driven by strong dividend activity. Key contributors included Bank of Baghdad (IQD0.65 per share, 14.5% yield), Asiacell (IQD1.50 per share, 11.5% yield), and Al-Mansour Hotel (IQD0.17 per share, 0.4% yield). Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities, commented: 'The market's performance this month reinforces investor confidence in core sectors like banking and telecom. Despite softer trading volumes, we are seeing healthy signals in dividend yields and price movements. As Iraq advances on reforms and financial inclusion, the medium-term fundamentals remain promising'. Total trading volume on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) declined 21% month-on-month to USD 21.8 million. Excluding cross-transactions, the volume stood at USD 18.2 million, a 24% drop. The banking sector remained dominant, accounting for 60.1% of trades, followed by telecom (19.8%), industry (13.1%), services (3.2%), agriculture (2.1%), and hotels & tourism (1.6%). Trading activity in the OTC market also dipped 10% to USD 88.5K. In May, 27 companies recorded share price increases. Of these, 13 rose more than 5%, and 9 gained over 10%. Al-Ahlyia for Agricultural Production led the market with a 67.4% surge, followed by Al-Hilal Industries, up 42.5%. On the macroeconomic front, Iraq welcomed several key developments during the month. The IMF, during its May 4–13 visit, called for urgent reforms including fiscal consolidation, restructuring of state-owned banks, and private sector expansion. The 34th Ordinary Arab League Summit was held in Baghdad on May 17, hosting delegations from 20 Arab countries. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) launched its first National Financial Inclusion Strategy (2025–2029), aiming to expand secure access to financial services nationwide. Additionally, Iraq signed a strategic deal with a consortium led by China-based Geo-Jade Petroleum and Basra Crescent. The agreement targets a fivefold increase in output from the Tuba oil field rising from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day and includes investment in downstream infrastructure totaling $848 million.
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Rabee's Iraq Stock Exchange Index reports 3.0% growth in April
Baghdad, Iraq: The Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index (RSISX Index) recorded a 3.0% increase in April, distinguishing Iraq's capital markets from declines seen across several regional economies, including Saudi Arabia (-2.9%), Bahrain (-2.0%), Kuwait (-1.4%), and Muscat (-1.2%). The positive trajectory was led by key contributors such as Al-Mansour Hotel, Al-Mansour Bank, Baghdad Soft Drinks, Asiacell, and Bank of Baghdad. 'The strength of Iraq's financial markets this month reflects more than isolated stock movements—it signals growing investor trust in the country's economic reforms and market structure,' said Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities. 'With regulatory momentum building and investor participation diversifying, the RSISX Index continues to position itself as a credible indicator of the country's forward economic narrative.' The RSISX Total Return Index (RSISXTR) posted a 4.2% rise in April, outpacing the RSISX Index itself. This gain was partially driven by the absence of the dividend impact from the National Bank of Iraq, which issued a dividend of IQD 0.20 per share, equivalent to a 5.6% yield. Total trading volume on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) dipped by 2% compared to March, reaching USD 27.7 million. Excluding cross transactions, volume declined 11% month-on-month to USD 24.1 million. The banking sector continued to dominate activity with a 71.1% share, followed by the industry (11.0%), telecom (6.2%), hotels and tourism (6.0%), agriculture (4.2%), and services (1.5%) sectors. Meanwhile, over-the-counter (OTC) market volume rose significantly, increasing 288% from the previous month to USD 98.5K. Investor sentiment remained optimistic, with 30 companies witnessing share price growth. Of these, 16 increased by more than 5.0%, and 8 surpassed the 10.0% mark. Kurdistan International Islamic Bank led with a 118.9% increase in share value, followed by Al-Mansour Hotel at 20.0%. On a broader level, April featured several developments underscoring Iraq's capital market maturity. A strategic cooperation agreement between the Iraqi and American Chambers of Commerce was signed on April 9 to strengthen SME participation and enhance bilateral trade, science, and technology collaboration. On April 15, the Iraqi Securities Commission launched its first Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) guide, establishing mandatory standards for ISX-listed companies. The month concluded with a landmark MoU between the Iraq Stock Exchange, the Iraqi Securities Commission, and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange to join the Tabadul digital trading platform, advancing regional integration and cross-border innovation.
Iraq Business
07-05-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Tabaqchali: Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives?
By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News . Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives? The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), closed at an all-time high for the month, with a 3.0% increase, and is up 3.3% for the year. The market was closed in the first week of the month in observance of the Eid holidays, and so it missed out on the global market mayhem in response to the unveiling of the U.S.'s "reciprocal" tariffs on its trading partners. Once trading resumed, it, to some extent, joined its global peers in being down 1.0% for two days until the announcement of the 90-day suspension of tariffs, after which it ticked upwards to close at an all-time monthly high -although the all-time daily high was mid-month (chart below). The market's technical picture continues to be positive, and the consolidation of the last few weeks is likely to continue for some time, given the uncertainty over the direction of the world's economy from the evolving U.S. sanctions -a great deal of uncertainty remains, in which the positives of the 90-day tariff suspension, might be replaced by a U.S.-China trade war, or the 90 days will lapse before enough "beautiful" deals are agreed on. Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover ( Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of April 30th. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades1 ) The market's action in closing at an all-time-high, stands in sharp contrast to those of other global markets, which have recouped their "liberation day" losses, yet remain down year to date. Moreover, it is remarkable considering the potential negative effects from Iraq's leverage to global oil demand. As argued in "Tariffs, Oil Prices, and the Budget", irrespective of the evolving U.S. tariff policy, their direct impact on Iraq is almost zero, as oil constitutes almost all of its exports to the U.S., which are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, but, the impact will be indirect and felt through a lower Iraqi oil price as a consequence of expected lower global demand for oil. On the one hand, this negative is aggravated by increased supply in the form of OPEC+'s aggressive unwinding of its prior production cuts for May and June, that probably will be repeated for the next few months as well. On the other hand, the positives are the U.S.'s increasing tough line against Iranian oil (crude, and products) exports to China, which would more than offset OPEC+'s increased production, should they be fully implemented, so is the potential decline of high-cost U.S. shale production, as well as the low levels of global oil stocks. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how these factors will play out as well as on the direction of the global economy, with the result that oil markets are in unchartered territory, and so oil prices continue to head lower, with Brent crude trading at four-year lows. Mirroring these concerns, the IMF, as part of lowering its global growth forecasts for 2025-26 in response to the U.S.'s tariffs, lowered those for oil exporters even more reflecting the added effects of lower oil prices, with its forecasts for Iraq lowered more than those of its peers among oil exporters (table below). IMF's Iraq's growth forecasts for 2025-26 versus growth figures for 2023-24 (Source: IMF May 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia; old forecast refers to IMF's October 2024 forecast, while new forecast is that of May 2025) The obvious question is: what gives? Especially considering that investors on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), whether locals or the handful of foreigners, are fully aware of the effects of lower prices on Iraq, and should have reacted negatively without waiting for the oil market's weird dynamics or for the IMF's forecast downgrade. The logical answer, as asserted here in the past, most recently in "What Next After Two Gangbuster Years?", is that Iraq's economy is undergoing a significant structural transformation, following the country's decades of conflict, driven by two key dynamics -the cumulative positive effects of the country's relative stability and the acceleration of banking adoption instead of cash and informality that dominated the economy, that are in the early stages of their transformation of the economy. One such manifestation of the increased adoption of banking, last discussed under a year ago in "An Unfolding Structural Economic Transformation", is the significant growth, year-over-year and month-over-month, in the monthly values of Iraqi Dinar (IQD) transactions through cards (prepaid, debit, and credit) and e-wallets (chart below). These are at the early stages of the transition to the use of the banking system in the payments for transactions, and while from a small base, the trends are clear and mirror, with a time lag, those that took place elsewhere in emerging and frontier economies. It is this increased adoption of banking, that stands out as a positive in the IMF's updated forecasts, as seen through the figures for broad money growth (table above). While they were lowered from 6.4% to 4.3%, they still show solid growth as a reflection of the increased adoption of banking and the role that banks play in the expansion of the money supply. Card and E-wallet Monthly IQD Transactions (Source: CBI, AFC Research, data as of the end of December 2024) Finally, the market's positive performance, despite such negatives, should be seen in the context of a market that last peaked in January 2014, followed by a brutal seven-year bear market in which the RSISX USD Index was down 25.4% in 2014, 22.7% in 2015, 17.4% in 2016%, 11.8% in 2017, 15.0% in 2018, 1.3% in 2019, and 5.4% in 2020 -for a cumulative decline of 66.6%; and only surpassed the 2014 peak over a decade later in October 2024. Nevertheless, the negative effects of lower oil prices on the economy will become a negative headwind, reversing the positive tailwind of the past two years. Yet, the secular positives of the economic transformation should overcome the drag from the cyclical negatives and thus continue to drive the market's direction. The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), having surpassed its 2014 peak by 10.3% by the end of April, has the potential to rally further reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, risks remain given Iraq's recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, especially in the current uncertain global environment, as well as the risk that a widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region. Notes: Daily market turnover is first adjusted by removing block, pre-arranged trades conducted during the special session following the regular trading session; subsequently, it is adjusted further by removing high-volume trades during regular market hours that show a pattern consistent with those of pre-arranged trades. High-volume trades are defined as those that are significantly higher than a given stock's average daily turnover; and as such are subjective. Moreover, trading volumes, and trading turnovers are used interchangeably here, and defined as the values of trading turnovers in Iraqi dinars (IQD) Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format . Mr Tabaqchali ( @AMTabaqchali ) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.
Khaleej Times
10-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Rabee Securities achieves 1.6% growth in Iraq Stock Exchange index amid regional market volatility
Rabee Securities, Iraq's leading financial services firm, reported a 1.6% growth in the Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index for March 2025. This performance emerges as a standout achievement during a period where regional markets experienced varied economic pressures. While major markets in the region recorded declines, Iraq's financial sector demonstrated resilience and strategic adaptability. The RSISX Total Return Index reported an even stronger growth rate of 2.0%, driven by effective dividend management, strong investor engagement, and a steady flow of capital into key sectors. The broader regional landscape continues to navigate complex global economic conditions. Despite these challenges, Iraq's financial markets have shown robust performance and continued growth. Excluding cross transactions, monthly trading volume increased by 31% to $26.9 million. According to Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities, the consistent growth in trading volume underscores Iraq's ability to attract and retain investor interest. 'The continued momentum in trading activity reflects a resilient investor base that recognises the potential within Iraq's financial markets. We are seeing substantial engagement across key sectors, with the banking sector particularly demonstrating strong performance and investor interest.' Strategic economic initiatives during March further highlighted Iraq's capacity to strengthen its economic foundations. The establishment of the National Mobile Telecommunications Company (NMTC) in partnership with Vodafone Group to develop the country's 5G network exemplifies a forward-looking vision aimed at enhancing infrastructure and revenue generation. Additionally, the $25 billion agreement with BP to develop four oilfields in Kirkuk, aiming to increase oil output by 450,000 barrels per day and elevate natural gas production to at least 400 million cubic metres annually, is expected to provide a substantial boost to the nation's economic landscape. The Central Bank of Iraq's partnership with Emirates Islamic Bank to enhance cooperation in Islamic banking is another critical step in diversifying Iraq's financial ecosystem. By expanding correspondent accounts and enabling Iraqi customers to invest in Islamic sukuks, this collaboration aims to broaden investment opportunities and foster greater financial inclusion. Rabee Securities' consistent performance against a challenging regional backdrop highlights Iraq's resilience, adaptability, and forward-thinking approach. As markets across the region continue to navigate complex conditions, Rabee Securities remains committed to delivering critical insights and strategic guidance to investors seeking sustainable growth.
