Latest news with #Ralhan
Mint
10-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Services sector may catch up with merchandise exports in FY26
NEW DELHI : Even as global headwinds weigh on India's merchandise exports, the services sector is emerging as a vital cushion, delivering robust growth and helping anchor the country's external balance. At the current pace, services could catch up with merchandise exports in 2025-26, on an annual basis, marking a significant structural shift in India's external trade dynamics, showed figures shared by exporters. In the first five months of 2025, services exports rose 16% year-on-year to $173 billion, while the services trade surplus surged 21% to $90 billion, according to data from the Union commerce ministry, offering crucial support to the current account at a time of volatility in goods trade. Merchandise exports slipped 1.4% to $192.53 billion, and the trade deficit widened nearly 15% to $106.88 billion during the same period. The strong performance underscores the resilience of India's technology, consulting, financial, and business services, even as traditional goods trade remains vulnerable to a turbulent global landscape. Counterbalance June services exports are expected to post a multi-month high, bolstered by record output during the month. The HSBC India Services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to a 10-month high of 60.4 in June, from 58.8 in May, reflecting strong sales, new orders, and buoyant demand. The index has remained well above the 50-mark, indicating continued expansion, since January. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) expects this momentum to continue in the coming months and sees services as a key growth engine in achieving the government's ambitious $1 trillion export target for 2025-26, up from $825 billion in the previous fiscal. 'We expect about a 24% annual increase in services exports in value terms in 2025-26, on the back of strong growth reported in recent months," said S.C. Ralhan, president, FIEO. 'For merchandise exports, we are expecting a 10% growth in 2025-26, but there is a condition: if the war (Russia-Ukraine) continues, it may come down to 5-6%," he added. In absolute terms, the FIEO projects services exports to reach around $476 billion in 2025-26, while merchandise exports are expected to range between $459 billion and $481 billion, indicating that services exports could catch up with goods exports by the end of the fiscal year. In 2024-25, merchandise exports stood at $437.42 billion, marginally higher than the $437.07 billion recorded in the previous year, while services exports rose to $383.51 billion from $341.06 billion. 'The merchandise exports depend on several global factors, like the ongoing wars and US trade tariffs. We do expect the Indian government to sign a bilateral trade agreement with the US soon," Ralhan said. 'However, services exports will not be impacted as the agreement mainly deals with merchandise trade," he added. A spokesperson of the ministry of commerce didn't respond to emailed queries. Leading services exports Software and IT services, classified under telecommunications, computer, and information services, account for around $150 billion annually, roughly half of India's total services exports, according to the New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Other business services, including consultancy, engineering, R&D, and technical services, follow, contributing about $80 billion, or a quarter of overall services exports. 'The growth in this sector is mainly driven by the rise of global capability centres (GCCs) in India," the GTRI report noted. Meanwhile, India Ratings expects services trade to largely remain insulated from tariffs, though the broader uncertainty in global trade could cast a shadow on the sector. 'The global trade in commercialservicesgrew at a healthy 6.8% on-year in 2024. The globalservicesPMI moderated to 52.0 in May 2025 from 53.8 in December 2024. However, it has remained in expansion for the past 29 months," India Ratings said in a recent report. However, the rating agency expects theservicestrade surplus to moderate to around $48 billion in 1QFY26. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also expects global services trade volume to grow 4% on-year in 2025, lower than its earlier baseline forecast of 5.1%. This follows a strong 6.8% growth in global commercial services trade in 2024.
Fibre2Fashion
24-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Iran-Israel conflict unrest won't derail India's export momentum: FIEO
Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran-Israel conflict, India's export sector remains resilient and adaptive, according to the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO). While trade with Iran and Israel is notable, it forms a relatively small part of India's overall export-import portfolio. 'We do anticipate some short-term impact on demand and logistics—particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports. Increased shipping costs, longer transit times, and rising marine insurance premiums may add pressure, especially in price-sensitive sectors,' S C Ralhan, president of FIEO . 'However, Indian exporters have historically responded with agility—re-routing shipments, exploring new markets, and managing financial risks effectively. The strong presence of MSMEs and large exporters, along with government support mechanisms, is expected to buffer near-term shocks.' India's export sector remains resilient amid Middle East tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, according to FIEO. Though trade with Iran and Israel is limited, short-term disruptions in Gulf logistics are likely. Rising shipping costs and oil volatility may add pressure, but MSME agility, government backing, and energy diversification offer stability. The FIEO is monitoring crude oil price volatility, given its implications for inflation and freight costs. Nonetheless, India's diversified energy strategy and the Reserve Bank's proactive approach are helping to maintain macroeconomic stability, Ralhan said in a press release. FIEO views the current situation as an opportunity to strengthen regional partnerships, explore alternate trade routes, and reinforce India's global trade reliability. 'The FIEO is committed to supporting exporters with timely guidance, market intelligence, and policy advocacy to ensure continued momentum in our global trade journey,' the release added. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Time of India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Iran, Israel conflict may have short-term impact on good's demand in Gulf region: FIEO
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel may have a short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports , the Federation of Indian Export Organisations ( FIEO ) said on said that the conflict may also lead to increased shipping costs , longer transit times, and hike in marine insurance premiums The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated significantly in recent weeks, with both sides exchanging heavy strikes and the US becoming directly involved in the hostilities."We do anticipate some short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports. Increased shipping costs, longer transit times, and rising marine insurance premiums may add pressure, especially in price -sensitive sectors," FIEO President SC Ralhan said that crude oil price volatility can influence both inflation and logistics India's diversified energy procurement strategy and the Reserve Bank's proactive stance help maintain liquidity and macroeconomic stability, Ralhan added."Overall, while there are temporary headwinds, we see this as an opportunity for Indian exporters to explore alternate routes, strengthen regional partnerships, and consolidate India's role as a reliable trade partner in uncertain times," he geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing conflict, pose certain challenges to global trade dynamics , India's export sector remains resilient and adaptive."Our trade with both Iran and Israel, while important, constitutes a small share of our overall export-import basket. The government and industry are jointly monitoring developments to ensure minimal disruption," the President said.
Mint
23-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Iran, Israel conflict may have short-term impact on goods demand in Gulf region: FIEO
New Delhi, The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel may have a short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations said on Monday. FIEO said that the conflict may also lead to increased shipping costs, longer transit times, and hike in marine insurance premiums. The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated significantly in recent weeks, with both sides exchanging heavy strikes and the US becoming directly involved in the hostilities. "We do anticipate some short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports. Increased shipping costs, longer transit times, and rising marine insurance premiums may add pressure, especially in price -sensitive sectors," FIEO President SC Ralhan said. He said that crude oil price volatility can influence both inflation and logistics costs. But India's diversified energy procurement strategy and the Reserve Bank's proactive stance help maintain liquidity and macroeconomic stability, Ralhan added. "Overall, while there are temporary headwinds, we see this as an opportunity for Indian exporters to explore alternate routes, strengthen regional partnerships, and consolidate India's role as a reliable trade partner in uncertain times," he said. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing conflict, pose certain challenges to global trade dynamics, India's export sector remains resilient and adaptive. "Our trade with both Iran and Israel, while important, constitutes a small share of our overall export-import basket. The government and industry are jointly monitoring developments to ensure minimal disruption," the President said. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
India.com
23-06-2025
- Business
- India.com
India's Export Sector Stands Strong Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions: FIEO
New Delhi: While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, pose certain challenges to global trade dynamics, India's export sector remains resilient and adaptive, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said on Monday. The country's trade with both Iran and Israel, while important, constitutes a small share of the overall export-import basket. "The government and industry are jointly monitoring developments to ensure minimal disruption," FIEO President S.C. Ralhan said. "We do anticipate some short-term impact on demand and logistics, particularly in the Gulf region, which serves as a crucial hub for Indian exports. Increased shipping costs, longer transit times, and rising marine insurance premiums may add pressure, especially in price-sensitive sectors," he said in a statement. A wider Middle East conflict is expected to have an impact on oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, which would lead to a sharp spike in oil prices. Shipping could also get hit as Yemen's Houthi rebels have already warned that they would resume their attacks on ships if the US attacked Iran. India imports around 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement. However, Indian exporters have time and again demonstrated agility in re-routing shipments, diversifying markets, and managing financial exposures, the FIEO said. The robust MSMEs and large-scale exporters, coupled with strong government support mechanisms, will help cushion any near-term shocks. Crude oil price volatility is being closely watched, as it can influence both inflation and logistics costs. But India's diversified energy procurement strategy and the Reserve Bank's proactive stance help maintain liquidity and macroeconomic stability. "Overall, while there are temporary headwinds, we see this as an opportunity for Indian exporters to explore alternate routes, strengthen regional partnerships, and consolidate India's role as a reliable trade partner in uncertain times," Ralhan said. The FIEO said it is committed to supporting exporters with timely guidance, market intelligence, and policy advocacy to ensure continued momentum in our global trade journey. Meanwhile, India's total exports of merchandise and services stood at $71.12 billion in May, which represents a growth of 2.77 per cent over the same month of the previous year.
