Latest news with #RanNeuner
Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Are Crypto Treasury Companies Selling Air? Inside An $80Billion Bubble
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JUNE 04: MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor walks through the Bitcoin 2021 ... More Convention, a crypto-currency conference held at the Mana Convention Center in Wynwood on June 04, 2021 in Miami, Florida. The crypto conference is expected to draw 50,000 people and runs from Friday, June 4 through June 6th. (Photo by) The crypto treasury company trend has exploded since MicroStrategy first bought bitcoin in 2020. Companies like SharpLink Gaming (SBET), which announced a massive $425 million private placement to fund an ethereum treasury, and dozens of others have followed suit. Yet despite billions flowing into these vehicles, crypto prices haven't moved much beyond what you'd expect from regular market forces. According to Youtube crypto analyst Ran Neuner, there's a counterintuitive explanation for this phenomenon. In his view, these companies aren't actually buying crypto off the open market in meaningful quantities. Ran argues they've become sophisticated vehicles for crypto natives to exit their positions at premium valuations while retail investors pay inflated prices for crypto exposure they could get cheaper elsewhere. The Original Crypto Treasury Playbook Microstrategy price as of July 2025. MicroStrategy created the original playbook. Back in 2020, before bitcoin ETFs existed, the company provided institutional investors a way to get leveraged bitcoin exposure through traditional capital markets. Michael Saylor's genius was using both debt and equity financing to tap into the $80 trillion traditional finance ecosystem, compared to crypto's then-$3 trillion market. The strategy worked brilliantly. MicroStrategy raised billions and accumulated 450,000 bitcoin by January 2025, making it the largest corporate bitcoin holder globally. The company trades at a premium to its net asset value because investors pay extra for the leverage component - the difference between what debt holders require as returns versus equity holders. But something changed after the bitcoin ETF launched. Institutional investors could now get direct bitcoin exposure without the MicroStrategy premium. Yet the treasury company trend accelerated rather than slowed down. The New Generation of Crypto Treasury Companies CANADA - 2025/05/01: In this photo illustration, the SharpLink Gaming logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Recent examples show how the playbook evolved: SharpLink Gaming arranged a $425 million private placement specifically to buy ethereum, transforming from a sports betting technology company into an ethereum holding vehicle. Upexi raised over $300 million across multiple rounds in 2025 to accumulate 1.9 million Solana tokens worth approximately $380 million. GameStop issued $1.5 billion in convertible notes to purchase 4,710 bitcoin, with plans for additional debt offerings. Bit Origin announced plans to raise $500 million specifically for a dogecoin treasury. The pattern is consistent: companies pivot to crypto, announce massive fundraising rounds, and their stock prices surge on speculation. Why Crypto Treasury Prices Aren't Moving Crypto Markets NEW YORK, NY - MAY 13: Ran Neuner attends Consensus 2019 at the Hilton Midtown on May 13, 2019 in ... More New York City. (Photo by) Here's Neuner's key insight that most observers miss: these treasury companies aren't actually net buyers of crypto. They're simply redistribution mechanisms. Take SharpLink Gaming's ethereum deal. The $425 million didn't come from cash-heavy institutions looking to buy ethereum. It came from crypto investors who already held ethereum and wanted to exchange it for publicly traded shares at a premium. The process works like this, as Neuner describes it: In other words, crypto native investors (VCs, early adopters, institutions) contribute their existing crypto holdings to the treasury company and receive an equivalent mount in shares. But once the 'treasury' company is announced, the shares immediately trade at 2-4 times net asset value on public markets. Then, the crypto investors sell some shares to retail investors, recouping their original crypto investment and they're left with additional "free" shares representing their premium. It's essentially a way for crypto insiders to sell their holdings to traditional finance investors at a markup, without actually moving the underlying crypto markets or having to go through complex regulatory processes for old crypto assets of uncertain origin. The Crypto Treasury Numbers Don't Add Up for Real Buying Look at Upexi's trajectory. The company claims to have accumulated 1.9 million Solana tokens, but much of this likely came from discounted purchases of locked Solana at below-market prices, or direct contributions from crypto investors rather than open market purchases. As Ran Neuner explains, when you examine the investor lists for these treasury companies, they're populated by crypto-native funds like Arrington Capital, Electric Capital, and Pantera - firms that already hold massive crypto positions. "They all have ETH. So all they're doing is they're putting their ETH in the vehicle, they're getting the shares, they're getting shares at net asset value, the shares are opening at 20 times net asset value, they're cashing out the original investment," Neuner observes. The Ultimate Crypto Treasury Exit Strategy For wealthy crypto natives, Neuner argues, treasury companies solve several problems simultaneously: Liquidity: Large crypto holders can't easily sell billions without moving markets against themselves. Treasury companies let them "sell" to themselves at favorable valuations. Legitimacy: Converting crypto holdings into SEC-registered shares provides a cleaner asset class, potentially addressing regulatory concerns about the source of original crypto wealth. Tax advantages: Swapping crypto for shares of equivalent value may avoid capital gains triggers in many jurisdictions. Premium capture: Instead of selling crypto at market price, they effectively sell it at 2-4x through the treasury company structure. The Crypto Treasury Retail Trap As Neuner puts it: "Can you imagine you're paying $35,000 for an eth now where you can just go and buy at whatever the price is today on Coinbase." Retail investors buying these treasury company stocks are paying $3-4 for every $1 of underlying crypto value. They're betting that the shares will trade at even higher premiums, or that the underlying crypto will appreciate enough to justify the markup. This creates a dangerous leverage bubble built on speculation rather than genuine demand for the underlying assets. Each new treasury company announcement adds more leverage to the system without adding meaningful buying pressure to crypto markets. "The sooner it lands up bursting, the better because the longer it takes, the more leverage will be built up. The bigger this bubble, the bigger the smack may actually be," warns Neuner. Why the Crypto Treasury Bubble Will Burst History shows what happens to excessive leverage in crypto cycles. The 2017 cycle ended when ICO leverage collapsed. The 2021 cycle ended when algorithmic stablecoin leverage (Luna, FTX) unwound. As Neuner notes: "In every market, we're creating excess leverage into a system. We're not really adding any value or maybe we are by combining debt and equity, but there's no way that that value is equal to the crazy and ridiculous premiums that these companies are providing." When crypto markets turn bearish, these treasury companies will trade at discounts to net asset value rather than premiums. Retail investors who paid 3x for crypto exposure will see their investments collapse faster than the underlying crypto assets. The sooner this bubble deflates, the better. The longer it inflates, the more leverage builds up in the system, and the more painful the eventual unwind. The Real Impact of Crypto Treasury Companies on Crypto While treasury companies generate headlines and stock market volatility, Neuner contends their impact on actual crypto prices remains minimal. In his analysis, they're primarily vehicles for transferring crypto wealth from insiders to retail investors at inflated valuations, not mechanisms for driving new institutional adoption. Real crypto price discovery continues to happen in spot markets, through ETFs, and via genuine institutional adoption - not through the elaborate financial engineering of treasury companies trading at massive premiums to their underlying assets. The crypto treasury company phenomenon reveals more about market psychology and the hunger for leveraged crypto exposure than it does about genuine institutional demand for digital assets. Until investors recognize this distinction, they'll continue paying premiums for crypto exposure they could get more cheaply elsewhere.
Time of India
17-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Bitcoin at $250,000? Analyst who called every cycle since 2017 says it's coming — here's his playbook
Why does Ran Neuner believe Bitcoin is heading toward $250,000? Previous cycle tops: December 2017: ~$19,800 November 2021: ~$69,000 Next predicted top: Late 2025 — potentially between $200K and $300K What's the timeline for Bitcoin to hit $250,000? Live Events Aggressive cycle (shorter timeframe): Bitcoin peaks between $200K and $250K by late 2025, similar to 2017's pattern. Bitcoin peaks similar to 2017's pattern. Extended cycle (longer runway): Bitcoin pushes even higher, possibly near $300,000, by early 2026 if momentum stretches out gradually like the 2021 cycle. Is the four-year Bitcoin cycle back in full swing? What key indicators does Neuner watch to time the top? 1. Retail engagement Increased YouTube crypto searches Crypto apps rising in app store rankings Rising Google Trends data for 'Bitcoin' and 'Altcoin' 2. Altcoin leverage ratio When altcoins match or exceed Bitcoin in open interest, it's often a sign of 'peak euphoria' In 2021, altcoin over-leverage marked the final stages of the bull run 3. Social sentiment & FOMO The return of retail euphoria is often a sign the bull market is maturing Meme coins, NFTs, and speculative tokens pump aggressively near cycle tops What macroeconomic forces could push Bitcoin price even higher? US Debt ceiling expansion: Over $4 trillion in new liquidity injected into the financial system Over in new liquidity injected into the financial system Fed rate cuts expected: Dovish monetary policy could weaken the dollar and push investors toward scarce assets Dovish monetary policy could weaken the dollar and push investors toward scarce assets Bitcoin ETF flows surging: Institutional demand has been steady since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped from 106 in early 2024 to 101.2 in July 2025, showing weakening strength—often bullish for Bitcoin. Will altcoin season look different in this bull run? Bitcoin – the foundation of the market – the foundation of the market Institutional and DeFi coins – including Layer 1 platforms like Ethereum, Solana, and Sui, plus DEXs and lending protocols – including Layer 1 platforms like Ethereum, Solana, and Sui, plus DEXs and lending protocols 'Zombie coins' – tokens with no real use case or adoption that won't recover – tokens with no real use case or adoption that won't recover Memecoin casinos – high-risk plays for retail chasing quick 10x returns What's in Ran Neer's 'conservative' crypto portfolio? 20% Bitcoin 25% crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD), which have outperformed many tokens like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD), which have outperformed many tokens Heavy allocation to Layer 1 chains and decentralized exchanges, including platforms like Hyperliquid, Radium (which he believes has an 'easy 5x potential'), and Aerodrome on Coinbase's Base network How does Neuner's forecast compare with other Bitcoin price predictions? Source 2025 Price Target Comments Ran Neuner $250K (base), $300K (max) Based on cycle momentum, macro, and retail behavior Charles Edwards (Capriole) $250K (best-case) Using Bitcoin Energy Value + 2x valuation Expert Panel Avg: $144,000 High: $250K Survey of 40+ fintech and crypto analysts Standard Chartered Bank $150K Driven by ETF demand and institutional inflows Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) $600K–$1M (by 2030) Long-term, innovation-driven projection What's the key to surviving a crypto bull market? The hares chase the hottest trends—AI tokens, new L1s, memecoins—and often show flashy gains early on The tortoises stick to long-term strategies and projects with real value—they don't make as much noise, but they tend to keep more of their profits by the end of the cycle Could Bitcoin really hit $250K—or even $300K—this cycle? Watch macro signals (Fed moves, debt issuance, inflation) (Fed moves, debt issuance, inflation) Track retail sentiment (YouTube trends, altcoin leverage) (YouTube trends, altcoin leverage) Be prepared to exit early—don't try to time the exact top FAQs: (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Bitcoin price prediction 2025 is turning heads after crypto expert Ran Neer—who's accurately called every crypto cycle since 2017—laid out his bold vision for the months ahead. With Bitcoin trading close to its all-time highs and major macro shifts in play, Neer believes we could be entering 'the most aggressive part of the bull market' right now. And if history repeats, Bitcoin could hit $200,000–$250,000 by the end of this the man behind the world's first televised crypto show and the founder of CryptoBanter, says the market is following a familiar four-year pattern. But this time, the cycle might not just be short and explosive—it could also last longer, with a more sustainable rally that pushes BTC toward $300,000. Here's a closer look at his blueprint and why he thinks this cycle could be Neuner's entire thesis is built on the, which is largely based on Bitcoin's halving schedule. Each halving—when the block reward is cut in half—historically sparks a strong bull run about 12–18 months to Neuner,of the current cycle, and Bitcoin could accelerate toward the $250,000 mark if macro and retail conditions outlines two potential scenarios:According to Neer, crypto markets have a tendency to follow a predictable rhythm: a four-year cycle. Past bull runs peaked in December 2017 and again in November 2021. If that pattern holds, we're on track for a 2024 peak—possibly by says signs are already pointing to this: rising retail interest, more YouTube engagement, and altcoins starting to outperform Bitcoin. These, he explains, are the traditional markers of an approaching cycle top. But he isn't necessarily hoping for a quick climax. A more gradual and prolonged rally could send prices even higher—possibly up to $300, of just price targets, Neuner uses behavioral and macro indicators to anticipate the market's peak:A major piece of Neer's prediction ties into broader economic changes. The U.S. recently approved a massive $4 trillion debt ceiling expansion. That means more money entering the system—money that could easily flow into risk assets like that with potential interest rate cuts and a Trump-led administration avoiding new tariffs, and you've got what Neer calls 'a very, very, very good scenario' for crypto. A weakening U.S. dollar would only add fuel to the fire as global investors shift their capital to digital assets that aren't tied to any one argues that macro conditions in 2025 areWhile Bitcoin grabs headlines, Neer warns that this altcoin cycle won't look like those of the past. There are now thousands of altcoins, making it impossible for all of them to rise he expects the market to break into three categories:In short, smart money will likely flow into a small group of solid projects, not across the investment approach has shifted over the years from high-risk bets to what he now calls a 'conservative' but high-upside strategy. His current portfolio looks like this:According to Neer, trading activity will always happen somewhere, and DEXs are the infrastructure that will benefit regardless of market Neuner isn't the only one calling for a massive Bitcoin move. Here's how his target stacks up:Beyond price predictions and portfolio picks, Neer emphasizes a deeper lesson: survival. In his 'tortoise vs hare' analogy, he contrasts two types of investors:'Crypto is not about how much money you make,' Neer says. 'It's about how much money you end up keeping.'With momentum building, the Bitcoin price prediction of $250,000 by the end of 2024 doesn't sound as far-fetched as it once did. Neer's blueprint combines historical patterns, on-chain signals, and macroeconomic shifts to build a compelling case for a massive BTC track record—calling tops and bottoms in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022—gives weight to his current thesis. And with macro tailwinds, institutional demand, and historical cycle timing lining up,If you're planning to ride this potential wave, make sure you:Whether this cycle ends with a short spike or a long, drawn-out rally, one thing is clear: smart positioning and disciplined strategy will separate winners from the rest. And with Bitcoin possibly targeting $250K or more, the next few months could prove to be a defining moment for crypto Neer predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 or more by the end of suggests Layer 1s like Solana and Ethereum, plus DEX tokens like Radium and Aerodrome.
