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Iraq Business
27-06-2025
- Politics
- Iraq Business
Iraq's Fragile Stability "is Threatened by a Shifting ME Order"
By Dr Renad Mansour, for Chatham House. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. Iraq's fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order For the first time in recent memory, Iraq has found itself on the margins of a major Middle Eastern conflict rather than at its epicentre. Open conflict between Iran and Israel arrived during a rare window of relative stability and developmental progress. Yet, this moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order. Click here to download the full report. Tags: Chatham House, Iran, Israel, Renad Mansour, United States
New York Post
19-06-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
Iran's ‘Axis of Resistance' are abandoning the Islamic Republic in its fight against Israel: ‘Time to keep your head down'
Iran's once-feared 'Axis of Resistance' has appeared to have turned its back on the Islamic Republic — leaving the theocracy high and dry as it fights for its survival and waning influence in the Middle East, according to experts. While Tehran has spent decades building up militias in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, most of the groups have found themselves battered in recent years, making them unable and unwilling to take on the Jewish state and support Iran. Instead, the once-devoted Iranian proxies — which include Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Shiite militias — are focused on their own survival. Some have even lost their faith in Iran's ability to protect them. 'For all of these networks right now, it's about survival. They all understand the wrath of these types of military campaigns,' Renad Mansour, a senior fellow and Iraq Initiative project director at the Chatham House think tank told the Wall Street Journal. 6 Iran has found itself increasingly isolated and with little allies to turn to amid the escalating battle with Israel. Getty Images 6 The Houthi-rebels in Yemen are one of the few groups publicly supporting Iran, but the terror group has accomplished little since the conflict began last week. AP 'Many of them question if this is the time for resistance or whether it's the time to keep your head down and try to stay out of this conflict,' he added. The ongoing war in Gaza has claimed about 20,000 Hamas fighters and destroyed the vast majority of its terror infrastructure, according to the Israeli military — with the group only launching a few missiles over the border following the start of the conflict with Iran. Hezbollah — which was once considered Iran's most powerful proxy — has been similarly crippled following last year's war campaign in Lebanon, which saw the Israel Defense Forces wipe out nearly all of the terror group's leaders, including founder Hassan Nasrallah. Israel's surprise pager attack last September, which killed dozens of Hezbollah militants and wounded thousands more, also left a lasting chilling effect, with Arab diplomats telling the WSJ that the group is prioritizing its recovery rather than jumping into another conflict. Some members of the paramilitary group also feel that Iran did little to protect them from the pager attack, with some Hezbollah figures going so far as to blame the intelligence failures in part on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the diplomats said. 6 Hamas is struggling to keep its hold on Gaza amid the renewed fighting and Israeli occupation. AP While Hezbollah had fired nearly daily missiles at Israel following the start of the war in Gaza, the group has yet to fire a single rocket after its patrons in Iran were attacked last week. Lebanese officials, who are maintaining the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, have also warned the group to stay out of the conflict after Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly stated on Monday that their nation will not be dragged into another war. Tehran also lost another of its major supporters late last year when Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was ousted from office in a lightning revolution. 6 Hezbollah is still reeling from its own fight with Israel, with Lebanese officials warning the Iran-backed group from getting involved in another war. AP Assad's toppling marked a huge blow to Iran's influence in the Middle East, which was only further emphasized after reports emerged that Iran did not order its allied militias to help Assad, a long-time ally, and instead called on the groups to evacuate. Meanwhile, in Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias have yet to target US military bases like they've done so in the past. The groups are allegedly wary of entering war now that several members of their leadership have entered the government and are enjoying a lucrative period under the country's oil-based economy, according to Arab diplomats with knowledge of the internal discussions. 6 Houthi supporters in Yemen's capital burn an Israeli and American flag. AP 'They've been sort of benefiting from Iraq's stability, in a way, and the high oil prices to develop economic empires,' said Mansour of the dozens of Iran-backed groups. Only a single group in Iraq, Kataeb Hezbollah, has issued a statement on the conflict, warning that it would only get involved if the US were to directly join the fray. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels have expressed support for Iran publicly, stating that they will target Israeli and US ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over the missile attacks on Tehran. 6 Smoke clouds billow at Tehran's Shahran oil depot following an Israeli strike. via REUTERS The terror group has also fired missiles at Israel in response to the new conflict, with the rebels touting that future attacks will be held in direct coordination with Iran. Analysts, however, believe the show of force is only to maintain appearances. 'It's a Houthi-first policy,' Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East expert and the head of the University of Cambridge's Girton College, told the WSJ. 'They're not going to put their own necks on the line for the supreme leader. They're going to figure out what's actually best for them,' she added. The Houthis' terror infrastructure has been decimated over the past year by repeated American and British airstrikes. The US attacks in March and April, which were the subject of the SignalGate controversy, left the Houthis missile and drone launch sites significantly degraded, according to US officials.
