Latest news with #RenaissanceMacro
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Waller Already Acting Like Shadow Chair: RenMac's Dutta
Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro, makes the case for Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller to be the next Fed Chair and says he's already making the argument for rate cuts and acting like a shadow chair. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Continuing jobless claims reach highest level since November 2021, initial claims hover at 8-month high
Weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained at their highest level in eight months during the first full week of June while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 248,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending June 7, flat from the week prior and above economists' expectations for 242,000. Meanwhile, 1.956 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.902 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. The data's release comes as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. "Continuing jobless claims keep rising to fresh highs," Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Thursday morning. "This means unemployment is going up. Initial claims have perked up but remain tame by comparison. Taken at face value, it implies that rates of hiring have declined even if rates of firing have not materially increased." Other recent data has showed signs of a slowly cooling labor market as hiring slows. The US economy added 139,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, below the 177,000 added in April. Revisions to prior reports revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in April and March than initially thought. Meanwhile, ADP data showed the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. The labor data, combined with recent inflation reports that have showed price increases cooling, has heated up debate on when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next. Traders are now betting there is a 25% chance the Fed cuts rates at least once by the end of its July meeting, up from a 19% chance seen a day ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Dutta said, "Because uncertainty is high and the Fed is waiting, the scale of the policy mistake could be that much larger if inflation fails to turn up the way they assume!" Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. While some strategists are doubtful that the stock market's recent rally has legs, Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro's chairman and head of technical research, sees an indicator pointing to a robust bull market ahead. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Another positive signal deGraaf sees in the market is the ratio of bulls to bears. While there are more bears than bulls in the market, the number of bulls is rising. Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy. "That tends to be the last holdout of information for that escape velocity that ends up being bullish," deGraaf said. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. While some strategists are doubtful that the stock market's recent rally has legs, Jeff deGraaf, Renaissance Macro's chairman and head of technical research, sees an indicator pointing to a robust bull market ahead. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Another positive signal deGraaf sees in the market is the ratio of bulls to bears. While there are more bears than bulls in the market, the number of bulls is rising. Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy. "That tends to be the last holdout of information for that escape velocity that ends up being bullish," deGraaf said. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
This 'escape velocity' signal that flashed before the 2024 stock-market rally points to a new bull run
Jeff deGraaf sees a robust stock market recovery signaled by a 20-day high thrust. The indicator points to a potential bull market after a sustainable bottom. Despite potential short-term volatility, long-term gains are expected with rising bullish sentiment. Last week, the 20-day high thrust, which deGraaf calls an "escape velocity" signal, flashed. The indicator, which looks at the price action of S&P 500 stocks, is triggered when over 20% of stocks hit 20-day highs. As of May 12, 57.65% of stocks had hit a 20-day high. According to this indicator, the stock market could be safely in bull territory after hitting a sustainable bottom. "This 20-day high rule just tells us that breadth and money are coming into the market on a wholesale basis," deGraaf said on his weekly webinar on May 13. "You just don't find these things happening in the midst of a bear market." When it triggers, the market tends to do very well the year afterwards. Historically, the stock market has rallied an average of 16% 12 months out, signaling that the market is likely to have reached a durable bottom. Most recently, the escape velocity signal was also triggered in late 2023 and briefly again in August 2024 — two periods that preceded a stock-market run-up. That doesn't mean there won't be any pullbacks, though. Within a year of the signal flashing, the average drawdown has been around 10%. While investors should buckle up for short-term volatility, the overall impact of the escape velocity indicator points to gains over the 12 months ahead. Renaissance Macro Annualized average daily returns are at their highest when sentiment is overall negative but gradually recovering. "Historically, this is easily the best zone to be in, when you have a proliferation of bears but that is starting to contract," deGraaf said. Going forward, deGraaf is looking for a higher percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average to rise above 90% for a confirmation that the lows are in. A higher percentage of stocks trending above their 20-day moving average means the market rally is broad and healthy.
