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Bangkok Post
2 days ago
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Should the US join China's WWII event?
The latest Victory Day parade in Moscow marking the 80th anniversary of Germany's independence defeat in May will be bookended in the upcoming September with a commemorative parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing marking the defeat of Japan. Of the "Big Five" victor nations, only the leaders of China and Russia will be on the rostrum, with no confirmed plans for US, UK or French leaders to attend. Two leading Chinese opinion leaders, Jin Canrong of Renmin University, formerly of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Wang Xiangwei, former editor of the South China Morning Post, have suggested that China should invite the US to join the event at Tiananmen. This tantalising possibility was flagged by internet maven Wang Zichen in his Pekingnology newsletter Nice try, guys. This is a bold gesture at a time of immense diplomatic turmoil, a time when it's worth a try to think out of the box, but it's unlikely to work. Any gathering at which Vladimir Putin is party to will project mixed messages and crossed signals at odds with the spirit of the original victory against global fascism. Winners of the war never tire of the narrative that Germany and Japan were the bad guys, on the wrong side of history, but both those countries have transformed themselves beyond recognition. The Soviet Union and the United States emerged triumphant in 1945, of course, with immense leverage between them in shaping the peace of the post-war world order. But the fleeting solidarity enjoyed in that moment of victory was frittered away as the two very different nations turned competitors, contenders and Cold War adversaries in the rush to determine who controlled what and where and on whose terms. China was on the winning side, but its legacy is most pronounced as a victim nation. Its losses under Imperial Japanese aggression were among the most catastrophic in history, with estimates of 35 million dead or more, and while it is natural that China should want to celebrate the moment that the horror of Japanese occupation ended, China did not end it. Some will argue the horrific bomb dropped on Hiroshima did the job, others credit the Soviet Union's late but formidable arrival in Manchuria. Chinese of all political factions fought bravely and made great sacrifices, but China was part occupied, part battleground and part rump state. The KMT in Chungking offered continuity of governance, but were not winners on the battlefield. Chiang Kai-shek's family ties and diplomatic links to the US gave him a seat at the table at the Cairo Conference and subsequent discussions about reordering a broken world order. It is fitting and proper that China should be among those who salute the march of history in 1945. But what about Britain? Under Winston Churchill's leadership, the UK correctly perceived Adolf Hitler to be the enemy of all mankind, even before the Nazi's went on the rampage and began to pound London with bombs. In the face of an insuperable threat, the UK, like China, did its best to delay the march of armies it couldn't singlehandedly stop. What both did, significantly, was to communicate to the world that fascism was everyone's struggle. Long before the US entered either the Pacific or Atlantic theatre of the war, Washington was beseeched with pleas from old friends in both China and England to pay attention, to lend support, to get involved. Both frontline countries did much to convince the more powerful but geographically isolated US to join in. Of the five big powers, France got a seat at the table despite its collaboration with the Nazis because of Charles de Gaulle's guerrilla war against the Nazis. France surrendered to Nazi occupation under the guise of cooperation, only to turn on them when US intervention became a game-changer. A similar pattern of biding time took place in the vast swathes of China. Much of the coast was occupied directly by Japan, such as in Manchuria, or indirectly ruled under the aegis of pro-Tokyo collaborationist Wang Jingwei. Today, as several serious regional wars are already raging across the globe, the spectre of world war cannot be entirely dismissed. Commemoration of World War II can offer a useful perspective if the ceremonies are not hijacked for partisan benefit or are tone-deaf to the past. The presence of Mr Putin as a guest of honour at the Beijing parade, presents a problem. No one can deny the great contribution to victory that was made by the USSR in bringing the World War to an end in 1945, but the past is another country. Furthermore, the absence of the US, Britain and arguably France, makes for a lopsided affair. It becomes instead a commemoration of convenience, serving present needs without really taking an honest look at what the fight against fascism was fighting against. In the Western press, Mr Putin has been compared to Hitler, and as historically inaccurate as that may be, Mr Putin did recently invade Ukraine upon which he continues to wreak death and sow hatred. Russia's blatant aggression has put all of Europe on edge, setting into motion some of the same dynamics seen in continental Europe when the Allies grappled with the rising German threat of the 1940s. Another reason why it's worth being sceptical about the US joining China and Russia to praise the heroism of a bygone struggle against fascism is the confused state of affairs in the US at this time. Donald Trump, self-styled strongman leader of the US, has introduced elements of fascism to his authoritarian ruling style at home and abroad. Oblivious to the nuances of history, he recently crowed about the success of his attack on Iran, comparing it to dropping the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. Finally, there is the question of where Germany and Japan, the two aggressor nations so soundly defeated by the Allies and Soviets in 1945, stand in today's world. It's one thing to crow about victory over the bad guys while the smoke is still clearing, but the smoke cleared 80 years ago and the world is a very different place now, with Germany and Japan rule-bound, cooperative, diplomatic and peace-abiding. Sad to say, the two aggressor states of World War II are in many ways exemplars of the post-war peace, while the Allied victors, especially Russia and the US, are looking more and more like aggressors these days.
The Star
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Star
Trump, Xi tipped to meet ahead of or during APEC summit in South Korea, SCMP reports
US President Donald Trump might visit China before going to the APEC summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the APEC event in South Korea, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday citing multiple sources. According to SCMP, Trump might visit China before going to the Apec summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Apec event. According to South Korean media reports, Xi plans to attend the event in Gyeongju, but Trump's participation is yet to be confirmed. Earlier this month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had their first face-to-face meeting – a potentially important step towards the two presidents meeting. Meanwhile, in a phone call last month, Xi invited Trump and his wife to visit China, an invitation the US president reciprocated. Rubio told reporters after meeting Wang that there was a 'strong desire on both sides' for a meeting between the two presidents. Analysts said a meeting in China before the Apec summit or on the sidelines was the most likely scenario, adding that Trump may visit Shanghai or another location rather than Beijing, to distinguish it from his 2017 visit to the Chinese capital. Diao Daming, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said: 'Under favourable conditions and an appropriate atmosphere, any form of interaction between the two leaders will aid in the stabilisation and development of US-China relations.' A meeting between Trump and Xi would be beneficial from China's point of view, according to Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, who cited her discussions with Chinese counterparts. 'They maintain that a leaders' meeting could create greater stability in the relationship,' Glaser said. 'It would also present an opportunity for Xi to press Trump to ease some restrictions on technology and reaffirm that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence – and perhaps say that the US supports peaceful reunification.' Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory that must be reunited with mainland China, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise it as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the island by force and is legally bound to provide arms to help it defend itself. Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy, said a direct leaders' meeting would be beneficial for breaking the impasse on issues such as fentanyl and tariffs. 'If certain issues can be clarified directly through a summit between the two leaders, I believe we could see relatively swift breakthroughs in specific areas of US-China relations, where leaders could effectively mobilise efforts at the working level.' Chen Qi, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua, said: 'Both sides are indeed working to create a conducive atmosphere for a meeting. Despite some fluctuations since June, there was a mutual effort to establish an improved atmosphere for a potential meeting' As long as the pair can achieve a certain degree of 'mutual cooperation', particularly on issues that Trump cares about such as trade and export controls, it would foster positive interactions, Chen added. Diplomatic observers agreed Trump wanted the meeting more than Xi, handing an advantage to Beijing. 'It's up to China. Trump would be on a plane to Beijing tomorrow if he could,' said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. 'China is very protocol driven and wants all agreements lined up well in advance while Trump would be happy to hash it all out over a Big Mac.' However, analysts warned that several factors could jeopardise a meeting, including Taiwan or the actions of the more hawkish elements in Washington. 'The summit will be well telegraphed in advance,' said Chan. 'But all it would take would be one slip up along the way to derail the whole thing.' Diao said that if the US insisted on containing China or 'interfering' over Taiwan, it would create obstacles to the leaders' meeting. Reports that Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te intends to transit in the US ahead of a trip to the island's Latin American allies have already prompted condemnation from Beijing. Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the prospects for a meeting were uncertain and Beijing would closely monitor how the US handles Lai's transit. 'If significant provocative incidents occur during Lai's transit, or if Washington extends an overly high-profile reception, it could erode the goodwill and trust that have been painstakingly built up to this point.' But Chen predicted that Trump would not play the Taiwan card during the summit preparations. Analysts said the summit was likely to have a visible lead-up if it was on track, citing the meeting between Rubio and Wang as a possible first step and Trump's decision to allow Nvidia to sell AI chips to China. They said there may be other signs of progress – such as meetings on fentanyl, US export controls and rare earths – as well as a possible further meeting between Rubio and Wang. Chan of Eurasia Group said Beijing was likely to keep the sanctions it imposed on Rubio as a senator over his comments on human rights, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Taiwan, to keep some leverage and avoid the impression it was bowing to Washington. But if he were to visit China, a 'suspension' or some other face-saving arrangement would probably be worked out. Details for the story are from reports by SCMP and Reuters
12-06-2025
- Business
Critical minerals give China an edge in trade negotiations
GANZHOU, China -- China's dominance over critical minerals in global supply chains was a powerful bargaining chip in trade talks between Beijing and Washington that concluded with both sides saying they have a framework to pursue a deal. China has spent decades building the world's main industrial chain for mining and processing such materials, which are used in many industries such as electronics, advanced manufacturing, defense and health care. Mines and factories in and around Ganzhou, a key production hub for rare earths, underpin China's control over the minerals. Many residents grew up collecting rocks containing the valuable minerals from the forested hills surrounding the southern city and today make a living from mining, trading or processing them. Responding to ever higher tariffs and other controls on advanced technology, China told exporters of certain key rare earths and other critical minerals to obtain licenses for every shipment abroad. Approvals can take weeks, leading to supply chain disruptions in the U.S. and other countries. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that China would make it easier for American industry to obtain much-needed needed magnets and rare earth minerals, clearing the way for talks to continue between the world's two biggest economies. In return, Trump said, the U.S. will stop efforts to revoke the visas of Chinese nationals on U.S. college campuses. But details remain scarce. Beijing has not confirmed what the negotiators agreed to, and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump himself have yet to sign off on it. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Saturday it had approved a 'certain number' of export licenses for rare earth products, apparently acknowledging Trump's personal request to Xi during a phone call last week. And on Wednesday, the Ganzhou-based rare-earth conglomerate JL MAG Rare-Earth Co. confirmed it had obtained some export licenses for shipments to destinations including the U.S., Europe and Southeast Asia. Experts say, however, Beijing is unlikely to do away with the permit system enabling it to control access to those valuable resources. The only scenario in which China might deregulate its critical minerals export is if the U.S. first fully removes tariffs imposed on Chinese goods as part of the trade war, said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University, echoing the Chinese government's earlier stance. 'Without that,' he said, 'it will be difficult to blame China for continuing to strengthen its export controls.' In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, the leader who launched China's ascent as the world's biggest manufacturing power, famously said 'the Middle East has oil, China has rare earths,' signaling a desire to leverage access to the key minerals. Several generations later, Beijing has made its rich reserves of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals that are abundant in the earth's crust but hard, expensive and environmentally polluting to process, a key element of China's economic security. In 2019, during a visit to a rare earth processing plant in Ganzhou, Xi described rare earths as a 'vital strategic resource.' China today has an essential monopoly over 'heavy rare earths,' used for making powerful, heat-resistance magnets used in industries such as defense and electric vehicles. The country also produces around 80% of the world's tungsten, gallium and antimony, and 60% of the world's germanium -– all minerals used in the making of semiconductors, among other advanced technologies. The risks of dependency on Chinese suppliers first came into focus in 2010, when Beijing suspended rare earths exports to Japan due to a territorial dispute. The ban was lifted after about two months, but as a precaution, Japan invested in rare earths processing plants in other countries and began stockpiling the materials. Beijing's across-the-board requirement for export licenses for some critical minerals has put pressure on world electronics manufacturers and automakers. Some auto parts makers in Europe have shut down production lines due to delays in supply deliveries, according to the European Association of Automotive Suppliers. In the U.S., Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a shortage of rare earths is affecting his company's work on humanoid robots. In the drab industrial hub of Ganzhou, cradled by the scenic Dayu Mountains, the U.S.-China trade war is still a distant stressor. Miners and small mineral traders interviewed by The Associated Press said they are more concerned about depleting the mountains' once-abundant resources. Zhong, a tungsten factory manager in Ganzhou who would only give his last name, worked his way up to manager from a miner, but he's unsure there is a future for him and others in the industry. 'I find growing difficulties to source tungsten these days,' he said, adding that smaller mines and trading companies are slowly disappearing as the resources are dwindling. Tungsten is an ultra-hard metal used in armor-piercing ammunition, nuclear reactors and semiconductors. At least five tungsten mines have closed in the area in recent years, according to state media. Remaining reserves are deeper and harder to extract and process after decades of exploitation, said Li Shangkui, chairman of the Ganzhou-based Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. Processing factories in Ganzhou now routinely source materials from other provinces or other countries. Zhong's plant imports some raw materials from places like Africa and Cambodia. Major state-owned and private companies in Ganzhou are also ramping up investments abroad. Tungsten producer Ganzhou Haisheng, for instance, announced last year a $25 million investment in a new tungsten plant in Thailand. Whatever the challenges in procuring raw materials, China likely will seek to maintain its dominance in critical minerals, said Fabian Villalobos, an engineer and critical minerals expert at the RAND think tank. Between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. imported at least 70% of the rare earth compounds it used from China, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It has diversified its sources in recent years, but still mainly relies on China. Since beginning his second term in office, Trump has made improving access to critical minerals a matter of national security. But the U.S. has an incredibly long way to go to catch up with China, experts say. The sole operational U.S. rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, California, is unable to separate heavy rare earths. It sends its ore to China for processing. The U.S. Defense Department has provided funding to the mine's owner, MP Materials, to build new separation facilities. It will take months to build and still only produce a fraction of what is needed. Friction over the issue has opened the way for government-backed financing that was unavailable before, said Mark Smith, who ran the Mountain Pass mine in the early 2010s and now leads NioCorp. It's seeking about $780 million in financing through the U.S. Export-Import Bank to build a processing facility in Nebraska for critical minerals including rare earths. The Defense Department has committed $439 million to building domestic rare earth supply chains, but building a complete mining and processing industrial chain like China's could take decades. 'There are going to be some real issues here unless we can figure out how to get along with China for a period of time while we're developing our own resources and our mainstream processing,' Smith said. The spotlight on critical minerals also provides opportunities for smaller miners to invest in extracting and processing some critical minerals, such as tungsten, considered 'niche' because they are needed in relatively small amounts in key industries, said Milo McBride, an expert on sustainability and geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'For many of these companies, the business strategy hedges on a scenario where the U.S. and China become more confrontational and where trade relations become more uncomfortable,' McBride said. 'And all of a sudden, what was once an uneconomic project somewhere outside of China starts to make more sense.'
Japan Today
12-06-2025
- Business
- Japan Today
Critical minerals give China an edge in trade negotiations
A town is built among the hills near Ganzhou in southern China's Jiangxi province on March 19. By SIMINA MISTREANU China's dominance over critical minerals in global supply chains was a powerful bargaining chip in trade talks between Beijing and Washington that concluded with both sides saying they have a framework to pursue a deal. China has spent decades building the world's main industrial chain for mining and processing such materials, which are used in many industries such as electronics, advanced manufacturing, defense and health care. Mines and factories in and around Ganzhou, a key production hub for rare earths, underpin China's control over the minerals. Many residents grew up collecting rocks containing the valuable minerals from the forested hills surrounding the southern city and today make a living from mining, trading or processing them. Responding to ever higher tariffs and other controls on advanced technology, China told exporters of certain key rare earths and other critical minerals to obtain licenses for every shipment abroad. Approvals can take weeks, leading to supply chain disruptions in the U.S. and other countries. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that China would make it easier for American industry to obtain much-needed needed magnets and rare earth minerals, clearing the way for talks to continue between the world's two biggest economies. In return, Trump said, the U.S. will stop efforts to revoke the visas of Chinese nationals on U.S. college campuses. But details remain scarce. Beijing has not confirmed what the negotiators agreed to, and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump himself have yet to sign off on it. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Saturday it had approved a 'certain number' of export licenses for rare earth products, apparently acknowledging Trump's personal request to Xi during a phone call last week. And on Wednesday, the Ganzhou-based rare-earth conglomerate JL MAG Rare-Earth Co. confirmed it had obtained some export licenses for shipments to destinations including the U.S., Europe and Southeast Asia. Experts say, however, Beijing is unlikely to do away with the permit system enabling it to control access to those valuable resources. The only scenario in which China might deregulate its critical minerals export is if the U.S. first fully removes tariffs imposed on Chinese goods as part of the trade war, said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University, echoing the Chinese government's earlier stance. 'Without that,' he said, 'it will be difficult to blame China for continuing to strengthen its export controls.' In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, the leader who launched China's ascent as the world's biggest manufacturing power, famously said 'the Middle East has oil, China has rare earths,' signaling a desire to leverage access to the key minerals. Several generations later, Beijing has made its rich reserves of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals that are abundant in the earth's crust but hard, expensive and environmentally polluting to process, a key element of China's economic security. In 2019, during a visit to a rare earth processing plant in Ganzhou, Xi described rare earths as a 'vital strategic resource.' China today has an essential monopoly over 'heavy rare earths,' used for making powerful, heat-resistance magnets used in industries such as defense and electric vehicles. The country also produces around 80% of the world's tungsten, gallium and antimony, and 60% of the world's germanium -– all minerals used in the making of semiconductors, among other advanced technologies. The risks of dependency on Chinese suppliers first came into focus in 2010, when Beijing suspended rare earths exports to Japan due to a territorial dispute. The ban was lifted after about two months, but as a precaution, Japan invested in rare earths processing plants in other countries and began stockpiling the materials. Beijing's across-the-board requirement for export licenses for some critical minerals has put pressure on world electronics manufacturers and automakers. Some auto parts makers in Europe have shut down production lines due to delays in supply deliveries, according to the European Association of Automotive Suppliers. In the U.S., Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a shortage of rare earths is affecting his company's work on humanoid robots. In the drab industrial hub of Ganzhou, cradled by the scenic Dayu Mountains, the U.S.-China trade war is still a distant stressor. Miners and small mineral traders interviewed by The Associated Press said they are more concerned about depleting the mountains' once-abundant resources. Zhong, a tungsten factory manager in Ganzhou who would only give his last name, worked his way up to manager from a miner, but he's unsure there is a future for him and others in the industry. 'I find growing difficulties to source tungsten these days,' he said, adding that smaller mines and trading companies are slowly disappearing as the resources are dwindling. Tungsten is an ultra-hard metal used in armor-piercing ammunition, nuclear reactors and semiconductors. At least five tungsten mines have closed in the area in recent years, according to state media. Remaining reserves are deeper and harder to extract and process after decades of exploitation, said Li Shangkui, chairman of the Ganzhou-based Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. Processing factories in Ganzhou now routinely source materials from other provinces or other countries. Zhong's plant imports some raw materials from places like Africa and Cambodia. Major state-owned and private companies in Ganzhou are also ramping up investments abroad. Tungsten producer Ganzhou Haisheng, for instance, announced last year a $25 million investment in a new tungsten plant in Thailand. Whatever the challenges in procuring raw materials, China likely will seek to maintain its dominance in critical minerals, said Fabian Villalobos, an engineer and critical minerals expert at the RAND think tank. Between 2020 and 2023, the U.S. imported at least 70% of the rare earth compounds it used from China, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It has diversified its sources in recent years, but still mainly relies on China. Since beginning his second term in office, Trump has made improving access to critical minerals a matter of national security. But the U.S. has an incredibly long way to go to catch up with China, experts say. The sole operational U.S. rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, California, is unable to separate heavy rare earths. It sends its ore to China for processing. The U.S. Defense Department has provided funding to the mine's owner, MP Materials, to build new separation facilities. It will take months to build and still only produce a fraction of what is needed. Friction over the issue has opened the way for government-backed financing that was unavailable before, said Mark Smith, who ran the Mountain Pass mine in the early 2010s and now leads NioCorp. It's seeking about $780 million in financing through the U.S. Export-Import Bank to build a processing facility in Nebraska for critical minerals including rare earths. The Defense Department has committed $439 million to building domestic rare earth supply chains, but building a complete mining and processing industrial chain like China's could take decades. 'There are going to be some real issues here unless we can figure out how to get along with China for a period of time while we're developing our own resources and our mainstream processing,' Smith said. The spotlight on critical minerals also provides opportunities for smaller miners to invest in extracting and processing some critical minerals, such as tungsten, considered 'niche' because they are needed in relatively small amounts in key industries, said Milo McBride, an expert on sustainability and geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'For many of these companies, the business strategy hedges on a scenario where the U.S. and China become more confrontational and where trade relations become more uncomfortable,' McBride said. 'And all of a sudden, what was once an uneconomic project somewhere outside of China starts to make more sense.' Associated Press news researcher Shihuan Chen contributed to this story. © Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
South China Morning Post
10-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Pressured by US tariffs, Chinese exports expand in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia
Chinese exports to major industrial centres in Southeast Asia rose by double-digit percentages in the first five months of the year to satisfy growing consumer markets, feed offshore factory investments and offset losses from high US tariffs. Advertisement Shipments to factory-magnet Vietnam increased by 18.8 per cent from January to May, compared with the same period in 2024, according to official data released on Monday. Meanwhile, exports to Thailand grew by 20.9 per cent, and Indonesia took 16.8 per cent more shipments from China. The global increase in Chinese exports was 6 per cent. Pressured by import tariffs imposed by the US, Chinese manufacturers are shipping more to factory sites in nearby Southeast Asia to make finished goods for sale locally or in Western countries – including the US itself, according to analysts. 'Exports are being diversified, bit by bit, and Southeast Asian countries are becoming more and more important trading partners,' said Zhao Xijun, a finance professor at Renmin University in Beijing. 'Economic and investment relations are becoming ever closer.' Thailand and Vietnam are particularly known for factories, some invested in by China, that make a range of items for re-export – cars and smartphones, for example. Advertisement While some exports may be transshipped from China via Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs, analysts said, factories often inject enough local content into goods from China to declare any re-exports as made in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia.
