Latest news with #ResolvePoliticalMonitor
Sydney Morning Herald
5 hours ago
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Albanese won a thumping majority. He should use it for all Australians
For both major sides of Australia politics, the opening of the 48th Parliament on Tuesday represents a time of great expectations and Herculean tasks. The outcome of the federal election has created challenges and opportunities, with the result that the returned Labor government is under renewed pressure to use its massive majority for meaningful reform after a relative milquetoast first-term agenda, especially after the failure of the Voice to parliament referendum. Meanwhile, the Coalition has to balance struggling to hold the Albanese government accountable and rebuilding from the near ruins of its electoral rout. The Herald 's latest Resolve Political Monitor illustrates the daunting job facing Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, with the first post-federal election opinion poll showing Coalition support has fallen to a near-record low of 29 per cent, down from the 31.8 per cent in the May election, with much of the ebb going to One Nation. Yet, Ley's dire predicament has not resulted in a surge of personal support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even though voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues that once were the Coalition's ace cards – Albanese's overall support as preferred prime minister has slipped seven points since April to 40 per cent. Once the Parliament House formalities are over and the new members sworn in, Labor will mark its successful return to the government benches with plans to introduce several bills over the next fortnight, including the cutting of student debt by 20 per cent and early action to cement in penalty rates. Recent abuse scandals sweeping the childcare industry has also prompted the government to prepare a bill to strip funding from childcare centres that don't meet safety standards. But it won't take long for the new government to be reminded of the immediate economic problems it faces with unemployment climbing, US President Donald Trump's tariff miasma and the runaway housing crisis showing little signs of abating. The resumption of Parliament will also lay the ground for the government's August 19-21 productivity roundtable, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers' decision to call it an 'economic reform roundtable' a clear indication of where the government is heading with its massive majority. Albanese has led Labor to an historic victory, winning 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis. When he first won government in 2022, we cautioned him to resist the temptation to constantly blame the previous government for problems it faces. Voters wanted solutions, not blame shifting. After a term in power, blaming the Coalition is no longer an option. The Coalition will be busy enough redressing the loss of the Liberal heartland, attracting women to return to the fold and stamping out the factionalism that brought the party to such a historic low.
The Age
16 hours ago
- Politics
- The Age
The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win
The first post-federal election opinion poll has revealed the scale of the battle facing Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as she seeks to rebuild a shattered Liberal Party, with support for the Coalition falling to a near-record low. But the new Resolve Political Monitor also shows that the dire situation confronting Ley has not translated into a surge of support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even as voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues ranging from the economy to national security. The 48th Parliament will on Tuesday sit for the first time since the May 3 election. Albanese holds a record 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis. At the election, the Coalition's primary vote dropped almost four percentage points to 31.8 per cent. The Resolve poll shows its primary support has fallen another three points to just 29 per cent – its lowest level since early 2023. Most of that drop has flowed to One Nation, with Labor's primary vote increasing marginally to 35 per cent. It secured 34.6 per cent at the May election. On a two-party preferred level, based on preferences as nominated by the 2311 people who took part in the poll, Labor leads the Coalition 56-44. Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said the Coalition was now in 'real strife', arguing that while the party needed a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive, it was struggling to get into the 30s. However, he cautioned that Albanese was not enjoying the honeymoon he had following the 2022 election, when Labor's primary vote regularly reached 42 per cent.
Sydney Morning Herald
16 hours ago
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win
The first post-federal election opinion poll has revealed the scale of the battle facing Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as she seeks to rebuild a shattered Liberal Party, with support for the Coalition falling to a near-record low. But the new Resolve Political Monitor also shows that the dire situation confronting Ley has not translated into a surge of support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even as voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues ranging from the economy to national security. The 48th Parliament will on Tuesday sit for the first time since the May 3 election. Albanese holds a record 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis. At the election, the Coalition's primary vote dropped almost four percentage points to 31.8 per cent. The Resolve poll shows its primary support has fallen another three points to just 29 per cent – its lowest level since early 2023. Most of that drop has flowed to One Nation, with Labor's primary vote increasing marginally to 35 per cent. It secured 34.6 per cent at the May election. On a two-party preferred level, based on preferences as nominated by the 2311 people who took part in the poll, Labor leads the Coalition 56-44. Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said the Coalition was now in 'real strife', arguing that while the party needed a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive, it was struggling to get into the 30s. However, he cautioned that Albanese was not enjoying the honeymoon he had following the 2022 election, when Labor's primary vote regularly reached 42 per cent.
The Age
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Did the polls get this election wrong?
American polling guru Nate Silver calls it the first rule of interpreting survey results: almost all polling errors occur in the opposite direction to commentators' predictions. Silver explained this rule in 2017, when many observers expected French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to do better than polls suggested in her country's presidential election. Instead, it was the centrist Emmanuel Macron who outperformed the polls. This phenomenon struck again in Saturday's federal election. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton repeatedly told reporters that the Coalition's internal research was rosier than public polls as he forecast Coalition victories in seats that weren't on anyone's radar. Some believed him, perhaps persuaded by the Coalition's surprise victory in 2019 and Donald Trump's repeated ability to outperform his poll results. Trump's success has popularised the notion there are 'shy' conservative voters who are not willing to share their political opinions with pollsters. In fact, the Australian polls published were off, but not the way Dutton hoped. They underestimated the scale of Labor's victory. 'Every poll underestimated Labor on two-party preferred and primary votes, and overestimated the Coalition,' says pollster Jim Reed, who runs the Resolve Political Monitor published by this masthead. 'Some polls got it really wrong and others slightly wrong.' Having analysed the performance of all the major pollsters, Reed is satisfied with how Resolve did. The two most accurate polls in two-party-preferred terms, he says, were Resolve and Redbridge, whose results were published in the News Corp tabloids. The final Resolve and Redbridge polls, published last week, showed Labor recording 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and the Coalition 47 per cent. The current count has Labor on 55 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, with the Coalition on 45 per cent, putting both Resolve and Redbridge within their margin of error.
The Age
05-05-2025
- Business
- The Age
Pollsters' leaked plea to Dutton as campaign faltered: ‘Lighten up, offer tax cuts'
Leaked documents show the Liberals' pollster raised the alarm about the opposition's thin tax policy and told Peter Dutton he had to lighten up as the opposition leader's popularity cratered and his party careened towards a historic loss on Saturday. Focus group studies conducted by pollster Michael Turner and seen by this masthead had been picking up a wave of negative opinions about Dutton, including an observation from one voter that he 'lacks empathy on screen when he talks' and another stating, 'I just don't like the guy, he gives me negative vibes.' As recriminations over the loss escalate and Liberals jockey to be the party's next leader, the leaked documents show voter feedback prompted Turner, of polling firm Freshwater Research, to tell Dutton to ditch his hardened and sometimes wooden exterior. In a document titled 'Project Majura' presented to Dutton and the tightest group of campaign operatives on April 30, just days out from the election, Turner wrote: 'Enjoy the campaign, with a relaxed, sincere tone, using relatable language. 'Convey a more relaxed and enthusiastic presence that signals Dutton is enjoying the campaign and engaging with voters. 'Ensure public engagements are delivered in a way that shows Dutton, and the Liberals, listen to voters, and understand what they are going through right now.' Turner and Freshwater are now under fire for providing the Liberals polling that substantially overestimated the Coalition's primary vote in both public and internal research, giving Dutton a false sense of confidence about his election chances and policy. Several public polls, including this masthead's Resolve Political Monitor, were closer to the mark after voters turned away from the Coalition over its stances on nuclear, its abortive plan to stop public servants working from home, and economic messages that failed to cut through.
