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CNA
11-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
BOJ to postpone rate hike to Q1 next year, tiny majority of economists say: Reuters poll
TOKYO :The Bank of Japan will forego another interest rate hike this year due to uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, according to a slight majority of economists in a Reuters poll who expect the next 25-basis-point increase in early 2026. Japan's central bank will slow the pace of tapering its government bond purchases from next fiscal year, a majority also said, while three in four surveyed expect the government to cut down on issuance of super-long bonds. The latest results reflect policymakers' apprehension at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies are threatening the economic outlook and as investors are increasingly concerned about Japan's public finances. The BOJ is still pushing for tighter monetary conditions, contrasting with its peers tilting for rate cuts, with its governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the central bank's readiness to keep raising interest rates if underlying inflation approaches its 2 per cent target. "If trade negotiations between the United States and other countries progress, global economic activity is likely to pick up," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "The timing of policy interest rate hikes is now more likely to be delayed compared to previous projections, but the BOJ is expected to implement an additional rate hike in the first quarter of 2026." None of the 60 economists in the June 2-10 survey expected the BOJ to raise rates at its upcoming policy meeting on June 16-17. Specifically, 52 per cent of economists, 30 of 58, expected borrowing costs to stay at 0.50 per cent at year-end, the reverse of a poll in May when 52 per cent expected rates at 0.75 per cent by end-2025. Interest rate futures are only pricing in about 17 basis points more of tightening from the BOJ by year-end. More than three-quarters of respondents, 40 of 51, now expect at least one 25-basis-point increase by end-March, the poll showed. Of 35 economists who specified a month for when the BOJ will next hike rates, January 2025 was the top choice at 37 per cent, followed by 23 per cent for October this year and 9 per cent saying March 2025. The BOJ exited a massive stimulus programme in March last year and pushed up short-term interest rates to 0.25 per cent in July and 0.50 per cent in January. Just over half of respondents, 17 of 31, said the BOJ would decelerate its pace of tapering JGB purchases from the current roughly 400 billion yen per quarter beyond April next year. Of those respondents the quarterly taper size prediction ranged from 200 billion yen to 370 billion yen. The BOJ began tapering its huge bond buying last year to wean the economy off decades of massive stimulus even though it still owns roughly half of outstanding JGBs. Three-quarters of economists, 21 of 28, said the government would trim issuance of super-long bonds while the rest said the amount would not change. Yields on super-long JGBs rose to record levels last month due to dwindling demand from traditional buyers like life insurers and concern over steadily rising debt levels. Reuters reported on Monday the government is considering buying back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of sharp rises in yields. Seventeen said the issuance of 30-year JGBs would be reduced, followed by 16 selecting 40-year and 10 choosing 20-year bonds. Survey respondents were allowed to give multiple responses. "With the auction results consistently weak, the finance ministry is facing strong pressure to reduce the amount of super-long JGBs issued from July onwards," said Kazutaka Maeda, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump's revenge machine is his only accomplishment — and MAGA is left out of it
Amid all the news these last few days about the first 100 days of Trump 2.0, there has been little written about one of his most important agenda items, and few questions about it by the various pollsters. We do know that he's underwater everywhere, starting with his flagship issues of the economy and immigration. He ran on those issues, so it's important to know what America thinks about his performance so far. But Trump had another flagship issue that was a big part of his appeal to his most fervent followers: The Washington Post/ABC/IPSOS poll asked what people think of Trump "taking measures against his political opponents," which doesn't exactly address the question of "retribution" (some might think it's about policy). But even then, 53% disapprove to 33% approve. The New York Times-Sienna poll asked whether Trump was exceeding his power (88% said yes), but that doesn't address this specific question either. 57% agreed that Trump shouldn't be allowed to withhold funding for universities in the Reuters Poll, which can be considered an act of political retribution, but is one that derives more from the right-wing extremists around Trump, such as the culture warriors who have been battling the allegedly liberal academy for decades. The polls have looked at Trump's gross abuse of power in some ways, such as the administration potentially ignoring court orders and congressional prerogatives, and majorities really don't like it. But as far as I can tell, there were no questions asking people if they approve of Donald Trump's vengeful actions against his political enemies. And that's strange since there have been a boatload of them. One of the first actions Trump took when he assumed office was to pardon all the Jan. 6 rioters. He considered that a priority because he saw their prosecution as a direct attack on the Big Lie that he had actually won the 2020 election. He reportedly was offered some names of violent criminals who should be kept behind bars and he said "f**k it — release 'em all," which gives us some idea of his mindset when it comes to his personal vendettas. He soon had the Justice Department fire 12 prosecutors assigned to the cases. His Acting U.S. Attorney for Washington D.C., Ed Martin (who happened to have been involved in the defense of some of the defendants), ordered an investigation into how the prosecutions were carried out. Prosecutors were told that they had committed a "grave national injustice." Martin has also notified one of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's deputies that he is investigating the "integrity and legality" of the Russia investigation, suggesting that the Mueller team is in the crosshairs as well, which is almost certainly the case since Trump has said for years that they should all be jailed. Meanwhile, the administration has targeted one of his major antagonists, New York Attorney General Letitia James, who led the civil prosecution against Trump for which he was found liable for nearly half a billion dollars over his fraudulent valuations of Trump Organization properties. The Federal Housing Finance Agency sent a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, accusing James of mortgage fraud. The administration has pulled the security clearances of numerous lawyers and former government officials, Trump has personally called out for investigation, including some who are now unable to work in their field. For instance, a lawyer Trump wanted investigated in the first term, Mark Zaid, represented the whistleblower who raised concerns about Trump's "perfect phone call" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That led to Trump's first impeachment, and now Zaid is no longer able to represent anyone who might want to access the whistleblower protections. The message this sends to anyone who might represent such a client is pretty obvious. And then there are the law firms, some of which were singled out for representing people Trump doesn't like and others who may have employed attorneys he has faced in court, such as Covington & Burling, which assisted Special Counsel Jack Smith, and Perkins Coie, which represented the Dominion Voting Machine Company in its defamation suits against the right wing networks that spread Trump's Big Lie. Others have been targeted supposedly for their "DEI policies" (which the administration fatuously asserts are violations of the Civil Rights Act) and have shamefully bent the knee by agreeing to do pro bono work for the administration, which Trump seems to believe makes them his personal legal servants. What it does do is take them off the table as defenders of anything that might benefit his enemies or threaten him. Luckily, some of these law firms are suing the administration rather than capitulate to his threats, and the courts so far do not seem amused. There are also the aforementioned universities, most of which seemed poised to give Trump whatever he wanted, but after a (supposed) mistaken moment of overreach, the biggest of them all, Harvard, decided to fight back. That, too, is going to be decided in the courts. Then there is the media, which he is personally suing in a couple of cases. He has the FCC going after others and is banning other reporters from working inside federal buildings. He's pulled the security details from anyone associated with the Biden family except the former president himself because he's bound by law (and probably worries that it could blow back on him when he finally leaves office). And he's singled out several people who worked in his former administration whom he sees as disloyal, starting with the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. He had his security clearance removed, despite still being under threat, and is now under investigation by the Pentagon for "undermining the chain of command" under some kind of administrative action. Milley, for his part, was preemptively pardoned by former President Joe Biden. Perhaps most ominously, Trump recently issued orders to the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security to investigate Trump's former cybersecurity expert Chris Krebs and pulled the security clearances of everyone in the company he now works at as well. Krebs' crime was to say that the 2020 election was secure, the truth. And Miles Taylor, Trump's former Chief of Staff to the Department of Homeland Security Secretary, who later revealed himself as the author of an infamous anonymous New York Times op-ed that claimed people inside the administration were keeping Trump in check, is also the subject of a DHS investigation at the direction of the president. He's targeting specific people now for serious criminal investigation. That's just the tip of the iceberg. The entire Department of Justice, under the leadership of Attorney General Pam Bondi, is being turned into a Trump revenge machine. They're even targeting judges whom she has declared to be "low-level leftists who are trying to dictate President Trump's executive powers." If an attorney general using those words doesn't make your blood run cold, you're not paying attention. Trump promised to do this even in the face of pressure from his campaign and allies not to. He will not stop until and unless the courts tell him he has to. If they do say he's gone too far, the question then is whether he will once again abuse his power and defy them. Even a large majority of Republicans don't want him to do that. But considering all he's done already, we have to be prepared for the possibility that he may just say, "f" it as he did with the J6 pardons. His thirst for revenge is unslakable.
Reuters
20-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
POLL Bearish bets further ease on Asian currencies as markets look past Trump tariffs
Summary Thai baht least shorted currency Bearish bets on Chinese yuan lowest since October, 2024 Short bets on rupee fall Feb 20 (Reuters) - Short positions on all Asian currencies were at multi-month lows on Thursday, as analysts shrugged off fears around the potential of an extended global trade war and factored in a boost in appetite towards risk-sensitive assets. Bearish stances on the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar were at their lowest since October 31, 2024, while short positions on the South Korean won eased to their lowest since early October, a Reuters Poll of 13 respondents showed. Short positions were the least on the Thai baht , which has been one of the best-performing currencies in Southeast Asia and has added over 2% since the beginning of the year. Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank, attributed the positioning on the baht to a recent rally in gold prices but expressed caution around the currency due to uncertainty from the U.S. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting revealed that President Donald Trump's initial policy proposals raised concerns about rising inflation, further clouding the central bank's timeline for potential interest rate cuts. Markets are pricing in another 45.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed at its meeting in mid-July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major rivals, has fallen 2.6% since the beginning of the month, with the markets seeing Trump's tariff threats as a negotiating strategy rather than a definitive objective. Analysts have, for a while, been scaling back their short bets on Asian currencies after Trump's initial policies showed he would take a more measured step towards tariffs than was feared. "Whilst Trump tariffs still loom, it is unclear whether they would actually be enacted or remain negotiating tools," Maybank analysts said. Short bets eased on the Indian rupee but were still firmly in bear territory after the Reserve Bank of India announced its first rate cut in nearly five years earlier this month. The RBI had also intervened heavily to shore up the struggling currency earlier this month. The rupee has declined about 1.3% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a delay in Trump's tariff proposals actually being implemented. "Looking ahead, while domestic conditions have started to stabilise post-Budget and monetary policy announcements, concerns from overseas remain, contributing to ongoing volatility in the forex market," said Dilip Parmar at HDFC Securities. "The central bank has begun intervening more aggressively in response to the surge in forex market volatility, particularly due to Trump's tariff policies." Among other currencies, short positions on the Taiwan dollar and Philippine peso were at their lowest since mid-October. Bears trimmed their stance on the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah as well. The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency): DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB 20-Feb-25 0.88 0.83 0.31 1.06 0.59 1.22 0.37 0.31 0.02 06-Feb-25 1.15 1.01 0.86 1.25 1.14 1.98 0.62 0.93 0.23 23-Jan-25 1.33 1.04 1.11 1.50 1.01 1.78 1.01 0.77 0.54 09-Jan-25 1.65 1.75 1.34 1.20 1.18 1.69 0.99 0.65 0.76 12-Dec-24 1.15 1.86 0.83 0.87 0.82 1.43 0.65 0.53 0.26 28-Nov-24 1.32 1.45 1.12 1.03 1.10 1.13 0.76 1.13 0.66 14-Nov-24 1.14 1.61 0.80 0.81 1.07 0.87 0.65 1.18 0.90 31-Oct-24 0.30 1.06 -0.03 0.59 0.60 0.82 0.11 0.81 0.09 17-Oct-24 -0.43 0.26 -0.44 0.04 0.24 0.67 -0.40 0.26 -0.28 03-Oct-24 -1.14 -0.79 -1.26 -1.08 -0.59 -0.04 -1.18 -0.70 -1.45 19-Sep-24 -0.67 -0.90 -1.12 -1.18 -0.66 0.33 -1.30 -1.10 -1.33 05-Sep-24 -0.85 -1.09 -1.26 -1.05 -0.77 0.21 -1.46 -1.00 -1.22
