2 days ago
Reforms and Oman Vision 2040 drive recovery, confidence
MUSCAT: Just a few years ago, Oman faced one of the most challenging periods in its fiscal history, grappling with plunging oil prices, mounting public debt and global disruptions that pushed the nation into a deep deficit. Today, however, Oman is on a different path — one defined by recovery, economic reforms and renewed confidence in its future.
A June 2025 report by Bahrain-based regional asset manager and investment bank SICO BSC, titled 'Rise of Oman: An Example of Fiscal Prudence,' confirms that Oman ended 2024 with a budget surplus of approximately RO 1 billion. At the same time, the country succeeded in reducing its public debt to RO 15.3 billion, equivalent to just 36.5 per cent of GDP, down from a high of 64 per cent in 2020.
The seeds of recovery were planted in 2015 when Oman faced a record budget deficit of RO 4.6 billion. In response, the government implemented aggressive cost-cutting measures. Fuel subsidies were reduced, saving RO 479 million, while electricity subsidies were trimmed by RO 386 million. Defence spending was slashed by RO 350 million and civil ministry budgets were tightly managed.
After His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik assumed leadership in 2020, Oman accelerated its fiscal reforms. The government focused on diversifying its revenue sources and enforcing strict control over expenditures, even during the Covid-19 pandemic. A major milestone was the introduction of VAT in April 2021, which raised RO 301 million in its first year. Between 2020 and 2023, tax and fee revenues increased by approximately 70 per cent, helping reduce dependence on oil revenues.
The government's restraint in public sector hiring and wages also played a role. Over the past decade, public sector salaries and benefits have remained largely flat, allowing the state to avoid long-term financial burdens and maintain greater fiscal flexibility.
Oman also benefitted from rising oil prices after 2021. While other Gulf states cut production under OPEC+ agreements, Oman maintained strong export volumes, allowing it to capitalise on market conditions. By 2024, Oman had reduced its budget breakeven oil price to $55 per barrel, down from $100 in 2014. This fiscal strength was recognised internationally when Oman's credit rating was upgraded to investment grade (BBB-) in September 2024, a move that is expected to reduce borrowing costs and improve investor confidence.
Looking ahead, the 2025 budget projects a modest deficit of RO 620 million, largely due to cautious oil price assumptions. However, analysts — including those at SICO — believe Oman could record another surplus if oil prices remain favourable. To fund priority projects, the government plans to raise RO 750 million through new bonds and sukuk this year.
With its finances stabilised, Oman is preparing for a new phase of strategic development aligned with Oman Vision 2040. Key projects include Sultan Haitham City ($2.6 billion), HyDuqm Green Hydrogen Hub ($7.5 billion) and later phases of green hydrogen expansion ($27 billion). Other major initiatives include the Duqm Green Steel Plant, the now-operational Duqm Refinery and revitalisation of Al Khuwair Downtown. Real estate and tourism projects in Yiti, a new UAE–Oman rail network and renewable energy projects such as the Ibri III Solar Plant and five wind power plants are also in the pipeline.
'These projects are not just about infrastructure,' the SICO report notes. 'They're a catalyst for national growth and investor confidence'.
Oman is also planning for the long term by broadening its tax base. A domestic minimum top-up tax will be introduced in 2025, followed by the rollout of personal income tax in 2028, representing a major policy shift in the Gulf.
At the same time, Oman's capital markets are positioned for growth. Despite returning just 15 per cent over the past decade, the market achieved 10 per cent annualised returns in the past five years. With stocks trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5x, there is potential for market re-rating.
The launch of the Tanmia Liquidity Fund in May 2024 is expected to further deepen investor participation.
Oman's transformation from fiscal fragility to financial resilience did not happen by chance. It required tough decisions, steady leadership and a focus on long-term stability. As SICO concludes, 'The fiscal consolidation achieved over the past five years provides a strong foundation for Oman to accelerate its ambitious development agenda'.
