Latest news with #RobertHogue
Time of India
12-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Home prices rise in some cities, drop in others: How Canada's property market is shifting after the trade war
People across Canada who are planning to purchase a home can enter the market as uncertainty around the trade war has started to ease, with prices dropping in certain areas. Some cities, however, remain robust with strong prices, according to an RBC economist. According to the statistics of the local real estate board, there was a modest increase in the number of transactions between May and June 2025 in several major markets, including Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, and Halifax. The gains recorded, however, constitute a fraction of pullbacks earlier this year. 'When you look at various metrics, you know buyers now have much more of a stronger hand when negotiating prices,' CTV News quoted Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist for RBC, as saying. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Golfer Ollie Schniederjans Scores A Surprise Four-Shot Victory Golf Asia Read More Undo The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dropped in Toronto, Vancouver, southern Ontario, and Lower Mainland markets, CTV News reported. Inventory in these markets has risen to historically high levels, and buyers are facing stretched affordability conditions. 'Markets in southern Ontario, as well as B.C., are soft; however, it looks like, over the last couple of months, the slide in activity appears to be now stabilizing, so things don't look like they're getting any softer from an activity perspective,' Hogue said. Live Events 'But prices continue to fall in those markets. That's likely because of a stretch of affordability that's holding back a lot of buyers who can't get up prices in the current context, and the fact that those markets are heavily in favour of buyers. At this point, there's a lot of competition between sellers and less between buyers, so those markets are seeing price declines,' he added. Meanwhile, in several other cities, the value of property continues to be on the higher side. These markets include the Prairies, Quebec, and the Atlantic region, supported by still tight (and, in some cases, very tight) supply-demand conditions. 'In other parts of the country, the situation is different,' said Hogue. 'We've seen some correction during the spring in the face of the trade war; that affected confidence across the board. But the level of activity, in most cases—I'm thinking in particular in the prairies, either in Saskatchewan or in Alberta—to a fair extent, not everywhere, but to a fair extent, the level of activity is still pretty robust. When you compare it to pre-pandemic levels, it's sort of the same situation in markets like Montreal, for example. Now we've seen a bit of a slowdown lately, but nonetheless, the level is still, I would argue, pretty comparable relative to the pre-pandemic level,' he added. Buyers in Toronto have bargaining power In Toronto, buyers have plenty of options, a situation not seen in the city in decades, as the number of homes for sale continues to surge. The trend favours buyers and gives them more time to make decisions and negotiate. Toronto's MLS HPI in June 2025 was down 5.5 per cent (or more than $58,000) year over year and lower by 0.9 per cent from May, according to CTV News. Condo apartments saw the largest drop, falling eight per cent because of an abundant supply, but every housing type experienced some loss in value. Sellers are holding back in Montreal According to RBC, Montreal's recovery has stalled this year because of the trade war. The bank estimates that resales dropped for the third consecutive month between May and June, falling by about two per cent. Still, resales are staying at levels that would have been considered strong before the pandemic. Prices see downtrend in Vancouver As far as Vancouver is concerned, the slide in resales in Vancouver is stabilizing, though prices remain firmly on a downward track. According to CTV News, Vancouver's MLS HPI declined 2.8 per cent from a year ago (2024), marking the fourth straight month of annual declines. The supply and demand situation in the city is favouring the buyers, giving them control amid rising inventories. Active listings reached a 13-year high in June, yet home resales rose for the first time this year, up more than two per cent in May.
CTV News
12-07-2025
- Business
- CTV News
Home prices favour buyers in some Canadian markets, sellers in others: RBC
Prospective homebuyers can make their way into the market, as trade war uncertainty begins to ease with prices slumping in certain areas, however some cities across the country remain robust with strong prices, according to an RBC economist. Local real estate board statistics show transactions increased modestly between May and June in several major markets, including Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto and Halifax. However, the gains only represent a fraction of pullbacks earlier this year. 'When you look at various metrics, you know buyers now have much more of a stronger hand when negotiating prices,' said Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist for RBC. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) fell in Toronto, Vancouver, southern Ontario and lower mainland markets. These are markets in the country where inventory has risen to historically high levels, and buyers face stretched affordability conditions. 'Markets in southern Ontario, as well as B.C., are soft., however it looks like, over the last couple of months, the slide in activity, appears to be now stabilizing, so things don't look like they're getting any softer from an activity perspective,' said Hogue. 'But prices continue to fall in those markets. That's likely because of a stretch of affordability that's holding back a lot of buyers that can't really get up prices in the current context, and the fact that those markets are really heavily in favour of buyers. At this point, there's a lot of competition between sellers and less between buyers, so those markets are seeing price declines.' Meanwhile, property values continue to be higher in most markets in the Prairies, Quebec and the Atlantic region, supported by still tight (and, in some cases, very tight) supply-demand conditions. 'Other parts of the country, the situation is different,' said Hogue. 'We've seen some correction during the spring in the face of the trade war, that really affected confidence across the board. But the level of activity in most cases, I'm thinking in particular in the prairies, either in Saskatchewan or in Alberta, to a fair extent, not everywhere, but to a fair extent, the level of activity is still pretty robust. When you compare it to pre-pandemic levels, sort of same situation in markets like Montreal, for example. Now we've seen a bit of a slowdown lately, but nonetheless, the level is still, I would argue, compares pretty well relative to pre-pandemic level.' Buyers in Toronto have time and bargaining power The Toronto area is experiencing an abundance of homebuying options not seen in decades as the number of homes for sale continues to surge. The trend favours buyers giving them more time to make decisions and power in negotiating prices. Toronto's MLS HPI in June was down 5.5 per cent (or more than $58,000) year over yearand lower by 0.9 per cent from May. Condo apartments recorded the biggest decline at eight per cent due to plentiful supply, but all housing types lost some value. Despite slightly improving affordability and easing trade war fears attracting more buyers to the market in June, home resales picked up 8.1 per cent from May, marking a third consecutive monthly increase. However, Hogue said recovery has a long way to go. Activity remains sluggish near cyclical lows amid growing job concerns. Sellers hold back in stalled Montreal market Montreal's recovery has stalled this year in the face of the trade war, according to RBC. The bank estimates resales slipped for a third straight month between May and June, falling approximately two per cent. However, resales are holding up at what would have been considered solid levels before the pandemic. The bank says June's modest pullback may have more to do with fewer sellers entering the market than buyers shying away. New listings fell by seven per cent from May to June,which has tightened the demand dynamic further. This has maintained price pressure on both single-family homes and condos sustaining solid appreciation last month with median prices up 7.4 per cent and 6.6 per cent from a year ago. Prices firmly on a downtrend in Vancouver The slide in resales in Vancouver is stabilizing though prices remain firmly on a down track. Vancouver's MLS HPI declined 2.8 per cent from a year ago, marking the fourth straight month of annual declines. Buyers are in the driver's seat with supply-demand conditions heavily favouring them amid mounting inventories. Active listings reached a 13-year high in June, yet home resales rose for the first time this year, up more than two percent in May. Calgary experiences a soft landing Calgary continues to cool as inventory rises and prices soften. The city's MLS HPI fell in May and June, down 3.6 per cent in the latest period, though the bank sees limited downside for property values given aligned supply and demand conditions. Calgary is a market where supply and demand are largely aligned, and affordability is only mildly strained. The city is also supported by a relatively robust economy.
Global News
03-07-2025
- Business
- Global News
Is this the easiest it's been in 3 years to own a home?
After three years of a hot housing market, full of bidding wars and homes selling for over the asking price, Canada's housing market is finally cooling off. According to a Royal Bank of Canada report, buying a home in Canada is the easiest it has been in the last three years. However, experts say the dream may still be unattainable for many. 'The positive shift in the last five quarters has helped homebuyers' prospects across all regions and housing market segments. However, it's been condo buyers that have seen the most significant turnaround,' the report said. The report predicts stable home prices over the next two years. 'We expect generally stable prices in Canada over the next two years—with some local exceptions—and modest wages growth amid persistent labour market slack,' RBC economist Robert Hogue said in the report. Story continues below advertisement Lower interest rates The RBC report said the improving home affordability is driven by two factors: it has become cheaper to get a home loan and home prices in Canada have been falling. 'Mortgage rates have come down quite a bit in the past three years. That's number one (on the list of reasons),' said Victor Tran, mortgage expert at Before someone borrows money from a federally regulated lender, like a bank, they need to prove they can afford payments at a qualifying interest rate. Typically, this rate is higher than the actual rate in a mortgage contract. This is referred to as the 'stress test.' The stress test requires borrowers to qualify for a mortgage at a rate of 5.25 per cent or two per cent above the contract rate, whichever is higher. Borrowers need to prove they could handle higher monthly payments if the central bank rate rose rapidly. Story continues below advertisement 'Lower mortgage rates equal lower qualifying rates, or in other words, lower stress test rates. Borrowing power improves a little bit,' Tran said. 1:01 Throne speech: King Charles says Liberals will work to make Canada's housing market 'work better' Home prices still too high In May, the average home price in Canada fell 3.5 per cent compared with this time last year. But in many markets, housing affordability remains worse than it was before the pandemic. Story continues below advertisement 'Those two factors (interest rates and home prices) are making it technically more affordable, but it's not like homes have been cut in half in price or anything. It's still very expensive,' said Tom Storey, sales representative at Royal LePage. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy 'If it was 40 degrees out for five days in a row and the next day it's 35 degrees, it's technically cooler, but I'm still probably sweating. And I think that's probably what buyers are feeling in this type of market.' The post-pandemic market highs in Canada pushed housing out of reach for many Canadians. In 2021, home prices skyrocketed 10.3 per cent nationally compared with 2020. They peaked in 2022, jumping 7.7 per cent compared with 2021. For anyone buying a house in those two years, bidding wars would have been the norm, and many would have had to buy the house without being able to put any conditions in. Storey said that while buyers are realizing they hold more cards than they did three years ago, there is a mismatch between what buyers want to pay and what sellers are expecting for their properties. 'The number of listings that are coming to the market, month over month, it is a bit higher than what we've seen in previous years. But the reason why there's so many (houses on the market) right now is because the absorption is not there. Buyers and sellers are not agreeing on prices,' he said. Story continues below advertisement One of the biggest factors keeping buyers on the sidelines is U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, Tran said, particularly in markets with exposure to the U.S. economy. 'Windsor and Hamilton (in Ontario) are very exposed because most of the town is tied to manufacturing or the steel industry. Those markets are facing more uncertainty than other markets,' he said. 3:39 Saskatoon housing market trends continue to lean in favour of seller Tran said potential buyers should also factor in any costs that come with owning and living in a house of their own. 'Other things are expensive as well, too, and that's scary for a lot of people entering the housing market. For example, property taxes, utilities and insurance. Those costs that everyone has to deal with are expected to go up on a year-over-year basis. That's something we should always expect and budget for,' he said. Story continues below advertisement Condo market cooling For anyone looking to buy a condo, affordability measures look very good, with affordability back to pre-pandemic levels in some markets. 'In some parts of the country—including Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg and even Toronto—the condo affordability measure is now effectively back to where it was before the pandemic,' the report said. Storey said that while condo inventory is rising rapidly in some of Canada's priciest markets, including Toronto and Vancouver, other types of homes remain few and far between. Buyers should not be surprised to find themselves in a bidding war for a semi-detached home in a hot market, he said. 'There just isn't a ton of inventory for that property type. So even in a soft overall market, a semi-detached home still could get several offers or sell over the asking price,' he said. Story continues below advertisement 2:25 How Montreal's new short-term rental regulations are hurting some residents Tran said lower interest rates also mean that banks and other lenders are competing to retain customers whose mortgages are coming up for renewal. 'Not only are they offering low rates to save a customer or even acquire a new customer, but a lot them have additional promotion where they would throw cash at customers. Like cash back mortgages,' he said.
Global News
20-06-2025
- Business
- Global News
Buying a house got costlier in May. What should your household income be?
Signs of a rebound may be emerging in Canada's real estate market after months of declining home prices. While buyer-friendly conditions persist in some markets, many Canadians will have to shell out more for their monthly mortgage payments, a new report shows. The monthly home affordability report by looked at home prices and mortgage rates from 13 Canadian cities. In eight of those cities, mortgage affordability got worse in May. Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at said the buyer-friendly market conditions are unlikely to last for very long. 'While buyers have enjoyed attractive housing affordability conditions throughout the spring, those days may be numbered. The latest May national housing data reveals sales are firming up over the short term,' she said. While mortgage rates remained largely unchanged, rising home prices mean you'd have to spend more money on your monthly mortgage payments, depending on where you live. For most Canadian cities, the annual household income you'd need to get approved for a mortgage has also gone up. Story continues below advertisement In May, the price of the average Canadian home was $691,299. While that is still down 1.8 per cent compared with this time last year, it is an increase of 1.9 per cent compared with April this year. A Royal Bank of Canada report said buyers are expected to dive back into the market as the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs becomes clearer. 'We expect housing market confidence to gradually rebuild as tariff de-escalation lifts some of the uncertainty that hindered activity earlier this year,' RBC economist Robert Hogue said in the report. 1:54 Business Matters: Canada's housing market in holding pattern, CREA data shows Costlier mortgages The data from Ratehub's report is based on a 10 per cent down payment with a 25-year amortization. The city that saw the highest increase in monthly mortgage payments was St. John's, N.L., where someone locking down their mortgage in May would have to pay $45 more and would need an annual household income of $86,450. Story continues below advertisement 'St. John's saw the most significant increase, with $1,690 in additional income required to purchase the average home. This is due to home prices rising ($8,900), the biggest increase of all the cities,' Graham said. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Halifax also saw affordability worsen, with the average resident paying an additional $38 a month for their mortgage. They would need a household income of $122,830 (an increase of $1,430) to buy a house. Regina (increase of $27) and Montreal (increase of $26) both saw monthly mortgage costs go up. In Regina, you would need an annual household income of $79,350 (an increase of $1,020 since April) and in Montreal, you'd need $124,620 (an increase of $980 since April). After a drop in home prices in April, the price for an average home in Toronto rose $3,400 to $1,012,800 in May. A Torontonian would have to spend $17 more ($5,139 a month) and need an annual household income of $206,500 to be able to afford a home. Winnipeg saw monthly mortgage costs rise by $13 a month to $1,968 and the average Winnipegger would need $88,250 annually to be able to buy a house. Edmonton ($7) and Fredericton ($5) both saw minor increases in monthly mortgage costs. In Edmonton, you'd need an annual household income of $96,670, while in Fredericton, you'd need $78,200. The only city that saw no change in affordability was Calgary. The average home price in the city remained the same as in April ($583,000), as did the monthly mortgage cost ($2,958) and annual income needed to buy a house ($125,170). Story continues below advertisement 2:21 Business Matters: May 'another sleepy month' for homebuyers. Will a rate cut wake them up? Where did affordability improve? 'While the majority of the cities saw affordability worsen, the biggest change was actually in Hamilton, where affordability saw a massive improvement, with $3,480 less income required to purchase the average home,' Graham said. The average home price in Hamilton was $183,100 — a drop of $7,500 since May. Story continues below advertisement A Hamilton homebuyer would need an annual income of $163,020 to be able to buy a house. With a 10 per cent down payment and a 25-year amortization, their monthly mortgage rate came down to $3,973 a month. This means that a Hamilton mortgage buyer who locked down their rate in May would save $93 a month compared with someone who locked it down in April. The decline in home prices comes amid the U.S. trade war and President Donald Trump's 50 per cent tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. Hamilton is home to major Canadian steel producers and faces growing concerns about the potential for layoffs and plant closures as a result of the tariffs. While Vancouver saw the second biggest decline in home prices, with a decline of $7,500, it remains Canada's most expensive housing market by far, with an average home in May costing $1,177,100. Vancouverites also need the highest annual income of any city in Canada at $237,550 a year. They would also have to pay the highest monthly mortgage of $5,973 with a 10 per cent down payment, although it dropped $38 from April. In May, Victoria came in as the third most expensive housing market in Canada after Vancouver and Toronto, though average home prices dropped to $892,700, with the average homebuyer needing an annual salary of $183,750. Monthly mortgage costs dropped $38 to $4,530 a month. Story continues below advertisement Affordability also improved in the nation's capital, with the average Ottawa home price dropping to $629,800. An Ottawa resident would save $7 on their mortgage payment if they bought in May ($3,196 a month) and would need an annual household income of $134,020 to be able to buy a house.
Global News
10-06-2025
- Business
- Global News
These real estate markets might be showing signs of life, report suggests
After a slow year for real estate in Canada, with some experts describing the spring housing market as 'dead on arrival,' a new report suggests some markets are showing signs of life. A report by the Royal Bank of Canada released Monday said local real estate boards have indicated that home resales picked up in some Canadian markets in May. This was largely due to de-escalation of parts of the U.S. trade war on Canada, the report said. 'The de-escalation of tariffs has taken centre stage since May, alleviating some of the worst fears about the potential economic fallout even though recent doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs increases risks in some communities. We expect to get a clearer view in the coming months,' RBC economist Robert Hogue said in the report. Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at said tariffs have affected buyer confidence but 'cracks of hope' have begun to emerge. Story continues below advertisement 'From a short-term perspective, sales activity has started to pick up. This corresponds with the cracks of hope emerging in the trade scenario,' she said. Anne-Elise Cugliari Allegritti, spokesperson for Royal LePage, said, 'All in all, I think confidence is returning, at least for some Canadians. That's translated into the housing market a bit but in very, very small spurts.' Graham warned that the volatility has not entirely disappeared. 'There's still plenty of downside risks for the real estate market. If we continue to see declines in the jobs market, home sales will likely stay subdued, unless interest rates are cut dramatically,' she said. 1:58 New realtor trends emerging as housing market cools Which markets are picking up? The RBC report said the real estate markets in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Fraser Valley, Saskatoon and Regina all showed some signs of life. Story continues below advertisement The report said that while U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war had 'paralyzed' the housing market in Toronto, home resales picked up 8.4 per cent from April to May. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy However, home prices in Toronto continue to remain low, down 4.5 per cent compared to this time last year. Calgary and Edmonton, too, saw housing activity pick up. 'The trade war likely caused some buyers to pause in recent months, but its cooling impact on demand in Calgary may have been limited — or even short-lived,' Hogue said, adding that housing activity picked up eight per cent from April to May in Calgary. Quebec markets have been bucking national housing trends, Allegritti said. 'The Quebec markets really stand out this year, in not only Greater Montreal but even in Quebec City and some of the other smaller markets in the province,' she said. Median prices for single-family homes and condo apartments in Montreal were up 8.6 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, in May from a year ago — a touch slower than in April, the RBC report said. It added that in many markets, demand now looks sturdy. 'Prairie markets such as Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and some in Quebec including Quebec City and the Atlantic region like St. John's, have held up so far — albeit not entirely unscathed from trade-induced anxiety,' the report said. Story continues below advertisement The ultra-luxury real estate market is also showing solid demand, international realty firm Sotheby's said. According to Sotheby's, five properties worth over $10 million were sold in the Greater Toronto Area in the first three months of 2025. Slower markets While markets in Toronto and the Fraser Valley are picking up, sellers in other parts of Ontario and British Columbia are struggling. 'It should also be noted that some hard-hit tariffed industries, such as manufacturing, are concentrated in these southern Ontario markets,' Graham said. Sellers in Vancouver are being forced to accept lower bids, the report said, as buyers seem to be in no urgency to buy. 'There remains little urgency for potential buyers to make a move in this still-fraught economic environment. Time is on their side with buying options increasing by the day and prices drifting lower,' the report said. Story continues below advertisement What should buyers and sellers do? Despite the uptick in activity, market conditions remain favorable for anyone looking to buy a home this summer. 'I don't have high expectations for the summer. That's a typically quiet time for the housing market across the country,' Allegritti said. 'We will probably see a pick up in the fall, which is typically a busier part time of the year in the housing market,' she said. Buyers can expect higher inventory, more choice and better ability to bargain for a deal, Graham said. 'There is an opportunity to buy a property at a lower price, and lower interest rates mean buyers will qualify for larger mortgage amounts. Buyers also have more leverage in softer markets and can ask for conditions, such as upon financing or inspection, that further benefit them,' she said. Story continues below advertisement For sellers, however, the market remains tricky. 'It's important to have realistic expectations when listing in a down market and to price your property accordingly. An agent who understands your neighbourhood and comparable sales, and who knows how to market your property effectively, can be an important ally,' Graham said.
