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Beyond tariff cut: Millions more move to protected slabs
Beyond tariff cut: Millions more move to protected slabs

Business Recorder

time04-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Beyond tariff cut: Millions more move to protected slabs

Nepra has approved a reduction of Rs1.15 per unit in the base tariff for all non-lifeline consumers. The cut implies a base tariff relief of 2 to 5 percent for non-protected consumers, and 8 to 10 percent for those in the protected category. Negative base tariff adjustments are uncommon, offering a rare break after an extended spell of steep increases. The reduction in base tariff is not the main story. What ultimately matters is the effective end-user tariff — where a mix of adjustments, surcharges, and taxes often carries more weight, particularly when the base tariff revision is modest, as is the case this time. Significant confusion persists around the continuation of the previously announced Rs7.4 per unit relief into FY26. The issue was raised during the tariff hearing, but the Ministry of Energy's response did little to resolve the uncertainty. The Ministry stated that the 'average applicable consumer tariff in July 2025 would be lower by around seven rupees as compared to July 2024' — a phrasing that, while seemingly affirmative, raises more questions than it answers, especially in the absence of clarity on the underlying assumptions and whether the relief refers to gross billing impact or base tariff trajectory alone. It is important to recall that much of the previous quarter's relief was temporary by design, intended to lapse by June 2025. The only component explicitly extended into FY26 was the Rs182 billion relief — equivalent to Rs1.7 per unit — financed through additional Petroleum Levy collections. In its communication with the IMF, the government had clearly stated that this limited subsidy for all non-lifeline consumers would remain in place only until June 30, 2026. Combining the Rs1.15 per unit base tariff reduction with the Rs1.7 per unit Petroleum Levy–financed subsidy brings the total relief for July 2025 to Rs2.8 per unit. However, the most significant contributor is the Fuel Charge Adjustment (FCA), which has dropped from Rs3.2 per unit in July 2024 to around 10 paisas — a major swing. Additionally, quarterly tariff adjustments (QTA) offer further relief of Rs2.5 per unit, as the current QTA is a negative Rs1.55 per unit, compared to a positive Rs0.93 per unit last July. It's worth recalling that effective electricity tariffs for all consumer slabs had peaked in July 2024. Despite the base tariff cut, effective tariffs are set to increase by Re1 per unit on a month-on-month basis — primarily due to the quarterly adjustment becoming less negative, narrowing from Rs3.45 to Rs1.55 per unit. With this periodic negative adjustment scheduled to lapse after July 2025, the year-on-year relief in effective tariffs will also diminish as FY26 progresses. The more fundamental shift is unfolding in consumption patterns. An estimated 3.5 million additional consumers are expected to move into the protected category in FY26 compared to FY25. Today, 60 percent of all domestic consumers fall under protected or lifeline slabs — up from 50 percent just three years ago. Their share in total domestic consumption has risen from 22 percent in FY22 to 32 percent now. In contrast, consumption in the unprotected category — primarily middle and lower-middle income households — has declined sharply. The 301–700 unit slab has seen a drop of 5 billion units over three years, with its share in domestic consumption falling from 26 to just 19 percent. Despite lower tariffs compared to last year, the shift appears structural. Erosion in purchasing power has pushed millions into protected categories, shielding them from steep tariffs — but at the cost of mounting pressure on those left behind to cross-subsidize. The shift also mirrors the acceleration of solar adoption. In many remote areas, the grid is becoming increasingly redundant. Solar uptake is now evident across commercial, agricultural, and industrial segments as well. Meanwhile, uncertainty around net metering policy continues. Without clarity, the burden will keep growing on mid-tier unprotected consumers still tied to the grid.

11 arrested in three online cyber crime fraud cases
11 arrested in three online cyber crime fraud cases

Time of India

time17-06-2025

  • Time of India

11 arrested in three online cyber crime fraud cases

Pune: The Pimpri Chinchwad cyber police arrested 11 individuals linked to three major online frauds in which victims lost over Rs2 crore. A 45-year-old software engineer from Sangvi lost Rs1.55 crore to a woman he met on a dating app in Feb last year. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Posing as a brokerage executive, she promised good returns to help them buy a flat. "She took money in phases till Nov, transferring it to multiple accounts," police said. The techie filed a complaint on Saturday. Senior inspector Ravikiran Nale said investigations led to a private bank account in Solapur. "The account holder revealed three men had used it under the pretext of online gaming. We arrested Shubham Mantha (25), Swapnil Baheti (35), and Prashik Navghare (26) from Pune airport while trying to flee to Nepal," he said. Mantha and Baheti had links with cybercrooks in China. In the second case, a local lost Rs3.3 lakh. "Rs2.1 lakh went to a Silvassa account. We arrested the holder, Salman Khan (32), who named three more men — Bundty Panchal (30), Intakhaf Khan (30), and Suraj Singh (34)," Nale added. Earlier, on June 9, police nabbed two from Ahilyanagar for a Rs53 lakh "digital arrest" scam. The police said, "They led us to Avinash Palve, who ran mule accounts and bought crypto with the fraud money".

3 from Raj held for Rs 18L cryptocurrency fraud
3 from Raj held for Rs 18L cryptocurrency fraud

Time of India

time13-06-2025

  • Time of India

3 from Raj held for Rs 18L cryptocurrency fraud

Bhopal: The Bhopal Cyber-crime Branch on Thursday claimed to have arrested three accused from Jodhpur, Rajasthan, for duping an Awadhpuri based man on the pretext of investment in cryptocurrency. The accused — Narendra, Nimbaram, and Chandan Manjhi — allegedly defrauded a complainant of Rs18.60 lakhs by luring him into a fake investment scheme via Telegram. Modus Operandi: The accused targeted college students in need of money and used their documents to open bank accounts. These accounts were then handed over to other absconding accused who used them to receive funds from fraudulent activities. After gaining access to these accounts, the accused activated internet banking not using mobile SIMs but through separate Wi-Fi dongles to evade police tracking. During the operation, police seized a significant quantity of evidence, including seven mobile phones with SIM cards, two Wi-Fi dongle devices with SIMs, five cheque books, 62 ATM cards, and 28 SIM cards. Case Background: Additional DCP (Crime Branch) Shailendra Singh Chauhan said that on October 20, 2024, complainant Sudhir Singh, 38, a resident of Surajkunj, Awadhpuri, submitted a written complaint stating that he joined a Telegram group allegedly operated by a private company involved in investing in cryptocurrency in September 2024. Initially, he invested Rs2,000, Rs5,000, and Rs8,000 and received a return of Rs20,000, which built trust. Later, he was added to a private Telegram group where he was encouraged to invest larger amounts through "activities". The victim subsequently invested Rs1.55 lakh. When he tried to withdraw the returns, he was told to first participate in another "activity" requiring Rs3.6 lakhs. Believing the high return dashboard displayed on the app, the victim arranged the amount and participated. Again, withdrawal was blocked, and he was asked to invest another Rs6.8 lakhs. In this way, through multiple "investment activities", the victim was defrauded of Rs18.60 lakhs. Based on the investigation, an FIR was registered on Feb 8 against unidentified accused under relevant sections of the BNS. After registration of the FIR, the Cyber-crime Branch acted swiftly. Based on technical analysis and digital evidence, the team arrested all three accused from Jodhpur, Rajasthan, and seized materials used in the crime. The accused were identified as Narendra, 21, Nimbaram, 22, and Chandan Manjhi, 37. Fraud Structure: Accused Narendra sold an existing bank account (in his brother's name) to accused Nimbaram for ₹10,000. Nimbaram collected over 50 bank accounts from unsuspecting individuals and passed them on to an absconding accused named "Beeraram" (alias). The accounts were opened using documents of poor and needy students in exchange for money. Internet was accessed using Wi-Fi dongles to avoid digital traceability. Chandan Manjhi, the third accused, allowed his bank account to be used for fraudulent fund transfers in exchange for a small amount. Report cybercrime Call Bhopal Cyber-crime Branch Helpline at 9479990636 or the National Cyber Helpline at 1930. Follow more information on Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad here . Get real-time live updates on rescue operations and check full list of passengers onboard AI 171 .

Softening inflation – scope for rate cut
Softening inflation – scope for rate cut

Business Recorder

time03-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Softening inflation – scope for rate cut

Headline inflation finally reversed its trend, rising to 3.5 percent in May 2025 compared to 0.3 percent in the previous month and 11.8 percent in the same period last year. This change is largely driven by the base effect—over the past eleven months, a high base effect contributed to lowering the headline number. Now, with the full cycle complete, the low base effect has come into play, pushing inflation upward. However, due to negative month-on-month (MoM) inflation in six out of the past twelve months, the increase in inflation—despite the base effect reversal—remains below the SBP's medium-term target range of 5 to 7 percent. It is likely to stay under 5 percent for the remainder of the calendar year. In May, on abasis, month-on-month basis, inflation declined by 0.2 percent. This was driven by falling prices in food (-0.2%), transport (-0.2%), recreation and culture (-4.7%), and housing and utilities (-1.2%). These declines more than offset increases in clothing (1%), education (0.7%), and miscellaneous categories (1.7%). One of the most notable declines was seen in electricity charges. May marked the seventh consecutive month of falling electricity prices, with a 7.0 percent drop. This decrease is due to the implementation of a negative Rs1.55/kWh Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) for 3QFY25, which began in May, adding to the existing Rs1.9/kWh QTA. Within the food category, falling wheat prices had a significant downward impact—dropping 7.3 percent MoM. This decline also reduced the prices of wheat flour and wheat-based products and had a cascading effect on other food items. Additionally, prices of perishable items like tomatoes and onions also saw notable declines. Core inflation, however, has not declined at the same pace. It stood at 7.8 percent in May (urban core: 7.3%, rural core: 8.8%) compared to 8 percent in April and 14.2 percent in May last year. The overall decline in inflation is primarily due to falling food prices—partly because of the absence of a wheat support price—and to a broader decline in global commodity prices. Energy prices, particularly fuel and electricity, are also decreasing, supported by a stable currency amid the global commodity price downturn. However, second-round effects of the earlier inflation surge are still in play. As a result, categories like health, education, and miscellaneous remain in double digits, and clothing and footwear are approaching that threshold due to seasonal Eid-related demand pressures. A divergence between urban and rural inflation is emerging. In May 2025, urban food inflation stood at 5.3 percent compared to just 2.1 percent in rural areas. Conversely, in non-food categories, urban inflation was 2.4 percent while rural inflation was 4.6 percent. Despite these differences, the overall headline inflation rates were similar: 3.5 percent in urban areas and 3.4 percent in rural areas. Demand-side pressures and economic activity levels vary across regions. Overall, headline inflation for the first eleven months of FY25 (11MFY25) averaged 4.6 percent, a sharp decline from 24.5 percent during the same period last year. The trend is expected to remain steady, and barring any external or climate-related shocks, inflation is projected to stay below 5 percent in 2025. This gives the SBP room to further cut interest rates.

Power tariffs: Summer relief extends
Power tariffs: Summer relief extends

Business Recorder

time13-05-2025

  • Business
  • Business Recorder

Power tariffs: Summer relief extends

The summer season of massive relief continues for electricity consumers, as another Rs1.55/unit cut in lieu of Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) has been notified by the regulator. The QTA for 3QFY25 will be in field for May, June and July QTA for May and June will be in addition to the 2QFY25 QTA amounting to Rs1.9/unit – that is already in place till June 2025. The combined relief over March 2025 now stands at Rs6.2/unit for protected category slabs, and nearly Rs5/unit for unprotected. The impact includes negative monthly fuel charges adjustment of Rs1.18/per unit, of which Rs0.9 is the temporary adjustment that will last another month. The standalone monthly FCA at Rs0.28/unit for May 2025 is the lowest since September 2024, as deviations with reference generation have increased of late – largely owing to reduced hydrology and increased reliance on RLNG. The tariff composition has a number of temporary relief heads when compared with March 2025. This is what is in field. Tariff Differential subsidy (TDS) of Rs1.71/unit for April-June, 2QFY25 QTA of negative Rs1.9/unit for Apr-Jun, 3QFY25 QTA of negative Rs1.55/unit for May-July, FCA retention relief of negative Rs0.9/unit for Apr-Jun, and Rs0.28/unit on account of monthly FCA for May 2025. The base tariff, surcharges, duties, and taxes, meanwhile, have remained unchanged. From a year ago, the tariff respite is rather considerable, ranging from 9 percent to 48 percent across various slabs. Effective tariffs are down Rs8/unit for protected and nearly Rs6/unit for unprotected consumers year-on-year. Interestingly, the effective tariff for the non-lifeline protected consumer in the lowest category is now lower than the lifeline consumer's highest slab. The difference is marginal, and temporary – as non-lifeline consumers do not get the benefit of periodic adjustments, which have been rather significant of late. Nearly half of the capacity charges reduction for 3QFY25 stemmed from the impact of termination of 5 plants, and renegotiated terms with a number of IPPs. A considerable portion owes to the impact of closure of Neelum Jhelum power plant – which may have led to some savings on account of capacity charges but is a net negative for the sector – as no contribution will lead to a visibly altered reference generation mix for the next annual tariff rebasing exercise. Early signs indicate FY26 base tariffs will be a tad lower or at pat with FY25, and periodic adjustments are expected to be much lower, given the impact of IPP negotiations and terminated contracts will likely be built in the revised Power Purchase Price (PPP) for FY26. All eyes are now on the hydel flows which will be key in keeping power tariffs within close proximity of base tariffs for FY26.

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