Latest news with #RussSchumacher
NBC News
10-07-2025
- Climate
- NBC News
U.S. rocked by four 1-in-1,000-year storms in less than a week
First the river rose in Texas. Then, the rains fell hard over North Carolina, New Mexico and Illinois. In less than a week, there were at least four 1-in-1,000-year rainfall events across the United States — intense deluges that are thought to have roughly a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year. 'Any one of these intense rainfall events has a low chance of occurring in a given year,' said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at the nonprofit organization Climate Central, 'so to see events that are historic and record-breaking in multiple parts of the country over the course of one week is even more alarming.' It's the kind of statistic, several experts said, that is both eye-opening and likely to become more common because of climate change. At least 120 people were killed across six counties in central Texas' Hill Country region last week, after heavy rain caused catastrophic flash flooding. The Guadalupe River, near Kerrville, surged more than 20 feet in 90 minutes during the storm, washing away roads and causing widespread devastation. Days later, on Sunday, Tropical Storm Chantal drenched parts of North Carolina. Extensive flooding was reported across the central portion of the state, with some areas receiving nearly 12 inches of rain in only 24 hours. Local officials are still confirming the total number of deaths from the flooding, all while the region is under another flood watch Thursday. In New Mexico on Tuesday, at least three people were killed by devastating flash floods that swept through the remote mountain village of Ruidoso, about 180 miles south of Albuquerque. And in Chicago that same day, 5 inches of rain fell in only 90 minutes over Garfield Park, prompting multiple rescues on the west side of the city. Experts said that while 1-in-1,000-year floods are statistically rare, a certain number do occur every year in the United States. 'The probability is 0.1% for your location each year, so it's very unlikely to occur where you are, but over an entire country, some of them are going to happen somewhere each year,' said Russ Schumacher, director of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University and the state climatologist. Climate change is also likely to make these kinds of extreme flooding events more common, he said. It's often tricky to untangle the precise influence that climate change had on individual weather events, but scientists agree that severe storms are more likely in a warming world — along with more intense rainfall. 'This is one of the areas where attribution science is more solid, because the underlying physics is relatively simple,' Schumacher said. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, making storms capable of dumping huge amounts of rain over land. Studies have shown that for every degree Fahrenheit that the planet heats up, the atmosphere can hold around 3% to 4% more moisture. 'It is a mathematical certainty that as the atmosphere holds more water, it can also discharge more water in an instantaneous fashion,' said Dave Gochis, a hydrometeorologist who is the head of prediction services at Airborne Snow Observatories, a company headquartered in Mammoth Lakes, California, that measures and models snow and water resources around the world. But terrain can also be a major factor during heavy rainfall events, Gochis said. In Texas, for instance, the area's hills and canyons make it susceptible to flash flooding. Thin soil on top of a layer of bedrock also limits how much water can be absorbed in the ground, Gochis said. In New Mexico, the village of Ruidoso was ravaged by wildfires last year, which left burn scars that tend to increase runoff and heighten the risks of flash flooding. The events of the past week have laid bare the devastating effects of climate change on extreme weather — and the need to protect communities both before and after these events occur, said Dahl of Climate Central. Recovery efforts may take years, she said, and other consequences, including to public health, may linger for much longer. 'These events come and go in the news, and before you know it, we're on to the next one,' Dahl said. 'It's easy to forget that for the people experiencing this, it's really a yearslong process of healing.'
CBC
08-07-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Did climate change worsen Texas floods? Yes, study suggests
Rapid analysis finds natural variability alone can't explain rainfall changes The huge and deadly flash flood that swept through Texas Friday morning was an extremely rare event, meteorologists say. A new analysis suggests climate change played a role. Here's a look at what likely contributed and how. Once-in-1,000-years flood, even for 'flash flood alley' The devastating floods took place in central Texas Hill Country, nicknamed "flash flood alley" because it has one of the greatest risks of flash floods in the United States, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority. It credits the steep terrain, shallow soil and unusually high rainfall rates. The flooding took place along both the Colorado River and the Guadalupe River, which runs parallel to the Colorado in this part of Texas, about 60 kilometres south. Floods along the Guadalupe previously killed 10 people in 1987 and 12 people in 1998, though that's far less than the death toll so far of at least 104 in Friday's event. More than 30 centimetres of rain fell within a few hours early morning Friday. Colorado State University climatologist Russ Schumacher posted on Bluesky that six-hour rainfall totals made this a once-in-1,000-years event. The waters of the Guadalupe River rose eight metres in only 45 minutes before daybreak, washing away homes and vehicles, and rain continued through the weekend. Study points to role of climate change How much of a contribution did climate change make to this unusual event? On Monday, scientists at ClimaMeter released a study trying to answer this question. The study is based on a peer-reviewed method developed by researchers at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, but the study itself has not yet been peer-reviewed. By comparing climate data from an earlier period (1950 to 1986) to more recent data (1987-2023), the research found average temperature increases of up to 1.5 C in the flood-affected area, and conditions up to seven per cent wetter than during similar events in the past. Warmer temperatures in general are connected to heavier precipitation because warmth provides energy for storms and warmer air holds more water. "Natural variability alone cannot explain the changes in precipitation associated with this event" and "the changes we see in the event compared to the past may be due to human-driven climate change, with a contribution from natural variability," they wrote. However, no studies have yet calculated the likelihood of this event with or without human-caused climate change, which requires detailed modelling. WATCH | Canada way behind in flood preparedness, experts warn: How heat in the ocean and atmosphere plays a role Climate change has led to warmer oceans, which evaporate more water into an atmosphere. In places such as the Gulf of Mexico, where the sea surface temperatures were up to one degree Celsius above average, that fuels storms such as tropical storm Barry. Barry's remnants brought heavy rain into central Texas, where it stalled, dumping water all in one area, Climate Central reported. WATCH | Severe marine heat wave impacting Atlantic hurricane season: Media Video | CBC News : Severe marine heat wave impacting Atlantic hurricane season Caption: CBC News science and climate specialist Darius Mahdavi breaks down how record-warm ocean waters mean Canada could be in a dangerous situation heading into the peak of Atlantic hurricane season should any make landfall here. Open Full Embed in New Tab Loading external pages may require significantly more data usage than loading CBC Lite story storms like that get picked up and carried away by an air current called the jet stream. "But that's just not over Texas currently," Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, told The Associated Press. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. "In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be," said Winkley. "So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere." How drought made things worse The region hit by the flooding had been in a drought. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent, intense and longer lasting droughts with climate change, especially in regions such as the U.S. southwest, which has already seen a decrease in annual precipitation since 1900. Eighty-five per cent of Kerr County was in an "exceptional drought" — the highest level — over the past three months, while the entire county was listed as being in "extreme drought," the second-highest, reports the U.S. Drought Monitor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in collaboration with the U.S. government. That can increase the risk of flooding by killing off vegetation and making soil less able to absorb water. Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told The Associated Press the water "just runs right off of it. It's like concrete." Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, told AP that the combination of many factors, including weather and geography, all contributed. "As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way."
CBC
07-07-2025
- Climate
- CBC
How weather and climate fed into deadly floods in Texas
The huge and deadly flash floods that swept through Texas Friday morning were extremely rare, meteorologists say. But recent weather and climate played a role. Here's a look at what likely contributed and how. Once-in-1,000-years flood, even for 'flash flood alley' The devastating floods took place in the Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state nicknamed "flash flood alley" because it has one of the greatest risks of flash floods in the United States, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority, which credits the steep terrain, shallow soil and unusually high rainfall rates. The flooding took place along both the Colorado River and the Guadalupe River, which runs parallel to it in this part of Texas, about 60 kilometres south. Floods along the Guadalupe previously killed 10 people in 1987 and 12 people in 1998, though that's far less than the death toll so far of at least 82 in Friday's event. More than 30 centimetres of rain fell within a few hours early morning Friday. Colorado State University climatologist Russ Schumacher posted on Bluesky that six-hour rainfall totals made this a once-in-1,000-years event. The waters of the Guadalupe River rose eight metres in only 45 minutes before daybreak, washing away homes and vehicles, and rain continued through the weekend. How heat in the ocean and atmosphere plays a role Scientists haven't yet done the detailed modelling to see how much of a contribution climate change made to this unusual event, or how much more likely such a flood would be with human-caused climate change — a type of research called an "attribution" study. However, climate change has led to warmer oceans, which evaporate more water into an atmosphere. In places such as the Gulf of Mexico, where the sea surface temperatures were up to a degree Celsius above average, that fuels storms such as tropical storm Barry. Barry's remnants brought heavy rain into central Texas, where it stalled, dumping water all in one area, Climate Central reported. WATCH | Severe marine heat wave impacting Atlantic hurricane season: Severe marine heat wave impacting Atlantic hurricane season 2 years ago Duration 0:57 CBC News science and climate specialist Darius Mahdavi breaks down how record-warm ocean waters mean Canada could be in a dangerous situation heading into the peak of Atlantic hurricane season should any make landfall storms like that get picked up and carried away by an air current called the jet stream. "But that's just not over Texas currently," Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, told The Associated Press. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. Warmer air can also hold more moisture. "In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be," said Winkley. "So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere." How drought made things worse The region hit by the flooding had been in a drought. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent, intense and longer lasting droughts with climate change, especially in regions such as the U.S. southwest, which has already seen a decrease in annual precipitation since 1900. Eighty-five per cent of Kerr County was in an "exceptional drought" — the highest level — over the past three months, while the entire county was listed as being in "extreme drought," the second-highest, reports the U.S. Drought Monitor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in collaboration with the U.S. government. That can increase the risk of flooding by killing off vegetation and making soil less able to absorb water. Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told The Associated Press the water "just runs right off of it. It's like concrete." Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, told AP that the combination of many factors, including weather and geography, all contributed. "As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way."
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
06-07-2025
- Climate
- Business Standard
As the world warms up, extreme rain is becoming even more extreme
Raymond Zhong Colossal bursts of rain like the ones that caused the deadly flooding in Texas are becoming more frequent and intense around the globe as the burning of fossil fuels heats the planet, scientists say. Warm air holds more moisture than cool air, and as temperatures rise, storms can produce bigger downpours. When met on the ground with outdated infrastructure or inadequate warning systems, the results can be catastrophic. These were the ingredients for tragedy in Texas, a state that is well acquainted with weather extremes of all kinds: high heat and deep cold, deluges and droughts, tornadoes and hurricanes, hail and snow. Indeed, the hill country, the part of the state where the Guadalupe river swelled on Friday, is sometimes called 'flash flood alley' for how at risk it is to seemingly out-of-nowhere surges of water. Humid air blows into the area from two main sources, the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Pacific Ocean. When this air collides with cool air drifting down across the Great Plains, severe storms can erupt. The hilly terrain and steep canyons quickly funnel the rain into river valleys, transforming lazy streams into roaring cascades. In parts of Texas that were flooded on Friday, the quantities of rain that poured down in a six-hour stretch were so great that they had less than a tenth of 1 percent chance of falling there in any given year, according to data analysed by Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University. The Guadalupe river rose from three feet to 34 feet in about 90 minutes, according to data from a river gauge near the town of Comfort, Texas. The volume of water exploded from 95 cubic feet per second to 166,000 cubic feet per second. And the warming climate is creating the conditions in Texas for more of these sharp, deadly deluges. In the eastern part of the state, the number of days per year with at least two inches of rain or snow has increased by 20 percent since 1900, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment, the federal government's flagship report on how global warming is affecting the United States. Across Texas, the intensity of extreme rain could increase another 10 percent by 2036, according to a report last year by John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist. To understand patterns of heavy rain at a more local level, communities and officials rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency has for decades published nationwide estimates of the probabilities of various precipitation events — that is, a certain number of inches falling in a particular location over a given amount of time, from five minutes to 24 hours to 60 days. Engineers use NOAA's estimates to design storm drains and culverts. City planners use them to guide development and regulations in flood-prone areas. NOAA's next updates to the estimates are scheduled to be released starting next year. For the first time, they are expected to include projections of how extreme precipitation will evolve as the climate changes, in order to help officials plan further ahead. But in recent months, the Trump administration has cut staff at the agency and at the National Weather Service, which sits within NOAA. The administration has also dismissed the hundreds of experts who had been compiling the next edition of the National Climate Assessment, which was scheduled to come out in 2028. And it is proposing deep cuts to NOAA's 2026 budget, including eliminating the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts and coordinates climate research.
Straits Times
06-07-2025
- Science
- Straits Times
As the world warms, extreme rain is becoming even more extreme
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Colossal bursts of rain like the ones that caused the deadly flooding in Texas are becoming more frequent and intense around the globe as the burning of fossil fuels heats the planet, scientists say. Warm air holds more moisture than cool air, and as temperatures rise, storms can produce bigger downpours. When met on the ground with outdated infrastructure or inadequate warning systems, the results can be catastrophic. These were the ingredients for tragedy in Texas, a state that is well acquainted with weather extremes of all kinds: high heat and deep cold, deluges and droughts, tornadoes and hurricanes, hail and snow. Indeed, the Hill Country, the part of the state where the Guadalupe River swelled on July 4, is sometimes called 'flash flood alley' for how at risk it is to seemingly out-of-nowhere surges of water. Humid air blows into the area from two main sources, the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Pacific Ocean. When this air collides with cool air drifting down across the Great Plains, severe storms can erupt. The hilly terrain and steep canyons quickly funnel the rain into river valleys, transforming lazy streams into roaring cascades. In parts of Texas that were flooded on July 4, the quantities of rain that poured down in a six-hour stretch were so great that they had less than a tenth of 1 per cent chance of falling there in any given year, according to data analysed by Dr Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University. The Guadalupe River rose from 3 feet to 34 feet in about 90 minutes, according to data from a river gauge near the town of Comfort, Texas. The volume of water exploded from 95 cubic feet per second to 166,000 cubic feet per second. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore First BTO project in Sembawang North to be offered in July launch Singapore TTSH to demolish century-old pavilion wards, keeping one as heritage marker World 'Formed to give you back your freedom': Elon Musk says he has created a new US political party Singapore Tank collides into traffic light during National Day Parade national education show Singapore His world crashed when he got F9 in O-level Tamil but PropNex co-founder Ismail Gafoor beat the odds Asia HIV surge in the Philippines amid poor sex education, policy gaps Tech Graduates are not screwed if they study engineering: James Dyson in response to Economist article Business When a foreign wife failed to turn up for a $10m divorce And the warming climate is creating the conditions in Texas for more of these sharp, deadly deluges. In the eastern part of the state, the number of days per year with at least 2 inches of rain or snow has increased by 20 per cent since 1900, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment, the federal government's flagship report on how global warming is affecting the United States. Across Texas, the intensity of extreme rain could increase another 10 per cent by 2036, according to a report last year by Dr John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist. To understand patterns of heavy rain at a more local level, communities and officials rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency has for decades published nationwide estimates of the probabilities of various precipitation events – that is, a certain number of inches falling in a particular location over a given amount of time, from five minutes to 24 hours to 60 days. Engineers use NOAA's estimates to design storm drains and culverts. City planners use them to guide development and regulations in flood-prone areas. NOAA's next updates to the estimates are scheduled to be released from 2026. For the first time, they are expected to include projections of how extreme precipitation will evolve as the climate changes, in order to help officials plan further ahead. But in recent months, the Trump administration has cut staff at the agency and at the National Weather Service, which sits within NOAA. The administration has also dismissed the hundreds of experts who had been compiling the next edition of the National Climate Assessment, which was scheduled to come out in 2028. And it is proposing deep cuts to NOAA's 2026 budget, including eliminating the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts and coordinates climate research. NYTIMES
