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The Hill
09-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Russia is losing its grip on the Caucasus — an opportunity for the US
For over 150 years, Russia ruled the South Caucasus, the mountainous region between Europe and Asia, through exploitation, domination and a colonialist divide-and-conquer policy. Moscow's most recent pressure-point has been the conflict over the Armenia-backed separatist Karabakh, where Russia both fueled the conflict and acted as a mediator. Now, Armenia and Azerbaijan are setting clear boundaries — and America has a historic opening to help them. Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have been in a freefall after Russian police allegedly tortured to death two Azerbaijani citizens amid a greater crackdown on ethnic Azerbaijani in the industrial city of Yekaterinburg. Azerbaijan authorities said the killings were 'ethnically motivated,' and they likely were. In response, Azerbaijan arrested the chief and managing editors of the Russian state media outlet Sputnik, accusing them of working with Russian intelligence. Baku then arrested eight more Russian citizens on charges of drug trafficking and cybercrime. This latest escalation comes amid tensions between the two countries that have simmered since December, when Moscow shot down an Azerbaijani civilian plane, killing 38. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev demanded a public apology and compensation, but Moscow initially ignored him. This set in motion a spiraling escalation that included the ordered closing of Russian state media and cultural centers in Azerbaijan and a massive cyberattack against Azerbaijani state media. For several years, a conflict has also been brewing in neighboring Armenia as well. Right before the killing of the two Azerbaijanis, Armenia ditched a meeting of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, while simultaneously announcing it was entering discussions over defense cooperation with the European Union. Although Yerevan still depends on Russia economically and militarily, it has taken many steps to diversify relations, including with Iran, India and others. Such open defiance from both countries would have been unimaginable just five years ago. However, two events opened the door for the fall of Russian influence in the South Caucasus: the retaking of Karabakh by Azerbaijan and the war in Ukraine. For almost 30 years, Russia used the conflict over the Armenia-backed separatist territory of Karabakh to maintain leverage over both countries. Moscow used similar strategies in the post-Soviet republics of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia by using the support for separatism to pressure all three. But in the Karabakh, Russia pressured both Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously. After successful Azerbaijani operations to retake Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Russia lost its primary leverage. And as Russia was increasingly bogged down in Ukraine, it did not have the same capacity to influence either country. By using such a 'divide and conquer' strategy to keep Azerbaijan and Armenia within its sphere of influence, Russia caused resentment in both. Now, it may be bringing both sides together. In the midst of tensions, the UK-based outlet Middle East Eye reports that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Aliyev plan to meet in Dubai to further discuss a peace agreement. As the situation further develops, the U.S. should carefully seek to support both partners without aggravating tensions. The key would be to contrast itself with Russia as a benefactor that does not seek to bully its partners. There are two steps that Washington can take to increase its influence in the region that would not lead to escalations. The first is to invest in Pashinyan's Crossroads for Peace initiative, a geopolitical strategy to incorporate Armenia into the Middle Corridor through infrastructure development, economic integration and peace diplomacy with Azerbaijan and Turkey. By investing in the project, Washington would further build out the Middle Corridor, which would allow the transit of Asian goods to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran, and help Armenia become less dependent on Moscow. The second step would be to pursue trilateral defense cooperation with Azerbaijan and Israel, a strategy proposed by high-ranking Israeli parliamentarians and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Such cooperation should be less about deterring Russia (which likely does not wish to strike Azerbaijan) and more about deterring the less predictable Iran. Officials and state media in Tehran have waged information warfare against Baku, accusing it of taking part in Israel's Operation Rising Lion last month by recruiting ethnic Azerbaijanis as spies as well as letting Israel use its territory to carry out strikes. Likewise, partnership with Armenia would come at a crucial time. As longtime regional observer Onnik Krekorian noted, Armenia is 'close to the brink.' Pashinyan faces internal threats from a Russian-backed church and politicians that he has accused of planning a coup. And Armenian reliance on Russian energy remains a crucial vulnerability — Armenia imports 83 percent of its gas and 80 percent of its oil from Moscow. Moscow's decline opens the door — not for new hegemons or a new front, but for new partnerships built on respect for the region's sovereignty. Joseph Epstein is director of the Turan Research Center, a nonpartisan research program at the Yorktown Institute focused on the Turkic and Persian worlds.
The Star
22-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Indonesia's Prabowo says he wants more Russian involvement in his country's economy
Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto speaks during a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025. -- REUTERS/Anton Vaganov ST PETERSBURG (Reuters): Indonesia wants to see more Russian involvement in its economy, President Prabowo Subianto said on Friday, a day after signing a declaration with President Vladimir Putin on creating a strategic partnership. "We know Russian corporations and we would like to see Russia participate more in our economy," Prabowo said in a speech to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Indonesia is a non-aligned country that values the leadership of Russia and China, Prabowo said, adding that he believed many countries in the Global South would agree. He said Indonesia was moving ahead of target towards its goal of self-sufficiency in food, and would be a net exporter of rice and corn within a few years. Indonesia also expects to sign a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this year in a move likely to boost demand for its commodity exports, its senior economic minister said. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the agreement would open up new opportunities for commodities including crude palm oil, coffee and natural rubber. Both parties announced on Thursday they had completed substantive talks for the agreement.
The Sun
20-06-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Indonesia expects to sign free trade deal with Russia-led union this year, minister says
JAKARTA: Indonesia expects to sign a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this year in a move likely to boost demand for its commodity exports, its senior economic minister said in a statement released on Friday. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the agreement would open up new opportunities for commodities including crude palm oil, coffee and natural rubber. Both parties announced on Thursday they had completed substantive talks for the agreement. 'I hope both parties can immediately follow this up by completing all the necessary stages of the process so that this agreement can be signed this year,' Airlangga said. As of March, the value of trade between Indonesia and the EAEU stood at $1.6 billion, 85% more than the same period last year, Indonesia's coordinating ministry for economic affairs said. The EAEU is already one of Indonesia's biggest palm oil buyers, with imports valued at $544.64 million in 2023. The EAEU's main exports to the Southeast Asian nation include fertilisers and ferro-alloys. The completion of Indonesia-EAEU FTA talks was announced on Thursday during President Prabowo Subianto's visit to Russia this week for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EAEU has five members: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
The Sun
20-06-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Indonesia to sign free trade deal with Eurasian Union in 2025
JAKARTA: Indonesia expects to sign a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this year in a move likely to boost demand for its commodity exports, its senior economic minister said in a statement released on Friday. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the agreement would open up new opportunities for commodities including crude palm oil, coffee and natural rubber. Both parties announced on Thursday they had completed substantive talks for the agreement. 'I hope both parties can immediately follow this up by completing all the necessary stages of the process so that this agreement can be signed this year,' Airlangga said. As of March, the value of trade between Indonesia and the EAEU stood at $1.6 billion, 85% more than the same period last year, Indonesia's coordinating ministry for economic affairs said. The EAEU is already one of Indonesia's biggest palm oil buyers, with imports valued at $544.64 million in 2023. The EAEU's main exports to the Southeast Asian nation include fertilisers and ferro-alloys. The completion of Indonesia-EAEU FTA talks was announced on Thursday during President Prabowo Subianto's visit to Russia this week for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EAEU has five members: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.
Straits Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Indonesia expects to sign free trade deal with Russia-led union this year, minister says
FILE PHOTO: Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, gestures as he talks during an interview with Reuters at his office in Jakarta, Indonesia, June 8, 2023. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/File Photo Indonesia expects to sign free trade deal with Russia-led union this year, minister says JAKARTA - Indonesia expects to sign a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this year in a move likely to boost demand for its commodity exports, its senior economic minister said in a statement released on Friday. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the agreement would open up new opportunities for commodities including crude palm oil, coffee and natural rubber. Both parties announced on Thursday they had completed substantive talks for the agreement. "I hope both parties can immediately follow this up by completing all the necessary stages of the process so that this agreement can be signed this year," Airlangga said. As of March, the value of trade between Indonesia and the EAEU stood at $1.6 billion, 85% more than the same period last year, Indonesia's coordinating ministry for economic affairs said. The EAEU is already one of Indonesia's biggest palm oil buyers, with imports valued at $544.64 million in 2023. The EAEU's main exports to the Southeast Asian nation include fertilisers and ferro-alloys. The completion of Indonesia-EAEU FTA talks was announced on Thursday during President Prabowo Subianto's visit to Russia this week for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EAEU has five members: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
