Latest news with #RussianUrals
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Business Standard
11-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Crude connection: Refiners eye Canadian shores amid supply disruptions
Heavy grade crude from Alberta can be a stable alternative to Russian Urals Subhayan Chakraborty New Delhi Listen to This Article With most heavy crude grades suffering supply disruptions, Western Canadian Select (WCS) is being explored as a key alternative for Indian importers, refiners and Petroleum Ministry officials said on Friday. Other heavy grades from Russia, Venezuela, and Iraq are currently suffering supply disruptions. Given the large number of complex refineries in India that can process these grades, the decision by the US to impose tariffs on Canadian crude has given India a window of opportunity to establish term contracts, officials said. "Canada can be a stable source of large volumes of crude for India, at a time when we are
Mint
18-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Russias Faltering Oil Flows Crimp Gains From Rally in Prices
Russia failed to reap the full rewards of the recent rally in oil prices, or the increase in its own OPEC output target, as exports slid to a seven-week low. Seaborne crude shipments averaged 3.31 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 15, a drop of 1% from the period to June 8. The more volatile weekly figure fell by about 440,000 barrels a day from the previous week's three-month high. Lower flows largely offset higher oil prices to leave the gross value of Moscow's exports up by just 1% in latest four-week period. On a weekly basis, their value was down by 5%. The faltering volumes came as oil prices climbed with Israel and Iran trading missile attacks since Friday. Weekly average prices for Russia's crude exports gained by about $4 a barrel last week and will likely rise by even more this week, barring a rapid de-escalation in hostilities. Russia's oil production should be rising too, with its OPEC output target increasing by more than 180,000 barrels a day between March and June. But more than half of that is eroded by deeper cuts Moscow promised to compensate for earlier over-production, and output in May was unchanged from the previous month. The decline in shipments in the latest week was driven by a sharp downward adjustment from the Arctic port of Murmansk. Exports are also likely being eroded by rising refinery runs, with Russia's processing plants returning from seasonal maintenance. Crude-processing rates averaged 5.41 million barrels a day in early June, up by about 140,000 barrels a day from the average for most of May. Separately, Russia is seeking to pipe more crude to China via Kazakhstan, reducing the need for long sea voyages from ports on its Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic coasts. Moscow wants to increase the flow by 25% from the current agreement to pump 10 million tons a year. A total of 30 tankers loaded 22.42 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to June 15, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 25.52 million barrels on 34 ships the previous week. Crude flows in the period to June 15 stood at about 3.31 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, down by 50,000 barrels a day from the period to June 8. Using more volatile weekly figures, they slumped by about 440,000 barrels. The drop in flows was driven by lower shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk. There was one shipment of Kazakhstan's KEBCO crude during the week from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and one from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The gross value of Moscow's exports fell by about $70 million, or 5%, to $1.35 billion in the week to June 15. The drop in flows was partly offset by higher average prices. Export prices of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific all rose by about $4-4.20 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO averaged $63.11 a barrel in the week to June 15, above the $60 a barrel G-7 price cap for the first time since April. Delivered prices in India were up by $3.80 at $68.50 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media. On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia's crude shipments rose for a third week, with Urals from both the Baltic and the Black Sea and Pacific ESPO all up by $1.50-1.60 a barrel. Using this measure, the value of exports rose by 1% in the period to June 15 to about $1.29 billion a week. Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, slipped to 2.86 million barrels a day in the 28 days to June 15, down from 2.98 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 8. The figures include about 400,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point and a further 30,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination. Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to June 15 averaged about 390,000 barrels a day, their highest in almost five months. That helped to propel shipments to the eastern Mediterranean, where Moscow has also been supplying crude to Syria, to the highest in just under a year This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, . All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch. Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations. With assistance from Sherry Su. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Exclusive-Top Turkish refiner Tupras resumes buying Russian Urals crude, sources say
By Ahmad Ghaddar and Robert Harvey LONDON (Reuters) - Turkey's largest oil refiner Tupras has returned to buying Russian Urals crude cargoes, after it stopped doing so earlier this year due to US sanctions on Moscow, according to three trading sources and shipping data. Tupras did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment. The three sources said Tupras resumed its purchases after prices for Urals crude fell below a Western price cap, to the lowest levels since 2023, earlier this month. Tupras became one of the biggest importers of Russian crude after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Russian oil representing 65% of the country's total oil imports in January-November 2024, according to data from Turkey's energy regulator. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump spares Russia from tariffs, but oil price plunge could wreck war economy regardless
U.S. President Donald Trump has inadvertently hit Russia's economy after his "Liberation Day" tariffs caused oil prices to drop drastically on April 7, with potentially massive ramifications for the Kremlin's ability to fund its ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia has so far failed to agree to a full ceasefire, and while Trump has been vocal about being "pissed off" and "very angry" with the Kremlin, he is yet to take any concrete action to force Russia to end its full-scale invasion. He has multiple forms of leverage he could use against the Kremlin — increasing military aid to Ukraine, strengthening the enforcement of existing sanctions, or imposing additional tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. So far, he has not used any of it, but his "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on nearly every country in the world — but notably not Russia — may end up forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider his options — and the Kremlin is already panicking. Russia's economy is heavily dependent on oil revenues, which make up around 30% of its total state budget. As the war in Ukraine has dragged on, the Kremlin has massively increased defense spending, and 32% of the 2025 budget expenditure was allocated to the military and its war machine in Ukraine. But there's an issue — when drawing up the 2025 budget, the Kremlin budgeted for an oil price of $70 per barrel. But on April 7, the price of Russian Urals oil tumbled to a 21-month low of $51.54 per barrel on the Baltic port of Primorsk, according to Argus Media. "If the average price is lower (than $70 per barrel) throughout the year, Russia will have less money to earn and spend, especially to cover growing expenses connected to illegal actions against Ukraine," Wojciech Jakobik, a Warsaw-based energy analyst, told the Kyiv Independent."Russia's National Wealth Fund would be depleted faster, and Russia would need a truce quicker," he added. Ukraine has long been targeting Russian oil assets with drones in an attempt to deplete the Kremlin's oil revenue, but Trump has done a more effective job in recent days by dragging the world into economic uncertainty. Trump's 34% tariffs on China caused Beijing to retaliate with its own 34% tariffs on American goods. The White House responded on April 7 by saying it would add an additional 50% tariff to Chinese goods on top of last week's 34% tariff and the previous 20% tariff, bringing the total to over 100%. The EU, which was slapped with 20% tariffs on its goods, has also threatened retaliation. Trump's actions sparked concerns of a global recession, leading global oil prices to plunge in anticipation of a slowdown in economic activity. So while Russia was spared the imposition of tariffs, it's now suffering heavily due to the global ramifications of the unfolding global trade war. The price drop ignited panic in Moscow, and the Kremlin is monitoring the "extremely turbulent, tense" situation, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Interfax on April 7. "Our economic authorities are monitoring this situation very closely and, of course, are doing and will do everything necessary to minimize the consequences of this international economic storm for our economy," he added. Peskov laid the blame squarely on Trump's tariffs but there are other factors contributing to the drop in oil revenue for Russia. Russian fossil fuel revenues were declining even before the tariffs, partly due to American and British sanctions in January which caused "shadow fleet" shipments to drop by 21% in February, the Center for Research on Energy and Clear Air (CREA) reported. The sanctions have also lowered demand for Russian crude in China and India — Moscow's main markets. On top of this, Trump's tariffs are likely to hurt China's economy in particular and consequently, its oil demand. "Since the start of the war with Ukraine, Russia has become significantly dependent on China. Therefore, it's more vulnerable to the health of the Chinese economy," Lilit Gevorgyan, associate director of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told the Kyiv Independent. Additionally, the OPEC+ oil cartel, of which Russia is a member, has recently unwound restrictions on oil production faster than expected, John Gawthrop, editor at Argus Eurasia Energy, told the Kyiv Independent. Trump previously said Russia's war could end "immediately" if OPEC+ lowered oil prices. The cartel, consisting of 12 countries, accounts for 40% of the global oil production and 60% of global oil pledged to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day instead of the expected 140,000 per day, starting next month. This will push down prices as there is more oil on the market. "There's massive uncertainty about what's going on in the global economy and you've also got more oil coming out into the market. It creates the perfect storm," Gawthrop said. Banks have cut forecasts for Brent crude, the global benchmark, to as low as $60 per barrel. As recently as late March, Brent prices reached $72.52 a barrel. Read also: As Ukraine, Russia agree to ceasefire at sea, Moscow's battered Black Sea Fleet is set to get a reprieve It doesn't look good for Russia — reduced income from energy would add additional pressure to its already strained economy. Moscow is balancing funding living standards, a war, and macroeconomic stability. Sanctions alone haven't yet toppled its economy largely due to the Russian energy sector raking in cash. Russia's state budget earned around $100 billion from crude exports alone in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence."If you take out a big chunk of revenue that had been expected, it becomes harder to maintain that already precarious balance. Something may have to give," Gawthrop said. Russia could cut social spending and investment activities to fund its war machine, but continued prices below $70 per barrel could affect its ability to do so in the longer term, Jakobik said. And if oil prices fall even further, it could force Moscow into seeking a truce with Ukraine quicker, he added. Banks don't expect Brent prices to come back this year or next. Goldman Sachs forecast Brent prices would be $62 per barrel by December 2025 and $55 by December 2026, Reuters reported. With OPEC+ increasing oil production, it could push down prices even more. If the cartel goes further into a "price war," it runs the risk of dragging global oil prices below $60 per barrel, which will bring Russian oil down too, Jakobik said. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Riyadh faced off with Moscow, drastically increasing oil production and causing prices to drop below sustainable levels for producers. The Russian ruble fell 7% against the dollar as a result. Another face-off between Moscow and Riyadh is unlikely as Russia is complying more with OPEC+ regulation, Gawthrop said. But Kazakhstan has ramped up production recently, which could cause prices to fall to a painful level for Russia. "If oil prices fall to a level that is deemed to be too uncomfortable, OPEC+ will probably rein in production again. Although when we talk about uncomfortable price levels, the Saudis can take much more pain in terms of low oil prices than Russia can," Gawthrop is dragging the world into another unprecedented economic catastrophe that could mirror the 2008 financial crash or pandemic, Gawthrop added. Unless the U.S. reverses its tariff policy, he doesn't expect the market to rebound anytime soon. Read also: Putin issued a decree. Now, millions of Ukrainians face an impossible decision We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Reuters
07-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Russian Urals oil prices fell to the lowest level since 2023 as Brent price collapsed
MOSCOW, April 7 (Reuters) - Russian Urals oil prices fell to the lowest levels since 2023 as international benchmark Brent prices collapsed amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China following the tariffs policy announced last week, Reuters calculations based on traders' data showed. Weaker Urals prices will weigh on Russia's oil revenues - a core basis for Moscow's budget. A fall in oil and gas revenues comes at a time of tough negotiations between Russia and the United States about the ceasefire in Ukraine. Brent futures lost $2.43, or 3.7%, to $63.15 a barrel by 1009 GMT as they continue to fall from the last week and are at the lowest since 2021. Russian Urals oil prices for cargoes loading from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk ports fell to around $53 per barrel last Friday, according to Reuters data. That means that on Monday the prices for the Russian grade might dip to around $50 if the decline of Brent prices continues until the markets close. If so it will be the lowest price level for Russian Urals oil since March 2023, according to Reuters data and calculations. At the same time lower prices for Russian oil will help its oil sellers to fix tankers as more western shipowners can enter the market as the prices are below the western price cap, two traders said. Urals prices are likely to fall $10 per barrel below the western price cap on Monday, Reuters calculations showed. In late 2022 the Group of Seven countries - the United States, Canada, Britain, Italy, France, Germany and Japan - together with the European Union and Australia imposed a cap of $60 per barrel on the sale of Russian oil on a free-on-board basis, seeking to reduce Russia's revenue from seaborne oil exports as part of sanctions. The cost of shipping Urals oil from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga to India fell to $7 million per one-way shipment on average after rising to a 12-month high early in March.
