Latest news with #RyanDetrick
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what?
S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what? originally appeared on TheStreet. The naysayers were once again proven wrong. Despite an economy in turmoil, an uncertain Federal Reserve, and geopolitical unease, the S&P 500 has climbed the proverbial wall of worry and notched a new all-time high, surpassing levels last seen in February before President Trump's tariff announcements sent stocks reeling. The S&P 500's returns have been impressive, gaining more than 23% since Trump on April 9 switched gears and paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to hammer out trade deals. 💸. 📈 It's been an even more dramatic run for the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Since its early April low, that index has shot up more than 32%, largely on the back of AI powerhouses like Nvidia and Palantir, which have gained 64% and 95% over the period. The moves will likely have many scratching their heads, wondering what could happen next to the benchmark index. Fortunately, longtime analyst Ryan Detrick, chief strategist of Carson Group, has crunched the numbers to see what the S&P 500 historically has done in the wake of similar record-setting highs. The lifeblood of stock market returns is revenue and profit growth. The more sales and earnings, the more willing investors are to pay up for shares. Because of this, economic health is key to the S&P 500's performance. If households and businesses are expected to open their wallets more in the future, it's good for business, and that's good for stock market this year, worries that tariffs would spike inflation, crimping spending, led many to believe we were on the cusp of stagflation (inflation without GDP growth) or an outright recession. Those worries were compounded by the fact that the Fed hit the brakes on interest-rate cuts this year due to concerns that lower rates alongside tariffs would cause inflation to skyrocket. The concerns haven't fully disappeared, but they've retreated. While US GDP growth in the first quarter was slightly negative, most expect GDP to recover in the second quarter and for full-year GDP to be positive. The Federal Reserve pegs GDP growth at 1.4% this year, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking tool suggests second-quarter GDP increased by 3.4%. Of course, the GDPNow measure will change as more data arrive, but the Q2 numbers are likely to be solid. More Experts Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold TheStreet Stocks & Markets Podcast #8: Common Sense Investing With David Miller Veteran fund manager sends dire message on stocks If so, the US might sidestep a profit-busting economic reckoning, allowing investors to ratchet higher their models for corporate profit. Additionally, the stock market has become more optimistic about the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is under intense pressure from Trump to cut rates, and a wobbly jobs market could mean the Fed won't stay sidelined much longer as long as inflation remains in check. In April, core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the gauge favored by the Fed, showed prices rose 2.5% from one year ago. That's above the Fed's 2% target but arguably not overly concerning, given that the Fed cut rates by 1 percentage point last year when inflation was higher. The S&P 500 may have priced in a lot of the potential upside associated with a healthier-than-expected economy. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple, a key valuation measure investors use, peaked at more than 22 in February 2025 when the S&P 500 last made a new high. After retreating to 19 in April, the runup in stock prices has outpaced upward earnings revisions, causing the S&P 500's p/e multiple to swell again. According to FactSet, the benchmark index trades with a forward one-year p/e multiple of nearly 22. Historically, when the S&P 500's p/e multiple has been this high, gains in the following year have been harder to come by, with a negative average return from 1971 through 2020. History certainly isn't a guarantee, but Ryan Detrick considered what'd happened in the past when stocks behaved similarly, and his study also suggests lackluster returns are possible from here. "The S&P 500 hasn't hit a new high in more than four months, but that could end any day now," wrote Detrick on X. "Turns out, when it goes between 4-12 months without a new [all-time high] and then hits one, the forward returns are quite muted. Not once up double digits a year later. Hmm." Detrick spotted four prior instances that met his criteria for similarity. The average return one year after notching the new high after not having a new high for between four and 12 months is just 4.4%, significantly below the stock market's average 11%-plus annual return over the past 50 years. The shorter-term returns are potentially more concerning, though. In his study the average 3-month and 6-month returns for the S&P 500 were negative 5% and negative 1.3%, respectively. Of course, anything can happen. Much will depend on what actually happens with inflation, jobs, the Fed, and trade deals. Still, the data may suggest that investors should temper their outlook, at least for now. It's not all bad news for most investors, though. Remember, stock market weakness can provide a great opportunity to buy the dip on the market or individual stocks. Just ask anyone who bought stocks in April.S&P 500 hits all-time high - Now what? first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 27, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 27, 2025, where it first appeared. Connectez-vous pour accéder à votre portefeuille
Sky News AU
3 days ago
- Business
- Sky News AU
ASX 200 sinks on Thursday after mixed performance across major Wall Street indexes
The ASX 200 is down in the early moments of trading on Thursday following a mixed performance in the US. The index sank about 0.2 per cent after the first 25 minutes of trading with accounting software company Xero down 7.2 per cent amid investor backlash to its $4b bet on American accounting and invoicing platform Melio Payments. Credit Corp Group is down about three per cent while family safety app-owner Life360 and data centre owner DigiCo Infrastructure have both lost about 2.5 per cent. Wall Street was a mixed bag on Wednesday despite the major indexes climbing back to their February highs after the calamity of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. "It almost feels like back to your regularly scheduled bull market," Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha said. "We've dealt with the tariffs, we've dealt with the Middle East drama, but stocks continue to defy the odds by moving higher with the realization that the U.S. economy remains quite resilient." Shares in chip-maker Nvidia jumped to a new record high, boosting its market cap to US$3.77 trillion, bumping Apple to reclaim the title of world's most valuable company, after rallying more than 60 per cent since April. The Dow Jones sank 0.3 per cent, the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq added 0.3 per cent. London's FTSE 250 Index shed 0.1 per cent on Wednesday, Germany's DAX fell 0.6 per cent and the STOXX Europe 600 sank 0.7 per cent. New Zealand's NZX has shed 0.3 per cent while Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 0.6 per cent since trading began on Thursday. -With Reuters
Axios
3 days ago
- Business
- Axios
Tech leads stocks to records after bear market scare
The S&P 500 has been on a rollercoaster ride, nearing a new all-time high, only 77 days after dipping into an intraday bear market in April. Why it matters: Historically, a market recovery of this size and speed signals more gains ahead, so forget the prior lows. This relief rally is bullish. By the numbers: Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, crunched the numbers. Stocks are up more than 20% from the April 8 lows. A 20% rally in two months has only happened five other times since 1950. In all of those prior cases, stocks were higher 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. What they're saying: "We think the biggest risk to our view is that we're not bullish enough," Max Kettner, chief multiasset strategist at HSBC, wrote in a note to clients. Investors could be "underestimating the boost from AI and the weaker USD," he points out. That could drive efficiencies across the market and cushion any potential earnings weakness, respectively. Zoom out: What brings the market down tends to bring it back up. In this case: tech stocks. Losses in large-cap tech led the market to its April bottom. Now, XLK, an ETF that tacks the biggest tech names in the S&P 500, has hit its highest level in history. The intrigue: Dan Ives, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities, sees the tech rally gaining fuel from the removal of geopolitical risks. "With a weakened Iran and no nuclear capabilities, there is a growing view from tech investors that the opportunity for the Middle East to embrace the tech and AI boom is now on the doorstep being led by Saudi and UAE," he wrote in a note to clients. Reality check: It's not all roses. Market strategists say investors ignore recent headwinds such as trade turmoil and war at their own risk. What we're watching: Marci McGregor, the head of portfolio strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, expects stocks to be choppy in the months ahead.
Economic Times
07-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Wall Street posts weekly gains, Treasury yields jump as upbeat jobs data ease economic fears
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Friday and U.S. Treasury yields jumped as a generally upbeat employment report and bounce-back in Tesla shares helped the indexes notch weekly three major U.S. stock indexes surged, while bitcoin jumped and crude prices settled at their highest level since mid-April."Stocks bounced back nicely today," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "It's a recent theme we've been seeing; the day after a red day has been pretty strong. That's another clue that the bulls are in charge."The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May, topping analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.2%, the Labor Department said. The report also showed hotter-than-anticipated wage growth, which is unlikely to convince the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate in the near term."The headline number was solid, but clearly there is some deterioration and slowing when you peel back the onion," Detrick added. "The reality, though, is the labor market is still growing and the overall economy is still on fairly firm footing. That led to the relief rally to close out a solid week."Tesla stock rebounded 3.8% a day after a very public spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and his top advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, sent shares of Musk-helmed Tesla tumbling, which helped drag the indexes decisively falling out between the erstwhile allies revived concerns over Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" of tax and spending plans and its effect on the growing negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners remain fluid, with the European Union and India working toward ironing out deals, and further U.S.-China talks promised after Trump's phone call on Thursday with Chinese President Xi has granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers amid emerging supply chain snags due to Beijing's export curbs on the materials. On the flip side, the United States has suspended licenses for nuclear equipment suppliers to sell to Chinese power plants, according to people familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 443.13 points, or 1.05%, to 42,762.87. The S&P 500 climbed 61.06 points, or 1.03%, to 6,000.36 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 231.50 points, or 1.20%, to 19, shares followed their U.S. counterparts higher after the jobs report, notching their second consecutive weekly gains, buoyed by upbeat U.S. employment data and waning worries over trade gauge of stocks across the globe rose 5.27 points, or 0.59%, to pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.32%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 7.10 points, or 0.32%.Emerging market stocks rose 0.12 points, or 0.01%, to 1,182.80. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.1%, to 622.63, while Japan's Nikkei rose 187.12 points, or 0.50%, to 37, dollar rose against major currencies in the wake of the better-than-expected employment dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.51% to 99.18, with the euro down 0.42% at $ the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.87% to report also prompted a rally in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained 3.80% to $104,334.11. Ethereum rose 3.7% to $2,487.77.U.S. Treasury yields also rode the wave of the upbeat jobs benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 11.1 basis points to 4.506% from 4.395% late on 30-year bond yield rose 8.2 basis points to 4.9655% from 4.884% late on 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 11.7 basis points to 4.041%, from 3.924% late on prices registered their first weekly gain in three after Trump and Xi resumed trade talks, raising hopes of demand growth.U.S. crude rose 1.91% to settle at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 1.73% on the prices dipped in opposition to the strengthening greenback, as the jobs report clouded the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal gold fell 1.27% to $3,310.58 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.23% to $3,309.50 an ounce.
Time of India
07-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Wall Street posts weekly gains, Treasury yields jump as upbeat jobs data ease economic fears
U.S. stocks surged, fueled by a strong employment report and a Tesla rebound, leading to weekly gains across major indexes. The robust jobs data, coupled with rising wages, tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Trade developments, including U.S.-China talks and EU negotiations, also influenced market sentiment, while Treasury yields jumped and the dollar strengthened. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Friday and U.S. Treasury yields jumped as a generally upbeat employment report and bounce-back in Tesla shares helped the indexes notch weekly three major U.S. stock indexes surged, while bitcoin jumped and crude prices settled at their highest level since mid-April."Stocks bounced back nicely today," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "It's a recent theme we've been seeing; the day after a red day has been pretty strong. That's another clue that the bulls are in charge."The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May, topping analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate held firm at 4.2%, the Labor Department said. The report also showed hotter-than-anticipated wage growth, which is unlikely to convince the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate in the near term."The headline number was solid, but clearly there is some deterioration and slowing when you peel back the onion," Detrick added. "The reality, though, is the labor market is still growing and the overall economy is still on fairly firm footing. That led to the relief rally to close out a solid week."Tesla stock rebounded 3.8% a day after a very public spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and his top advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, sent shares of Musk-helmed Tesla tumbling, which helped drag the indexes decisively falling out between the erstwhile allies revived concerns over Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" of tax and spending plans and its effect on the growing negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners remain fluid, with the European Union and India working toward ironing out deals, and further U.S.-China talks promised after Trump's phone call on Thursday with Chinese President Xi has granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers amid emerging supply chain snags due to Beijing's export curbs on the materials. On the flip side, the United States has suspended licenses for nuclear equipment suppliers to sell to Chinese power plants, according to people familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 443.13 points, or 1.05%, to 42,762.87. The S&P 500 climbed 61.06 points, or 1.03%, to 6,000.36 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 231.50 points, or 1.20%, to 19, shares followed their U.S. counterparts higher after the jobs report, notching their second consecutive weekly gains, buoyed by upbeat U.S. employment data and waning worries over trade gauge of stocks across the globe rose 5.27 points, or 0.59%, to pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.32%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 7.10 points, or 0.32%.Emerging market stocks rose 0.12 points, or 0.01%, to 1,182.80. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.1%, to 622.63, while Japan's Nikkei rose 187.12 points, or 0.50%, to 37, dollar rose against major currencies in the wake of the better-than-expected employment dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.51% to 99.18, with the euro down 0.42% at $ the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.87% to report also prompted a rally in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained 3.80% to $104,334.11. Ethereum rose 3.7% to $2,487.77.U.S. Treasury yields also rode the wave of the upbeat jobs benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 11.1 basis points to 4.506% from 4.395% late on 30-year bond yield rose 8.2 basis points to 4.9655% from 4.884% late on 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 11.7 basis points to 4.041%, from 3.924% late on prices registered their first weekly gain in three after Trump and Xi resumed trade talks, raising hopes of demand growth.U.S. crude rose 1.91% to settle at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 1.73% on the prices dipped in opposition to the strengthening greenback, as the jobs report clouded the outlook for rate cuts from the Federal gold fell 1.27% to $3,310.58 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.23% to $3,309.50 an ounce.
