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Economic Times
16 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
FIIs' bearish derivatives bets on India surge to a 5-month high
Foreign investors are showing caution towards the Indian stock market. Derivative bets indicate a bearish outlook. Uncertainties surrounding global trade tariffs are a major concern. Muted quarterly results also contribute to the negative sentiment. The long-short ratio, a key market indicator, has fallen significantly. This reflects increased short positions by foreign institutional investors. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Mumbai: Overseas fund managers ' bearish derivative bets on India are at a five month-high as simmering uncertainties around tariffs and rich share valuations have made them wary about the market's near-term long-short ratio-a market sentiment indicator that compares the number of traders betting on a rise in prices (long positions) to those betting on a fall (short)-based on foreigners' derivative positions stood at 15% on Friday-lowest since February ratio reflects an aggressive build-up of short positions and a cautious near-term outlook from institutional investors, said Sudeep Shah, head, technical and derivative research at SBI ratio has sharply dropped from 36.7% at beginning of July, and from 20.2% at end of previous week, indicated data from SBI Securities. "Global trade tariff-related uncertainty amid fresh tariff threat by US to BRICS members and fresh tariff letters to many countries across the globe, along with muted quarterly numbers are the key reasons behind the recent fall in FIIs' long-short ratio ," said Vipin Kumar, assistant VP of derivatives and technical research at Globe Capital long-short ratio of foreign portfolio investors' bets was between 10% and 20% late last year and early in 2025, when the sentiment was a lot more bearish. Nifty and Sensex, which gained about 13% in over three months, declined nearly 1% each, marking their third straight weekly drop after a weak set of earnings by some banks and IT companies contributed to the ended at 24,968.4 levels on Friday, below the 25,000 mark for the first time since June 23. In July, FPIs have net sold Rs 17,000 crore after buying Rs 7,500 crore in June and Rs 11,770 crore in week, Citi downgraded India to 'neutral' from 'overweight', citing elevated valuations and a moderation in earnings growth forecasts. Jefferies' global equity strategist Chris Wood said markets are celebrating the 'AI capital expenditure trade' while ignoring risks from US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff technical charts are pointing to weakness in the stock market in the near-term, an extremely low reading of the long-short ratio is often taken as a signal that the worst is over.'It's worth noting that historically (6 times since January 2022), whenever the FII longshort ratio drops below the 15% mark, markets often witness a limited downside, as excessive pessimism tends to set the stage for short-covering rallies or a reversal in sentiment,' said will be important for the Nifty to stay above 24,800 for the sentiment to turn positive. 'Nifty's decisive close below 24,800 spot levels will be a negative development that might take it down towards 24,000 spot levels in near term, said Kumar. 'Although that will provide a fresh entry point for swing traders and value buyers,' he said.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty ends 3rd straight week in red, bearish momentum strengthens below 20 DEMA: Sudeep Shah
Markets continued their downward trend for a third straight week, as investors remained cautious amid a weak start to the earnings season and persistent uncertainty over the US-India trade agreement. ADVERTISEMENT Like the previous week, the benchmark indices displayed some resilience during the first three sessions, but sentiment turned negative in the latter half. Consequently, both the Nifty and Sensex closed near their weekly lows at 24,968.40 and 81,757.73, respectively. Analyst Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty for the upcoming week. Here are the edited excerpts from his chat: The benchmark index Nifty ended in the red for the third consecutive week, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment in the market. On the weekly chart, it has formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low structure — a classic indication of downward momentum. Throughout the week, the index attempted three times to reclaim its 20-day EMA but was rejected on each occasion. It is now trading decisively below the 20-day EMA, which has started to edge lower, further reinforcing the bearish the upward slope of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs has begun to flatten, signalling a potential loss of medium-term momentum. This slowdown in the EMA slope suggests growing indecisiveness and weakening strength among bulls. On the momentum front, the daily RSI is quoting at 43, marking its lowest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RSI is trading below its 9-day average, and both are in falling mode, indicating weakening internal strength and reinforcing the ongoing bearish setup. ADVERTISEMENT Going ahead, Monday's trading session will be crucial for the index as heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank are set to announce their Q1 results over the weekend. The reaction to these earnings could provide near-term direction and either amplify the current trend or spark a crucial levels, the zone of 24940-24900 will act as immediate support for the index, as it is the confluence of the 50-day EMA level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior upward rally (24473-25669). If the index slips below the 24,900 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 24,700 level. On the upside, the zone of 25,130-25,160 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. ADVERTISEMENT Yes, one of the key developments to watch is the ongoing tariff-related discussions between India and the US. Any escalation or resolution in these talks could have a direct impact on trade dynamics, especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT services, and industrial goods. ADVERTISEMENT The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, also extended its losing streak, ending in the red for the third consecutive week. On the daily chart, it witnessed a breakdown from a Rising Wedge pattern on Friday and also slipped below its 20-day EMA, which is a sign of growing bearish pressure.A key technical observation lies in the daily RSI behaviour. Despite a mid-week pullback, the daily RSI failed to surpass the 60 level, which is a bearish sign as per RSI range shift rules. Currently, the RSI is quoting at 45, its lowest level since March 2025, indicating a notable loss of momentum and growing weakness in the ahead, the 50-day EMA zone of 55,950-55,850 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 55,850 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 55300 level. On the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 56,700-56,800 will act as an important hurdle for the index. ADVERTISEMENT In the cash segment, FIIs have offloaded equities worth nearly 17,000 crores so far this month, indicating persistent selling pressure. Simultaneously, in the derivatives segment, the FII long-short ratio has slipped to just 15%, the lowest in the recent period. This reflects an aggressive build-up of short positions and a cautious near-term outlook from institutional it's worth noting that historically, whenever the FII long-short ratio drops below the 15% mark, markets often witness a limited downside, as excessive pessimism tends to set the stage for short-covering rallies or a reversal in sentiment. While the current data suggests a bearish stance by FIIs, the extremely low long-short ratio also indicates that much of the negativity may already be priced in, leaving room for a potential bounce if a positive trigger emerges. Technically, Dalmia Bharat, Godrej Properties, Bajaj Finance, Chennai Petro, and Sumitomo Chemical are likely to continue their outperformance. Technically, BDL, HAL, and Shiriram Finance are looking good from a short-sell the short term, both stocks are bearish as they are quoting below their 20-day EMA level. The RSI of Axis Bank is quoting below 40, which is a bearish sign. Further, the Reliance daily RSI is quoting below its 9-day average. Currently, the major trend for both HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank remains sideways, reflecting a lack of strong directional bias. On the technical front, the daily RSI for both stocks is oscillating in the 40–60 range, indicating a phase of consolidation and indecisiveness among traders. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
IREDA shares down 28% in 2025. Can the stock rebound past Rs 185 or is it time to sell?
After a scorching rally that saw shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) triple in less than a year, the state-run financier has lost nearly a third of its value in 2025, and over 40% from its peak. With the stock now trading below all key technical averages and investor confidence rattled by asset quality concerns, the question looms large: is this merely a pause before the next leg up, or has the market already priced in IREDA's green ambitions? ADVERTISEMENT On the face of it, IREDA's operational momentum remains intact. In the June quarter, loan sanctions rose 29% year-on-year to Rs 11,740 crore, while disbursements climbed 31% to Rs 6,981 crore. The company's outstanding loan book expanded 27% to Rs 79,960 crore, bolstered by strong demand across renewables, energy efficiency, green hydrogen, and EV infrastructure. But markets appear unconvinced. Shares are down 28% year-to-date, 5.9% in the past week alone, and 41.3% over the last 12 months. Since hitting an all-time high of Rs 283 in July 2024, the stock has corrected 43.6%, trading now at just 16.6% above its 52-week low of Rs 137 hit in March this year. From a technical standpoint, the picture is decisively bearish. IREDA is trading below all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.6 and MACD at -2.5 both signal waning momentum. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said, 'Since the last 4 months, the price has been trading sideways. During this period, the price tested its 200 DEMA twice but failed to sustain above the same.' He added that, 'the level of 185 on the upside is a strong resistance for the stock, while the level of 135 is likely to act as a strong support. Momentum [is] unlikely in the stock as long as the price trades within this range.' ADVERTISEMENT According to Shah, 'currently the RSI has dropped [below] 40, indicating weakening momentum. MACD, on the other hand, is below the zero line which further reinforces the bearish trend in the stock.' He warned there are 'no signs of base formation or reversal pattern on the charts.'Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking echoed this sentiment, noting that the stock 'faces strong resistance around Rs 175–180' and warned that 'a breach below [the] Rs 140 support level could trigger a deeper correction.' ADVERTISEMENT Shah sees a short-term breakout level at Rs 185 and said 'a strong close above Rs 185 can lead to price moving [to] Rs 210 level in the near term.'Whether the selloff reflects a deeper shift in investor sentiment or simply a bout of profit-taking remains contested. ADVERTISEMENT Shah believes 'this is more of [a] technical correction than a longer-term breakdown,' noting that prices recently bounced near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of Rs 50 (Nov 2023) to the high of Rs 310 (July 2024). However, he added that a fall below Rs 121—'a major swing low'—could invalidate this view and confirm a trend reversal. Amit Trivedi, Technical Analyst at YES Securities, was more cautious. 'Unless a strong base or reversal structure emerges, this appears to be more than a technical correction. The breakdown seems to be broad-based and systemic, not just a short-term overreaction.' ADVERTISEMENT Trivedi said that 'a close above Rs 175 with volumes could signal short-term strength,' but so far, 'no classical base formation is clearly visible.' Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza also flagged caution and said, 'It is still too early to look for any base formation or reversal pattern at current levels.' He pegged Rs 190 as a strong resistance zone and advised that 'fresh long positions are not recommended' without confirmation of a reversal. 'The major support is placed near Rs 119,' Kamble said. 'Given the ongoing downtrend, it is advisable to avoid anticipating a reversal here.'IREDA's sharp decline has come despite continued business growth. Yet concerns over asset quality and rising costs have overshadowed its operational Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that net profit for Q1FY26 dropped about 36% YoY to Rs 247 crore, "driven by a sharp rise in operating expenses (+60%) and a jump in NPAs (gross 4.13%, net 2.05%)—largely tied to exposure to the Gensol group.'While Jain sees long-term potential in IREDA's renewable energy portfolio and valuations that are 'reasonable to slightly cheap,' he noted that 'near-term earnings risk, asset quality concerns, and sentiment overhang… may keep the stock range-bound.'Jain also flagged 'NPA risk, operating leverage pressure, and dependence on refinancing' as key risks for the second half of Rs 185 has emerged as the widely watched resistance level, analysts are also pointing to other crucial inflection points that could dictate IREDA's next Bhojane, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that "currently, the stock is trading in a sideways trend. In the near term, a decisive close above Rs 170 could trigger fresh buying momentum, with upside targets of Rs 180 and Rs 190. On the downside, if the price breaks below Rs 153, it may lead to a correction toward Rs 140, which will act as a major medium-term support level and target in case of further weakness."Amit Trivedi of YES Securities also highlighted Rs 175 as an immediate hurdle, stressing the need for 'evidence of demand absorption' and 'a breakout above ₹175 on strong volumes' for any meaningful recovery to take Kamble from Bonanza added that without confirmation of a reversal, 'any short-term rise should be viewed as a selling opportunity within the prevailing negative trend.'With multiple resistance levels clustered between Rs 170 and Rs 185, and volume indicators failing to confirm accumulation, analysts suggest investors may be better served waiting for a definitive breakout rather than positioning prematurely. Also read | MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy? (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
IREDA shares down 28% in 2025. Can the stock rebound past Rs 185 or is it time to sell?
After a scorching rally that saw shares of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) triple in less than a year, the state-run financier has lost nearly a third of its value in 2025, and over 40% from its peak. With the stock now trading below all key technical averages and investor confidence rattled by asset quality concerns, the question looms large: is this merely a pause before the next leg up, or has the market already priced in IREDA 's green ambitions? On the face of it, IREDA's operational momentum remains intact. In the June quarter, loan sanctions rose 29% year-on-year to Rs 11,740 crore, while disbursements climbed 31% to Rs 6,981 crore. The company's outstanding loan book expanded 27% to Rs 79,960 crore, bolstered by strong demand across renewables, energy efficiency, green hydrogen, and EV infrastructure. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category But markets appear unconvinced. Shares are down 28% year-to-date, 5.9% in the past week alone, and 41.3% over the last 12 months. Since hitting an all-time high of Rs 283 in July 2024, the stock has corrected 43.6%, trading now at just 16.6% above its 52-week low of Rs 137 hit in March this year. From a technical standpoint, the picture is decisively bearish. IREDA is trading below all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.6 and MACD at -2.5 both signal waning momentum. 'Momentum unlikely' unless key resistance is breached Live Events Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities , said, 'Since the last 4 months, the price has been trading sideways. During this period, the price tested its 200 DEMA twice but failed to sustain above the same.' He added that, 'the level of 185 on the upside is a strong resistance for the stock, while the level of 135 is likely to act as a strong support. Momentum [is] unlikely in the stock as long as the price trades within this range.' According to Shah, 'currently the RSI has dropped [below] 40, indicating weakening momentum. MACD, on the other hand, is below the zero line which further reinforces the bearish trend in the stock.' He warned there are 'no signs of base formation or reversal pattern on the charts.' Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking echoed this sentiment, noting that the stock 'faces strong resistance around Rs 175–180' and warned that 'a breach below [the] Rs 140 support level could trigger a deeper correction.' Shah sees a short-term breakout level at Rs 185 and said 'a strong close above Rs 185 can lead to price moving [to] Rs 210 level in the near term.' Correction or breakdown? Whether the selloff reflects a deeper shift in investor sentiment or simply a bout of profit-taking remains contested. Shah believes 'this is more of [a] technical correction than a longer-term breakdown,' noting that prices recently bounced near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the low of Rs 50 (Nov 2023) to the high of Rs 310 (July 2024). However, he added that a fall below Rs 121—'a major swing low'—could invalidate this view and confirm a trend reversal. Amit Trivedi, Technical Analyst at YES Securities , was more cautious. 'Unless a strong base or reversal structure emerges, this appears to be more than a technical correction. The breakdown seems to be broad-based and systemic, not just a short-term overreaction.' Trivedi said that 'a close above Rs 175 with volumes could signal short-term strength,' but so far, 'no classical base formation is clearly visible.' Kunal Kamble , Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza also flagged caution and said, 'It is still too early to look for any base formation or reversal pattern at current levels.' He pegged Rs 190 as a strong resistance zone and advised that 'fresh long positions are not recommended' without confirmation of a reversal. 'The major support is placed near Rs 119,' Kamble said. 'Given the ongoing downtrend, it is advisable to avoid anticipating a reversal here.' Fundamentals intact, but sentiment shaky IREDA's sharp decline has come despite continued business growth. Yet concerns over asset quality and rising costs have overshadowed its operational performance. Nitin Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that net profit for Q1FY26 dropped about 36% YoY to Rs 247 crore, "driven by a sharp rise in operating expenses (+60%) and a jump in NPAs (gross 4.13%, net 2.05%)—largely tied to exposure to the Gensol group.' While Jain sees long-term potential in IREDA's renewable energy portfolio and valuations that are 'reasonable to slightly cheap,' he noted that 'near-term earnings risk, asset quality concerns, and sentiment overhang… may keep the stock range-bound.' Jain also flagged 'NPA risk, operating leverage pressure, and dependence on refinancing' as key risks for the second half of FY25. Rs 185: the pivot point? While Rs 185 has emerged as the widely watched resistance level, analysts are also pointing to other crucial inflection points that could dictate IREDA's next move. Mandar Bhojane, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that "currently, the stock is trading in a sideways trend. In the near term, a decisive close above Rs 170 could trigger fresh buying momentum, with upside targets of Rs 180 and Rs 190. On the downside, if the price breaks below Rs 153, it may lead to a correction toward Rs 140, which will act as a major medium-term support level and target in case of further weakness." Amit Trivedi of YES Securities also highlighted Rs 175 as an immediate hurdle, stressing the need for 'evidence of demand absorption' and 'a breakout above ₹175 on strong volumes' for any meaningful recovery to take shape. Kunal Kamble from Bonanza added that without confirmation of a reversal, 'any short-term rise should be viewed as a selling opportunity within the prevailing negative trend.' With multiple resistance levels clustered between Rs 170 and Rs 185, and volume indicators failing to confirm accumulation, analysts suggest investors may be better served waiting for a definitive breakout rather than positioning prematurely. Also read | MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy? ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
MobiKwik shares down 61% from peak, charts hint at upside till Rs 300. Should you buy?
Shares of One MobiKwik Systems, the parent company of digital payments platform MobiKwik, have staged an 11% rebound over the past week, offering a brief respite after a punishing 61% slide from their peak. But as the stock hovers near Rs 273, analysts and technical signals suggest its short-term rebound may soon run into stiff resistance, and the real test lies just ahead, at Rs 300. ADVERTISEMENT Analysts say the near-term momentum appears constructive but caution that key resistance levels around Rs 300 could prove difficult to breach unless backed by sustained buying and stronger fundamentals. 'Despite the price rising nearly 19% from the low of 229.30 made on 19th June, 2025, the overall trend is still down,' said Sudeep Shah, Head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, adding that "the stock is yet to give a successful close above its previous swing high,' and continues to post 'lower highs,' signalling that the broader trend has not yet reversed. Shah highlighted the Rs 228–231 zone as a strong support base, tested thrice over the past four months. 'To confirm this as a triple bottom reversal, the price needs to move up even higher and give a strong close above 300 levels,' he the stock is currently trading above five of its six key simple moving averages, from 5-day to 50-day, it remains below the 100-day SMA. The MACD stands at -1.4 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.7, just shy of the 60 mark often used to confirm momentum strength.'Whether the short-term bounce will sustain or the selling pressure might continue will depend on how the price behaves around its resistance zone of 300–305,' Shah said. 'Follow-up buying from these levels can drive the price further up while selling pressure around these zones can lead to price moving downwards again.' ADVERTISEMENT Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, said MobiKwik is 'showing early signs of base formation after a prolonged downtrend,' with prices holding above short-term moving averages. However, the stock still trades below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and the MACD remains negative, indicators of weak momentum. ADVERTISEMENT 'RSI at 53.7 points to early accumulation or consolidation rather than overbought conditions,' Mishra said. 'A breakout above Rs 295 with strong volume could pave the way for a medium-term move toward Rs 340, with a major hurdle at Rs 355.'Still, Mishra cautioned that 'the recent bounce appears tentative and may face selling pressure near resistance unless sustained buying emerges.' ADVERTISEMENT Kalp Jain, Research Analyst at INVasset PMS, said that while the stock has 'staged a short-term rebound of around 12% from recent lows,' the overall trend 'remains fragile.''The stock continues to trade well below key moving averages and its post-listing highs — a clear sign that market confidence hasn't fully returned,' Jain said, though he noted 'early signals of base formation are emerging.' ADVERTISEMENT With the stock closing above a prior resistance zone of Rs 268, Jain sees 'an encouraging technical development,' opening up a possible move toward Rs 282–288. 'A decisive close above Rs 288, supported by strong volumes, would be the first clear signal of a potential trend reversal.'But he remains cautious. 'The recent bounce in MobiKwik appears more like a short-covering rally than the start of a sustained uptrend,' Jain said, adding that without a breakout above Rs 288 and follow-through momentum, the rally 'may struggle to hold.'The stock's prolonged selloff has been exacerbated by weak operating performance. In Q4 FY25, MobiKwik reported a net loss of Rs 56.03 crore, widening sharply from Rs 67 lakh a year ago. Revenue rose just 2.6% year-on-year to Rs 278 crore, despite a 2.3x jump in payments GMV to Rs 3.31 lakh crore. EBITDA loss for the quarter stood at Rs 45.8 FY25, total income rose 34% year-on-year to Rs 119.2 crore, driven by a 142% increase in payments revenue. However, contribution margins remained low at 30% due to the revenue mix being heavily tilted toward payments. Revenue from financial product distribution declined amid sector-wide lending said that while the company trades at 3.3x book, 'such a premium is typically reserved for businesses with strong return ratios, steady cash flows, or clear visibility on profitability,' none of which currently apply to added that 'without meaningful traction in financial services, MobiKwik stays overly reliant on payment volumes, which offer limited operating leverage.' The street, Jain said, remains cautious due to the 'absence of consistent operating leverage and the persistence of EBITDA losses.'While some short-term indicators have turned positive, with the stock now trading above its 5-day to 50-day SMAs and the RSI nearing 60, analysts agree that Rs 300–305 remains a critical resistance Shah of SBI Securities pointed out that this zone has repeatedly capped past rallies and coincides with the 100-day exponential moving average. 'The price needs to give a close above its previous highs first and then show signs of follow-up buying supported by a rise in volumes and improving momentum indicators and oscillators,' he said. Until then, he advises investors to adopt a 'wait and watch approach.'Shah also noted that while the RSI has crossed 60 for the first time since January, indicating strengthening momentum, 'until the price doesn't give a strong close above its resistance zones, i.e. 300–305, it is difficult to call this pullback a reversal yet.'Ajit Mishra echoed a similar view, with Rs 295 identified as a near-term ceiling. 'A breakout above Rs 295 with strong volume could pave the way for a medium-term move toward Rs 340,' he Jain agreed that this range is pivotal. 'A clean breakout above Rs 288 could extend the upside toward Rs 310,' he said, but such a move would require 'both fundamental traction and broader market support.'Until this level is convincingly crossed, analysts believe the current rally is more likely to be seen as a technical bounce than the beginning of a sustained reversal. Also read | Mobikwik's net loss widens to Rs 55 crore as revenue growth remains flat (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
