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The Diplomat
2 days ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
How Iran Sees the China-US Trade War
As the expiration date for the truce in the trade war between the United States and China approaches, policymakers in Tehran see both immediate risks and potential long-term opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is demonstrated in analysis produced by the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations (SCFR), an entity tasked with advising Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on diplomatic affairs. Although not a decision-making body, the SCFR can indicate the direction of Iranian policymaking, due to its proximity to Khamenei's office and the involvement of key loyalists to the Supreme Leader, including former presidential contender Saeed Jalili. In its assessments of the China-U.S. trade war, the SCFR reveals how the Islamic Republic sees the rift between Washington and Beijing, while having little ability to influence its outcome. Amid international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, Iran has expanded its engagement with China. In recent years, China emerged as a critical economic partner for Iran – receiving up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, according to some reports. While the United States has sought to curtail these trade links, evasive shipping practices, avoidance of dollar transactions, and the use of 'teapot' refineries have enabled Iran and China to bypass sanctions. This has offered the Islamic Republic a crucial economic lifeline. Their partnership was formalized under a broader 25-year cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing signed in 2021. Outside of the energy sector, Iran's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated Chinese infrastructure and utilities investment. In the wake of conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation has also emerged that Iran could bolster its security ties to China, especially amid military setbacks and apparent frustrations with Russia. The U.S. has sought to counter Iran's movement toward China, especially under the Trump administration, as a means of enhancing leverage over the Islamic Republic. During the past several months, Washington has moved to sanction entities involved in transporting and refining Iranian oil for the Chinese market. In the short term, upholding the status quo between the U.S. and China would be in Iran's interest, either by Beijing and Washington maintaining the interim tariff reduction deal or reaching a more permanent settlement. According to SCFR analysis, a reinvigorated China-U.S. trade war could harm Iran's economic lifeline, by reducing China's demand for production inputs like oil. Given its dependence on the Chinese market, this would have significant ramifications for Iran's already weak economy. It would also intensify inflation and weaken Iranian foreign currency reserves, both of which have been recurrent issues for the Islamic Republic's monetary system. Compounding these factors, diminished exports to China would strengthen sanctions enforcement by the West, which the Islamic Republic has failed to significantly alleviate via diplomatic means. As Iran seeks to regain its footing ahead of renewed competition with Israel, these pressures could undermine efforts to curb domestic dissent and replenish its military forces, leading to wider strategic challenges. Iran also sees opportunity in the China-U.S. trade war, as a potential disruption to the existing international order. In particular, the potential long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar could support Iran's strategic interests. As noted by one SCFR publication, reducing the dollar's dominance as the world reserve currency would diminish the efficacy of sanctions and relative U.S. economic power. This would dovetail with efforts by the Islamic Republic to support other global 'de-dollarization' initiatives, including the formation of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization bank and the expansion of the BRICS New Development Bank. Nevertheless, the SCFR may be overly optimistic on the prospects of de-dollarization, as a clear alternative has yet to emerge. Additionally, the SCFR claims that China could seek to develop new export markets in the Middle East, including Iran, necessitating a stronger economic and diplomatic push in the region. This would be to Iran's advantage, as it could entail further Chinese investment and non-oil trade, both of which the Islamic Republic has consistently pursued. That said, Chinese direct investment in Iran has been limited thus far. It is also to China's advantage that Iran is economically weak and isolated, as it enables the import of Iranian oil at a significant discount. Despite limited influence over the situation, the SCFR asserts that the China-U.S. trade war must be 'optimally utilized' to Iran's advantage. In particular, it identifies 'global polarization' and economic uncertainty as factors that could create opportunities for deepening trade relations with other developing states. Specifically, Brazil and India are highlighted as potential import partners, with the potential to reduce Iran's dependence upon any single patron. However, it is unlikely that either could match China's energy demand. Furthermore, much of Iran's success in diversifying commercial relations has come through states such as Belarus and Serbia, which are unlikely to import Iranian oil in significant amounts, despite offering certain opportunities. Overall, the SCFR's assessment reflects a lack of options for the Islamic Republic to proactively shape the situation to its advantage. This further indicates that the status quo may be Tehran's preferred outcome, for the time being. In sum, the SCFR's perspective on the China-U.S. trade war reveals a reactive posture. This is marked by an effort to preserve the Islamic Republic's current advantages while seeking new openings amid global economic shifts, primarily designed to erode and challenge U.S. influence. Still, Iran's ability to capitalize on these developments remains constrained by structural weaknesses, international isolation, and its growing dependence on its energy exports to China. As such, Tehran's strategic calculus ultimately hinges on maintaining regime resilience, while seeking space to balance and maneuver within broader great power competition.
Irish Times
24-04-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Insurers' reinsurance deals with overseas parents muddy earnings
The high reliance of Ireland's predominantly overseas-owned insurance sector on reinsurance contracts with their parent companies makes it difficult to use key annual filings to assess the underlying profitability of risk they are writing in the State. A scan through the annual solvency and financial condition reports (SCFR) of the top five insurers in the market shows that they ceded 40 per cent of their combined €3.42 billion of premiums written by the local entities. Most were reinsured with their overseas parents. Take Aviva Insurance Ireland , the third-largest insurer in the market, which generated €668 million of premiums last year (though about €84 million of these are estimates to relate to foreign business written through a UK branch). It reported in its latest SCFR, which it is obliged to submit to regulators annually, that it made an underwriting profit of €15 million last year. However, the unit has an arrangement in place to reinsure 70 per cent of general and health insurance risks – essentially passing on associated premiums – with its immediate parent, UK-based Aviva Insurance Limited. It passes on between 85 per cent and 100 per cent of other business written. READ MORE Aviva Insurance Ireland noted that €70 million in net underwriting profit on business originated by the Irish unit ended up with the UK unit under the reinsurance deal. But at least Aviva gave that level of detail. RSA Insurance Ireland reinsured €306.8 million of its €399.9 million of gross written premiums last year, mainly to its parent. However, it does not disclose the level of profits that were ceded as a result. Allianz Ireland has the third-highest intragroup reinsurance arrangement, with a 50 per cent quota share agreement with Allianz Re Dublin. Axa Ireland , the largest insurer in the Republic, and FBD Holdings , the only indigenous Irish player, reinsured 2.6 per cent and 7.6 per cent of the business they wrote last year, respectively. FBD reinsures with third parties; Axa Ireland did not report any deal with its French parent. To be sure, reinsurance deals with overseas parents help spread risk and shores up the Irish units during bad times – and helps insurers to have more consistent risk appetite. But they – and the related accounting of reinsurance commissions – also muddy the waters and make it more difficult to users of SCFRs and annual reports to assess the underlying profitability – or otherwise – of risk written in Ireland.
Yahoo
27-01-2025
- General
- Yahoo
Boat engulfed in flames at Stafford County marina
STAFFORD COUNTY, Va. () — Crews were at the scene of a large boat fire that broke out Sunday night at Hope Springs Marina in Stafford County. Stafford County Fire and Rescue (SCFR) units responded to the marina along Hope Springs Lane just before 10 p.m. on Jan. 26. There, they found a large vessel, still attached to a dock, 'well involved with fire.' West Virginia resort destroyed in overnight fire Crews were able to extinguish the fire while they were on the dock, as well as from the water with Fire Boat 1500, which happened to be docked at the same marina. Booms were also placed in the water to prevent the spread of hazardous materials. No one was hurt and no other vessels were damaged by the fire. The SCFR said the incident is under routine investigation by the Fire Marshal's Office. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
