Latest news with #SETIndex
Bangkok Post
2 days ago
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai stocks jump on bets political turmoil may spur rate cuts
Thai shares jumped most in a week on Tuesday after the Constitutional Court's suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra raised hopes of further interest-rate cuts, while the baht held steady against the dollar. Ms Paetongtarn was suspended from duty pending a ruling on a case seeking her dismissal for breaching ethical standards during a recent telephone conversation with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen. Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit will serve as acting prime minister, though Ms Paetongtarn can still attend cabinet meetings in her other role as culture minister, following a cabinet reshuffle this week. The court's decision adds to mounting pressure on a government fighting for survival, given the daunting economic challenges it is facing. The Stock Exchange of Thailand jumped 1.8% in the afternoon session, led by shares of Delta Electronics Thailand Plc, which soared more than 7%. The SET Index ended the day at 1,110.01 points, an increase of 20.45 points in turnover worth 41.7 billion baht. Analysts attributed the sharp jump in stocks to expectations that political uncertainty could pave the way for further rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand. '(The court's decision) could exacerbate external uncertainties as tariff negotiations with the US are still in progress but it could also clear the way for a more sustainable solution,' said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior Asean economist at OCBC. She predicted a cumulative 75 basis points in interest rate cuts in the second half, compared with a baseline assumption of 25 bps. The baht dipped briefly to 32.61 to the dollar after the court's decision, but recovered somewhat to trade around 32.46. 'Thai assets have weathered the PM's suspension quite well, which perhaps reflects the view that change of any sort at the top could well turn out to be a positive development,' said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Free Malaysia Today
23-06-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
UBS downgrades Thai stocks to ‘neutral' as political woes weigh
Thailand's benchmark SET Index fell to a five-year low last week. (EPA Images pic) BANGKOK : UBS Group AG strategists downgraded Thai stocks to 'neutral' from 'overweight', citing recent political uncertainty, which could impact policy direction and investor sentiment. Inflows into additional schemes for the Thai ESG fund have been underwhelming, showing weak sentiment toward equities, while recovery in tourism from China has been weaker than expected, strategists, including Sunil Tirumalai, wrote in a note today. The reduction marks a reversal of the brokerage's upgrade of the market just three months ago, given the reemergence of risks that drove a selloff early in the year. A lack of near-term positive catalysts may limit returns into the second half, while some of the supportive factors put forward by UBS in March 'haven't played out as expected'. Thailand's benchmark SET Index fell to a five-year low last week as uncertainty over the stability of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government casts a pall over the economic outlook. A widening rift in the ruling coalition may stall key legislation, undermine US tariff talks and shake investor confidence in already-underperforming Thai assets. Foreigners have net sold the nation's stocks for five straight days through Friday, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The Thai stock exchange has temporarily tightened curbs on daily movement for shares to manage market volatility. Stocks will be allowed to rise or fall by 15% from the previous close, versus 30% previously. 'Due to the unrest in the Middle East region, concerns about regional stability and global economic trends have increased,' the bourse said in a statement late yesterday. The curbs take effect today and remain in place till as long as June 27.
Business Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
UBS downgrades Thai stocks to neutral as political woes weigh
[SINGAPORE] UBS Group strategists downgraded Thai stocks to neutral from overweight, citing recent political uncertainty which could impact policy direction and investor sentiment. Inflows into additional schemes for the Thai ESG fund have been underwhelming, showing weak sentiment towards equities, while recovery in tourism from China has been weaker than expected, strategists including Sunil Tirumalai wrote in a note on Monday (Jun 23). The reduction marks a reversal of the brokerage's upgrade of the market just three months ago, given the re-emergence of risks that drove a sell-off early in the year. A lack of near-term positive catalysts may limit returns into the second half, while some of the supportive factors put forward by UBS in March 'have not played out as expected'. Thailand's benchmark SET Index fell to a five-year low last week as uncertainty over the stability of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government casts a pall over the economic outlook. A widening rift in the ruling coalition may stall key legislation, undermine US tariff talks and shake investor confidence in already-underperforming Thai assets. Foreigners have net sold the nation's stocks for five straight days to Friday, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The Thai stock exchange has temporarily tightened curbs on daily movement for shares to manage market volatility. Stocks will be allowed to rise or fall by 15 per cent from the previous close, versus 30 per cent previously. 'Due to the unrest in the Middle East region, concerns about regional stability and global economic trends have increased,' the bourse said in a statement late Sunday. The curbs take effect on Monday and remain in place till as long as Jun 27. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thai stocks may fall to Covid lows amid political crisis: analyst
[SINGAPORE] Thailand's stock market cannot catch a break – the fallout from a major political crisis may further rock the worst-performing market in the world this year. Amid the existing headwinds from tariff uncertainty and the faltering tourism revenue, the Stock Exchange of Thailand's (SET) benchmark index has already wilted 23.8 per cent since the start of the year as at Friday (Jun 20), placing it last among all global equity indices, according to Bloomberg data. The market sell-off intensified in recent days as political jitters flared, following a leaked phone call between officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh which heightened tensions along the Cambodian border. With economic headwinds already pressuring sentiment, analysts warn the bloodbath on the bourse may not yet be over. 'If foreign fund outflows accelerate and the prime minister faces calls to resign or a no-confidence vote, the SET Index could test 2020 Covid lows,' said Manish Bhargava, chief executive at Straits Investment Management. The index had fallen to a low of 969.1 points in March 2020, a level not seen since late-2011. Thailand's stock exchange was the worst-performing bourse in Asean on Thursday, with the SET Index plunging 2.4 per cent to 1068.7 – its sharpest drop this year – after the call was leaked on Wednesday. While other regional markets also posted losses, they did not match the scale of the Thai sell-off, underscoring growing investor unease as the kingdom faces domestic instability and macro headwinds. The losses came as a leaked phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen on Wednesday incited the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) to announce its exit from the ruling coalition government. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up BJT's withdrawal leaves the ruling coalition, led by Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party, with a slim majority by just 18 seats. As calls for her resignation escalate and other coalition partners threaten to withdraw, uncertainty has arisen over the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle, or a snap election that may lead to a political stalemate. This could mean a three to six-month wait for a new government to take office, said CGS International (CGSI) analyst Kasem Prunratanamala in a note on Wednesday night. 'We believe that it would be difficult for the SET to perform during this period.' Bhargava noted: 'Key sectors that are sensitive to political stability – banks, infrastructure and utilities – will likely lead declines.' Others, however, remained optimistic. OCBC Asean economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng maintained a baseline scenario of the political situation staying contained in a note on Jun 18, citing Paetongtarn's reconciliatory tone. The SET Index closed lower on Friday at 1067.6 points, falling 0.1 per cent. Tourist slump A slump in tourist arrivals to Thailand has reverberated through its economy, with the sector accounting for around 12 per cent of gross domestic product and employing more than 20 per cent of workers in 2024, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT). Foreign tourist arrivals to the country dipped 11 per cent in May from the previous month, continuing what has been a slow start to the year for the industry. The 14.3 million tourist arrivals during the first five months of 2025 were down 2.7 per cent from the previous corresponding period last year, and brought in 1.9 per cent less revenue at about 668.4 billion baht (S$26.2 billion), according to a Bank of America note. The bourse's tourism sector, comprising stocks including spa operator Siam Wellness Group and hotel operators Central Plaza Hotel and Erawan Group, has fallen about 23.4 per cent since the start of the year. But hopes of a sector-wide revival have also led some analysts to look with more optimism at stocks that have been battered hard by the slump. 'The tourism sector has already priced in the bad news,' UOB said in a Jun 5 note, naming stocks such as Erawan Group and mall operator Central Pattana as rebound plays. 'We expect tourist arrivals to recover in the third quarter of 2025,' said UOB analysts Kitpon Praipaisarnkit and Krit Tanarattananon. Yet while the tourism sector's dips may have bottomed out, CGSI analyst Thanapol Jiratanakij does not foresee a 'swift recovery' in arrivals – largely owing to the declining popularity of the nation among Chinese tourists. Increasing safety concerns from incidents such as the abduction of a Chinese actor in January and an earthquake in March have put off some Chinese nationals, who have turned towards domestic tourism and other regional alternatives for leisure travel. Existing headwinds to tourist arrivals have also hit the country's retail sector, highlighted by unlisted retailer King Power's request to terminate its duty-free concession contracts with Airports of Thailand. Maybank had earlier downgraded the broader retail sector to neutral, with companies such as department store operator Central Retail receiving 'hold' ratings. The bank cited sector-wide headwinds in muted consumption, falling tourist arrivals and a subdued economic outlook. 'Restoring confidence among Chinese tourists will require real improvements in safety and perception,' CGSI's Thanapol said. 'In this regard, we believe the government still has considerable work to do.' But as Paetongtarn's leadership remains uncertain, such efforts to boost the domestic economy may no longer be on the cards. 'The timing could not be more inconvenient considering (the) external headwinds,' said OCBC's Venkateswaran and Ng. As observers await the BOT's policy decision on Jun 25, ANZ Asia economist Krystal Tan expects the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 1.75 per cent until the fourth quarter – but a worsening political gridlock may force the BOT into a rate cut. This may provide a catalyst to Thai stocks amid the wavering political situation, said CGSI's Kasem. He maintained the index's target at 1,200 points, citing its relative undervaluation to its peers.
Business Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Thai stocks may fall to Covid lows amid political crisis: analysts
[SINGAPORE] Thailand's stock market cannot catch a break – the fallout from a major political crisis may further rock the worst-performing market in the world this year. Amid the existing headwinds from tariff uncertainty and the faltering tourism revenue, the Stock Exchange of Thailand's (SET) benchmark index has already wilted 23.8 per cent since the start of the year as at Friday (Jun 20), placing it last among all global equity indices, according to Bloomberg data. The market sell-off intensified in recent days as political jitters flared, following a leaked phone call between officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh which heightened tensions along the Cambodian border. With economic headwinds already pressuring sentiment, analysts warn the bloodbath on the bourse may not yet be over. 'If foreign fund outflows accelerate and the prime minister faces calls to resign or a no-confidence vote, the SET Index could test 2020 Covid lows,' said Manish Bhargava, chief executive at Straits Investment Management. The index had fallen to a low of 969.1 points in March 2020, a level not seen since late-2011. Thailand's stock exchange was the worst-performing bourse in Asean on Thursday, with the SET Index plunging 2.4 per cent to 1068.7 – its sharpest drop this year – after the call was leaked on Wednesday. While other regional markets also posted losses, they did not match the scale of the Thai sell-off, underscoring growing investor unease as the kingdom faces domestic instability and macro headwinds. The losses came as a leaked phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen on Wednesday incited the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) to announce its exit from the ruling coalition government. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up BJT's withdrawal leaves the ruling coalition, led by Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai Party, with a slim majority by just 18 seats. As calls for her resignation escalate and other coalition partners threaten to withdraw, uncertainty has arisen over the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle, or a snap election that may lead to a political stalemate. This could mean a three to six-month wait for a new government to take office, said CGS International (CGSI) analyst Kasem Prunratanamala in a note on Wednesday night. 'We believe that it would be difficult for the SET to perform during this period.' Bhargava noted: 'Key sectors that are sensitive to political stability – banks, infrastructure and utilities – will likely lead declines.' Others, however, remained optimistic. OCBC Asean economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng maintained a baseline scenario of the political situation staying contained in a note on Jun 18, citing Paetongtarn's reconciliatory tone. The SET Index closed lower on Friday at 1067.6 points, falling 0.1 per cent. Tourist slump A slump in tourist arrivals to Thailand has reverberated through its economy, with the sector accounting for around 12 per cent of gross domestic product and employing more than 20 per cent of workers in 2024, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT). Foreign tourist arrivals to the country dipped 11 per cent in May from the previous month, continuing what has been a slow start to the year for the industry. The 14.3 million tourist arrivals during the first five months of 2025 were down 2.7 per cent from the previous corresponding period last year, and brought in 1.9 per cent less revenue at about 668.4 billion baht (S$26.2 billion), according to a Bank of America note. The bourse's tourism sector, comprising stocks including spa operator Siam Wellness Group and hotel operators Central Plaza Hotel and Erawan Group, has fallen about 23.4 per cent since the start of the year. But hopes of a sector-wide revival have also led some analysts to look with more optimism at stocks that have been battered hard by the slump. 'The tourism sector has already priced in the bad news,' UOB said in a Jun 5 note, naming stocks such as Erawan Group and mall operator Central Pattana as rebound plays. 'We expect tourist arrivals to recover in the third quarter of 2025,' said UOB analysts Kitpon Praipaisarnkit and Krit Tanarattananon. Yet while the tourism sector's dips may have bottomed out, CGSI analyst Thanapol Jiratanakij does not foresee a 'swift recovery' in arrivals – largely owing to the declining popularity of the nation among Chinese tourists. Increasing safety concerns from incidents such as the abduction of a Chinese actor in January and an earthquake in March have put off some Chinese nationals, who have turned towards domestic tourism and other regional alternatives for leisure travel. Existing headwinds to tourist arrivals have also hit the country's retail sector, highlighted by unlisted retailer King Power's request to terminate its duty-free concession contracts with Airports of Thailand. Maybank had earlier downgraded the broader retail sector to neutral, with companies such as department store operator Central Retail receiving 'hold' ratings. The bank cited sector-wide headwinds in muted consumption, falling tourist arrivals and a subdued economic outlook. 'Restoring confidence among Chinese tourists will require real improvements in safety and perception,' CGSI's Thanapol said. 'In this regard, we believe the government still has considerable work to do.' But as Paetongtarn's leadership remains uncertain, such efforts to boost the domestic economy may no longer be on the cards. 'The timing could not be more inconvenient considering (the) external headwinds,' said OCBC's Venkateswaran and Ng. As observers await the BOT's policy decision on Jun 25, ANZ Asia economist Krystal Tan expects the central bank to hold its benchmark rate at 1.75 per cent until the fourth quarter – but a worsening political gridlock may force the BOT into a rate cut. This may provide a catalyst to Thai stocks amid the wavering political situation, said CGSI's Kasem. He maintained the index's target at 1,200 points, citing its relative undervaluation to its peers.
