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Time of India
5 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
A Population Policy differentiated by States is what India needs
Drop Cap The recently released State of World Population (SOWP) 2025 by UNFPA estimates that India's estimated population is little over 1.46 billion in 2025, which is approximately 17.8% of the total world population. The population of India crossed that of China in mid-2023, making her the most populous country in the world. India's young population is still significantly large despite falling birth rates. About 24% fall in the age bracket of 0-14, 17% in 10-19 bracket, and 26% in 10-24 bracket. India's 68% population falls in the working age group of 15-64 bracket. With 2.4% of the earth's total landmass, it supports more than 17% of the global population. On this World Population Day (July 11), we need to pause and think about this issue seriously. Most of the policy thinkers seem to be too impressed with the phrase 'demographic dividend'. It is true that in demographic transition, a stage comes when the working age population becomes large and it is possible to take advantage of that moment. Many countries have taken advantage of this demographic dividend and progressed fast. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 60년 묵은 혈관 찌꺼기 ,,, '이것." 하나면 다른건 하지 않아도 됩니다! 면역력 Rg3의 비결 더 알아보기 Undo To our minds, the Harvard Professors knew but did not tell that this advantage can be taken only till the threshold or the tipping point (limited by the carrying capacity of a system) has not been breached. Beyond that a rising population becomes a burden and creates a drag which pulls back. This is the time when we should debunk the myth of demographic dividend. Any system has a carrying capacity beyond which the overload starts causing all kinds of problems. The concept of demographic dividend suits the developed countries to get cheap skilled and unskilled manpower from the developing countries. They welcome migration when required and stop it when they don't need them. This is somewhat true for intra-country migration also where highly populated and poor states have become cheap suppliers of labour for industries, agriculture, construction and service sectors like security, retail, drivers, domestic work etc. This sometimes gives rise to tension between the local people and the migrants as employment opportunities are limited. The recent rift in several states over use of local language is a subtle reflection of that. With the advent of AI, jobs are shrinking and are further going to shrink. Microsoft has done two rounds of retrenchment recently, laying off thousands of employees including the Director of AI! Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned that 50% of all white-collar jobs in the US could be lost to artificial intelligence. There have been large scale layoffs in India also in the recent past in the IT and other sectors. If less people are required to do the same work due to AI, where will young Indians find jobs? Migration will also not remain an option. There is a perceptible fall in fertility rates across the countries. The total fertility rate (TFR) of India has reduced to 2.0 which is below the replacement level fertility of 2.1, which means that we are gradually moving near the peak. TFR falling below 2.1 does not mean that our population will start falling immediately. Due to a phenomenon known as 'population momentum', the population will keep growing for several more decades. Newton's second law of motion applies to population dynamics too and it takes some time after applying the force (rendered by reduction in total fertility rate) to lose this momentum and become stable. As per the estimate of UN population division, it is expected that in a medium variant scenario, India's population may peak by 2064 at approximately 1.7 billion after which it will start to fall. D espite India being poised to become the fourth largest economy by the year end, she remains on the 122nd position in terms of per capita GDP on purchasing power parity. As per IMF data, in terms of nominal per capita GDP, India ranks 136th out of 188 countries at 2,878 USD. If the denominator is huge then ratio will always get affected adversely. Doctors per thousand, policemen per thousand, teachers per thousand etc. will remain woefully short from the international standards. Therefore, other than raising the supply side, it is important to control the demand (denominator) also. India is too huge to have one policy for every state. An analysis of Sample Registration System data for the year 2021 tells us that the TFR of states of India ranges from 1.4 to 3. While the TFR of West Bengal is at 1.4, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab at 1.5, Karnataka and Telangana at 1.6, which are all below the replacement level of 2.1, we have Bihar at 3.0, UP at 2.7, MP at 2.6 and Rajasthan at 2.4. Therefore, we need to have population policies differentiated by states, which are at different stages of demographic and fertility transition and have different needs in terms of fertility trajectory. Especially UP and Bihar with high population density need to be bold in their policy objective and applied tools of population stabilization. While the overall population of the country is expected to peak by 2064, the population of UP and Bihar will continue to rise many years even after that. During all big festivals of UP and Bihar, one can see pictures of long queues of migrants trying to get a seat in the trains carrying them home at various railway stations and stampede like situations. Do you remember any such pictures in the newspapers during South Indian festivals like Pongal or Onam? (Amit Mohan Prasad is a retired IAS officer who served as additional chief secretary, health in Uttar Pradesh during Covid pandemic. Akaash Mohan, an engineer, is a data enthusiast. Views expressed are personal.)
Mint
27-06-2025
- Science
- Mint
Elon Musk warns of population collapse due to falling birth rates: 'Have 3 kids to make up for...'
MuTech billionaire Elon Musk has raised concerns about what he considers humanity's most serious existential threat, 'falling birth rates'. In a post on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO reacted to a user referencing a Fortune report, which claimed that women need to have an average of 2.7 children to sustain population levels. Nawfal shared statistics, referencing Fortune, and pointed out that the widely accepted replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman is now considered outdated. He wrote, 'Scientists now say 2.1 kids per woman won't cut it — 2.7 is the real number needed to avoid long-term extinction. Right now, the U.S. is at 1.66, and most rich countries are even lower, including Italy at 1.29 and Japan at 1.30.' Nawfal further explained that the revised figure accounts for variables such as individuals who never have children and gender imbalances at birth. 'People who have kids do need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1 kid or population will collapse,' Musk said while reposting Nawfal's post. Musk has connected declining birth rates to the collapse of past civilisations, particularly ancient Rome. He once remarked, 'Low birth rates were the primary factor in their downfall — shockingly overlooked by most historians.' Framing the issue as both a mathematical and civilizational crisis, Musk has consistently warned of long-term consequences, famously stating, 'If you don't believe me now, just wait 20 years.' Over the past two decades, Elon Musk has fathered 14 children. He first became a parent in 2002 with the birth of his son Nevada Alexander, whom he shared with his then-wife, Canadian author Justine Wilson. Tragically, Nevada passed away at just 10 weeks old. Musk and Wilson later had five more children together: twins Vivian and Griffin, followed by triplets Kai, Saxon, and Damian. If you don't believe me now, just wait 20 years. A new report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN's reproductive rights agency, revealed that low fertility rates are increasingly common worldwide. In its most direct statement to date on falling fertility rates, the agency warns that hundreds of millions of people are unable to have as many children as they would like. Key reasons include the high cost of raising children and the difficulty in finding a suitable partner. Low birth rates were the primary factor in their downfall — shockingly overlooked by most historians. The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report by UNFPA, titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis,' highlighted that India's total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, which is below the replacement threshold of 2.1. 'India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates – from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,' said Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.
Indian Express
12-06-2025
- General
- Indian Express
Knowledge Nugget: UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025 – Must-know insights for UPSC
Take a look at the essential concepts, terms, quotes, or phenomena every day and brush up your knowledge. Here's your knowledge nugget for today. (Relevance: UPSC has asked questions on population, government policies to utlise demographic dividends, and key terms associated with it. Check them in the post-read questions. In this regard, understanding the SOWP Report 2025 is important for your UPSC exam.) The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report was released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). This year's report, 'The real fertility crisis: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world' has called for a shift from panic over falling fertility to addressing unmet reproductive goals. The report draws on academic research and new data from a UNFPA–YouGov survey spanning 14 countries, including India. 1. According to the report, one in three adult Indians (36%) face unintended pregnancies, while 30% experience unfulfilled desire for having either more or fewer children, and 23% face both. 2. SOWP Report 2025 underlines that millions of individuals are unable to realise their real fertility goals. This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. And, the answer lies in greater reproductive agency – a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family. 3. One in five people globally expect not to have the number of children they desire. The key drivers include the prohibitive cost of parenthood, job insecurity, housing, concerns over the state of the world, and the lack of a suitable partner. A toxic blend of economic precarity and sexism plays a role in many of these issues, the report shows. 4. In the case of India, financial limitations are one of the biggest barriers to reproductive freedom. Nearly four in 10 people say financial limitations are stopping them from having the families they want. Job insecurity (21%), housing constraints (22%), and the lack of reliable childcare (18%) are making parenthood feel out of reach. 5. Health barriers like poor general well-being (15%), infertility (13%), and limited access to pregnancy-related care (14%) add further strain. Many are also holding back due to growing anxiety about the future—from climate change to political and social instability. 6. According to United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA, 2024), India is now the world's most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people – a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins falling, around 40 years from now. Why is it called UNFPA? High fertility and low fertility duality case of India 1. Replacement-level fertility is commonly defined as 2.1 births per woman, which is the rate at which a population size remains the same from one generation to the next. India has reached the replacement-level fertility of 2.0, but the report pointed out that many people, especially women, still face significant barriers to making free and informed decisions about their reproductive lives and significant disparities persist across regions and states. These barriers create what the report identifies as India's 'high fertility and low fertility duality.' 2. Fertility has fallen below the replacement level (2.1) in 31 states/UTs, but remains high in Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), and Uttar Pradesh (2.7). Urban-rural gaps persist, and seven states have yet to reach replacement TFR in rural areas. In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi, many couples delay or skip childbirth due to costs and work-life conflict, especially among educated middle-class women. This duality reflects differences in economic opportunities, access to healthcare, education levels, and prevailing gender and social norms. Issue of Infertility in India The report highlighted that Infertility remains under-prioritised in India. Infertility needs to be considered for inclusion under the government's health insurance schemes, as suggested in the report. An estimated 27.5 million Indian couples face infertility, yet public sector services are limited, while private care remains expensive and largely confined to urban centres. 📍Positive Growth of Population: When the birth rate is more than the death rate between two points of time or when people from other countries migrate permanently to a region, it is called positive growth of population. 📍Negative Growth of Population: When there is a decrease in population between two points of time due to a fall in birth rate below the death rate or people migrate to other countries, it is called negative growth of population. 📍Density of Population: The number of persons per unit area is called the density of population. According to the 2011 Census, India's population density is 382 persons per square kilometer, and in states, Bihar has the highest density at 1106 persons per square kilometer. In 1951, it was 117 persons/sq km. What is the demographic dividend? FYI: The dependency ratio is equal to the population below 15 or above 64, divided by the population in the 15-64 age group. This is usually expressed as a percentage. The working-age population is generally defined as those aged 15-64 years. 📍Period of population explosion: The sudden increase in the population of the country is called a population explosion. In India, the decade of 1951-1981 is referred to as the period of population explosion. During this period, the average annual growth rate was as high as 2.2 percent. 📍Fertility Rate: The fertility rate refers to the number of live births per 1000 women in the child-bearing age group, usually taken to be 15 to 49 years. Total fertility rate (TFR) 📍Total Fertility Rate (TFR): According to the website of OECD, the total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates (1) The total fertility rate in an economy is defined as: (UPSC CSE 2024) (a) the number of children born per 1000 people in the population in a year. (b) the number of children born to couple in their lifetime in a given population. (c) the birth rate minus death rate. (d) the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age. (2) India is regarded as a country with 'Demographic Dividend''. This is due to– (UPSC CSE 2011) (a) Its high population in the age group below 15 years. (b) Its high population in the age group of 15-64 years. (c) Its high population in the age group above 65 years. (d) Its high total population. (Source: NCERT, 'Millions unable to realise reproductive goals': UNFPA State of World Population Report 2025 reveals crisis of fertility aspirations, India becomes world's most populous nation: What's behind the population numbers?) Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X. 🚨 Click Here to read the UPSC Essentials magazine for May 2025. Share your views and suggestions in the comment box or at Khushboo Kumari is a Deputy Copy Editor with The Indian Express. She has done her graduation and post-graduation in History from the University of Delhi. At The Indian Express, she writes for the UPSC section. She holds experience in UPSC-related content development. You can contact her via email: ... Read More
India.com
11-06-2025
- Politics
- India.com
India's Population Reaches 1.46 Billion In 2025, But Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement Level: UN Report
New Delhi: While India continues to be the most populous country, with an estimated 1.46 billion people in 2025, the country's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the latest report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) released on Tuesday. The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report underscores that the real crisis lies not in population size, but in the widespread challenges to support individuals' right to decide freely and responsibly if, when, and how many children to have. The UN report estimates 'India's population at present at 1,463.9 million'. 'India is now the world's most populous nation, with nearly 1.5 billion people -- a number expected to grow to about 1.7 billion before it begins falling,' the report said. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India is currently 2.0 children per woman. This means that on average, a woman in India would be expected to have 2 children during her childbearing years (typically ages 15-49). This rate has remained constant since 2020, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2021. However, the new report showed it has declined to 1.9 births per woman, which means that, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, without migration. Despite the slowing birth rate, India's youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the age bracket of 0-14, 17 per cent in 10-19, and 26 per cent in 10-24. While 68 per cent of the population accounts for the 15-64 age bracket, the elderly population (65 and older) stands at seven per cent. As of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women. The UN report also placed India in a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with the population doubling time now estimated at 79 years. 'India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates -- from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today -- thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,' said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative. 'This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning million more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities," Wojnar added.
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First Post
11-06-2025
- Health
- First Post
Indian women are having fewer children. Is this good news or bad?
India's total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, as per a recent United Nations demographic report. This means women are having fewer children than required to maintain a stable population. But is it a cause of concern yet? read more Newborn babies are pictured inside a ward of a government hospital for women and children on the occasion of World Population Day, in Chennai on July 11, 2023. File Photo/AFP India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dipped below the replacement rate, according to a new United Nations demographic report. It also estimates that the South Asian country's population will touch 1.46 billion (146 crore) in 2025. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)'s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis', calls for a shift from panic over declining fertility to addressing unfulfilled reproductive goals. It states that millions of people are unable to meet their real fertility goals, which is an actual crisis than under- or overpopulation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Is falling fertility a cause of major concern for India? Let's take a closer look. What UN report reveals India's total fertility rate has plunged to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the UN's SOWP report. A replacement level is the average number of new births needed to maintain a stable population. The report predicts that India's population could reach 1.7 billion (170 crore) in the next 40 years, before it starts declining. While India's birth rate has slowed, its youth population remains significant, with 24 per cent in the 0-14 age bracket, 17 per cent in 10-19 group, and 26 per cent in the 10-24 age group. Why India's fertility rate has dropped The UN demographic report adds to previous reports that confirmed India's fertility rate was plummeting. A Lancet study last year found that the country's total fertility rate is declining irreversibly to 1.29, far below the replacement level. According to the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD)-2021, India's fertility rate of 6.18 in the 1950s dropped to 4.60 in 1980 and further to 1.91 in 2021. The study also forecast that the TFR could fall further to 1.04 — just one child per woman — by 2100. There are various reasons behind India's falling fertility, which has sparked concerns, especially in southern states that fear the loss of parliamentary seats post the delimitation exercise. India has one of the oldest family planning programmes that encourages people to have a maximum of two children through incentives and disincentives. 'During that time, the system required a lot of effort to change the mindset of the Indian population. Slowly, that behaviour change started showing up. Infant mortality declined substantially (because of various maternal and child health-related programmes and successful immunisation) meaning child survival was guaranteed. Small families became the norm,' Prof Anjali Radkar, head of the Centre for the Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policy and dean of academic affairs, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, told Indian Express last year. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Men sit next to a board displaying information about the different family planning methods available, during a sterilisation camp set up at a primary health care centre in Belwa village, Kishanganj district, Bihar, March 20, 2023. File Photo/Reuters The increase in female literacy and women's participation in the workforce are other big factors behind a steady fall in fertility rates. Amid little help from their husbands in raising the child, women are no longer ready to sacrifice their careers for motherhood. They are also increasingly exercising their agency in choosing whether to even have a child or not, instead often picking career and financial independence. As more and more young Indians move to foreign countries for higher studies and jobs and settle there, migration could be another factor for a fall in fertility levels. 'India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates, from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,' Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, said, as per PTI. 'This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning million more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups,' she added. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to show how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together,' Wojnar stated. Is India's falling fertility a cause for worry? A decline in fertility rates results in demographic transition, such as an ageing population and a reduction in the young workforce. 'By 2050, the share of senior citizens in India will be more than 20 per cent, that is one in five people. This is what China is already showing signs of as a consequence of the one-child family policy,' Dr Radkar told Indian Express last year. Many southern states in India that have effectively managed their population are already facing the consequences of slowing birth rates. As per The Hindu, fertility has dropped below the replacement level in 31 states and Union Territories. However, it continues to be high in Uttar Pradesh (2.7), Bihar (3.0) and Meghalaya (2.9). Last year, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu urged people to have more children . Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat also expressed concerns about India's falling fertility rate and advocated for at least three children. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD However, demographers say there is no need for alarm yet. 'As a demographer, I don't think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments,' Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences, told BBC last year. Instead, demographers say India's rapidly ageing population is concerning, as states have limited resources to support the elderly. As fewer children are born, it would increase the gap between the elderly and young people required to care for them. Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are not equipped to deal with the demographic shift. 'Robust investments in prevention, palliative care, and social infrastructure are urgently needed to look after the ageing,' Goli said to BBC. Experts also say that worry about labour shortages due to declining fertility is misplaced. This challenge can be overcome by promoting migration and focusing on extending the healthy years of the elderly. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The other challenge is to create decent full or part-time work for people in the age group of 60 to 75 years. Presently, their work participation is higher than most developing countries and the world because household survival strategies force them to enter the labour market. The imperative, instead, should be to relieve them from the drudgery of work while also providing decent employment. The country's healthcare system needs to improve and building old age homes for the elderly single and couple is long overdue,' Amitabh Kundu, Professor Emeritus at L J University, Ahmedabad, wrote for Indian Express last year. He argued that the demographic changes could push more women into the workforce and 'take their place in the labour market'. 'For women to be able to manage careers with motherhood, it would be crucial for men to take greater responsibility for household and care work. Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates,' Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India, told the newspaper. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD With inputs from agencies
