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Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Will More Crazy Tariffs Stop The Most Hated Market Rally?
Food inflation, Consumer price index or CPI. Prices of commodities and consumer goods rose due to ... More rising inflation. Consumer goods float with air balloons. After a strong performance on Thursday, the stock market gave up some of its gains on Friday for a mixed weekly close. New tariff threats on Canada and Mexico did raise the market's concern of more tariff chaos in the weeks ahead. Overall many are looking for just a slight increase in the CPI on Tuesday. FactSets consensus estimates are looking for an increase to 2.6% on an annual basis up from 2.4% in May. It is expected that core good prices will be higher in addition to health and travel services. On the plus side a decline in auto prices is expected as the demand is now lower after the strong buying in March and April. Shelter prices are also expected to move lower. A decline in the CPI is expected to increase the odds of a September rate cut that is currently at 60%. If instead the CPI increases then the Fed has the room to hold off longer on cutting rates. Markets The market scoreboard was split, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average and Dow Jones Utility Average both up 1% for the week, followed by a 0.7% increase for the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1% while the NYSE Composite closed down 0.9%. The S&P 500 made an a new record on Thursday but then declined Friday to close down 0.3% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 was just a bit weaker as it was down 0.4% while the iShares Russell 2000 closed down 0.6%. On a year-to-date basis, GLD is still the big winner, up 27.7% while NDX, the S&P, and NYSE Composite are up from 8.4% to 6.4%. There are a number of performance milestones as well as advance/decline signals this year that point to even better stock gains for the rest of the year. S&P 500 Returns After A Three Month Rally This chart from Ryan Detick and Carson Investment Research shows what has happened in the past after a three-month rally of more than 25% in the S&P 500. If there is an average six-month return of 16.9% it would surprise most on Wall Street and beat most year-end targets. Ryan has been one of the few analysts that has been bullish since the 2022 market lows. Spyder Trust (SPY) The Spyder Trust (SPY) formed a doji last week, which is often considered a sign of indecision between the bulls and bears. A close this week below the doji low at $617.87 would trigger a weekly doji sell signal. The rising 20-week EMA at $589.05 is now strong support. Last week on the NYSE, the A/D ratio was negative, and the S&P 500 Advance/Decline did turn lower. In April, the A/D line moved above the late 2024 high, line b. This signalled that SPY would also eventually move to a new high and above the February high of $613.23. This did occur on June 27th, and SPY has since made a series of new highs. There is good A/D line support at its rising WMA and line b. In last weeks survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) , the bullish % declined to 41.4% from 45%. The bearish % rose to 35.6% from the prior week's 33.1%. The AAII Bull-AAII Bear declined to 5.8% but it had reached -40% at the March-May lows. This was an historically low level of bullish Trust With A/D Line As I have noted in the past, the performance after a Zweig Breath Thrust (ZBT) signal, like the one on April 25th, is also quite impressive. 'Based on 19 signals since the 1940s, the average 6-month return for the S&P 500 after a ZBT signal was 14.8%, while the average 12-month return was 23.4%', according to Investopedia. The stock market decline from the early December highs, until the positive signals at the end of April, caused many to sell their stock positions. This helped to make the V-shaped rally from the lows even more hated. This is one of those frequent examples of why patience is often essential during many market declines. The daily S&P 500 A/D line formed a trading range starting in late January. There were several crosses in the A/D line above its WMA, but on April 23rd, a new uptrend was created. This was followed by the ZBT buy signal and move above the resistance, line c, on April 25th. The NYSE Stocks Only and NYSE All A/D line had also moved through their resistance, which was consistent with the end of their correction. Therefore, the weight of the evidence shifted in favor of the market bulls and limits the market risk. Then, just six days later, the S&P A/D line made a new high as the resistance at line b was overcome. SPY had closed at $566.76, but the new high in the S&P A/D line high projected a move in the SPY above the February high at $613.23. On June 27th, the SPY closed at $614.91. Invesco QQQ Trust From the April lows, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has outperformed the SPY by about 5% as it had dropped more sharply from the February highs. Last week, QQQ also formed a doji just 10 points below the monthly R1 pivot resistance at $564.30. The doji low was $549.58 with stronger support at $540.81 and the February high, line a,. The 20-week EMA is rising strongly, which is a positive sign and reveals support at $515.49. The NDX 100 A/D line moved back above its WMA the week of April 25th, line b, which was a sign the correction was over. The following week, the A/D line made a new high that projected a new high in the QQQ. That new high was attained just eight weeks later at the end of June. There was another new high just three weeks ago (line c), and the positive trend shows no signs of a major top. Many traders and investors have been fighting this rally for the past month. There was a slight increase in the index put/call ratio on Friday reflecting the view of some that a correction was likely. This is also consistent with the weekly doji formations that increases the odds of a pullback. The positive readings from the A/D lines suggest only a 2-3% pullback at this time and Tuesday's CPI report along with more tariff chaos may be the catalyst. I will be watching the trading in the stock index futures ahead of the report.
Business Insider
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Gold Loses its Shine as Trump Tariff Threats and Rate Outlook Shake Markets
Gold prices dimmed today on expectations that U.S. interest rates are unlikely to be cut later this month. Don't Miss TipRanks' Half-Year Sale Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Make smarter investment decisions with TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks, delivered to your inbox every week. Gold futures were 0.5% lower at $3,300.50 an ounce, while spot gold retreated 0.9% to $3,295.53 per ounce. Midas Untouched Investors lost the Midas touch because of fears over rising inflation. That has mostly been driven by President Trump's threat to impose 10% tariffs on BRICS nations, and the warning to 14 countries including Japan and South Korea of planned tariff increases set to take effect on August 1. Expectations that such tariffs could add to inflationary pressures have pushed U.S. yields higher, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may delay any potential rate cut. It makes its next decision on July 30. Generally, the gold price goes up when interest rates go down, and down when rates go up. 'The Fed Fund Futures market is expecting just less than 2 rate cuts for the rest of this year. Some analysts think that the Fed will scale back rate cuts, as tariffs weigh on the inflation outlook,' said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. Marex analyst Edward Meir said that a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields were putting pressure on gold. The U.S. dollar strengthened, hitting a two-week high. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries also remained elevated, near their highest levels in three weeks. Safe Haven Higher yields tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, while a firmer dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. But there is still hope for gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven in troubled times. There are still concerns over the impact of tariffs and whether it could lead to a global economic slowdown. Worries over geopolitical events in the Middle East, Asia and Europe also remain current. Such uncertainty this year has already helped drive gold-linked ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), up 27% in the year-to-date and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 56% over the same period.
Mint
7 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Investors are searching for the next gold. Don't get burned.
Gold's strength is drawing new investors into buying other precious metals, but be warned: Not all that glitters is as grand. The uncertain macroeconomic environment and rising government debt the past few years have made gold attractive. With a 24% annualized three-year price return, gold's radiant performance beats the S&P 500's annualized total return of 18.6%. Judging by inflows tracked by Morningstar into silver, platinum, and palladium exchange-traded funds, investors appear to be hunting for the next metal to hit it big. 'To a lot of people, [gold's strength] is a signal that hard assets are in vogue, and therefore, in a rising gold environment, other precious metals should rise," says Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, which offers two precious metals ETFs. Buyers have been rewarded this year, as seen by the gains in the biggest precious metal ETFs. The $101 billion SPDR Gold Shares is up 26.9%, the $17 billion iShares Silver Trust is up 27%, the $1.7 billion Abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF is up 50.7%, and the $512 million Abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF is up 21.5%. But investors shouldn't think that silver, platinum, and palladium are just a whiter shade of gold. Each metal is guided by its own supply and demand factors. 'Gold is very, very different than silver," says Robert Minter, director of investment strategy for ETFs at Aberdeen Investments. 'We often hear silver is gold junior, and it just makes my hair fall out." While gold functions as an alternative currency and a safe-haven investment, the other metals tend to follow the business cycle. Although silver has some currency-like aspects, 60% of the supply goes to industrial applications, such as photovoltaics. It's seeing growing demand from artificial-intelligence semiconductor chips, and that has contributed to demand outstripping supply over the past four years. Platinum, along with palladium, is chiefly used in automotive catalytic converters and in other industrial applications. Prices for the metals were range-bound for the past few years even though they had been in supply deficits, until tariff fears ignited after April's Liberation Day announcement. Platinum prices rallied sharply after China and other countries began stockpiling it, along with other critical industrial metals. Independent commodities analyst Sterling Smith recommends that new investors buy on dips, as all of the metals' gains come from price appreciation. Start with a core holding of about 50% gold, as it's the biggest and most liquid market. You could add silver—and platinum or palladium, to a smaller extent—if you have a bullish economic view. He suggests 15% in silver, 5% each in platinum and palladium, and the rest in gold-mining ETFs, such as the $15.8 billion VanEck Gold Miners. He cautions investors to limit their total allocation to 10% or less of their portfolio, as these are volatile commodities, whether they buy physically backed metals ETFs or mining funds. When selling physically backed ETFs, investors pay a higher tax rate, since the Internal Revenue Service considers these collectibles. Precious metals investor Adrian Day suggests a mix of physical metal and mining stocks for long-term investors with a moderate risk tolerance, with 30% in physical metals and 70% in miners. Gold should be at least half of the physical metal allocation. He includes a lesser amount of physical silver, since it is more volatile than gold and tends to have shorter but much stronger rallies. The smallest allocation would be to platinum and palladium. Day is wary of adding platinum at these levels because of its recent rally, unless you have a 10-year-plus horizon. Platinum and palladium 'are much more volatile than gold or silver and can be flat for a much longer period of time," he warns. Email: editors@
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold ETF Gains Outpace Bitcoin Funds in 2025
Gold exchange-traded funds are outperforming Bitcoin ETFs in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) posting a 24.4% year-to-date return compared to 14.5% for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), according to FactSet data. The performance gap highlights a shift in investor preferences as precious metals regain favor over cryptocurrency investments. According to the FactSet data, GLD has attracted $8.3 billion in net flows year to date, while BlackRock's IBIT pulled in $14.9 billion despite lower returns. The divergence comes as Bloomberg Intelligence suggests gold could continue outpacing Bitcoin, with analysts pointing to potential market reversions and risk-asset appreciation cycles that may favor traditional safe-haven assets over volatile cryptocurrencies. According to Bloomberg's research, gold's year-to-date gain of about 25% through April versus Bitcoin's roughly 10% decline could signal a trend reversal, with the U.S. stock market potentially reaching a valuation apex that favors precious metals over speculative digital assets. GLD's monthly performance shows the gold ETF declined 1.4% over the past month, along with quarterly gains of just over 6%, according to the FactSet data. The fund has assets under management of $101.9 billion and carries a 0.4% expense ratio. IBIT posted a 1.2% gain over the past month and a 27.7% gain over three months, according to FactSet. The fund has $74.7 billion in assets and charges a 0.25% expense ratio. The precious metals sector extends beyond gold, with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) posting a 23.9% year-to-date return that nearly matches gold's performance. According to FactSet data, BlackRock's silver ETF gained 7.7% over the past month and 5.2% over three months. SLV attracted $644.3 million in year-to-date flows and $636.5 million over the past month, according to FactSet. The fund has $17.5 billion in assets under management and a 0.5% expense ratio. Bloomberg Intelligence analysis suggests a shift away from risk assets and concerns about government spending could boost precious metals further. The research indicates cryptocurrencies may face pressure as markets reverse from recent peaks, with their high volatility working against them. Monthly flow data show gold funds continue attracting capital despite recent price volatility, with GLD pulling in $2.7 billion over the past month. IBIT maintained strong inflows of $3.2 billion during the same period, according to FactSet | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
17-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Gold trounced treasuries, dollar, but biggest precious metals bull market trade may be moving
Precious metals have been on a tear this year, with gold, silver and platinum all posting returns above 20%, as the alternative asset class that has long been an investor safe haven during times of market volatility. With gold recently hitting all-time highs, and silver reaching a price level on Tuesday that was its highest since 2011, and platinum up over 35% year-to-date, all have trounced the traditional U.S. financial system based safe-haven assets — treasuries and the U.S. dollar. What's taking place is a combination of the safe-haven trade occurring at the same time as concerns about the U.S. deficit and the de-dollarization wave among foreign central banks amid political shifts since President Trump's election and a global realignment of interests. Gold is up about 27% so far in 2025, "yet U.S. treasuries are kind of meandering around and it's not really providing the same safe haven experience that treasuries and the U.S. dollar traditionally played," said Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia on a recent edition of CNBC's ETF Edge. In some respects, gold's movement has aspects of the non-traditional, acting a little more like "digital gold" — i.e. bitcoin — with the safe-haven metal moving up alongside the cryptocurrency. If that's the case, Jan Van Eck, CEO of ETF and mutual fund company VanEck, says that gold has some catching up to do with its new rival. "Thirty-seven million Americans own exposure to gold," he said on "ETF Edge" alongside Ciampaglia. "Guess how many own exposures to bitcoin? 50 million Americans," he said, citing the results from one recent survey. "That makes a lot of sense to me, because people look at those as a store value. And over the last couple of years a lot of the appreciation has gone into bitcoin," Van Eck said. The S&P 500 posted two consecutive years of 25 percent-plus returns in 2023 and 2024. While the S&P is fighting to hold onto gains this year amid the sharp swings in the stock market, this is the second consecutive year gold is up 25 percent-plus. "Last year was a real unusual year where gold went up over 25%. We're already at that mark year-to-date," Ciampaglia said. One reason for continued momentum in the metal he cited is the fact that most of the buying in gold has been among foreign central banks diversifying away from U.S. government-linked assets that have long been safe havens. Now, Ciampaglia says, "people are starting to reallocate to gold, but it is still a very small number of the population." Year-to-date, the two biggest gold ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust, have taken in over $11 billion, according to data from among the top 25 ETFs for flows, with the SPDR Gold Shares' near $7 billion in assets No. 13 overall in the ETF industry. But he says investors should be looking as much, if not more, at silver and platinum, where thinks some of the next bigger moves may be centered among the precious metals boom. Even though platinum has posted stellar numbers this year, he called it and silver a "catch-up" trade that still has room to run, a view that was reflected in silver's trading chart on Tuesday, when it hit a level it has not seen since 2012. "For both those metals, they are just getting out of the starting block," Ciampaglia said on the ETF Edge podcast segment. "Think about the price of silver ... it was at $50 an ounce at its all-time high in 2011, so it is a long way off the all-time high." Silver was trading above $37 on Tuesday. The recent divergence between the price of gold and price of silver is another reason for investors to consider the relative opportunity, according to Ciampaglia. One common metric investors use to compare the trading opportunity is the price of an ounce of gold compared to the price of an ounce of silver, which has recently been as high as 100 to 1. It's come down in recent trading but not near its long-term average of 60 to 1, he said. That divergence will always exist, Ciampaglia said, because silver is not held by central banks to the extent of gold, and its "hybrid" use, which includes industrial applications, recently has been weighed down by the trade war and tariffs. But silver is an important metal due to its high conductivity across many different applications in electronics, renewable energy such as solar panels, and in health care equipment, he said. Even as the U.S. solar market goes over a cliff due to changes being contemplated in tax credits in the GOP tax bill, Ciampaglia said supply and demand in the global silver market has been in a deficit over the last few years and investors are "starting to wake up" to this imbalance. The single biggest driver of silver demand in the last few years has been the deployment of solar capacity, but even if the U.S. market pulls back, Ciampaglia said it has been China leading the way and leading to demand for silver given its conductivity benefits as a paste inside photovoltaic panels and ability to excite electrons. "We think somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% of global supply has been repurposed to fit that and China is really focused on all forms of energy," he said. He added that in a bull market for precious metals, gold will always be the first mover when financial fears become foremost for investors, but silver can "slingshot right by it," he said, and that is scenario he thinks could play out over the rest of the year. "Silver is the one starting to show much better strength technically, and we're starting to see shortages in market, and that can have a knock-on effect and investors finally allocate capital to the sector," he said. "We're seeing inflows to most silver ETFs and until recently that has been absent," he added. In fact, over the past three months, the iShares Silver Trust has taken in more than $1 billion from investors, according to ETF Action data. Platinum, Ciampaglia said, has been in a similar price dynamic to silver even with its big gains this year, "very depressed for a long time, but in the last few months it has broken out," he said. A persistent supply deficit, similar to silver, is part of the reason for platinum to get a new look from investors, especially when the price of gold runs up so much over a multi-year period, Ciampgalia said. When the price of gold becomes very lofty, and when the market sees signs of the gold buying frenzy in markets such as China where consumers are big buyers of gold jewelry, some substitution activity begins and people start buying platinum jewelry. The structural market deficit combined with the increase in demand has been responsible for the big move up in a short period of time for platinum, Ciampaglia said. Another trend in the global economy that supports platinum, he said, is the slowdown in EV adoption. Platinum is important for catalytic converters (so is palladium) and as the auto market dials down its pace of EV production, and the combustion engine and diesel are poised to be in the market for longer than many had forecast, there will be more demand for platinum and palladium as part of the equipment used to improve the quality of exhaust, Ciampaglia said. Disclaimer
