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AllAfrica
2 days ago
- Politics
- AllAfrica
Tokyo, Manila moves arouse Chinese concerns about Asian mini NATO
Manila's adoption of Japan's 'one theater concept' has further escalated tensions with China. Proposed in March this year, the concept breaks from Tokyo's traditional security outlook and views the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula as a 'single theater.' Analysts in Chinese news media were quick to read it as a formation of a Washington-led 'Mini NATO in the Asia-Pacific' aimed at 'containing China.' A commentary noted how President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s attempts at a thaw with Beijing in early 2025 were derailed within a week when the US promised $50 million in military aid that 'thoroughly exposed' Marcos's 'profiteering tendency.' Another analysis related the situation to the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed between Manila and Tokyo in July last year. Many defined the concept as an 'absurd' one that 'deliberately confuses' distinct geographical regions, solely to build a case for foreign intervention. The continued stationing of US military's advanced missile systems, Typhon and NMESIS, in Manila is similarly viewed as a way of targeting China. While Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr.'s moves are broadly described as 'unacceptable,' some in China believe he is still 'pragmatic' in finding common strategic ground with Japan when compared with Lithuania, which expressed concerns over the 'axis' formed by 'China, Russia and North Korea' that must be opposed through an 'alliance of democracies.' Others describe the concept as Japan's attempts to 'blur' the boundaries of the 'hot spots' by linking the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea to its 'surrounding areas,' hence using it as an 'excuse' to break free from restrictions placed by its peace constitution. Highlighting Manila's intentions of 'controlling the entire Bashi Channel,' some Chinese analysts have pointed to several hindrances in this 'plan' – particularly differing defense interests of the members of the informal SQUAD alliance (QUAD, with an S for 'security' added) and Trump's insistence that allies expand their military expenditures, which many, including Tokyo and Manila, are unable to do. Many also flagged Washington's 'unreliability' to its allies, particularly the imposition of tariffs that pushed Tokyo and Seoul towards Beijing. Describing Manila as a 'pawn' for 'big brothers,' a commentary noted that Washington's 'abandonment and looting' of war-torn Ukraine serve as a lesson for the Philippines. Some link the situation to the internal political turmoil brewing in Manila. Ruptures between the 'pro-US' Marcos family and the 'pro-China' Duterte family, particularly the latter's better performance in the mid-term elections and their possibility of sweeping off the former in the 2028 general elections, are emphasized. Chinese analysts believe that the concept will nevertheless receive little support from ASEAN nations or the Pacific Islands which have refrained from choosing sides between Beijing and Washington. Faultlines do exist. Many in Japan worry that an unclear delimitation of the theater carries the threat of embroiling Tokyo in conflicts of regional allies. South Korea, too, is unhappy, particularly with the concept seen as 'unnecessarily stoking conflict with China.' Differing security perceptions are similarly highlighted by Teodoro's statement that the Korean Peninsula will not form a part of Manila's adaptation. While most Chinese analysts favor dialogue, their confidence in the PLA's ability to launch a crushing defeat on the Philippines remains unabashed. The question, however, remains: Is China ready to take up arms? Though it cannot be denied that the concept's focus on Taiwan presents a fragile security situation given the Chinese maritime strategy's core being anti-access/area denial in the 'first island chain,' the few episodes of intense confrontation in the past years have not escalated into a war – yet. The PLA Southern Theater Command's response included a joint sea and air patrol in the 'second island command' with its advanced H-6K bombers equipped with Eagle Strike-12 anti-ship missiles, capable of launching an attack on targets as far as 4000 km from the Chinese mainland. While an intense move, it broadly falls in line with Beijing's previous response to Manila's unilateral and bilateral military exercises with Washington in January. Chinese commentators have also highlighted how NATO's short and narrowly-focused The Hague Summit Declaration's silence on China points to Trump 'changing his mind' on a conflict with Beijing. But mounting tensions are hard to overlook. China's latest white paper on national security noted 'gross interference' in the South China Sea issue from external powers. The paper clearly underscores a growing pessimism as it notes how 'Western anti-China forces' are 'leaving no stones unturned' to 'encircle, suppress and contain' Beijing. China's sanctions against former Senator Francis Tolentino for his 'malicious remarks and moves' are similarly seen as a strong move. This is the first time a senior official has been sanctioned since bilateral relations deteriorated in 2023, further elevating tensions as Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador to express its concerns. Despite the intensity, it must be noted that Beijing refrained from sanctioning Tolentino while he was in office, reflecting a cautious approach. Manila too has been prudent in not pushing the boundary too far. Hence, while the 38-year travel ban on Filipino officials traveling to Taiwan was lifted in April, restrictions remain on visits by the president and vice president and the foreign and defense secretaries. Despite its 2023 National Security Policy describing cross-strait relations as a 'major concern,' the Philippines has clarified it has no intentions of ever participating if a conflict erupts over Taiwan. The clarification came as part of a statement at a press conference for the Balikatan annual military exercises in April 2025, the largest between Manila and Washington. Manila favored reaching a provisional understanding with Beijing over invoking its Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington as tensions escalated in June last year. The situation, for now, can best be understood as a game of brinkmanship. Moreover, despite China's growing naval strength, its warships remain untested in warfare. While this acts as a deterrent to Beijing, China's advanced defense technologies and their ability to cause irreparable losses deter Washington and Manila. Nevertheless, a lack of a consistent high level military-to-military communication between both Beijing and Washington, and Beijing and Manila, as well as the complete absence of a reliable crisis management mechanism do exacerbate uncertainties. While all eyes remain fixed on military muscle flexing, the South China Sea faces a critical challenge. Sea levels have risen by 3.75mm per year since 1993, and microplastic pollution has reached an alarming level. While a war seems unlikely, peace remains elusive. Such pressing concerns urgently demand cooperation on all sides. Cherry Hitkari is a doctoral fellow with the Institute of Chinese Studies Delhi and the Harvard-Yenching Institute, currently pursuing a PhD in Chinese Studies at University of Delhi.
CBC
03-03-2025
- Health
- CBC
Lifelong Sudbury gay advocate honoured with King Charles III Coronation Medal
A gay Sudbury man who endured a homophobic upbringing, survived the AIDS crisis, and went on to become a champion of the Sudbury 2SLGBTQ+ community has been honoured for his service with the King Charles III Coronation Medal. Paul Pasanen is the founder and chair of SQUAD (Sudbury Queers United Around Diversity), which creates safe spaces for the local community. He is also a program coordinator with Réseau ACCESS Network and the previous coordinator of the New Horizons for 2S-LGBTQ+ Older Adults program. Pasanen has been working to bring a queer community centre to Sudbury, modelled on the 519 in Toronto. The King Charles III Coronation Medal honours Canadians who have demonstrated exceptional dedication to their community and service to their country, said Sudbury Member of Parliament Viviane Lapointe, who presented it to Pasanen. "Paul Pasanen embodies these exact qualities," she said in a statement emailed to CBC. "Paul's advocacy for and commitment to inclusion and diversity is unprecedented. As one of the organizers of Sudbury's first pride marches, Paul has a longstanding history of being a true champion for inclusion and ensuring everyone feels safe and valued in our community." Pasanen's advocacy work grew out of his experiences growing up in rural northern Ontario, he told CBC. Surviving the AIDS crisis Born in the era when homosexuality was still classified as a mental illness, he grew up surrounded by homophobia. He moved to Ottawa as a young adult and immersed himself in the city's gay community, only to begin losing friends en masse to the mysterious illness that would later be identified as AIDS. "I expected to die," he said. "I really did. …. So I came back to Sudbury in my 20s to prepare for the end." He was flabbergasted to learn that it may not arrive as quickly as anticipated. "I went and got the test just to confirm my belief, and it was negative," he said. "That was a shock. I did not have a Plan B. I did not know what I was going to do with my life." His response was to get sober and throw himself into community work. Despite the ignorance and homophobia Pasanen witnessed growing up, he had never seen an anti-gay or anti-trans protest in Sudbury until recently, he said. He called the rising transphobic hatred across the country "horrifying." "When we were advocating for same-sex marriage, people would say, 'Oh yeah, what's next? [Are] you going to marry your pets?'" he said. Nowadays,he added, opponents of rights for gender diverse people make up stories about young people and schools providing bathroom litter boxes for people who identify as cats. When people move the conversation away from actual human experience, it makes it easier to shut it down and prevent people from learning about people's actual lives, he said. Towards a 2SLGBTQ+ centre in Sudbury? He added, the rise in hate has brought a renewed sense of urgency to his work to establish a community centre. "Urgency, desperation, fear," he said. "It's re-traumatizing to see that kind of backlash that's been building for decades…. And now it's getting permission to come forward and be more visible. …And what's been really great is that the queer community, all the individuals and small groups, have come out to counter protest, which is heartening." But Sudbury's 2SLGBTQ+ community is also divided internally, particularly along generational lines, Pasanen said, and education is needed to help bring people together. Older people were raised with rigid ideas about gender roles and sexual orientation categories, he said. Younger people have a more fluid understanding of those concepts. There is also conflict over the community's relationship with law enforcement. In an email to CBC, the chair of Fierté Sudbury Pride, Aspen Groom, expressed the organization's support for a community centre. It's a concept that has support from city hall in Greater Sudbury. In an e-mail to CBC, Ken Bonder from the office of Greater Sudbury Mayor, Paul Lefebvre, said: "the Mayor has had preliminary discussions with Paul Pasanen, chair of SQUAD, along with other members of the 2SLGBTQ+ community regarding their desire to have a joint office space in Greater Sudbury. The Mayor continues to be an ally and supports initiatives that promote inclusivity and belonging." But Groom said Fierté Sudbury Pride is no longer formally involved in a coalition with SQUAD. "In the spring of last year, the previous board of directors organized multiple Pride events in collaboration with police, which led to significant community backlash," they explained. "As a result, eight of the nine board members resigned. Many of those former board members remain actively involved with Hauz Noir and SQUAD. … Given this history, we have been cautious in our engagement with the coalition following their departure." The group continues to attend coalition meetings anticipating that members will establish clear terms of reference and behavioral guidelines, Groom said. It recognizes that the work of creating accountable spaces is complex and remains committed to approaching it with care. For Pasanen's part, he said, he tries to navigate the differences between community members with kindness and understanding. "I'm a senior now, and I think there's things that we can learn from, for example, Anishinaabe Indigenous teachings and and traditions," he said. "You know, that revered two-spirited people and revered elders. … Having a balanced community where there are elders and young people and parents and children – I think that's a natural way to be. And that's … what I envision … being able to invite people and bring people together."
