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Yahoo
28-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A Look At The Fair Value Of Straumann Holding AG (VTX:STMN)
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Straumann Holding fair value estimate is CHF87.37 Straumann Holding's CHF105 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate The CHF126 analyst price target for STMN is 44% more than our estimate of fair value Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Straumann Holding AG (VTX:STMN) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex. We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (CHF, Millions) CHF478.9m CHF540.7m CHF598.3m CHF534.4m CHF592.6m CHF600.1m CHF606.1m CHF611.1m CHF615.5m CHF619.3m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x8 Analyst x9 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 1.26% Est @ 1.01% Est @ 0.83% Est @ 0.71% Est @ 0.62% Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 4.6% CHF458 CHF494 CHF522 CHF446 CHF473 CHF457 CHF442 CHF426 CHF410 CHF394 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF4.5b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 4.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CHF619m× (1 + 0.4%) ÷ (4.6%– 0.4%) = CHF15b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF15b÷ ( 1 + 4.6%)10= CHF9.4b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CHF105, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Straumann Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.971. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Straumann Holding Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Medical Equipment industry. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Medical Equipment market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market. Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio. Threat Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Straumann Holding, we've put together three fundamental factors you should consider: Financial Health: Does STMN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does STMN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SWX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. — Investing narratives with Fair Values A case for TSXV:USA to reach USD $5.00 - $9.00 (CAD $7.30–$12.29) by 2029. By Agricola – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: CA$12.29 · 0.9% Overvalued DLocal's Future Growth Fueled by 35% Revenue and Profit Margin Boosts By WynnLevi – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: $195.39 · 0.9% Overvalued Historically Cheap, but the Margin of Safety Is Still Thin By Mandelman – Community Contributor Fair Value Estimated: SEK232.58 · 0.1% Overvalued View more featured narratives — Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Should You Think About Buying Straumann Holding AG (VTX:STMN) Now?
Straumann Holding AG (VTX:STMN) saw a decent share price growth of 18% on the SWX over the last few months. The recent rally in share prices has nudged the company in the right direction, though it still falls short of its yearly peak. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let's examine Straumann Holding's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity. Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit. Straumann Holding appears to be overvalued by 23% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at CHF108 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of CHF87.27. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Straumann Holding's share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market. See our latest analysis for Straumann Holding Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 55% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Straumann Holding. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation. Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in STMN's positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe STMN should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed. Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on STMN for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there's no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for STMN, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop. Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. At Simply Wall St, we have the analysts estimates which you can view by clicking here. If you are no longer interested in Straumann Holding, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
