Latest news with #SallyAuld
Business Times
08-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Australian business activity rebounds in June: survey
[SYDNEY] Australian business activity rebounded sharply in June as firms reported rising sales and profitability, a survey showed on Tuesday, offering hope demand was finally benefiting from lower borrowing costs and cooling inflation. National Australia Bank's survey showed its index of business conditions climbed to +9 in June, from zero in May, topping the long average of around +6. Its confidence index also increased 3 points to +5, for the third month of gains. 'While we wouldn't overplay monthly moves, the uptick in trend conditions is welcome given the softening trend through early 2025,' said NAB's chief economist, Sally Auld. 'An improvement in confidence is also welcome, given the raft of negative headlines globally over recent months.' The survey's measure of business sales jumped 10 points to +15, while profitability rose 9 points to +4 and employment gained 2 points to +3. By sector, manufacturing and retail saw the largest increases following large falls in May. The improvement in retail is welcome as consumer demand has struggled all year despite two cuts in interest rates and a slowdown in inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to again cut rates by a quarter point, to 3.60 per cent. Markets are wagering on further easing to 3.10 per cent or lower, since core inflation has dropped to the middle of the RBA's target band of 2 per cent to 3 per cent. NAB's survey showed growth in retail prices had slowed to a quarterly pace of 0.6 per cent in June, the lowest since early 2023, even as purchase costs stayed up at 1.5 per cent, pointing to some pressure on margins. REUTERS
Reuters
08-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Australian business activity rebounds in June, survey finds
SYDNEY, July 8 (Reuters) - Australian business activity rebounded sharply in June as firms reported rising sales and profitability, a survey showed on Tuesday, offering hope demand was finally benefiting from lower borrowing costs and cooling inflation. National Australia Bank's survey showed its index of business conditions climbed to +9 in June, from zero in May, topping the long average of around +6. Its confidence index also increased 3 points to +5, for the third month of gains. "While we wouldn't overplay monthly moves, the uptick in trend conditions is welcome given the softening trend through early 2025," said NAB's chief economist, Sally Auld. "An improvement in confidence is also welcome, given the raft of negative headlines globally over recent months." The survey's measure of business sales jumped 10 points to +15, while profitability rose 9 points to +4 and employment gained 2 points to +3. By sector, manufacturing and retail saw the largest increases following large falls in May. The improvement in retail is welcome as consumer demand has struggled all year despite two cuts in interest rates and a slowdown in inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to again cut rates by a quarter point, to 3.60%. Markets are wagering on further easing to 3.10% or lower, since core inflation has dropped to the middle of the RBA's target band of 2% to 3%. NAB's survey showed growth in retail prices had slowed to a quarterly pace of 0.6% in June, the lowest since early 2023, even as purchase costs stayed up at 1.5%, pointing to some pressure on margins.
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Australian business activity rebounds in June, survey finds
SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian business activity rebounded sharply in June as firms reported rising sales and profitability, a survey showed on Tuesday, offering hope demand was finally benefiting from lower borrowing costs and cooling inflation. National Australia Bank's survey showed its index of business conditions climbed to +9 in June, from zero in May, topping the long average of around +6. Its confidence index also increased 3 points to +5, for the third month of gains. "While we wouldn't overplay monthly moves, the uptick in trend conditions is welcome given the softening trend through early 2025," said NAB's chief economist, Sally Auld. "An improvement in confidence is also welcome, given the raft of negative headlines globally over recent months." The survey's measure of business sales jumped 10 points to +15, while profitability rose 9 points to +4 and employment gained 2 points to +3. By sector, manufacturing and retail saw the largest increases following large falls in May. The improvement in retail is welcome as consumer demand has struggled all year despite two cuts in interest rates and a slowdown in inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to again cut rates by a quarter point, to 3.60%. Markets are wagering on further easing to 3.10% or lower, since core inflation has dropped to the middle of the RBA's target band of 2% to 3%. NAB's survey showed growth in retail prices had slowed to a quarterly pace of 0.6% in June, the lowest since early 2023, even as purchase costs stayed up at 1.5%, pointing to some pressure on margins.
West Australian
01-07-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Australian online retail sales lift in May as consumers spend $63b in past year
Australian online retail sales grew again May — albeit slower — as consumers spent up on fashion, games and toys. The 0.7 per cent May lift compared with the 1.1 per cent April increase, according to new National Australia Bank figures on Tuesday. The bank's data estimates Australians spent just over $63 billion on retail goods online in the 12 months to May. Growth was recorded for most categories, except for homewares, appliances and takeaway food. Fashion, games and toys rebounded in May to lead the growth. Across the country, the Northern Territory posted the biggest growth, up 4.9 per cent, followed by Victoria, up 1.9 per cent. WA and Tasmania posted the biggest declines, both dropping 0.3 per cent. NAB chief economist Sally Auld said the deceleration in online sales in May followed a fairly strong April. 'Along with the rebound in spend on fashion in May, there was continued strength in grocery and liquor spend for the two largest sales States, NSW and Victoria,' she said. 'This seems particularly strong for Victoria, which over the past year has led the major sales States for this category.' The NAB data comes a day before the Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release retail sales figures for May. Following a 0.1 per cent fall in retail turnover in April, ANZ economists expect a 0.2 per cent lift in May. Australian retailers have experienced a subdued start to the year, despite falling inflation and interest rate cuts boosting disposable incomes. The Reserve Bank's 0.25 basis-point reduction in the cash rate in May was the second round of relief following 13 hikes since it began lifting rates in 2022. The cash rate now sits at 3.85 per cent. Slower-than-expected inflation figures last week have bolstered the case for the RBA to cut interest rates again when it next meets on July 7-8. Consumer sentiment was hit by global uncertainty stemming from Donald Trump's threatened trade war, and though tensions are easing, confidence remains muted.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Shock to ‘force' RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: 'More aggressive'
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be pushed to take a 'more aggressive' rate-cutting approach following the conflict in the Middle East and the potential oil price shock. Some analysts now expect the central bank could cut interest rates a further three times this year. KPMG has estimated the conflict in the Middle East could shave between 0.15 and 0.20 per cent of the GDP from the Australian economy this year, should the world oil market react in a similar way to how it responded to the first Iraq War. It said an 'oil shock' combined with the continuing threat of a global tariff fallout could 'force' the RBA's hand. 'The longer an oil price shock is sustained, the worse its impact is in terms of inflation outcomes, inflation expectations and short-term growth,' KPMG said. RELATED Superannuation warning after $25 billion ASX bloodbath as US-Iran tensions escalate Young Aussie reveals $390,000 property regret after falling into common trap Centrelink payment alert for 58,000 Aussies in caravans 'This is because oil price shocks can be particularly damaging to an economy like Australia's as the road transport sector — one of the heaviest users of oil in our economy — touches every single other sector (including itself) across the country.' Global oil prices slid 7.2 per cent on Monday following Iran's retaliatory missile strike on a US airbase. The Brent crude price fell to around $US70 a barrel. This has eased fears of major supply disruptions, but markets remain cautious as tensions continue. KPMG said it had revised down its RBA cash rate forecasts and now expects a further three rate cuts this year, one more than its original expectation at the start of 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year. It expects the RBA to 'look through' any short-term inflationary impact of any oil shock and noted this would be combined with core inflation now looking well entrenched in the target band and overall weakness in the Australian economy. If the RBA cuts interest rates three times, homeowners could see their repayments drop by $265 a month. That's based on someone with an average $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining. Markets have an 86 per cent expectation of an interest rate change at the next RBA meeting in July and are almost fully priced in for three more reductions by the end of the year. NAB is the only Big Four bank predicting an interest rate cut next month, with ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac expecting a cut in August. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the RBA would be more focused on inflation than the oil price. 'Only a very large shift in oil prices would dislodge its view of the inflation trajectory beyond the short term,' she told The Australian Financial Review. NAB chief economist Sally Auld said the RBA was likely to be more worried about the growth consequences of higher oil prices than the inflationary consequences. Petrol prices make up 3.35 per cent of the Consumer Price Index. All eyes will be on the monthly Consumer Price Index data released tomorrow. Commonwealth Bank analysts expect the upcoming inflation data to show annual inflation has eased to 2.3 per cent in May. While it has not changed its base case for the next cut to be in August, it said July remains 'live'.
