Latest news with #SameerSamana
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market Rotation Puts Shine on S&P 500 Losers as Winners Trail
(Bloomberg) -- A noticeable shift has been reshaping US equities in the month of July: Some of the biggest laggards from the first half are now outperforming, while the year's early winners are falling out of favor. Singer Akon's Failed Futuristic City in Senegal Ends Up a $1 Billion Resort Are Tourists Ruining Europe? How Locals Are Pushing Back Can Americans Just Stop Building New Highways? Why Did Cars Get So Hard to See Out Of? Denver City Hall Takes a Page From NASA Investors are taking profits and pivoting into underperforming sectors, fueling a reversal that's turned energy — one of the biggest losers in the S&P 500 Index in the first six months of the year — into July's top gainer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, communication services has swung from second-best gainer in the first half to the worst performer this month. 'At a high level, we would say some of the themes have gone a bit too far, namely AI, US dollar weakness, fall in long rates and expectations for rate cuts,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 'It seems like we're on the cusp of at least some profit-taking, but could turn into a full reversal.' Stretched valuations are partly to blame for the rotation. Industrials, the biggest winner in the first half of the year that's trailing sectors like energy and materials in July, has a price-to-earnings multiple that sits in the top-second percentile of observations going back 20 years ago relative to that of the S&P 500, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. show. Contrastingly, the valuation multiple of the energy group — the S&P 500's top performer this month — is hovering near the bottom-third percentile of readings relative to the S&P 500. 'Valuations are elevated across most industries in the sector and our model suggests it has the lowest odds of substantial outperformance during the next six months,' Goldman's analysts wrote in a note published Wednesday. Unpredictability has been a theme for US equities since the beginning of the year. Events from China's DeepSeek to President Donald Trump's shifting trade agenda weighed on the S&P 500, but it managed to stage a comeback toward the tail end of the first half, closing in on a fresh record high. After a strong three-month run, BCA Research's Irene Tunkel said it made sense for investors to 'lock in' gains ahead of the summer break. 'At the same time, the economic backdrop remains resilient, and investors are growing more comfortable rotating into cheaper, more economically sensitive areas of the market, such as energy, materials, and transportation,' Tunkel added. 'The tax cuts embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also provide support to the consumer and industrial sectors.' The Russell 1000 Index has seen a clear rotation out of first-half winners into the biggest losers, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The 20 worst-performing stocks over the first half have since gained 5.4% month-to-date through July 8, while the 20 best-performing names over the same period have fallen 2.1%. 'There has been some modest reversion of leadership,' said Todd Sohn, senior ETF strategist at Strategas Securities, adding traditional defensive sectors such as consumer staples and even insurers were 'deteriorating on a relative basis.' Will Trade War Make South India the Next Manufacturing Hub? Trump's Cuts Are Making Federal Data Disappear 'Our Goal Is to Get Their Money': Inside a Firm Charged With Scamming Writers for Millions 'Telecom Is the New Tequila': Behind the Celebrity Wireless Boom For Brazil's Criminals, Coffee Beans Are the Target ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
07-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana: Risk factors could still weigh on earnings
Sameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss market outlooks, how much demand could deteriorate due to tariffs, and more.
Yahoo
23-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
S&P 500 may be up in June, but Iran attacks and tariff fears are good reasons to rethink risk
Tariffs and the widening Middle East conflict are casting clouds over the stock market's June gains, with a potentially turbulent summer ahead after the S&P 500's recent push toward its record high. 'We're entering the greater-fool phase,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, in a phone interview with MarketWatch. 'What we're telling investors is, 'Look, don't play that game,' ' he said — explaining that, with the U.S. stock market getting back toward all-time highs, 'you're not getting paid to take the risk until maybe later this year.' My sister and her husband died within days of each other. Their banks won't let me access their safe-deposit boxes. What now? The U.S. bull market is intact — and a key signal is coming from Tel Aviv, says this strategist Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make. 'I'm at my wit's end': My niece paid off her husband's credit card but fell behind on her taxes. How can I help her? 'I'm 49 and have no debt except for a mortgage': Should I take a $61,000 lump sum or $355 a month for life? The S&P 500 SPX closed modestly lower Friday but remained up 0.9% so far in June after a strong recovery in May from the lows following President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' tariff reveal in early April, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index ended the trading session 2.9% below its record closing high, notched Feb. 19. The U.S. stock market appears vulnerable to pullbacks partly because of still uncertain tariff policy, with the White House's pause on certain levies due to expire in July. On top of that lingering worry, rising tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge heading into the weekend as Trump publicly weighed a strike on Iran. On Saturday night Trump announced that the U.S. had launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, working with Israel in what Trump called a 'spectacular military success.' Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine, an Air Force general, observed early Sunday at a Pentagon press briefing that damage assessments were ongoing. Worries over the potential for a broadening of the Israel-Iran conflict helped put geopolitical tensions high on the list of risks faced by the stock market, according to Samana. Any 'illusion of containment' was shattered late Saturday, Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, observed in a note. In Samana's view, the situation in the Middle East poses the threat of a 'dual shock' from a potential further spike in oil prices that fuels higher inflation but also risks pushing down the rate of economic growth. U.S. oil prices CL00 have jumped in June to around $74 a barrel on Friday, FactSet data show. 'The Fed probably doesn't need one more thing that's stagflationary, because they've got enough to kind of work through now with tariffs,' said Samana. The Federal Reserve has said tariffs risk increasing inflation and weighing on economic activity, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating those concerns on Wednesday after the central bank wrapped up its latest policy meeting. Fed governor Chris Waller, though, marked out a different perspective in a cable-news interview on Friday, saying that the higher prices paid for imported goods under Trump's tariffs were not likely to cause any long-term surge in inflation and suggesting that the central bank should resume lowering rates as soon as next month. Last week's FOMC vote to stand pat on interest rates was unanimous. Waller is viewed as a candidate to replace Powell, whose term Trump has signaled clearly he would not renew. Don't miss: As Trump badgers Fed to lower rates, it's the bond market in need of convincing The Fed also released its latest Summary of Economic Projections, which showed Fed officials have forecast that real gross domestic product growth in the U.S. could slow this year to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% and measures of inflation may climb. For example, the projections showed core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, may rise this year to 3.1% based on data from the personal-consumption expenditures, an inflation index favored by the Fed. That all adds up to 'stagflationary flavor,' said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in a phone interview. The projections suggest that 'the Fed is still of this mindset' that the economy may see 'a stagflationary impulse from tariff policy' in 2025, he said. In the coming week, investors will get a fresh reading on Fed-favored core PCE for May. The U.S. economic calendar for the coming week will also include a revised estimate of first-quarter GDP, flash readings on U.S. services and manufacturing activity in June, and a gauge of consumer confidence for this month. Also, investors will be listening closely to Powell's testimony before the U.S. House Financial Service Committee on Tuesday, when he will deliver a semiannual monetary-policy report to Congress. The Fed decided on June 18 to maintain its policy interest rate at the targeted range of 4.25% to 4.5%, as Wall Street expected — citing a low unemployment rate, 'somewhat elevated' inflation and economic activity that still appeared to be expanding at a 'solid pace.' Major U.S. stock benchmarks are mostly up in 2025, after rebounding from a tumultuous April that had been sparked off by Trump's 'liberation day.' But high volatility, coupled with small gains, has weighed on the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns this year, according to David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. 'Elevated trade-policy uncertainty has been the main driver of poor risk-adjusted performance, leading to below-average returns and above-average volatility,' Kostin said in a research note Friday morning. 'The S&P 500's risk-adjusted return has been lower than usual so far this year.' The S&P 500 has yielded an 'annualized risk-adjusted return ratio of 0.1, well below the median annual reading since 1990 of 1.0,' Kostin said. The S&P 500 ended Friday with a year-to-date gain of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index VIX, a gauge of investor anxiety in the stock market, rose 2.4% on Friday to 20.62, according to FactSet data. But that's well below the levels seen in April, before the gauge dropped after Trump pressed pause on tariffs and his administration began to pursue bilateral trade deals. On the global trade front, Trump's initial 90-day pause on the so-called reciprocal tariffs on most countries expires on July 9. Additionally, the White House's 90-day pause on levies targeting China, in particular, will expire on Aug. 12, according to a Wednesday note from Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The U.S. and China have a 'framework agreement, but the clock is ticking to achieve a comprehensive deal,' said Wren. He also warned that fiscal concerns in the U.S. are among a pile of risks that potentially could contribute to bigger-than-usual swings in the market. 'Don't forget that the budget bills in the House and Senate appear to call for large future deficits and [that Congress] must increase the debt ceiling by late July or early August,' Wren wrote. 'Otherwise, the U.S. Treasury might run low on cash to the point that it needs to postpone payments starting in early August.' The U.S. stock market mostly fell Friday — with the S&P 500 declining 0.2%, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP dropping 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA edging up 0.1%. For the week, the Dow was nearly flat, while the Nasdaq booked a 0.2% weekly gain and the S&P 500 saw a modest weekly retreat of 0.2%. Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a year-end target of 6,000 for the S&P 500, according to Samana. That's just above the index's closing level Friday of 5,967.84. Now is not the time to 'take on a bunch of risk,' said Samana. 'The risk-reward just isn't all that favorable anymore.' How can I buy my niece a home in her name only — without alienating or upsetting her husband? Israel-Iran conflict poses three challenges for stocks that could slam market by up to 20%, warns RBC My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? 'He doesn't seem to care': My secretive father, 81, added my name to a bank account. What about my mom? Tech companies lead list of double-digit gains in June for stocks in the S&P 500 Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
AU Financial Review
18-06-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
ASX to open lower; Fed holds as Wall St rises
The ASX is set to open down but US stocks gained as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected. Fed officials see inflation worsening but still expect to make two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. They underscored that they are holding off from any changes to the key rate because of the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the tariffs and economic outlook. 'We're close to the all-time highs with a tremendous amount of event risk over the summer,' said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. 'For most investors, now would be a good time to rebalance and get ready for additional event-related volatility over the summer.' Market highlights ASX futures are pointing down 20 points or -0.2 per cent to 8513 All US prices are as of 1.30pm New York time. Thursday's agenda Australia's unemployment figures come out at 11.30am. New Zealand issues GDP data at 8.45am. Wall Street will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the UK, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.25%. Top stories 'We've got a mandate': Chalmers doubles down on $3m super tax | The treasurer said tax reform discussions were about the government looking for new ideas, not reversing course on its controversial super tax. Tax reform 'crucial' to budget sustainability: Chalmers | In a National Press Club address the treasurer has flagged tax changes and said Labor's election commitments were the 'foundation not a destination'. | The alert on April 8 – days after tariff fears sent Wall Street plunging – shows the pressure on super funds as they manage an unpredictable White House. The corporate regulator announced an inquiry into the sharemarket operator after a series of missteps including a disastrous settlement outage in December.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Costco's Gold Bars Are So Popular, There's a Limit on How Many You Can Buy — Should You Invest?
With gold having tipped a recent record high price of just over $3,500 per troy ounce (31.1 grams) on April 22, interest from investors — both individual and institutional — has been piqued. Costco has been a major player in the physical bullion game for most casual investors. In early 2024, CNBC reported that Wells Fargo projected Costco was selling an estimated $200 million worth of gold bars and coins on a monthly basis. Read Next: Check Out: And now Costco is tightening its restrictions on how many gold bars its customers can purchase. Read on for more details, as well as whether you should invest. In response to the dramatically increased demand, as a May 23 Money report indicated, Costco began tightening restrictions around how many gold bars could be purchased. Customers can buy two 1-ounce gold bars per transaction, as they could previously. However, they are now restricted to just one transaction in a 24-hour period. Costco has quite a few gold options on its website, including coins and bars. Most options are around $3,500 as of June 16. It's clear there's a demand for gold, as Costco's new restriction shows. However, the question remains: Are physical gold bars, or bullion, worth buying as an investment? Learn More: In April, Sameer Samana — head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute — expressed some degree of hesitation about buying into physical gold at that time (prior to it hitting its record high), CNBC reported. 'We're probably close to maximum optimism on gold at this point,' Samana said. 'It's so overbought. Buying gold right now, you're coming a little late to the party. It doesn't mean it's over, but you're not early.' Samana suggested a gold bullion-backed ETF rather than the purchase of physical bars or coins. However, in May, Goldman Sachs Research commodities strategies Lina Thomas provided an exhaustive breakout of gold's past, current and future performance. She gestured toward the notion that traders often buy gold when confronted with macroeconomic uncertainty, and further that central banks were also buying large quantities of the yellow metal. 'The long-run bull story for gold is that central banks are buying large amounts of it. We expect that to continue for at least another three years,' Thomas said, adding that Goldman Sachs predicts gold to hit $3,700 per troy ounce as 2025 draws to a close. 'While the key factor since 2022 used to be central bank buying alone, ETF investors are now joining the gold rally. As both compete for the same bullion, we are expecting gold prices to rise even further,' she added. No matter where you buy your gold from, such a pricey buy should be made through reputable dealers, according to Brett Elliott, director of content at APMEX. Elliott was also bullish over gold's performance prospects in 2025, according to CBS News. 'The most important decision you'll make is where to buy from,' Elliott said. 'Choose a reputable dealer, preferably one that has been in business for some time with good reviews and will also buy back from you when you're ready to sell.' More From GOBankingRates How Far $750K Plus Social Security Goes in Retirement in Every US Region This article originally appeared on Costco's Gold Bars Are So Popular, There's a Limit on How Many You Can Buy — Should You Invest?
