Latest news with #Samsara
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Mixing Applied Science with Unusual Options to Target an Opportunity in Samsara (IOT)
Here's a dirty little secret about unusual options screeners: every day, you're going to find securities that trigger the algorithm due to their aberrant transactions relative to prior trends. But that doesn't mean that every single idea on the list is worth a hoot. You got to find a way to mathematically pinpoint probabilistically enticing trades. Otherwise, you're going to be chasing noise. For those who are looking for an empirically compelling idea, Samsara (IOT) should be on your radar. In my column 'The Saturday Spread,' I mentioned that the fleet management and safety platform provider — which is one of the leaders in applied artificial intelligence — may have a realistic chance of moving higher due to a rare quantitative signal. More News from Barchart Option Volatility And Earnings Report For July 21 - 25 How to Make a 3.0% One-Month Yield By Shorting UBER Puts What Gamma Exposure is Saying About Alphabet Stock Ahead of Earnings Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! We'll get to that point later. More recently, IOT stock was one of the highlights in Barchart's Unusual Stock Options Volume screener. On Friday, total options volume hit 9,562 contracts, representing a lift of 52.12% over the trailing one-month average. Call volume reached 8,531 contracts, with put volume down at 1,031 contracts, yielding a put/call ratio of 0.12. On the surface, this ratio seems bullish, implying that more trades are engaging calls than puts. However, options flow — which focuses exclusively on big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors — showed that net trade sentiment on the day slipped to $131,200 below parity, thus favoring the bears. Most of the calls? They were sold calls, otherwise known as credit-based transactions. In other words, traders were underwriting the risk that IOT stock would not rise to the profitability threshold, which is around $44.20 with an expiration date of Sep. 19, 2025. While the options flow data might seem discouraging at first, as adventurous speculators, we can still aim for profitability below the aforementioned implied ceiling. Using Math to Formulate a Strategy for IOT Stock In any real analysis, the study must disclose a null hypothesis. Regarding the equities sector, the null hypothesis is the assumption that there is no mispricing. In other words, whether you read this article on IOT stock or not, your performance will not deviate from expected norms. Therefore, our job as analysts is to reject the null — that is, present an investment or trading idea that has a higher-than-random chance of generating alpha. In this case, I have defined my null hypothesis as the baseline probability of IOT stock rising over a one-week period, which is 52.66% (from January 2019 onward). So, my alternative hypothesis must reliably beat this performance stat; otherwise, there would be absolutely no point in writing this article. Luckily, I'm not in the business of wasting my own time. To deliver an empirical, falsifiable signal, though, I cannot use the continuous scalar signal of the stock price. Instead, I prefer to compress (discretize) price action into market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. Through this approach, I'm able to analyze root demand — at the end of the session, was the market a net buyer or net seller? By conducting the above exercise across rolling 10-week intervals, I was able to categorize Samsara's demand profile as below: L10 Category Sample Size Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 2 50.00% 52.41% 5.32% 3-7-D 11 54.55% 52.41% 7.00% 3-7-U 2 0.00% 52.41% N/A 4-6-D 23 65.22% 52.41% 6.21% 4-6-U 5 80.00% 52.41% 11.61% 5-5-D 26 61.54% 52.41% 6.37% 5-5-U 20 60.00% 52.41% 4.27% 6-4-D 11 45.45% 52.41% 7.11% 6-4-U 42 42.86% 52.41% 5.19% 7-3-D 1 0.00% 52.41% N/A 7-3-U 19 57.89% 52.41% 6.08% 8-2-U 4 25.00% 52.41% 19.07% 9-1-U 1 0.00% 52.41% N/A In the past two months, IOT stock flashed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Ordinarily, with the balance of distributive sessions outweighing accumulative, you would expect the bears to dominate proceedings. However, the 4-6-D historically represents a sentiment reversal. In 65.22% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 6.21%. Should the bulls maintain control for a second week, the median performance is an additional 3.75%. Theoretically, with IOT stock closing at $39.24, it could be poised to exceed the $43 level over the next few weeks. Interestingly, last week, IOT also flashed the 4-6-D sequence and from Friday, the trailing five-day performance was 5.03%. It's possible, then, that there could be something cooking here. Taking What the Market Will Give Us At this moment, arguably the most tempting idea is the 40/41 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This transaction involves buying the $40 call and simultaneously selling the $41 call, for a net debit paid of $50 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should IOT stock rise through the short strike price ($41) at expiration, the maximum reward is also $50, a 100% payout. Now, the question may be, how trustworthy is the 4-6-D sequence? With the market being an open system, anything can happen, which adds complexity to any transaction. However, running a one-tailed binomial test, the aforementioned sequence generates a p-value of 0.1594. Colloquially, this means that there's an 84.06% confidence level that the signal is not merely noise. To be sure, 84.06% would not be considered statistically significant, with science requiring a threshold of 95%. But science deals with closed systems, not open ones like the equities arena. In context, I would argue that the 4-6-D sequence is empirically intriguing. With the high payout and low debit required, it might be worth consideration. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jim Cramer Considers KKR & Co 'Absolutely Terrific'
KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) is one of the 14 stocks Jim Cramer recently looked at. The company received a comment from Cramer during the episode, as he said, 'I also like KKR. I think KKR is absolutely terrific.' A modern looking financial adviser sitting in front of a trading monitor, gesturing to a group of investors. KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) is an investment company that deploys capital across private equity, real estate, credit, and infrastructure. It targets a wide range of industries and asset classes through majority and minority stakes. Additionally, Cramer was bullish on the stock at the beginning of the year, as he commented during a January episode: 'I am gonna say that I like the stock very much and I think those guys are so smart. I would be a buyer… At one point it was down really big today. That made no sense to me whatsoever.' Furthermore, Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund stated the following regarding KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR) in its Q1 2025 investor letter: 'Our second largest addition in the quarter was to the alternative asset manager, KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE:KKR). Similarly to Samsara, we took advantage of the volatility in the stock market to add to this great business. While investors are concerned about the potential near-term slowdown in realizations, capital markets activity, and carry (performance fees), we remain focused on the long term. Various secular tailwinds that benefited KKR thus far continue – this includes the growing allocation to alternatives, its diversified asset class exposure, its successful track record of performance, and its significant exposure to the growth of private credit through its ownership of Global Atlantic, which has a differentiated positioning thanks to the structural match in duration between the asset side and the liability side.' While we acknowledge the potential of KKR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Geek Dad
02-07-2025
- Entertainment
- Geek Dad
Review – Resurrection Man: Quantum Karma #4
Resurrection Man: Quantum Karma #4 cover, via DC Comics. Ray: Ram V continues to take us deeper into the mystical side of the DCU than any other writer has in a long time. Mitch Shelley has completed his latest evolution as Resurrection Man, dying peacefully of old age – and as such, has evolved to be immune and above time itself. Now in the company of a mysterious cosmic being named Samsara, he has gained full awareness of his countless past lives. This allows him to discover his past – which casts new doubt on his original simple origin from the 1990s, and gives him ties to one of the DCU's greatest villains and his original crime that kicked off his reign. But it also opens his eyes to the ultimate betrayal he committed – turning on a woman who was the closest he had felt in centuries to a true love, and sabotaging her creation that could jeopardize the world. And it's exactly that creation that now comes into focus, as the truth behind Samsara's presence is revealed. The warriors. Via DC Comics. It's interesting that the main villain of the series so far – or so it seemed – doesn't really play a role in this issue, but a much bigger threat emerges. That keeps in touch with the non-linear nature of this story, which makes it feel unlike any other Black Label book. How often do you see a book that takes place not just over centuries but over millennia? As we head into the last act, it's clear that the true enemy Mitch Shelley is facing here is himself, or rather the parts of himself he had locked up for eons. And in that time, he's managed to accumulate many enemies – including some that he might need again now. The guest appearance at the end of the issue is fascinating, especially given that we last saw him in a very different Black Label series. This is quickly becoming one of my favorite DC works of Ram V, and is a similarly bold reinvention of the character as his take on Swamp Thing from a few years back. To find reviews of all the DC issues, visit DC This Week. Liked it? Take a second to support GeekDad and GeekMom on Patreon!
Business Wire
02-07-2025
- Automotive
- Business Wire
Cappagh Browne Cuts Dangerous Driving Behaviours by 95% in Just One Week with Samsara
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Leading wastewater services company Cappagh Browne, which serves more than 1.5 million customers on behalf of Southern Water, has reduced dangerous driving by 95% in just one week following targeted safety training powered by AI Dash Cams and GPS-tracking technology from Samsara, the pioneer of the Connected Operations ® Platform. Before installing Samsara's smart AI-augmented platform, the business had limited visibility into driver behaviour. Manual processes and unreliable tracking systems led to growing compliance pressures and rising operational risks, prompting a need for a modern approach to fleet safety and oversight. By adopting Samsara's Connected Operations Platform, the team now has holistic, real-time visibility into driver behaviours such as harsh braking, mobile phone use, speeding, seatbelt violations, and inattentive driving, enabling immediate coaching and faster safety interventions. Since rolling out Samsara's AI Dash Cams and Vehicle Gateway technology, Cappagh Browne — which carries out more than 65,000 jobs annually across its 250-vehicle fleet — reported significant improvements in fleet safety, including: An 88% decrease in at-fault accident claims within one year, significantly reducing insurance costs and vehicle downtime. A 10% reduction in overall fuel spend through better route planning and driver coaching, delivering measurable savings and greater efficiency. A 17% drop in speeding events, leading to safer driving and reduced risk exposure. An increase in vehicle inspection completion rates from 80% to 93%. At the same time, vehicle inspection time was cut by more than half, boosting both compliance and productivity. £100,000 in annual cost savings, achieved through fewer accidents and improved efficiency. Matthew Reid, Head of Plant & Transport at Cappagh Browne, said, 'It's all about awareness. Once drivers understood the risks, they were motivated to self-correct unsafe habits themselves. Educating drivers on best practice around vehicle idling as well is paying dividends.' Cappagh Browne has also introduced safety stand-downs and integrated Samsara footage into driver training programmes. Real-time idling reports are being used to reinforce fuel-saving habits across the fleet. 'Cappagh Browne's results show how connected operations can make a real difference to safety and efficiency in the utilities sector,' said Philip van der Wilt, SVP and GM EMEA at Samsara. 'With better visibility and data to guide decisions, they've built a stronger foundation for smarter, safer, and more sustainable operations.' The company is now expanding its use of Samsara into new operational areas, with plans to streamline compliance monitoring and strengthen incident response across its wastewater network. Supporting Resources Case Study Images About Samsara Samsara (NYSE: IOT) is the pioneer of the Connected Operations ® Platform, which enables organizations that depend on physical operations to harness Internet of Things (IoT) data to develop actionable insights and improve their operations. With tens of thousands of customers across North America and Europe, Samsara is a proud technology partner to the people who keep our global economy running, including the world's leading organizations across construction, transportation and warehousing, field services, manufacturing, retail, logistics, and the public sector. The company's mission is to increase the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of the operations that power the global economy. Samsara is a registered trademark of Samsara Inc. All other brand names, product names or trademarks belong to their respective holders.
Yahoo
27-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wolfe Research Raises Samsara Target to $45, Maintains Outperform
Wolfe Research bumped its price target on Samsara (NYSE: IOT) to $45 from $41 in early June, keeping its Outperform rating in place. The update came after the stock fell roughly 12% following its Q1 FY2026 earnings report. An executive in a suit checking a bank of computers symbolizing the technology of the financial services industry. The firm still backs the company's position, calling it a strong player in a fragmented market. They noted that Samsara's full-year guidance was cautious but viewed it as a smart move given the current macro environment. Wolfe values the stock at around 13.5 times projected revenue for 2026, a premium to peers in the high-growth category, but one they see justified. The analysts pointed to solid execution in the first quarter as a reason to stay optimistic. While we acknowledge the potential of IOT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
