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Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, S Prabhakar Kudva, Director and Principal Officer at Samvitti Capital, shares his outlook on Indian equities amid ongoing market believes the next major bullish phase for Indian markets is likely to begin after September 2025, following a period of digestion after two strong years of highlights the role of mid and small-cap stocks in driving growth, the resilience of domestic liquidity, and potential FII inflows as global dynamics also discusses key sectors to watch and explains why he views the current phase as a stock picker's market. Edited Excerpts –A) I think we need to take a step back and look at the big picture. We are coming off two very good years (Mar'23 to Sep'24) in the broader equity we are going through in 2025 is best described as a period of digestion or consolidation. In the interim, the markets have navigated elections, multiple wars, and most recently, the 'Trump tantrums'.Against this backdrop, the markets are doing just okay. That said, there is no major reason for any immediate large upside as earnings growth has been good but is already well priced there is little fear of a large downside given the strong domestic liquidity and under-weight FII positioning.A) Typically, Q1 is a weaker quarter compared to Q4, so the first thing is we should avoid QoQ comparisons. Last year, Q1 was all about elections, followed by a low-growth year, I expect both Q1 and Q2—and maybe even Q3—to enjoy a low base effect and deliver reasonably good growth has been the trend over the last few years, the action is likely to be in the mid and small-cap space, while large caps will provide more sedate returns overall.A) As mentioned earlier, we are now in a rangebound market after a bullish phase that lasted 18-24 months until Sep'24. This rangebound phase typically lasts around 12 months, so the next leg may start only after Sep'25 or course, this is just conjecture based on historical patterns. In this environment, only a few sectors will do well. One needs to identify these outperforming sectors and allocate to quality stocks during corrective phases.A) The SIP momentum picked up post-Covid and has been continuing ever since. I believe the new generation of investors understands that significant wealth creation is possible only in equity investors who started small in 2021 have done very well over the last four years and are consistently increasing their looks like a secular trend, and we should not be surprised if SIP flows continue to rise and the numbers become truly staggering over the next decade.A) I think it's neither valuations nor growth. FIIs have been under-weight on India over the last few years primarily because they've been doing so well in their home countries, especially with the Mag7 and big tech companies performing exceedingly hasn't been a pressing reason for them to step out, particularly when most global markets struggled post-Covid. India, of course, has been an exception with strong in terms of allocations, we're still bucketed with other Emerging Markets, and overall allocations to this segment were probably reduced. Also, the US dollar has been very strong during this only now, post-Trump, that the dollar weakness has begun, and as a result, emerging markets—including India—are starting to pick this trend continues, we can expect FII allocations to India and other EMs to increase materially, something we've started to see in recent months.A) My focus has always been on growth. I believe sectors like Pharma, Auto Components, Defence, Power, Data Centres, EPC, Value Retail, and Wealth Management are likely to perform well.A) We've seen a reasonable correction across the board over the last six months, so a lot of froth has been cleared out. I wouldn't say valuations are cheap, but at the same time, they're not overheated either—broadly course, on a stock-specific basis, there will always be pockets of over-valuation, but overall, I don't see much overheating at this point.A) I believe the responsibility doesn't lie solely with SEBI but with the entire ecosystem. Investor education is crucial because, ultimately, if people are inclined to gamble, they'll find ways to do so outside of markets as said, I'm not in favour of over-regulation as long as there's no misconduct, because excessive regulations can also hurt genuine players. It's a delicate balance, and SEBI has been doing an exemplary job in keeping our markets clean. That focus should continue.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Next bullish phase for Indian markets likely after September 2025, says Samvitti Capital's Prabhakar Kudva
In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, S Prabhakar Kudva, Director and Principal Officer at Samvitti Capital, shares his outlook on Indian equities amid ongoing market consolidation. Kudva believes the next major bullish phase for Indian markets is likely to begin after September 2025, following a period of digestion after two strong years of rally. He highlights the role of mid and small-cap stocks in driving growth, the resilience of domestic liquidity, and potential FII inflows as global dynamics shift. Kudva also discusses key sectors to watch and explains why he views the current phase as a stock picker's market. Edited Excerpts – Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Operations Management Leadership Management CXO MCA Design Thinking Others Technology Cybersecurity PGDM Healthcare Degree Data Analytics Public Policy healthcare MBA Product Management Finance Data Science Digital Marketing Data Science others Artificial Intelligence Project Management Skills you'll gain: Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma Analytical Tools Supply Chain Management & Strategies Service Operations Management Duration: 10 Months IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics Starts on Jan 27, 2024 Get Details Q) Markets are struggling in the first month of 2H2025. What is limiting the upside? A) I think we need to take a step back and look at the big picture. We are coming off two very good years (Mar'23 to Sep'24) in the broader equity market. What we are going through in 2025 is best described as a period of digestion or consolidation. In the interim, the markets have navigated elections, multiple wars, and most recently, the 'Trump tantrums'. Against this backdrop, the markets are doing just okay. That said, there is no major reason for any immediate large upside as earnings growth has been good but is already well priced in. Also, there is little fear of a large downside given the strong domestic liquidity and under-weight FII positioning. Q) The June quarter season has just begun – how do you see India Inc. faring in this quarter? Which sectors should investors watch out for? A) Typically, Q1 is a weaker quarter compared to Q4, so the first thing is we should avoid QoQ comparisons. Last year, Q1 was all about elections, followed by a low-growth Q2. This year, I expect both Q1 and Q2—and maybe even Q3—to enjoy a low base effect and deliver reasonably good growth overall. As has been the trend over the last few years, the action is likely to be in the mid and small-cap space, while large caps will provide more sedate returns overall. Q) Everyone says it is a stock pickers' market now and the days of easy money are over. What are your views? A) As mentioned earlier, we are now in a rangebound market after a bullish phase that lasted 18-24 months until Sep'24. This rangebound phase typically lasts around 12 months, so the next leg may start only after Sep'25 or so. Of course, this is just conjecture based on historical patterns. In this environment, only a few sectors will do well. One needs to identify these outperforming sectors and allocate to quality stocks during corrective phases. Q) SIP crossed ₹27,000 crore for the first time in June. What is boosting the momentum? A) The SIP momentum picked up post-Covid and has been continuing ever since. I believe the new generation of investors understands that significant wealth creation is possible only in equity markets. Many investors who started small in 2021 have done very well over the last four years and are consistently increasing their exposure. This looks like a secular trend, and we should not be surprised if SIP flows continue to rise and the numbers become truly staggering over the next decade. Q) FIIs are still not back in India completely. Are valuations or earnings acting as headwinds? A) I think it's neither valuations nor growth. FIIs have been under-weight on India over the last few years primarily because they've been doing so well in their home countries, especially with the Mag7 and big tech companies performing exceedingly well. There hasn't been a pressing reason for them to step out, particularly when most global markets struggled post-Covid. India, of course, has been an exception with strong growth. However, in terms of allocations, we're still bucketed with other Emerging Markets, and overall allocations to this segment were probably reduced. Also, the US dollar has been very strong during this period. It's only now, post-Trump, that the dollar weakness has begun, and as a result, emerging markets—including India—are starting to pick up. If this trend continues, we can expect FII allocations to India and other EMs to increase materially, something we've started to see in recent months. Q) Which sectors are likely to drive momentum in 2H2025? A) My focus has always been on growth. I believe sectors like Pharma, Auto Components, Defence, Power, Data Centres, EPC, Value Retail, and Wealth Management are likely to perform well. Q) Any sectors you think are overheated? A) We've seen a reasonable correction across the board over the last six months, so a lot of froth has been cleared out. I wouldn't say valuations are cheap, but at the same time, they're not overheated either—broadly speaking. Of course, on a stock-specific basis, there will always be pockets of over-valuation, but overall, I don't see much overheating at this point. Q) Despite recent regulatory steps, retail investors still account for 91% of the losses in the derivatives segment. What more can SEBI do to protect them? A) I believe the responsibility doesn't lie solely with SEBI but with the entire ecosystem. Investor education is crucial because, ultimately, if people are inclined to gamble, they'll find ways to do so outside of markets as well. That said, I'm not in favour of over-regulation as long as there's no misconduct, because excessive regulations can also hurt genuine players. It's a delicate balance, and SEBI has been doing an exemplary job in keeping our markets clean. That focus should continue.
Economic Times
12-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
PMS Tracker: Top 15 funds gain up to 16.5% in May; Elever, Axis strategies lag
Bottom performers: Elever, Aequitas, Axis strategies underperform Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel At least 15 PMS funds across smallcap, midcap, and multi-cap strategies delivered solid gains in May 2025, with Money Grow Asset's Small Midcap strategy emerging as the top performer with a 16.5% monthly return, according to data from PMS Asset Managers' Clean Tech Portfolio followed closely with a 16% return. Negen Capital's Special Situations and Technology Fund gained 15.35%, while Nine Rivers Capital's Aurum Small Cap Opportunities returned 14.4%. Samvitti Capital's PMS Aggressive Growth strategy also featured prominently with a 14.39% return in Investment Advisors' Emerging Giants strategy posted a 14.29% gain, and Waya Financial Technologies' Bin73 Sunrise Alpha, a new entrant in the small and midcap segment, rose 14.14%. Anand Rathi's Decennium Opportunity strategy returned 13.91%, while Bonanza Portfolio's Multicap fund and Accelt's Long Term Equity Fund gained 13.87% and 13.80%, funds in the top 15 include portfolios managed by Samvitti Capital, ithought Financial, Master Portfolio Services, and Tulsian PMS, each delivering monthly gains of over 13%.While many strategies posted double-digit gains, a few funds underperformed during the month. Elever Investment Adviser's Factorshields PMS was the biggest laggard, slipping 0.91%, followed by its Factoralpha PMS, which declined 0.58%.Aequitas Investment Consultancy's India Opportunities Product lost 0.33%, while Axis Securities' AlphaSense AI strategy declined 0.30%. Invasset's Growth Pro Max fell 0.26%, and Kotak Mahindra AMC's Pharma and Healthcare strategy was down 0.23%.Other funds with relatively muted performance include Profusion Investment's Income Enhancer (up 0.11%), PRPEdge Wealth's Alphaa Better Risk Reward (up 0.13%), and Agreya Capital's Multi-Asset Enhancer (up 0.21%).In May, the performance gap among PMS strategies was wide, with high-beta smallcap and thematic strategies staging a sharp rebound, while select sectoral, quant-based, and hybrid portfolios struggled to keep pace.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
12-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
PMS Tracker: Top 15 funds gain up to 16.5% in May; Elever, Axis strategies lag
At least 15 PMS funds across smallcap, midcap, and multi-cap strategies delivered solid gains in May 2025, with Money Grow Asset's Small Midcap strategy emerging as the top performer with a 16.5% monthly return, according to data from PMS Bazaar. NAFA Asset Managers' Clean Tech Portfolio followed closely with a 16% return. Negen Capital's Special Situations and Technology Fund gained 15.35%, while Nine Rivers Capital's Aurum Small Cap Opportunities returned 14.4%. Samvitti Capital's PMS Aggressive Growth strategy also featured prominently with a 14.39% return in May. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Undo Ambit Investment Advisors' Emerging Giants strategy posted a 14.29% gain, and Waya Financial Technologies' Bin73 Sunrise Alpha, a new entrant in the small and midcap segment, rose 14.14%. Anand Rathi's Decennium Opportunity strategy returned 13.91%, while Bonanza Portfolio's Multicap fund and Accelt's Long Term Equity Fund gained 13.87% and 13.80%, respectively. Other funds in the top 15 include portfolios managed by Samvitti Capital, ithought Financial, Master Portfolio Services, and Tulsian PMS, each delivering monthly gains of over 13%. Bottom performers: Elever, Aequitas, Axis strategies underperform While many strategies posted double-digit gains, a few funds underperformed during the month. Elever Investment Adviser's Factorshields PMS was the biggest laggard, slipping 0.91%, followed by its Factoralpha PMS, which declined 0.58%. Live Events Aequitas Investment Consultancy's India Opportunities Product lost 0.33%, while Axis Securities' AlphaSense AI strategy declined 0.30%. Invasset's Growth Pro Max fell 0.26%, and Kotak Mahindra AMC's Pharma and Healthcare strategy was down 0.23%. Other funds with relatively muted performance include Profusion Investment's Income Enhancer (up 0.11%), PRPEdge Wealth's Alphaa Better Risk Reward (up 0.13%), and Agreya Capital's Multi-Asset Enhancer (up 0.21%). In May, the performance gap among PMS strategies was wide, with high-beta smallcap and thematic strategies staging a sharp rebound, while select sectoral, quant-based, and hybrid portfolios struggled to keep pace. Also read | PMS Tracker: Top 15 funds gain up to 10% in April, while quant, smallcap strategies falter
Time of India
13-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
PMS Tracker: Top 15 funds gain up to 10% in April, while quant, smallcap strategies falter
At least 15 PMS funds across multi-cap, smallcap, and thematic strategies delivered positive returns in April 2025, with Trivantage Capital Management's Small and Midcap Financials fund leading the charts with a 9.86% gain, according to data from PMS Bazaar. Qode Advisors LLP secured the next two spots with its Tactical Fund and All Weather strategies gaining 9.56% and 8.72%, respectively. 2Point2 Capital's Long Term Value Fund rose 8.10%, while Alchemy Capital Management's High Growth strategy returned 7.14%. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Google Brain Co-Founder Andrew Ng, Recommends: Read These 5 Books And Turn Your Life Around Blinkist: Andrew Ng's Reading List Undo Thematic and multi-cap strategies also featured prominently among the top performers. Valcreate Investment Managers' IME Digital Disruption Fund delivered a 6.97% return, and Money Grow Asset's Blend Fund added 6.66%. Hem Securities' India Rising SME Stars, a smallcap fund, returned 6.51%. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Other funds in the top 15 include portfolios managed by Systematix Shares, Fractal Capital, Tulsian PMS, and Ambit Investment Advisors, each delivering monthly gains between 5.4% and 6%. Bottom performers: Quant and smallcap funds under pressure While several PMS strategies posted strong gains in April, others saw notable declines. East Green Advisors' Quant Strategy was the biggest laggard, falling 10.37% for the month. Live Events Dynamic Equities' Emerging and Smallcap strategies fell 7.2% and 5.3%, respectively, both underperforming in the smallcap segment. Shree Rama Managers' Lakshmi Plan declined 6.4%, while Samvitti Capital's PMS Active Alpha Multicap slipped 4.7%. Other significant losers included JM Financial 's India Resurgent Portfolio Series – III and Samvitti Capital's Aggressive Growth, both of which slipped 4% in April, and Anand Rathi's Impress PMS, which dropped 3.4%. The list of underperformers also featured strategies from Bonanza Portfolio, Equitree Capital, Carnelian Asset Management, and Alchemy Capital Management, with monthly losses ranging from 2.17% to 3.3%. In April, PMS fund performance varied widely across categories. While several multi-cap, smallcap, and thematic strategies registered solid gains, others — particularly quant-driven and high-beta smallcap portfolios — saw pressure amid market volatility. Also read | Largecap mutual funds gain investor interest, inflows surge by 8% in April
