Latest news with #SanFranciscoFed
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs would lift US factory jobs, cut overall income, San Francisco Fed says
(Reuters) -The Trump administration's tariffs are likely to boost U.S. manufacturing jobs and real income in a majority of states, but lower employment and income adjusted for inflation in the country as a whole, new research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve showed on Monday. Assuming a 25% increase in U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 30% levies on Chinese goods, and 10% on the rest of the world, economists at the regional Fed bank estimated a 0.2% drop in U.S. employment over the next four years, as a reduction in U.S. services and agricultural jobs overwhelms a projected jump in manufacturing employment. And while income adjusted for inflation would likely increase in 31 of the 50 states, they found, the rest - including large states like California and Texas - would see declines, resulting in an overall 0.4% drop in U.S. real income. "The states that lose the most from tariffs tend to have close trading links with the countries most affected by the tariffs," the researchers wrote, noting that real income could drop by more than 2% in some states and rise as much as in 1.7% in others. The research, published in the San Francisco Fed's latest Economic Letter, is part of an ongoing effort at the U.S. central bank to try to figure out the real impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation and the labor market as policymakers consider when they may need to resume interest rate cuts to support a softening economy. It is not meant as a precise forecast, the researchers noted. That's partly because the level of tariffs could be higher or lower than the late-May levels used in the analysis. The tariffs the Trump administration has indicated will be in place by August 1 would be more onerous than those used as the basis for the San Francisco Fed analysis. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs would lift US factory jobs, cut overall income, San Francisco Fed says
(Reuters) -The Trump administration's tariffs are likely to boost U.S. manufacturing jobs and real income in a majority of states, but lower employment and income adjusted for inflation in the country as a whole, new research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve showed on Monday. Assuming a 25% increase in U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, 30% levies on Chinese goods, and 10% on the rest of the world, economists at the regional Fed bank estimated a 0.2% drop in U.S. employment over the next four years, as a reduction in U.S. services and agricultural jobs overwhelms a projected jump in manufacturing employment. And while income adjusted for inflation would likely increase in 31 of the 50 states, they found, the rest - including large states like California and Texas - would see declines, resulting in an overall 0.4% drop in U.S. real income. "The states that lose the most from tariffs tend to have close trading links with the countries most affected by the tariffs," the researchers wrote, noting that real income could drop by more than 2% in some states and rise as much as in 1.7% in others. The research, published in the San Francisco Fed's latest Economic Letter, is part of an ongoing effort at the U.S. central bank to try to figure out the real impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation and the labor market as policymakers consider when they may need to resume interest rate cuts to support a softening economy. It is not meant as a precise forecast, the researchers noted. That's partly because the level of tariffs could be higher or lower than the late-May levels used in the analysis. The tariffs the Trump administration has indicated will be in place by August 1 would be more onerous than those used as the basis for the San Francisco Fed analysis.
CNBC
20-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly: Without tariffs, Fed would be considering rate normalization
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' and CNBC's Steve Liesman to talk the state of the U.S. economy, falling inflation, what is ahead for the central bank and more.
New Straits Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Gold little changed as traders await US inflation data
KUALA LUMPUR: Gold prices inched lower on Friday as investors held back from making big bets ahead of a key US inflation report that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at US$3,312.85 an ounce, as of 0100 GMT. Bullion has gained 0.6 per cent so far in May, heading for its fifth straight monthly rise. US gold futures eased 0.2 per cent to US$3,310.50. Global stocks rose while the US dollar weakened on Thursday as markets digested an ongoing court battle over President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of Trump's tariffs on Thursday, a day after a US trade court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing the duties and ordered an immediate block on them. Investors now await the April US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due later in the day. Fed policymakers could still cut interest rates twice this year as they projected in March, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday, but for now rates should remain steady to make sure inflation is on track to reach the central bank's 2 per cent goal. Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.50 per cent to 930.20 metric tons on Thursday from 925.61 tons on Wednesday. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.3 per cent to US$33.23 an ounce, platinum was down 0.1 per cent at US$1,080.93 and palladium edged 0.1 per cent lower to US$972.11.
Bloomberg
21-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Daly, Hammack Stress Wait-And-See Policy Approach
Two Federal Reserve officials underscored the US central bank can be patient and assess incoming data before adjusting policy as the economy navigates heightened uncertainty. The Fed should stay in a 'central position, and then be prepared to move agilely — but not abruptly or quickly when we don't need to because we don't have enough information,' San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday during the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.
