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Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else's War?
Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else's War?

NDTV

time14 hours ago

  • Business
  • NDTV

Tariff Blitz: Is India Becoming Collateral Damage In Someone Else's War?

In today's fractured world, great power rivalry is rewriting the rules of economic engagement. As the European Union (EU) and the United States tighten the screws on Russia, the knock-on effects land squarely on India. A slew of unilateral coercive measures is shrinking New Delhi's freedom to calibrate its foreign policy. The situation warrants discreet diplomacy and sober calculation, not slogans. Escalating Ultimatums The EU's eighteenth sanctions package, unveiled on July 18, slashes the price cap on Russian crude and bars the import of petroleum products refined from that crude in third countries. Indian refineries that bought discounted Russian oil and sold petroleum products to Europe now face exclusion and the loss of European finance, insurance and shipping cover if they continue handling Russian barrels. Across the Atlantic, the proposed 'Sanctioning Russia Act' threatens secondary tariffs of up to 500% on goods from any country trading with Russia should a Ukraine peace deal remain elusive. US President Donald Trump warned of "very severe tariffs" of 100% on any state "feeding Russia's war machine". Senator Lindsey Graham, the prime mover of the bill in the Senate, admonished Brazil, China and India, and said, "We're going to tear the hell out of you and crush your economy, because what you are doing is blood money." The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has previously voiced similar sentiments, accusing buyers of Russian energy of "sharing responsibility" for prolonging the conflict. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also warned that India, China and Brazil "might be hit very hard" if they continue to lean on Putin. The message from transatlantic capitals is unmistakable. They are not only closing ranks against Russia but are also closing doors on those who refuse to fall in line. Compliance is no longer voluntary. It is being engineered. New Delhi has pushed back, accusing the EU of "double standards", alluding to European purchases of Russian energy. The Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air calculated that Russia has earned 913 billion euros from fossil fuel exports since February 2022. The EU accounts for 212 billion euros of that. Policy Peril Moral arguments aside, the economic risks are serious. Cheap Russian oil has helped India moderate inflation, and, paradoxically, the EU's lower price cap sweetens those discounts. Yet, a supply disruption triggered by the loss of shipping, insurance or tanker cover, or by high US duties on Indian imports, would flip the equation. Each $10 rise in crude prices adds an estimated $14 billion to India's annual import bill. Refineries geared to EU markets may have to abandon Russian feedstock or surrender premium customers. Punitive US duties would bruise Indian exports of pharmaceuticals, apparel, and machinery, sap investor confidence, and threaten jobs. The sanctions debate is not academic. It touches the factory floor and the balance sheet. India Has Been Here Before As a diplomatic trench warrior, I have seen India weather such situations before. Western sanctions followed our 1998 nuclear tests. India held its nerve through restraint and engagement. During the US-Iran standoff in the Obama administration, India devised a rupee payment mechanism to keep Iranian oil flowing. In 2022, it secured a CAATSA waiver to import Russia's S-400 air defence system. What is new now is the intensity of India's links with sanctioning partners. The EU is a vital source of trade, investment and technology. Prime Minister Modi and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged to clinch a free trade agreement in 2025. The United States is India's largest export destination and key to its Indo-Pacific strategy. PM Modi and President Trump have set a $500 billion trade target for 2030 and aim to sign the first tranche of a trade agreement this autumn. Also, negotiations are underway on reciprocal tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 1. Meanwhile, India values its defence and diplomatic ties with Russia. The escalating sanctions are stress-testing India's three-cornered strategy. Walking a tightrope is hard enough. Juggling three flaming torches on that rope is quite another level of difficulty. Engagement Strategy Rhetoric won't ease tensions; deliberate diplomacy might. The EU financial measures bite only when buyers rely on European services. Moreover, tracing the origin of molecules in diesel or aviation fuel is technically fraught. It makes enforcement tricky, save at the Nayara refinery, where Rosneft holds a stake. India should quietly pursue regulatory clarity and carve-outs that offer compliance flexibility, without surrendering principle. With Washington, the priority is to preserve strategic trust. India can signal, discreetly, its intent to avoid dependence on any single supplier. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri has pointed out that India now imports from 40 nations, as against 27 before the start of the Ukraine conflict. Diversification is not optics. It is a strategy, and it undercuts the claim that India is "feeding Russia's war machine". Geo-economic interdependence also favours dialogue. The American Action Forum estimates that imposing 100% tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian exports, including India, would hit roughly 40% of total US imports, accounting for more than $1.3 trillion in goods. This could trigger supply shocks unseen since the pandemic. New Delhi can press this argument and, if necessary, seek a CAATSA-style waiver. A tariff war, it can convincingly show, would be a lose-lose outcome. Holding the Centre There is no virtue in grandstanding, nor wisdom in surrender. India's challenge is to retain economic and diplomatic space without becoming collateral damage in somebody else's contest. In an era where sanctions are the new missiles and tariffs the new trenches, India's credibility will rest on holding the centre calmly, clearly and on its own terms.

Trump backs new Russia sanctions bill that could place 500% tariff on India
Trump backs new Russia sanctions bill that could place 500% tariff on India

Time of India

time10-07-2025

  • Politics
  • Time of India

Trump backs new Russia sanctions bill that could place 500% tariff on India

US President Donald Trump on Thursday signalled strong support for a sweeping new sanctions bill aimed at pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. The proposed legislation, the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 , includes a controversial provision to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries such as India and China that continue purchasing Russian energy products. 'I'm looking. It's totally my option. They pass it totally at my option, and to terminate totally at my option. And I'm looking at it very strongly,' Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like War Thunder - Register now for free and play against over 75 Million real Players War Thunder Play Now — MattooShashank (@MattooShashank) The president also expressed growing frustration with Putin for prolonging the conflict, and recently directed the US Department of Defense to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, signalling a harder line, according to the Associated Press.. Live Events The Sanctioning Russia Act , introduced in April by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, proposes wide-ranging penalties against countries that import Russian-origin crude oil, natural gas, uranium, and petroleum products. It also includes broader sanctions targeting Russian companies, state institutions, and top officials. In a June 30 interview with ABC News , Graham said that Trump had personally encouraged lawmakers to advance the bill. 'This is a big breakthrough,' he said, adding that the legislation would strengthen Trump's hand in any future negotiations with Putin. The bill has received significant support in Congress. 'I've got 84 co-sponsors for a Russian sanctions bill that is an economic bunker buster against China, India, and Russia for Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. I think that bill's going to pass,' Graham said. A key feature of the bill is a clause permitting the US President to grant a one-time, 180-day waiver to any country, citing national security interests. According to a Hindustan Times report, lawmakers are considering amendments to allow a second waiver under certain conditions. India, which has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil since 2022, finds itself squarely in the crosshairs of the legislation. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in May, purchasing approximately €4.2 billion worth, with crude oil making up 72% of that total. When asked about the bill during his visit to Washington earlier this month, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar confirmed that New Delhi is closely following developments and has been engaging with key stakeholders in the US Congress. 'Regarding Senator Lindsey Graham's bill, obviously, any development which is happening in the US Congress is of interest to us, if it impacts our interest or could impact our interest,' Jaishankar told reporters. 'So we have been in touch with Senator Graham. The embassy and the ambassador have been in touch. I think our concerns and our interests on energy security have been made conversant to him, so we'll then have to cross that bridge if we come to it.' Graham has been explicit in his intent, stating: 'If you are buying products from Russia and you are not helping Ukraine, then there's a 500% tariff on your products coming into the United States.' He said India and China together account for around 70% of Russia's oil exports.

Trump backs 500% tariff on India's Russian oil trade to pressure Putin
Trump backs 500% tariff on India's Russian oil trade to pressure Putin

Business Standard

time10-07-2025

  • Business
  • Business Standard

Trump backs 500% tariff on India's Russian oil trade to pressure Putin

US President Donald Trump said he is strongly considering supporting a proposed sanctions bill aimed at pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. The legislation, known as the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, includes a provision to impose a 500 per cent tariff on countries like India and China that continue purchasing Russian energy products. 'I'm looking. It's totally my option. They pass it totally at my option, and to terminate totally at my option. And I'm looking at it very strongly,' Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting. Trump also expressed growing frustration with Putin for prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. He recently instructed the US Department of Defence to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, signalling a harder stance, according to the Associated Press. What does the Sanctioning Russia Act propose? Introduced in April by Senator Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, the bill proposes sweeping penalties on countries that continue importing Russian-origin oil, natural gas, uranium, or petroleum products. It also includes provisions for broader sanctions against Russian companies, state institutions, and senior officials. In a June 30 interview with ABC News, Graham said Trump had encouraged legislators to push the bill forward. 'This is a big breakthrough,' he stated, noting that the bill would strengthen Trump's hand in future negotiations with Putin. India, China in focus as top buyers of Russian oil Graham clarified that the bill targets countries whose oil purchases help fund Russia's war effort. 'If you are buying products from Russia and you are not helping Ukraine, then there's a 500 per cent tariff on your products coming into the United States,' he said. He cited that India and China account for roughly 70 per cent of Russia's oil exports. Donald Trump can grant limited waivers under the bill The legislation includes a provision allowing the US President to issue a one-time, 180-day waiver to any country, based on national security interests. According to a Hindustan Times report, lawmakers are also considering amendments that would allow a second waiver under certain conditions. Donald Trump targets smaller trade partners in tariff move Trump also issued letters to seven smaller US trading partners on Wednesday — Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka — announcing new tariffs. These countries are not considered major industrial competitors to the US. Earlier this week, Trump announced a 35 per cent tariff on Serbia, framing it as a tool for promoting peace through trade negotiations. He said the new tariff rates were determined based on 'common sense and trade imbalances.' Africa not under scrutiny, says Trump When asked about visiting African leaders from Liberia, Senegal, Gabon, Mauritania, and Guinea-Bissau, Trump stated he had no intention of imposing penalties. 'These are friends of mine now,' he said.

Trump backs bill pushing 500% tariffs on Russia's trade partners; India and China in dilemma
Trump backs bill pushing 500% tariffs on Russia's trade partners; India and China in dilemma

New Indian Express

time02-07-2025

  • Business
  • New Indian Express

Trump backs bill pushing 500% tariffs on Russia's trade partners; India and China in dilemma

In a development that could reshape US foreign trade policy and geopolitical alignments, US President Donald Trump has backed a Senate bill proposing sweeping 500% tariffs on countries maintaining economic ties with Russia. The legislation, known as the 'Sanctioning Russia Act', seeks to economically isolate Moscow by penalising third-party nations — including India and China — that continue importing large volumes of Russian oil.

India-Russia ties in spotlight as US Senator pushes for targeting business with Moscow
India-Russia ties in spotlight as US Senator pushes for targeting business with Moscow

Hindustan Times

time23-06-2025

  • Business
  • Hindustan Times

India-Russia ties in spotlight as US Senator pushes for targeting business with Moscow

India's economic ties with Russia are in the spotlight again after influential US Senator Lindsey Graham publicly pushed for a new sanctions bill that will also target countries that do business with Moscow. 'I've got 84 co-sponsors for a Russian sanctions bill that is an economic bunker buster against China, India, and Russia for Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. I think that bill's going to pass,' Graham said in a television interview on Sunday. US Senator Lindsey Graham, a close political ally of President Trump, has called on India to cut economic ties with Russia. (X) Graham was referring to the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, which was introduced in America's Senate in April this year. The bill proposes steep American tariffs on goods and services exports from countries that purchase Russian-origin oil, natural gas, uranium, and petroleum products. It also pushes for expanded sanctions against Russian businesses, government institutions, and top policymakers. India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in May 2025, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. It is estimated that India purchased fossil fuels worth 4.2 billion euros from Russia in May, with crude oil amounting to 72% of the total. The proposed bill also allows the President of the United States to issue a one-time waiver of 180 days to a particular country in case 'the President determines that such a waiver is in the national security interests of the United States'. The bill is intended to put economic pressure on Russia and force it to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Graham, a close political ally of President Trump, has called on India to cut economic ties with Russia. 'To China and India: if you continue to prop up Putin's war machine, you'll have nobody to blame but yourself,' he wrote on X on June 13. So far, the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 has been read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. It will subsequently have to be passed by the Senate, the House of Representatives, and signed by Trump before it becomes law. During an interview on Sunday, Senator Graham, who is the main sponsor of the bill, pushed for the Sanctioning Russia Act to be passed quickly. Prashant Vashisht, senior vice president at ICRA, an investment information and credit ratings agency, said trying to push Russian oil out of the market could cause a price shock. 'Exports from major suppliers like Iran and Venezuela have already been restricted by sanctions. If India and other countries are forced to stop buying Russian oil, then prices would rise,' said Vashisht. 'India does face a risk of disruption to energy supplies. For example, we have been seeing increasing tensions in West Asia involving countries like Iran. While the situation is still uncertain, disruption of energy exports from major oil producers in the region due to an escalation would be disruptive. If you add to this by taking Russian oil out of the market, then that would create a challenging situation for India.'

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