Latest news with #SarahHouse
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. labor market surprises with 147,000 new jobs last month. Here are the big takeaways
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. labor market delivered another upside surprise last month, churning out a surprisingly strong 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down unexpectedly, too. But the headline numbers masked some weaknesses as the U.S. economy contends with fallout from President Donald Trump's economic policies, especially his sweeping import taxes and the erratic way he rolls them out. Here are five key takeaways from the jobs report the Labor Department released on Thursday. The headline jobs numbers looked good June hiring was up modestly from May's 144,000 increase in payrolls and beat the 118,000 jobs economists had forecast for last month. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in May as the ranks of the unemployed fell by 222,000. Forecasters had expected the jobless rate to inch up to 4.3%. Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and May payrolls. Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. A closer look reveals weakening in the job market 'On net, it was a good report,'' said Sarah House, senior economist with Wells Fargo, 'But when you dig underneath the surface, it was another jobs report that didn't look quite as good as first meets the eye.'' Private companies, for instance, hired just 74,000 workers last month, about half the 137,000 they hired in May. And it was the fewest hires since last October, when there were significant labor disruptions from hurricanes. State and local governments added nearly 64,000 education jobs last month – a total that may have been inflated by seasonal quirks around the end of the school year. The U.S. labor force — the count of those working and looking for work — fell by 130,000 last month on top of a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump's immigration deportations — and the fear of them — to push foreign workers out of the labor force. A falling labor force can keep the unemployment rate lower than it would be otherwise. That is because jobseekers need time to find employment and can show up as unemployed in the interim. A good job can be hard to find With unemployment low, most Americans enjoy job security. But as hiring has cooled over the past couple of years it's become harder for young people or those re-entering the workforce to find jobs, leading to longer job searches or longer spells of unemployment. The Labor Department said the number of discouraged workers, who believe no jobs are available for them, rose by 256,000 last month to 637,000. When he was laid off earlier this year from his job as a communications manager for a city government in the Seattle area, Derek Wing braced for the worst. 'The word I would use is: 'terrifying''' to describe the experience, he said. Lots of big local employers like Microsoft continue to cut jobs. And he'd heard horror stories of people applying for jobs and then – crickets. 'I had a couple of experiences where I would apply for a job and just feel like it was going out into the ether and never hearing back,'' he said. But Wing's fortunes turned quickly. He applied for an opening with Gesa Credit Union. Six weeks later – 'superfast in this economy'' -- he had a job as a communications strategist for Gesa. The Fed is likely to stay put The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump's tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to combat an outburst of inflation. As price pressures eased last year, the Fed reversed course and cut rates three times in 2024. More cuts were expected. But the central bank has turned cautious this year. 'Today's results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,″ Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. After the jobs data was released Thursday, yields on U.S. Treasurys spiked immediately. Traders in the futures market now see less than a 7% chance that the Fed could cut its main interest rate at its next meeting later this month. That's down sharply from the nearly 24% chance they saw just a day earlier, according to data from CME Group. The outlook is cloudy Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump's policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs. Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. Trump has increased the anxiety by imposing tariffs in an unpredictable way — announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. The uncertainty has left businesses bewildered and hesitant to make decisions about hiring and investment. House at Wells Fargo expects monthly job growth to fall below 100,000 in the second half of the year. 'We're bracing for a much lower pace of job growth,″ she said. 'There's still a lot of policy uncertainty.″
Globe and Mail
03-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
U.S. labor market surprises with 147,000 new jobs last month. Here are the big takeaways
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. labor market delivered another upside surprise last month, churning out a surprisingly strong 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down unexpectedly, too. But the headline numbers masked some weaknesses as the U.S. economy contends with fallout from President Donald Trump's economic policies, especially his sweeping import taxes and the erratic way he rolls them out. Here are five key takeaways from the jobs report the Labor Department released on Thursday. The headline jobs numbers looked good June hiring was up modestly from May's 144,000 increase in payrolls and beat the 118,000 jobs economists had forecast for last month. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in May as the ranks of the unemployed fell by 222,000. Forecasters had expected the jobless rate to inch up to 4.3%. Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and May payrolls. Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. A closer look reveals weakening in the job market 'On net, it was a good report,'' said Sarah House, senior economist with Wells Fargo, 'But when you dig underneath the surface, it was another jobs report that didn't look quite as good as first meets the eye.'' Private companies, for instance, hired just 74,000 workers last month, about half the 137,000 they hired in May. And it was the fewest hires since last October, when there were significant labor disruptions from hurricanes. State and local governments added nearly 64,000 education jobs last month – a total that may have been inflated by seasonal quirks around the end of the school year. The U.S. labor force — the count of those working and looking for work — fell by 130,000 last month on top of a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump's immigration deportations — and the fear of them — to push foreign workers out of the labor force. A falling labor force can keep the unemployment rate lower than it would be otherwise. That is because jobseekers need time to find employment and can show up as unemployed in the interim. A good job can be hard to find With unemployment low, most Americans enjoy job security. But as hiring has cooled over the past couple of years it's become harder for young people or those re-entering the workforce to find jobs, leading to longer job searches or longer spells of unemployment. The Labor Department said the number of discouraged workers, who believe no jobs are available for them, rose by 256,000 last month to 637,000. When he was laid off earlier this year from his job as a communications manager for a city government in the Seattle area, Derek Wing braced for the worst. 'The word I would use is: 'terrifying''' to describe the experience, he said. Lots of big local employers like Microsoft continue to cut jobs. And he'd heard horror stories of people applying for jobs and then – crickets. 'I had a couple of experiences where I would apply for a job and just feel like it was going out into the ether and never hearing back,'' he said. But Wing's fortunes turned quickly. He applied for an opening with Gesa Credit Union. Six weeks later – 'superfast in this economy'' -- he had a job as a communications strategist for Gesa. The Fed is likely to stay put The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump's tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to combat an outburst of inflation. As price pressures eased last year, the Fed reversed course and cut rates three times in 2024. More cuts were expected. But the central bank has turned cautious this year. 'Today's results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,″ Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. After the jobs data was released Thursday, yields on U.S. Treasurys spiked immediately. Traders in the futures market now see less than a 7% chance that the Fed could cut its main interest rate at its next meeting later this month. That's down sharply from the nearly 24% chance they saw just a day earlier, according to data from CME Group. The outlook is cloudy Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump's policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs. Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. Trump has increased the anxiety by imposing tariffs in an unpredictable way — announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. The uncertainty has left businesses bewildered and hesitant to make decisions about hiring and investment. House at Wells Fargo expects monthly job growth to fall below 100,000 in the second half of the year. 'We're bracing for a much lower pace of job growth,″ she said. 'There's still a lot of policy uncertainty.″
Global News
03-07-2025
- Business
- Global News
U.S. added 147K new jobs last month. Here's what the numbers don't show
The U.S. labor market delivered another upside surprise last month, churning out a surprisingly strong 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down unexpectedly, too. But the headline numbers masked some weaknesses as the U.S. economy contends with fallout from President Donald Trump's economic policies, especially his sweeping import taxes and the erratic way he rolls them out. Here are five key takeaways from the jobs report the Labor Department released on Thursday. The headline jobs numbers looked good June hiring was up modestly from May's 144,000 increase in payrolls and beat the 118,000 jobs economists had forecast for last month. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in May as the ranks of the unemployed fell by 222,000. Forecasters had expected the jobless rate to inch up to 4.3%. Story continues below advertisement Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and May payrolls. 2:04 Canada on track for 'mild recession' this year: Deloitte Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. A closer look reveals weakening in the job market 'On net, it was a good report,'' said Sarah House, senior economist with Wells Fargo, 'But when you dig underneath the surface, it was another jobs report that didn't look quite as good as first meets the eye.'' Story continues below advertisement Private companies, for instance, hired just 74,000 workers last month, about half the 137,000 they hired in May. And it was the fewest hires since last October, when there were significant labor disruptions from hurricanes. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy State and local governments added nearly 64,000 education jobs last month – a total that may have been inflated by seasonal quirks around the end of the school year. 2:56 World Bank says economy is on track for worst decade since 1960s The U.S. labor force — the count of those working and looking for work — fell by 130,000 last month on top of a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump's immigration deportations — and the fear of them — to push foreign workers out of the labor force. A falling labor force can keep the unemployment rate lower than it would be otherwise. That is because jobseekers need time to find employment and can show up as unemployed in the interim. Story continues below advertisement A good job can be hard to find With unemployment low, most Americans enjoy job security. But as hiring has cooled over the past couple of years it's become harder for young people or those re-entering the workforce to find jobs, leading to longer job searches or longer spells of unemployment. The Labor Department said the number of discouraged workers, who believe no jobs are available for them, rose by 256,000 last month to 637,000. When he was laid off earlier this year from his job as a communications manager for a city government in the Seattle area, Derek Wing braced for the worst. 'The word I would use is: 'terrifying''' to describe the experience, he said. 1:44 Canada's jobless rate ticks up as Trump's tariffs cause cracks in labour market Lots of big local employers like Microsoft continue to cut jobs. And he'd heard horror stories of people applying for jobs and then – crickets. Story continues below advertisement 'I had a couple of experiences where I would apply for a job and just feel like it was going out into the ether and never hearing back,'' he said. But Wing's fortunes turned quickly. He applied for an opening with Gesa Credit Union. Six weeks later – 'superfast in this economy'' — he had a job as a communications strategist for Gesa. The Fed is likely to stay put The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump's tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to combat an outburst of inflation. As price pressures eased last year, the Fed reversed course and cut rates three times in 2024. More cuts were expected. Story continues below advertisement But the central bank has turned cautious this year. 'Today's results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,″ Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. 2:04 Trump takes aim at Fed chair Jerome Powell, rattling markets After the jobs data was released Thursday, yields on U.S. Treasurys spiked immediately. Traders in the futures market now see less than a 7% chance that the Fed could cut its main interest rate at its next meeting later this month. That's down sharply from the nearly 24% chance they saw just a day earlier, according to data from CME Group. The outlook is cloudy Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump's policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs. Story continues below advertisement Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. Trump has increased the anxiety by imposing tariffs in an unpredictable way — announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones. The uncertainty has left businesses bewildered and hesitant to make decisions about hiring and investment. House at Wells Fargo expects monthly job growth to fall below 100,000 in the second half of the year. 'We're bracing for a much lower pace of job growth,″ she said. 'There's still a lot of policy uncertainty.″
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
May CPI preview: Inflation expected to tick higher as tariff uncertainty lingers
May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices increased at a slightly faster clip than in April. The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely watch for any signs that President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers pay. According to Bloomberg data, headline inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. Month-over-month prices are estimated to rise 0.2%, matching April's increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 2.9% over the past year in May, a slight acceleration from April's 2.8%. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of April's 0.2%. The report reflects the time period about a month after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shook markets and businesses. Since then, many reciprocal tariffs have been paused, but the 10% baseline duties for most countries remain in place. Mexico and Canada continue to face fentanyl-related tariffs, and industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain unchanged. Tariffs on China remain significant, with the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods hovering around 30%. "May's CPI report will be an important test of the speed and magnitude to which higher tariff rates are being passed along to the consumer," said the Wells Fargo economics team, led by Sarah House, in a preview note. House expects a modest rise in overall and core inflation from higher goods prices but doesn't foresee a big jump in this report. Still, economists there say the risk of higher prices later this year remains, a view shared by many on Wall Street. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation "Going forward, the impact of tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.35% over the next few months," Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs wrote, noting a "sharp acceleration" in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas said that although May's core inflation reading could register its strongest monthly gain since Q2 2023, hotter prints are expected in June and July. According to BNP, price increases from tariffs typically appear two to three months after implementation. However, broader uncertainty about the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes has weighed on the outlook. "The Trump administration's 'yo yo' approach to implementing tariffs and attendant uncertainties about their timing, form, and longevity may encourage firms to adopt a policy of strategic patience around increasing prices," Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note to clients last week. "This could potentially delay tariff-induced inflation, in addition to leading to an ultimately messier and more persistent response." Echoing this uncertainty, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic recently said constant tariff changes are "making it much harder to declare with any conviction that price increases from tariffs will be a one-time event." Markets still expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week. Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job openings rise more than expected in April despite tariff escalation
Job openings unexpectedly rose in the first month that a wide swath of President Trump's tariffs went into effect. After hovering near a four-year low in March, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.39 million jobs open at the end of April, an increase from the 7.2 million seen the month prior. The data comes as investors closely watch for signs that economic growth may be slowing further. The March figure was revised higher from the 7.19 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday's report to show 7.1 million openings in April. The April survey included data from the period immediately following Trump's announcement of steep reciprocal tariffs for a host of countries. Those were put on a 90-day pause on April 9, with 10% baseline tariffs remaining in effect. The data doesn't include any reaction to the US-China tariff pause in May. "A rise in job openings at the end of April shows labor demand is far from collapsing in the wake of policy uncertainty, but the modest gain still leaves openings declining on trend," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turnover remains subdued as businesses await more clarity on the outlook and workers await more job opportunities." The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.57 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.4 million made during March. The hiring rate ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%. In one sign that workers may be getting more cautious about labor market conditions, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved down slightly to 2% from 2.1% in March. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, reflecting what economists have described as a labor market in "stasis." Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth told Yahoo Finance that the slight tick down in quits in April shows "at the margin, a cooling off economy." The latest JOLTs data comes as market participants continue to closely watch economic data for any signs that Trump's tariff escalation is weighing on growth data. In April, tariffs appeared to have minimal impact on the headline labor market numbers as the US economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. Economists don't expect Friday's May jobs report to show significant signs of cooling either. Consensus expects a modest higher slowdown with nonfarm payroll additions projected to fall to 130,000 in May while the unemployment rate once again held flat at 4.2%. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
