Latest news with #SaulEslake
News.com.au
13 hours ago
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Worst policy change': State cashes in on GST carve out
The 'worst policy change in the 21st' century is set to blow out the national budget by $60bn and keep one state in the black for years to come. The goods and services tax (GST) carve up was back in focus this week as state treasurers came out with their budgets. Queensland, NSW, Western Australia, and the ACT all delivered budgets, with one state standing above them all. Mining-rich WA is in the black, with costs tipped to come in at $2.5bn less than predicted spending. The rest, budget deficits. WA Treasurer Rita Saffioti used her speech to focus on the relative strength of the economy compared with other states while warning of an uncertain global outlook. 'This budget is about fortifying WA amid global shocks,' she said. Independent economist Saul Eslake argues that WA has achieved a surplus for the last seven years on the back of soaring GST revenue. 'Between 2016 and 2025, Western Australia essentially had the country by the shorts and they squeezed as hard as they could,' Mr Eslake told NewsWire. 'I call it the worst public policy decision of the 21st century.' So what changed for the WA government to achieve seven years of surplus. WHY IS WA THE LUCKY STATE? Much of WA's success comes back to two changes. The first was a change to the GST in 2018, with Mr Eslake arguing that the then Liberal federal government wanted to appease WA where it held an overwhelming majority of federal seats. Then treasurer Scott Morrison announced a review of Australia's horizontal fiscal equalisation (HFE) system, which determines the distribution of goods and services tax (GST) revenue among states and territories. After a Productivity Commission inquiry, the system changed so that all states and territories received 70c for every dollar of GST raised in 2022-23. That figure increased to 75c a dollar in 2024-25. Before the new agreement, WA's GST share was 30 cents in the dollar. High iron ore prices at the time could have meant WA got just 15.6 cents of every dollar of GST raised. 'So what Morrison did was commission the Productivity Commission to do an inquiry into horizontal fiscal equalisation,' Mr Eslake said. 'The terms of reference for that were written in Mathias Cormann's office. It was a classic example of (fictional TV character) Sir Humphrey Appleby's advice that you never call an inquiry unless you know what it's going to say.' HFE's aim is to ensure that every state and territory should have an equal opportunity to provide public services. The key word is should, as states and territories are free to raise additional revenues how they please as well as fund their own state-based services. 'That principle is they are equalising the fiscal capacity of the states and territories,' Mr Eslake continued. 'And the point of that, it matters far less where you live when it comes to the quality of schooling your kids get, the quality of healthcare that you and your family get, the quality of policy or environment you get.' Mr Eslake used the example of the US, which does not have HFE, meaning different states have varying life outcomes. 'If we didn't have it, then Victorians and NSW people would have much better public services and pay lower taxes, all else being equal, than Tasmanians or South Australians,' Mr Eslake said. 'And I would argue, and traditionally most Australians have accepted, that's something that makes Australia a better and fairer place than America in particular.' The second major change for WA was the rise of China, or as Paul Keating famously said, the state got 'kissed on the a*se by a big Chinese rainbow'. This kissing, Mr Eslake argues, turned WA from being propped up into a donor state. '(In the early 2000s) WA got a bigger share of whatever federal grants were going around than they would have got if it was distributed equal per capita,' he said. 'Because the (Commonwealth) Grants Commission recognised that when gold was fixed at $35 an ounce, and iron ore was only trading at $20 a tonne and they weren't selling much of it, they couldn't raise much money for mineral oil fees, but they had a relatively high cost of providing services.' BUDGET BOTTOM LINE To get other states to support these changes, a no one is worse off provision was added, with the federal government topping up any shortfalls in GST revenues. This policy was also extended until 2029-2030 under the Albanese government. This NOWO provision turns a $9bn budget blow into a $60bn black hole. 'This is the biggest blowout in the cost of any single policy decision ever with the possible exception of the NDIS, which as (economist) Chris Richardson says is at least set up for a noble purpose,' Mr Eslake said. 'It's what is allowing Western Australia to run a budget surplus while everyone else, including the feds, are running a deficit. 'In the longer run, what it will mean is residents of Australia's richest state, WA, will have better public services and lower taxes than people who live in the eastern states, which I say is un-Australian.'
News.com.au
20-06-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Crocodile tears': Home loan change could add to worsening housing crisis
It's now easier for Australians to buy a home, but a key change to credit limits could push up the price of housing, a leading economist warns. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced on Thursday that Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debts would be excluded from the credit limit for prospective homebuyers from September 30. Independent economist Saul Eslake told NewsWire that the change's two most obvious effects would be to 'allow some people who'd buy a home anyway to buy a more expensive one and (to) allow some people who wouldn't have been able to buy a home because of their student debt' to do so'. 'The net effect of those two factors will be to increase the demand for housing,' he said.
 'The likely result is that it will, along with other things that governments are doing, put further upward pressure on the prices of property.' Mr Eslake said the change meant some people would be able to enter the housing market more quickly than otherwise but 'it would come at the expense of others'. 'The primary beneficiaries of this change will be those who will already own property will be able to sell it to people at higher prices than otherwise,' he said. 'That's consistent with the 60 years of evidence that we have, going back to the first homeowners grant scheme introduced by the Menzies government in 1964 that tells us that anything that allows Australians to pay more for housing than they'd be able to otherwise results in more expensive housing and a smaller proportion of the population owning it.' Mr Eslake added it was 'obvious' the money saved on HELP debt cuts would now be going towards a more expensive house. 'The reason that governments keep doing these things despite the evidence and despite all of the crocodile tears they routinely share about the difficulties faced by would-be first-home buyers is because they know that there actually aren't very many of them,' Mr Eslake said. 
 'On average, 110,000 a year, whereas there are 11 million people who own their own home. There are 2¼ million who own at least one investment property. That's an awfully much bigger number of votes for policies that keep house prices going up than there are for policies that might restrain the rate at which house prices keep going up.' Mr Eslake said the reason the housing crisis continued to worsen was 'because a majority of the population do not want it to be solved and politicians know that'. 
 'Until enough people my age, either out of an altruistic concern for the ability of their children and grandchildren to be able to do what they did, or perhaps more likely out of being pissed off at having to be the bank of mum and dad, until enough of them really want that to change, it isn't going to change.'
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Crocodile tears': Warning over key change
It's now easier for Australians to buy a home, but a key change to credit limits could push up the price of housing, a leading economist warns. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced on Thursday that Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debts would be excluded from the credit limit for prospective homebuyers from September 30. Independent economist Saul Eslake told NewsWire that the change's two most obvious effects would be to 'allow some people who'd buy a home anyway to buy a more expensive one and (to) allow some people who wouldn't have been able to buy a home because of their student debt' to do so'. 'The net effect of those two factors will be to increase the demand for housing,' he said. 'The likely result is that it will, along with other things that governments are doing, put further upward pressure on the prices of property.' Mr Eslake said the change meant some people would be able to enter the housing market more quickly than otherwise but 'it would come at the expense of others'. 'The primary beneficiaries of this change will be those who will already own property will be able to sell it to people at higher prices than otherwise,' he said. 'That's consistent with the 60 years of evidence that we have, going back to the first homeowners grant scheme introduced by the Menzies government in 1964 that tells us that anything that allows Australians to pay more for housing than they'd be able to otherwise results in more expensive housing and a smaller proportion of the population owning it.' Mr Eslake added it was 'obvious' the money saved on HELP debt cuts would now be going towards a more expensive house. 'The reason that governments keep doing these things despite the evidence and despite all of the crocodile tears they routinely share about the difficulties faced by would-be first-home buyers is because they know that there actually aren't very many of them,' Mr Eslake said. 'On average, 110,000 a year, whereas there are 11 million people who own their own home. There are 2¼ million who own at least one investment property. That's an awfully much bigger number of votes for policies that keep house prices going up than there are for policies that might restrain the rate at which house prices keep going up.' Mr Eslake said the reason the housing crisis continued to worsen was 'because a majority of the population do not want it to be solved and politicians know that'. 'Until enough people my age, either out of an altruistic concern for the ability of their children and grandchildren to be able to do what they did, or perhaps more likely out of being pissed off at having to be the bank of mum and dad, until enough of them really want that to change, it isn't going to change.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
West Australian
20-06-2025
- Business
- West Australian
‘Crocodile tears': Home loan change could add to worsening housing crisis
It's now easier for Australians to buy a home, but a key change to credit limits could push up the price of housing, a leading economist warns. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced on Thursday that Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debts would be excluded from the credit limit for prospective homebuyers from September 30. Independent economist Saul Eslake told NewsWire that the change's two most obvious effects would be to 'allow some people who'd buy a home anyway to buy a more expensive one and (to) allow some people who wouldn't have been able to buy a home because of their student debt' to do so'. 'The net effect of those two factors will be to increase the demand for housing,' he said. 'The likely result is that it will, along with other things that governments are doing, put further upward pressure on the prices of property.' Mr Eslake said the change meant some people would be able to enter the housing market more quickly than otherwise but 'it would come at the expense of others'. 'The primary beneficiaries of this change will be those who will already own property will be able to sell it to people at higher prices than otherwise,' he said. 'That's consistent with the 60 years of evidence that we have, going back to the first homeowners grant scheme introduced by the Menzies government in 1964 that tells us that anything that allows Australians to pay more for housing than they'd be able to otherwise results in more expensive housing and a smaller proportion of the population owning it.' Mr Eslake added it was 'obvious' the money saved on HELP debt cuts would now be going towards a more expensive house. 'The reason that governments keep doing these things despite the evidence and despite all of the crocodile tears they routinely share about the difficulties faced by would-be first-home buyers is because they know that there actually aren't very many of them,' Mr Eslake said. 'On average, 110,000 a year, whereas there are 11 million people who own their own home. There are 2¼ million who own at least one investment property. That's an awfully much bigger number of votes for policies that keep house prices going up than there are for policies that might restrain the rate at which house prices keep going up.' Mr Eslake said the reason the housing crisis continued to worsen was 'because a majority of the population do not want it to be solved and politicians know that'. 'Until enough people my age, either out of an altruistic concern for the ability of their children and grandchildren to be able to do what they did, or perhaps more likely out of being pissed off at having to be the bank of mum and dad, until enough of them really want that to change, it isn't going to change.'
Perth Now
20-06-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
‘Crocodile tears': Warning over key change
It's now easier for Australians to buy a home, but a key change to credit limits could push up the price of housing, a leading economist warns. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced on Thursday that Higher Education Loan Program (HELP) debts would be excluded from the credit limit for prospective homebuyers from September 30. Independent economist Saul Eslake told NewsWire that the change's two most obvious effects would be to 'allow some people who'd buy a home anyway to buy a more expensive one and (to) allow some people who wouldn't have been able to buy a home because of their student debt' to do so'. It's now a little easier to buy a home. NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard Credit: News Corp Australia 'The net effect of those two factors will be to increase the demand for housing,' he said. 'The likely result is that it will, along with other things that governments are doing, put further upward pressure on the prices of property.' Mr Eslake said the change meant some people would be able to enter the housing market more quickly than otherwise but 'it would come at the expense of others'. 'The primary beneficiaries of this change will be those who will already own property will be able to sell it to people at higher prices than otherwise,' he said. 'That's consistent with the 60 years of evidence that we have, going back to the first homeowners grant scheme introduced by the Menzies government in 1964 that tells us that anything that allows Australians to pay more for housing than they'd be able to otherwise results in more expensive housing and a smaller proportion of the population owning it.' Mr Eslake added it was 'obvious' the money saved on HELP debt cuts would now be going towards a more expensive house. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the government cries 'crocodile tears' for first-home buyers while introducing measures that increase housing prices. Chris Kidd Credit: News Corp Australia 'The reason that governments keep doing these things despite the evidence and despite all of the crocodile tears they routinely share about the difficulties faced by would-be first-home buyers is because they know that there actually aren't very many of them,' Mr Eslake said. 'On average, 110,000 a year, whereas there are 11 million people who own their own home. There are 2¼ million who own at least one investment property. That's an awfully much bigger number of votes for policies that keep house prices going up than there are for policies that might restrain the rate at which house prices keep going up.' Mr Eslake said the reason the housing crisis continued to worsen was 'because a majority of the population do not want it to be solved and politicians know that'. 'Until enough people my age, either out of an altruistic concern for the ability of their children and grandchildren to be able to do what they did, or perhaps more likely out of being pissed off at having to be the bank of mum and dad, until enough of them really want that to change, it isn't going to change.'
