Latest news with #Saxo
Kuwait Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Kuwait Times
Shares dither, oil spikes as investors mull Iran risks
LONDON: World shares slipped on Monday and oil prices rose towards five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with knock-on risks to global trade and inflation. Equities remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices whipsawed, rising to their highest since January during Asia trading, then falling back to flat, and were last up over 1 percent. US futures pointed towards a muted open on Wall Street. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1 percent while Nasdaq futures steadied. 'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation,' said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. 'Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell,' he said. European shares fell after midday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down over 0.3 percent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. 'That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 percent and averaging a 30 percent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $110 a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up over 82 cents to $77.83 and 85 cents to $74.68 a barrel, respectively. Gold also rose 0.4 percent to $3,381 an ounce. Resilience World share markets, especially in Asia, struggled. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 percent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 percent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 percent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 percent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The main buyers of Iranian oil are Chinese private refiners, some of whom have recently been placed on the US Treasury sanctions list. There is little evidence, however, that this has impacted flows from Iran to China significantly. The dollar firmed 1.25 percent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.5 percent to $1.1466. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.299. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about 2 basis points to 4.389 percent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. — Reuters
The Advertiser
5 days ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
Shares and oil dither, as investors mull Iran risks
World shares slipped and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with fallout risks to global trade and inflation. Markets remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices were up just 0.4 per cent, after rising as much as 5.7 per cent overnight. "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation," said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. "Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell," he said. European shares fell on Monday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2 per cent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $US110 ($A171) a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up 0.4 per cent at $US77.32 ($A120.45) and $US74.10 ($A115.43) a barrel, respectively. Gold also remained mostly steady at $US3365 ($A5242) an ounce. World share markets looked moderately resilient, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both up 0.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 per cent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 per cent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 per cent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The dollar firmed 1.25 per cent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.2 per cent to $1.1497. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.339. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about two basis points to 4.389 per cent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from Congress, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. World shares slipped and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with fallout risks to global trade and inflation. Markets remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices were up just 0.4 per cent, after rising as much as 5.7 per cent overnight. "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation," said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. "Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell," he said. European shares fell on Monday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2 per cent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $US110 ($A171) a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up 0.4 per cent at $US77.32 ($A120.45) and $US74.10 ($A115.43) a barrel, respectively. Gold also remained mostly steady at $US3365 ($A5242) an ounce. World share markets looked moderately resilient, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both up 0.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 per cent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 per cent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 per cent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The dollar firmed 1.25 per cent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.2 per cent to $1.1497. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.339. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about two basis points to 4.389 per cent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from Congress, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. World shares slipped and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with fallout risks to global trade and inflation. Markets remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices were up just 0.4 per cent, after rising as much as 5.7 per cent overnight. "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation," said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. "Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell," he said. European shares fell on Monday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2 per cent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $US110 ($A171) a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up 0.4 per cent at $US77.32 ($A120.45) and $US74.10 ($A115.43) a barrel, respectively. Gold also remained mostly steady at $US3365 ($A5242) an ounce. World share markets looked moderately resilient, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both up 0.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 per cent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 per cent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 per cent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The dollar firmed 1.25 per cent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.2 per cent to $1.1497. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.339. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about two basis points to 4.389 per cent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from Congress, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. World shares slipped and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following US attacks on its nuclear sites, with fallout risks to global trade and inflation. Markets remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices were up just 0.4 per cent, after rising as much as 5.7 per cent overnight. "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation," said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. "Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell," he said. European shares fell on Monday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2 per cent. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76 per cent and averaging a 30 per cent rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $US110 ($A171) a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and US crude were both up 0.4 per cent at $US77.32 ($A120.45) and $US74.10 ($A115.43) a barrel, respectively. Gold also remained mostly steady at $US3365 ($A5242) an ounce. World share markets looked moderately resilient, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both up 0.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9 per cent, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42 per cent lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1 per cent. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The dollar firmed 1.25 per cent against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.2 per cent to $1.1497. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.339. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about two basis points to 4.389 per cent. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from Congress, which will likely cover US tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on US core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Shares and oil dither, as investors mull Iran risks
World shares slipped on Monday and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs before retracing gains as investors awaited possible retaliation from Iran following U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites, with fallout risks to global trade and inflation. Markets remained restrained, with the dollar getting a modest safe-haven bid and no sign of a rush to bonds. Oil prices were up just 0.4%, after rising as much as 5.7% overnight. "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, maybe you don't understand the situation," said Paul Jackson Invesco's global head of asset allocation research. "Whether a lack of market reaction is naiveté, or a proper assessment of the situation, time will tell," he said. European shares fell on Monday with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2%. Some market participants hoped Iran might back down, with its nuclear ambitions curtailed, or even that regime change might bring a less hostile government to power there. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 km (21 miles) wide at its narrowest point and around a quarter of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies pass through it. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned that past episodes of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over time. Goldman Sachs warned prices could temporarily touch $110 a barrel should the critical waterway be closed for a month. For now, Brent and U.S. crude were both up 0.4% at $77.32 and $74.10 a barrel, respectively. Gold also remained mostly steady at $3,365 an ounce. RESILIENCE World share markets looked moderately resilient, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both up 0.2%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9%, dragged down by shares in Taiwan which closed 1.42% lower, while Chinese blue chips closed higher 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei eased 0.1%. Japan's manufacturing activity data on Monday showed a return to growth in June after nearly a year of contraction, but demand conditions remain. The dollar firmed 1.25% against the yen and was last at 147.885, at its highest since May 15, while the euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1497. The dollar index firmed marginally to 99.339. There was also no sign of a rush to the traditional safety of Treasuries, with 10-year yields rising about 2 basis points to 4.389%. Markets are still pricing only a slim chance the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on July 30, even after Fed Governor Christopher Waller broke ranks and argued for a July easing. Most other Fed members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have been more cautious on policy, leading markets to wager a cut is far more likely in September. At least 15 Fed officials are speaking this week, and Powell faces two days of questions from lawmakers, which will likely cover U.S. tariffs and the attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Among the economic data due are figures on U.S. core inflation and weekly jobless claims, along with early readings on June factory activity from across the globe. (Reporting by Nell Mackenzie and Wayne Cole; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Bernadette Baum)
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise amid hopes for a measured Iran response to attacks
US stock futures turned higher on Monday as oil prices wavered, with markets growing cautiously optimistic over Iran's next move after the US entered the Middle East conflict by striking its nuclear sites. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) climbed 0.3%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) rose roughly 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) edged up 0.1%. Stocks are reversing course as nerves calm over President Trump's decision to join Israel's attacks on Iran. Futures on Wall Street rose and oil jumped over 4% higher in the immediate rush to grapple with the strikes, but the prospect of a selloff is receding as investors assess Iran's likely response. "Markets appear to be treating the US strikes on Iran as a contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war. The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply or trade," Saxo strategist Charu Chanana told Reuters. Trump said late Saturday that the US had struck Iran's three main nuclear enrichment facilities, claiming the sites had been "totally obliterated" — a claim that has since been questioned. He threatened Iran with more attacks if the country did not quickly seek peace talks. The focus now is on Iran's next step — both militarily and diplomatically. Its foreign minister on Sunday said it reserves "all options," while its parliament has reportedly voted to block the Strait of Hormuz — though Iran's leaders have yet to make a final decision. The spike in crude prices is now unwinding as jitters about disruption to energy supplies ease. Experts are skeptical that Iran will follow through on its threat to close the waterway, through which around one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Brent crude (BZ=F) futures pulled back on Monday, trading at near $77 a barrel after jumping over $80 after the US strikes. US benchmark WTI crude futures (CL=F) also lost hold of gains, slipping to below $74 a barrel. Wall Street is watching oil prices closely, given a shock could have ramifications for the US economy, potentially triggering higher inflation that could spur the Federal Reserve to delay interest-rate cuts. Elsewhere in markets, gold (GC=F) ticked lower amid a softening in the haven demand that has driven this year's sharp rally. Economic data: Chicago Fed activity index (February); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US services PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US Composite PMI (March preliminary) Earnings: FactSet (FDS), KB Home (KBH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Trump just made the Fed's rate call even more complicated Opinion: Trump wages 2 wars — one with trade partners, one with Iran Why Iran could hold off blocking the Strait of Hormuz Oil erases spike in gains in wait for Iran's response Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical selloffs tend to fade fast Analysts react as markets brace for Iran's next move Dollar advances as investors brace for Iran response to US attacks BNY Mellon approached Northern Trust for merger: WSJ Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Wolfspeed (WOLF) stock fell 11% in premarket trading on Monday after announcing it plans to file for bankruptcy in the US under a new restructuring agreement with its creditors. The agreement would provide fresh financing and slash debt by nearly 70%. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) shares rose 4% before the bell after a report from The Wall Street Journal said that Bank of New York Mellon Corp had reached out to the asset and wealth manager and expressed interest in a merger. Tesla (TSLA) stock rose over 1% in premarket trading after rolling out its driverless taxi service to riders on Sunday. The debut of the robotaxi was introduced to a handful of riders, which included retail investors and social-media influencers in Tesla's hometown of Austin. Most investors will awake today searching on "Strait of Hormuz" after the weekend attacks from the US on Iran. For speed of analysis purposes, if this key oil shipping hub closes down (seems like it won't happen based on everything I am seeing this morning) it could really send oil prices skyrocketing. Here's what Goldman's team estimates: "If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down 10% for another 11 months, we estimate that Brent would briefly jump to a peak of around $110." Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oils prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Economic data: Chicago Fed activity index (February); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US services PMI (March preliminary); S&P Global US Composite PMI (March preliminary) Earnings: FactSet (FDS), KB Home (KBH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Trump just made the Fed's rate call even more complicated Opinion: Trump wages 2 wars — one with trade partners, one with Iran Why Iran could hold off blocking the Strait of Hormuz Oil erases spike in gains in wait for Iran's response Morgan Stanley: Geopolitical selloffs tend to fade fast Analysts react as markets brace for Iran's next move Dollar advances as investors brace for Iran response to US attacks BNY Mellon approached Northern Trust for merger: WSJ Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Wolfspeed (WOLF) stock fell 11% in premarket trading on Monday after announcing it plans to file for bankruptcy in the US under a new restructuring agreement with its creditors. The agreement would provide fresh financing and slash debt by nearly 70%. Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) shares rose 4% before the bell after a report from The Wall Street Journal said that Bank of New York Mellon Corp had reached out to the asset and wealth manager and expressed interest in a merger. Tesla (TSLA) stock rose over 1% in premarket trading after rolling out its driverless taxi service to riders on Sunday. The debut of the robotaxi was introduced to a handful of riders, which included retail investors and social-media influencers in Tesla's hometown of Austin. Most investors will awake today searching on "Strait of Hormuz" after the weekend attacks from the US on Iran. For speed of analysis purposes, if this key oil shipping hub closes down (seems like it won't happen based on everything I am seeing this morning) it could really send oil prices skyrocketing. Here's what Goldman's team estimates: "If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down 10% for another 11 months, we estimate that Brent would briefly jump to a peak of around $110." Gold pushed higher with the world in limbo as the US joined Israel's attack on Iran over the weekend. No formal response has been issued by Iran, with wider fallout expected. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,375.04 an ounce taking it to within $125 of its record high as investors sought safe-haven assets in a tumultuous economic situation. Gold then sank 0.5% despite broader haven demand. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Wall Street is closely watching escalating tensions in the Middle East after President Trump confirmed that the US launched a surprise strike on Iran's nuclear sites late Saturday, marking the country's official entry into the two-week-old conflict. Markets have held mostly steady in the aftermath of the escalation, although US stock futures fell across the board when trading opened Sunday evening. Additionally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices, often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, dropped over 1.6% to trade around $100,500 a coin. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures jumped, trading near $76 and $79 a barrel, respectively, as uncertainty looms over the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing threats from Iran. The latest surge follows oil's third consecutive week of gains on Friday. "We wouldn't be surprised to see this spark a risk-off reaction in US equities and will be watching the futures closely on Sunday evening and Monday morning," Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a Sunday evening note to clients. "It has been and remains our belief that the longer and broader the conflict becomes, the more challenging it could be for US equities," Calvasina added. "These escalations come at a tricky time for US equities, as the S&P 500 has looked fairly valued to us (perhaps a bit overvalued) from a fundamental perspective, with more room to run from a sentiment perspective." The analyst said her three main concerns include: first, the risk that rising national security uncertainty could weigh on equity valuations; second, the possibility that renewed geopolitical tensions could stall the recovery in sentiment that began after the early April tariff lows; and third, the potential for a spike in oil prices, which could fuel inflation concerns. In terms of sectors, Energy (XLE) tends to outperform when oils prices rise, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), along with Entertainment, Media, and Interactive Media, tend to lag behind the broader market, Calvasina noted. Citi analyst Stuart Kaiser agreed that sharply higher oil prices remain "the channel for geopolitical risks to impact stock markets," identifying crude prices "well above $80 a barrel" as a critical threshold for concern. Kaiser added that options markets are now pricing in a 10% chance that oil surges 20% over the next month, up from just 2.5% two weeks ago, reflecting mounting tail risks as the conflict deepens. Still, the analyst pointed to resiliency in stocks amid the volatility, saying, "Markets powered through extreme oil volatility and unstable geopolitical headlines to post a risk-on week." Oil prices rose Sunday evening, with investors taking stock of the US entry into the Israel-Iran conflict and how Iran might respond. Much of the focus has turned to Iran's status as a major oil producer and whether it might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Iran's parliament reportedly pushed for the strait's closure, though it left the ultimate decision up to Iran's top national security body. That may be by design, as Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul details: Read more here. Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. (NQ=F) futures dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%. Oil, both Brent (BZ=F) and WTI, rose over 3%. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Dollar advances as investors brace for Iran response to U.S. attacks
The U.S. dollar firmed on Monday as anxious investors sought safety, although the restrained moves suggest markets were waiting for Iran's response to U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites that have exacerbated conflict in the Middle East. The major moves were in the oil market, with crude prices hitting a five-month high, while global stocks slipped after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear sites and President Donald Trump raised the idea of regime change in the Islamic republic. In currency markets, the euro was 0.5% lower at $1.1469, while the Australian dollar, often seen as risk proxy, was last 1.1% weaker at $0.6382. That left the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, 0.6% higher at 99.29. Sterling was 0.5% lower at $1.338, while the New Zealand dollar sank 1.1% to $0.5895. Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the markets are in wait-and-see mode on how Iran responds, with more worries about the positive inflationary impact of the conflict than the negative economic impact. "The currency markets will be at the mercy of comments and actions from the Iranian, Israeli and U.S. governments," Kong said. "The risks are clearly skewed to further upside in the safe haven currencies if the parties escalate the conflict." The dollar was up 1.1% against the yen at 147.73 after touching a one-month high earlier in the session. The U.S. currency cast a shadow on other Asian currencies, including the rupiah, ringgit and the Philippine peso. Bank of America strategists said the dollar-yen can reprice higher if oil prices remain elevated, noting Japan imports almost all of its petroleum, more than 90% of which comes from the Middle East, while the U.S. is largely energy-independent. "We think USD/JPY works as a hedge against an escalation in geopolitical tension in the Middle East with positive carry," they said in a note. Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site. American leaders urged Tehran to stand down while pockets of anti-war protests emerged in U.S. cities. In a step towards what is widely seen as Iran's most effective threat to hurt the West, its parliament approved a move to close the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly a quarter of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waters that Iran shares with Oman and the United Arab Emirates. "Markets appear to be treating the U.S. strikes on Iran as a contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. "The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply or trade." While the dollar has reprised its role as a safe haven due to the rapid spike in geopolitical risks, the relatively muted moves suggest investors remain wary of going all in on the greenback. The U.S. currency has dropped 8.5% this year against its major rivals as economic uncertainty from President Donald Trump's tariffs and concern over their impact on U.S. growth led investors to scurry for alternatives.
