Latest news with #ScottTranter
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump slipping with Black voters after 2024 gains
President Trump is seeing signs that his approval is slipping with Black voters after notable gains with the demographic in last year's election. Recent polling suggests African American voters, already more disapproving of Trump than other demographic groups, have been souring on the president. Decision Desk HQ aggregates find more than70 percent disapprove of his job performance, while around a quarter approve, putting him in one of the weakest positions with the group since returning to the White House. Although Black voters overwhelmingly backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in November, Trump made significant inroads for a Republican, winning about 15 percent, according to a Pew Research Center study released last month — double the percentage he took in 2020. Republicans touted the development as a sign of their expanding coalition, but the latest numbers could signal risks for Trump and the GOP heading into the midterms and beyond. 'We've seen his overall approval rating go down. And that's got to come from somewhere. The African American vote is his newest vote, and that's probably going to be the first to go,' said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. Trump's overall approval rating sits underwater at a net score of negative 7 points, according to the latest averages, after enjoying above-water scores in the weeks after taking office. He hit a disapproval high in April, recovered slightly in May and early June, then dipped in July. Among African Americans, Trump's at a net rating of roughly negative 47 points in the DDHQ aggregate. Since mid-June, his disapproval has climbed from around 63 percent to roughly 72 percent — up nearly 20 points from his first couple of weeks back in office. Although losing some ground is to be expected, given Trump's overall score, 'the African American movement, it's measurable, it's significant,' Tranter said. 'He's about the same in where he is with Hispanics as he was on Inauguration Day, but it's very clear he's lost with African Americans.' Trump's November gains didn't occur in a vacuum or all at once. While the overwhelming majority of Black voters identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning, the party's decades-long advantage has weakened somewhat based on polling and some election results. Republicans attributed the improvements to a feeling among some Black voters that Democrats took their support for granted without specifically addressing their needs. 'President Trump's historic performance with Black voters in November marks a significant shift in our community, showing that more people are willing to look beyond party labels and focus on real, tangible solutions,' said Janiyah Thomas, who served as Black media director for Trump's 2024 campaign. She said these voters appreciated his focus on economic growth and criminal justice reform during his first term. Trump signed bipartisan legislation in 2018 called the First Step Act to reduce mandatory minimum sentences for certain crimes. Thomas argued 'false media narratives' overshadow Trump's achievements, and all Americans want 'real results: safer communities, better jobs, and opportunities to build a better future,' she said. Republican strategist Melik Abdul said an uptick in Black support for Republican candidates has happened since at least 2018, suggesting the change is less about Trump and more about the party. 'We focus so much of our attention at the national level that we ignore what's happening on the state level,' he said, pointing to the inroads that Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) made with Black voters in their 2022 reelection campaigns. But he argued Trump and the party have 'misread' what they should learn from the increase and wrongly presume that the new voters they gained will stay. He attributed the shift in 2024 to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, warning the votes for Trump aren't 'static' going into the midterms next year. Abdul said he doesn't read as much into any single approval rating poll because they are often in response to the news of the day, but he isn't surprised to see a drop in support given some developments in his second term, like the Department of Government Efficiency's cuts and concerns about Medicaid cuts as a result of the Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, which he signed into law Friday. 'You hear the concerns that people have around Medicaid, whether it personally will impact them or not,' he said. 'They hear it, and when you hear stories of people potentially losing Medicaid, obviously that's something that will impact poll numbers.' New polling from YouGov/The Economist, taken over the weekend, found 15 percent of Black voters approve of Trump, compared to 20 percent in an early June survey and 28 percent in early February. YouGov's tracker, last populated in mid-June, puts Trump's disapproval among Black Americans at roughly 86 percent, hitting the high point of his first-term ratings from the group. 'There are decisions that the Trump administration is making that could be circulating in Black communities, that could be factored in,' said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University with a focus on African American politics. She pointed to some of the administration's controversial economic moves — which have served as a drag on his overall numbers after his 2024 messaging on the economy was seen as key to his inroads with voters of color — but also to Trump's posture toward diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and his rhetoric on racial issues. 'You may be OK with America bombing Iran over nuclear weapons, but you may take issue with having heard that Pete Hegseth and the Defense Department pulled a lot of books about Black people off the shelves at Annapolis, or pulled down pages that honor Jackie Robinson [as] a veteran because it was deemed DEI,' Gillespie said, referencing a Pentagon-ordered review of books at the Naval Academy library and what the Defense Department said was the mistaken removal of a webpage about Robinson. Brown University political science professor Katherine Tate, however, suggested that while Trump's controversial moves on culture war issues appear to be strengthening Black opposition to Trump, it's not necessarily turning off Black supporters who sided with him in 2024. '[Black] Trump supporters are pleased with the deportations and tax cuts. I think Trump has moved these [Black voters] to the GOP,' Tate told The Hill in an email. 'While not a big number, it's more than the single digits of the 1980s. So that is a legacy for Trump: he moved some Blacks to his party.' Trump won the White House by making 'a lot of promises' and tapping into voter anger and confusion, said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright. Now, he's 'essentially giving Black America the middle finger' — but that doesn't mean Democrats don't have their work cut out for them to reclaim voters who turned to the GOP last year. 'We have to look down the field as Democrats,' Seawright said. 'Just because they don't like Trump doesn't mean that they're going to automatically wrap themselves around us.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Independent
09-07-2025
- Business
- The Independent
More than 70% of Black voters disapprove of Trump - erasing gains he made that helped win the 2024 race
Donald Trump appears to have lost of goodwill he had among Black voters during the 2024 presidential campaign, according to a new poll. Among African-Americans, 71.5 percent disapprove of Trump's presidency so far, while just 24.1 percent approve, according to a Decision Desk HQ average of polls current through July 7. The president hasn't gotten majority approval from Black voters since the end of his first week back in office, according to the aggregator, but the latest numbers represent a notable increase in discontent, after Trump had a 63.7 percent average approval rating among the voting demographic in mid-June. 'We've seen his overall approval rating go down. And that's got to come from somewhere. The African-American vote is his newest vote, and that's probably going to be the first to go,' Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk, told The Hill. The findings are in contrast to the president's surprising gains with voters of color during the 2024 race, where Trump won 15 percent of Black voters, up from 8 percent in 2020, and drew nearly even with Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters. The decline in support from Black voters could have a variety of causes. Many 2024 voters were inspired to cast their choice based on economic conditions and the record inflation under the Biden administration. So far, the Trump presidency has been marked with a sense of economic uncertainty and numerous revised and suspended deadlines for global tariffs. Trump's recently signed Big, Beautiful Bill spending package could be a mixed bag economically for Black voters, cutting taxes for the wealthy and likely causing millions to be ineligible for Medicaid, a low-income government health plan that disproportionately serves Black people. The Trump administration has also sought to end diversity and inclusion programs and funding across the federal government, ended race-conscious affirmative action at the US Naval Academy, scrubbed government websites and libraries of materials mentioning prominent Black figures in history, and renamed military bases for Confederate soldiers who fought to defend slavery in the U.S. Civil War, defending the move as 'important for morale.'
Yahoo
06-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's where Trump's approval ratings stand on key issues
President Trump's approval ratings remain underwater as he gets mixed reviews on his immigration crackdown, economic handling and foreign policy five months into his second administration. Trump's approval on the economy, one of his biggest strengths throughout 2024, has appeared to improve slightly after taking a hit from chaotic tariff moves and stock market losses earlier this year, though it largely remains negative. And support for his handling of immigration, while still his strongest issue, has shown signs of weakening as he pursues his campaign promise of mass deportations. At the same time, his favorability and job approval numbers have ticked up slightly since the Israel-Iran ceasefire took hold, noted Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) — signaling some recovery even as the figures remain significantly lower than they were when Trump took office. Here's what voters think of Trump's job performance and moves on major issues heading into the July 4 holiday weekend: Trump started his second term with some of his highest approval numbers but crossed into net-negative territory this spring amid blowback over his whiplash moves on tariffs. After hitting a disapproval high in April, his numbers started to recover slightly in May and early June, according to averages from DDHQ. Last month, though, his numbers sank again, with a roughly 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval rating. At the same time, DDHQ's tracker has seen some improvement for Trump, as last week his net approval reached minus-8 points. 'Both favorability and job approval numbers for President Trump had an uptrend since last week's ending of the Iranian conflict,' Tranter said. 'We are seeing a range for both of these metrics that is for now, higher than the range was in his first term.' 'So, over the course of last week, it's gone up. But it is certainly lower than it was post-inauguration.' Gallup's tracker puts Trump at a 40 percent approval rating as of early June, before developments including the U.S. strikes against Iran. That figure is not far from the 38 percent approval he logged in June of 2017, during his first term, but is well behind former President Biden's 56 percent at this point during the Democrat's first year. New polling from The Economist/YouGov conducted June 27-30 found Trump with a net approval of minus 11 points, down from a minus 4 point net approval at the end of May. An Emerson College Polling survey taken last week found a similar slide, with Trump once again underwater. In a positive sign for the president, his economic numbers appear to be in recovery mode after his aggressive trade moves earlier this year dealt a blow to his approval. A tracker from pollster Nate Silver shows Trump's approval rating on the economy has appeared to even out after a significant downturn in March and April, now sitting at a minus-12 net rating. Trump had a 43 percent approval rating on jobs and the economy in the latest Economist/YouGov numbers, on par with the 42 percent logged at the end of last month — though he fell on inflation and prices from a negative 15 points to a minus-24 net score. Americans' assessments of the economy improved slightly in Gallup's June Economic Confidence Index, climbing from minus 22 points in April to minus 18 points in May and then minus 14 points this month. Trump scored a major legislative win this week when Congress passed his 'big, beautiful bill,' sending the sweeping package that could add trillions to the federal deficit to Trump's desk. Approval for the bill has been underwater in some polling, and it remains to be seen how its passage could impact the president's broader numbers. Immigration, another issue that bolstered Trump through both of his presidential campaigns, continues to be one of his strong suits in his second term, but some new polls suggest support for his hard-line stances are slacking. 'He's lost ground,' Tranter said. 'Some polls show he is underwater, and some are back and forth. So I think the consensus is: We can argue whether or not he still has a net positive support on immigration or not, but we can say that it's gone down.' The Economist/YouGov poll had Trump's approval on immigration at a positive net 7 points at the end of May, before it flipped to a net negative 3 points at the end of June. In the first few months of his second term, Trump has spearheaded a deportation blitz and worked to end birthright citizenship as part of a major crackdown on immigration. After Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) workplace raids sparked protests in Los Angeles last month, Trump sent thousands of National Guard members and Marines to California as he clashed with Democrats over the issue. A new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist released this week found a minus-9 point net approval rating for Trump's immigration handling. A majority of Americans, or 54 percent, described ICE's actions to uphold immigration laws as having 'gone too far,' a figure bolstered largely by Democrats and independents. Meanwhile, 49 percent of surveyed Republicans described the actions as appropriate. Trump sent shock waves through the political world in late June when he announced that the U.S. had bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, inserting the U.S. into a tense conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. The president then brokered a fragile ceasefire that ended the 12-day conflict, and he has touted that the U.S. strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear threat, even as some have called that claim into question. 'He's riding high after Iran,' Tranter said of Trump, calling it 'a clear win' for the commander in chief as he pointed to Trump's approval uptick over the past week. But Americans in the PBS News polling were divided about the U.S. strikes, with a 50-50 split on agreement with the military action. More than 8 in 10 surveyed Republicans supported the strikes, compared with 45 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats. Three in 4 Americans also worried that Iran could retaliate after the U.S. strikes. Americans in CNN polling were even more disapproving, with 56 percent of those surveyed against and 44 percent for the strikes, and 6 in 10 worried that the strikes could increase the Iranian threat to the U.S. Meanwhile, Trump announced this week that Israel agreed to conditions that could finalize a 60-day ceasefire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza amid a conflict that has ravaged the Gaza Strip for nearly two years. If that deal goes through, it could mark the 'next theoretical big win' for Trump, Tranter said. Quinnipiac polling from mid-June found low approval for Trump's Israel-Hamas handling, at just 35 percent. He got similar marks, 34 percent approval, for his approach to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, a three-year conflict Trump has repeatedly claimed would not have happened on his watch. Trump struggled to make progress toward an end in fighting, lashing out at various points at both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
06-07-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Here's where Trump's approval ratings stand on key issues
President Trump's approval ratings remain underwater as he gets mixed reviews on his immigration crackdown, economic handling and foreign policy five months into his second administration. Trump's approval on the economy, one of his biggest strengths throughout 2024, has appeared to improve slightly after taking a hit from chaotic tariff moves and stock market losses earlier this year, though it largely remains negative. And support for his handling of immigration, while still his strongest issue, has shown signs of weakening as he pursues his campaign promise of mass deportations. At the same time, his favorability and job approval numbers have ticked up slightly since the Israel-Iran ceasefire took hold, noted Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) — signaling some recovery even as the figures remain significantly lower than they were when Trump took office. Here's what voters think of Trump's job performance and moves on major issues heading into the July 4 holiday weekend: Trump started his second term with some of his highest approval numbers but crossed into net-negative territory this spring amid blowback over his whiplash moves on tariffs. After hitting a disapproval high in April, his numbers started to recover slightly in May and early June, according to averages from DDHQ. Last month, though, his numbers sank again, with a roughly 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval rating. At the same time, DDHQ's tracker has seen some improvement for Trump, as last week his net approval reached minus-8 points. 'Both favorability and job approval numbers for President Trump had an uptrend since last week's ending of the Iranian conflict,' Tranter said. 'We are seeing a range for both of these metrics that is for now, higher than the range was in his first term.' 'So, over the course of last week, it's gone up. But it is certainly lower than it was post-inauguration.' Gallup's tracker puts Trump at a 40 percent approval rating as of early June, before developments including the U.S. strikes against Iran. That figure is not far from the 38 percent approval he logged in June of 2017, during his first term, but is well behind former President Biden's 56 percent at this point during the Democrat's first year. New polling from The Economist/YouGov conducted June 27-30 found Trump with a net approval of minus 11 points, down from a minus 4 point net approval at the end of May. An Emerson College Polling survey taken last week found a similar slide, with Trump once again underwater. In a positive sign for the president, his economic numbers appear to be in recovery mode after his aggressive trade moves earlier this year dealt a blow to his approval. A tracker from pollster Nate Silver shows Trump's approval rating on the economy has appeared to even out after a significant downturn in March and April, now sitting at a minus-12 net rating. Trump had a 43 percent approval rating on jobs and the economy in the latest Economist/YouGov numbers, on par with the 42 percent logged at the end of last month — though he fell on inflation and prices from a negative 15 points to a minus-24 net score. Americans' assessments of the economy improved slightly in Gallup's June Economic Confidence Index, climbing from minus 22 points in April to minus 18 points in May and then minus 14 points this month. Trump scored a major legislative win this week when Congress passed his 'big, beautiful bill,' sending the sweeping package that could add trillions to the federal deficit to Trump's desk. Approval for the bill has been underwater in some polling, and it remains to be seen how its passage could impact the president's broader numbers. Immigration, another issue that bolstered Trump through both of his presidential campaigns, continues to be one of his strong suits in his second term, but some new polls suggest support for his hard-line stances are slacking. 'He's lost ground,' Tranter said. 'Some polls show he is underwater, and some are back and forth. So I think the consensus is: We can argue whether or not he still has a net positive support on immigration or not, but we can say that it's gone down.' The Economist/YouGov poll had Trump's approval on immigration at a positive net 7 points at the end of May, before it flipped to a net negative 3 points at the end of June. In the first few months of his second term, Trump has spearheaded a deportation blitz and worked to end birthright citizenship as part of a major crackdown on immigration. After Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) workplace raids sparked protests in Los Angeles last month, Trump sent thousands of National Guard members and Marines to California as he clashed with Democrats over the issue. A new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist released this week found a minus-9 point net approval rating for Trump's immigration handling. A majority of Americans, or 54 percent, described ICE's actions to uphold immigration laws as having 'gone too far,' a figure bolstered largely by Democrats and independents. Meanwhile, 49 percent of surveyed Republicans described the actions as appropriate. Trump sent shock waves through the political world in late June when he announced that the U.S. had bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, inserting the U.S. into a tense conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. The president then brokered a fragile ceasefire that ended the 12-day conflict, and he has touted that the U.S. strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear threat, even as some have called that claim into question. 'He's riding high after Iran,' Tranter said of Trump, calling it 'a clear win' for the commander in chief as he pointed to Trump's approval uptick over the past week. But Americans in the PBS News polling were divided about the U.S. strikes, with a 50-50 split on agreement with the military action. More than 8 in 10 surveyed Republicans supported the strikes, compared with 45 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats. Three in 4 Americans also worried that Iran could retaliate after the U.S. strikes. Americans in CNN polling were even more disapproving, with 56 percent of those surveyed against and 44 percent for the strikes, and 6 in 10 worried that the strikes could increase the Iranian threat to the U.S. Meanwhile, Trump announced this week that Israel agreed to conditions that could finalize a 60-day ceasefire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza amid a conflict that has ravaged the Gaza Strip for nearly two years. If that deal goes through, it could mark the 'next theoretical big win' for Trump, Tranter said. Quinnipiac polling from mid-June found low approval for Trump's Israel-Hamas handling, at just 35 percent. He got similar marks, 34 percent approval, for his approach to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, a three-year conflict Trump has repeatedly claimed would not have happened on his watch. Trump struggled to make progress toward an end in fighting, lashing out at various points at both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Hill
29-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Warning signs emerge for Trump with independent voters
President Trump is seeing warning signs emerge from independent voters as his approval rating weakens with the key voting bloc. Trump's net approval among unaffiliated voters reached its lowest level of his second term on Tuesday, according to an aggregate from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), with his disapproval rating surpassing 60 percent for the first time since he took office. This has accompanied a wider decline in his overall approval rating throughout June. The shifts among independents could be linked in particular to disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, observers say. And they present an opportunity for Democrats as they struggle to rebuild their coalition heading into 2026 and beyond. 'Right now, the independents are the moving factor,' said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. 'He's holding his base, and he's staying steady not liked by Democrats, and so that's kind of why you see it.' A significant improvement among independents compared to the 2020 race was one key part of Trump's victory in last year's election. While he and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied in this group, according to a report released Thursday from Pew Research Center, that was a net 9-point shift toward him compared to four years earlier. Trump's approval rating has been relatively steady among Democrats and Republicans, with his numbers mostly staying in the mid-to-low teens for the former and the 80s for the latter. But the percentage of independents approving of his performance has fluctuated notably more. Tranter noted the movement is still relatively small compared to what shifts occurred historically, and independents only account for a small percentage of voters. 'A 3-to-4 point movement among his base is worth roughly the movement we saw in the independents in terms of vote share,' he said. 'Basically, we got to see massive movements like that in independents to really move the vote share.' 'He won independents, or had an edge on them in the battleground states in 2024,' he said. 'I don't know that it really matters a whole lot to him. It matters a whole lot more to the party, these congressionals going into 2026.' Some of the latest numbers across pollsters don't paint the brightest picture for Trump with voters who aren't as married to one party. Polls from YouGov/The Economist and Quinnipiac University show him more than 30 points underwater, while Emerson College shows him under by 12 points. One survey from a pollster associated with the Independent Center, which conducts research and works to engage independent voters, found only 37 percent of registered voters approve of his job performance. It also found declining support for him on the issues they considered most important ahead of his inauguration — lowering the debt, reducing inflation, cutting spending and easing political divisions. Lura Forcum, the center's president, said independents who supported Trump largely did because of economic concerns, but they aren't satisfied with the current progress. Economic indicators have been mixed throughout Trump's second term, with stocks rising and the S&P 500 hitting a record high Friday — but at the same time that a key inflation measure rose. The most recent update on gross domestic product from the first quarter of the year showed the economy shrank faster than initially thought. Forcum cited the result of the Democratic primary for the New York City mayoral race, in which democratic socialist Assembly member Zohran Mamdani won, as evidence that voters want a candidate who will do what's necessary to improve their financial situation, regardless of ideology. 'Voters want something to be done about the economy, and at this point, they are not really particular about the details,' she said. 'They are financially uncomfortable, and they're expecting candidates or elected officials to do something about it. And if you can't do that, you really, probably can't win them over at the end of the day.' She noted that the 2026 midterms are still more than a year away and time remains to win independents back, but Trump must 'deliver' on the issues that they have indicated are important. Republicans acknowledged the influence of independents in determining a candidate's success or failure and that Trump has time to improve, but they differed on how much the numbers are a warning sign. Veteran GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas said any time that a president has lower approval ratings, it can weigh down other candidates seeking to rise, even if it's only a difference of a few points. He said a Republican challenging Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) next year would have a much easier time if Trump's approval rating is 48 percent rather than 42 percent. As of Thursday, Trump's overall approval rating stands at 45.8 percent in the DDHQ average. Nicholas, who publishes the PA Political Digest newsletter, argued that economic information has improved as the stock market's past losses have been reversed. But he said the more time that passes in which independents don't approve of Trump's performance, the harder convincing them will be. 'So the longer you're around, even though it's only been barely, five, six months, the harder it becomes, because now you have to change people's minds, get them back to neutral and then move them to favorable,' he said. Republican strategist Constantin Querard said the state of the generic congressional ballot, in which voters are broadly asked if they would want to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress, gives him more optimism. Despite Trump's struggles, the parties are tied in the average as of Wednesday, with 45.1 percent each. The population breakdown of congressional districts generally gives Republicans a slight advantage, requiring Democrats to lead in the generic ballot by a few points to have a strong chance at winning control of the House, which will be the party's main goal in 2026. 'It's almost the more important number going in 2026 because Trump's not on the ballot,' Querard said. 'In 2024, Trump put together a coalition that was larger than the usual and made up somewhat different than the usual,' he added. 'So we did better with minority voters, independent voters, Black men, Hispanic men. There were a lot of gains into a lot of communities that the question is, does that sustain itself? And gosh, we're a long way from knowing that.' And analysts agreed a frustration with the person in charge has been a commonality across multiple administrations in the current political era. Querard said if the numbers hold for Trump's approval and the generic ballot, it may mean voters choose to stay home rather than vote. 'If they voted for Trump in November and then they disappear, that's not good, but it's still a lot different than if they switched from Republicans to Democrats,' he said. Tranter said Trump's current numbers are what Democrats would want to see in 2026, but it would need to stay — and fluctuations are common. 'This number is what they want to see 12 months from now,' he said. 'It's just not 12 months from now. Maybe it holds, but we'll see.'
