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Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Market bets on a more dovish Fed as Trump eyes Powell's replacement
The gulf between where the Federal Reserve projects interest rates will be by the end of 2026 and the more aggressive cutting financial markets expect by then is partly due to the expectation that U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell will be replaced by somebody more dovish next year, investors said. They, however, cautioned against assuming that a change of guard at the Fed would necessarily deliver as much policy easing as markets and U.S. President Donald Trump expect. In new economic projections released last week, Fed policymakers penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts by December 2026. That's two cuts short of the roughly 125 basis points of easing that fed funds futures suggest. The fed funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight lending, and serves as the Fed's main policy lever. It has stood in the 4.25%-4.50% range since the last easing in December. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 점점 커지는 모공들, 헛돈 쓰지말고 집에서 이렇게 해보세요 미그닥 Two of the projected quarter-percentage-point cuts were for 2025, with one more next year. While the difference stems from several factors, including expectations for how Trump's tariffs will affect the economy and inflation, hopes for a more accommodative Fed chief are part of the mix, investors said. "Powell's term is up in May, and he could be replaced by someone super friendly to the administration," Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital in Chicago. Live Events "I think this is probably a bigger factor than a lot of investors believe," Ablin said. Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision isn't imminent, a person familiar with the White House's deliberations said on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC any move to name a "shadow" chair would be ineffective. On Monday, traders in futures tracking the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), another key overnight rate, pushed the implied yield of futures contracts maturing in December 2026 65 basis points (bps) below those expiring in December 2025, the most negative that spread has ever been. This development shows that a deeper economic slowdown than expected is also being priced in. Powell told Congress this week that higher tariffs could boost inflation this summer, and that the U.S. central bank isn't rushing to cut rates. Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts , said on Tuesday that U.S. rates should be lowered by at least two to three percentage points. On Wednesday, he called Powell "terrible" in his latest attack on the central bank chief and said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. "The administration is now laying the groundwork - including with the 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' - to turbocharge economic, job, and investment growth, and it's high time for monetary policy to complement this agenda and support America's economic resurgence," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell's replacement by September or October, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Such a move would mean Powell would have a "shadow" for possibly the last six meetings of his tenure. A battered dollar took another beating on Thursday as investors fretted over fresh signs of an erosion in U.S. central bank independence. Still, such a move would back the market's more dovish view on future rate cuts. "It's a reasonable thesis that Trump will put up a person that will be more amenable to lower rates," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. FED INDEPENDENCE According to online prediction market Polymarket, the top candidates to replace Powell are Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh , White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Judy Shelton, a former Trump pick for the Fed's Board of Governors whose nomination was withdrawn during the Biden administration. Another prediction site, Kalshi, lists Waller as having the best chance to be nominated, closely followed by Warsh. Waller recently said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July. Meanwhile, Warsh suggested last month a possible pathway to lower policy rates and criticized the Fed's conduct of monetary policy. Still, investors warned that the head of the Fed is only one of 12 voting members at the central bank's monetary policy meetings. Part of the role is to build consensus with a large group of policymakers, making excessive reliance on that person's ability to deliver lower rates risky. "Obviously the chair has a very big influence on what the committee does, but the chair is not the committee," Siebert Financial's Malek said. "The chair will always try to seek a consensus," he said. Nor is it a given that the next Fed chief would risk the central bank's independence. "The most important part about the Fed is its neutrality," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "For the next Fed chair to get appointed, yes, you want to appease the president to get that nomination. But you still have to get everyone in that room to be behind a common narrative," Woods said. A rate-cutting trajectory not backed by data would hurt the next Fed chief's image, analysts said. "Whoever is appointed may have a cloud cast over his or her term that President Trump is pulling the strings," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "I'm not too worried that we're going back to a period where the chair is in the pocket of the president, like under (President Richard) Nixon."
Business Times
21-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Musk's xAI extends deadline and ups yield on bonds following lukewarm demand: source
[NEW YORK] Elon Musk's xAi extended the deadline and increased the yield it is paying on a US$5 billion debt sale following lukewarm reception from investors, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Friday (Jun 20). The deadline for investors to commit to buying into the deal, which includes bonds and loans, was extended from Tuesday to Friday, this source said, asking not to be named because the details of the deal were private. xAI also upped the yield on the US$3 billion in bonds and a US$1 billion term loan from 12 per cent to 12.5 per cent yield, they said. xAi sweetened the pot on a second term loan from 700 basis points to 725 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, known as SOFR. The term loan B is set to be priced at a discount of 96 US cents on the US dollar, the source said. xAI and Morgan Stanley, which is leading the deal, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. High-yield bonds paid an average yield to maturity of 7.6 per cent as at Thursday, according to ICE BofA High Yield Index. Investors are demanding more for xAI's debt because the company and its bonds are not yet rated, giving investors little visibility into the company's finances and increasing the risk. An increase in the yield offer could mean that investors had probably agreed to buy the debt only for a higher yield. The borrower also has lesser flexibility on pricing when investor demand is modest. If the deal closes on Friday, Morgan Stanley will distribute the securities to investors on Monday, this source said. The xAI offering, which was reported on Jun 2 as Musk and US President Donald Trump traded barbs over social media, did not receive overwhelming interest from high-yield and leveraged loan investors, Reuters reported earlier this week. One portfolio manager, who said he passed on the bonds, said a 'good deal' will typically be oversubscribed by three to four times. xAI would up the yields if it didn't attract enough investors, he added. Unlike Musk's debt deal when he acquired Twitter, Morgan Stanley did not guarantee how much it would sell or commit its own capital to the deal, in what is called a 'best efforts' transaction, according to one source familiar with the terms. xAi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. REUTERS
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Musk's xAi increases yield offer on $5 billion debt raise, source says
By Tatiana Bautzer NEW YORK (Reuters) -Elon Musk's xAi is increasing the yield it is offering on a $5 billion debt raise led by Morgan Stanley, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. xAi is offering to pay 12.5% yield on $3 billion in bonds, said the source who asked for anonymity to disclose non-public information. Previously, sources told Reuters the company had offered a 12% yield. xAi is also offering 12.5% fixed yield on a $1 billion term loan and set to price a $1 billion term loan B at 725 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, known as SOFR. The term loan B is set to be priced at a discount of 96 cents on the dollar, the source said. The initial offering on the securities was 12% on the fixed loan and 700 basis points over the SOFR on the floating rate loan. Junk-rated bonds paid an average yield to maturity of 7.602%, according to ICE BofA High Yield Index. The deadline for investor commitments was extended from Tuesday to Friday and allocations will be done one day after closing, the source said. If the deal closes on Friday, allocations will happen on Monday. An increase in the yield offer could mean that investors had probably agreed to buy the debt only for a higher yield. The borrower also has lesser flexibility on pricing when investor demand is modest. The xAI offering, which was reported on June 2 as Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump traded barbs over social media, did not receive overwhelming interest from high-yield and leveraged loan investors, Reuters reported earlier this week. Unlike Musk's debt deal when he acquired Twitter, Morgan Stanley did not guarantee how much it would sell or commit its own capital to the deal, in what is called a "best efforts" transaction, according to one person familiar with the terms. xAi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
The Star
20-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Musk's xAi increases yield offer on $5 billion debt raise, source says
FILE PHOTO: A 3D-printed miniature model of Elon Musk and the xAI logo are seen in this illustration taken January 23, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo NEW YORK (Reuters) -Elon Musk's xAi is increasing the yield it is offering on a $5 billion debt raise led by Morgan Stanley, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. xAi is offering to pay 12.5% yield on $3 billion in bonds, said the source who asked for anonymity to disclose non-public information. Previously, sources told Reuters the company had offered a 12% yield. xAi is also offering 12.5% fixed yield on a $1 billion term loan and set to price a $1 billion term loan B at 725 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, known as SOFR. The term loan B is set to be priced at a discount of 96 cents on the dollar, the source said. The initial offering on the securities was 12% on the fixed loan and 700 basis points over the SOFR on the floating rate loan. Junk-rated bonds paid an average yield to maturity of 7.602%, according to ICE BofA High Yield Index. The deadline for investor commitments was extended from Tuesday to Friday and allocations will be done one day after closing, the source said. If the deal closes on Friday, allocations will happen on Monday. An increase in the yield offer could mean that investors had probably agreed to buy the debt only for a higher yield. The borrower also has lesser flexibility on pricing when investor demand is modest. The xAI offering, which was reported on June 2 as Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump traded barbs over social media, did not receive overwhelming interest from high-yield and leveraged loan investors, Reuters reported earlier this week. Unlike Musk's debt deal when he acquired Twitter, Morgan Stanley did not guarantee how much it would sell or commit its own capital to the deal, in what is called a "best efforts" transaction, according to one person familiar with the terms. xAi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. (Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer; Additional reporting by Matt Tracy; Editing by Mark Porter, Alexandra Hudson)
Time of India
20-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
xAI increases yield offer on $5 billion debt raise: Source
Elon Musk's xAI is increasing the yield it is offering on a $5 billion debt raise led by Morgan Stanley , a source with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. xAI is offering to pay 12.5% yield on $3 billion in bonds, said the source who asked for anonymity to disclose non-public information. Previously, sources told Reuters the company offered a 12% yield. The AI startup is also offering 12.5% fixed yield on a $1 billion term loan and set to price a $1 billion term loan B at 725 basis points over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, known as SOFR. The term loan B is set to be priced at a discount of 96 cents on the dollar, the source said. The deadline for investor commitments was extended from Tuesday to Friday and allocations will be done on Monday, the source said. xAI and Morgan Stanley did not immediately comment on the matter. Live Events
