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The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map
The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

Politico

time3 days ago

  • Politics
  • Politico

The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

Here are the five biggest questions still hanging over the Senate race: Can Democrats get their dream recruits? Democrats are holding their breath for Roy Cooper and Janet Mills to decide if they'll run for Senate in North Carolina and Maine — a former and current governor, respectively, who could dramatically improve their party's chances to flip those swing seats. Their outstanding decisions have frozen recruitment in both states, signaling the party's strong preference for them. The odds look better for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper's top political strategist told POLITICO earlier this month that the former governor was 'strongly considering a run' and 'will decide in the coming weeks.' North Carolina Democrats have argued that Cooper's aw-shucks brand coupled with his strong fundraising network would instantly transform the now-open race. Tillis announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his tax-and-spend megabill. That 'puts a lot more pressure on Cooper to run,' said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, as he is 'heads and shoulders above every other candidate.' But Cooper hasn't cleared the field yet. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Senate primary in April, and he demurred when asked if he'd exit if Cooper jumped in. Rep. Don Davis is also eyeing the race. Republicans have yet to see a major candidate step up, although the president's daughter-in-law Lara Trump has expressed interest. National Democrats are still working to woo Mills, but her interest in challenging Sen. Susan Collins is less clear. Mills, who is 77 and won reelection in 2022 by 13 percentage points, told a Maine outlet in April that 'I'm not planning to run for another office' but added that 'things change week to week, month to month.' Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his bid against Collins. But some Maine Democrats are concerned that the race hasn't yet attracted bigger name contenders. Can a bloody Republican primary in Texas put the state on the map in November? Republicans have a messy — and expensive — primary on their hands down in Texas. Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed the high-stakes intraparty brawl with Trump — as part of a broader discussion on the 2026 midterm map during a recent White House meeting — where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is primarying Sen. John Cornyn. GOP leaders have been privately trying to sway Trump for months to back Cornyn, arguing that his conservative bona fides match the president's agenda and he would be a safer bet in November. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks to press outside of his office at the Hart Senate Office Building on April 28, 2025, in Washington. |Cornyn got a break after Paxton's wife announced she was filing for divorce on 'biblical grounds,' with his allies quickly seizing on the news. And he was able to get in some face time with Trump on Friday when he traveled with the president back to Texas. But so far, Trump appears poised to remain on the sidelines for a while longer as polling has shown Cornyn consistently trailing Paxton in a primary. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is also mulling a Senate run, traveled with Trump on Friday as well.

Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache
Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache

Yahoo

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache

The decision by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) to not seek reelection next year could give Republican leaders headaches as he looks forward to wielding his newfound political freedom. Tillis announced his retirement amid the GOP's dash to pass the party's tax and spending package, having cropped up as a surprise 'no' vote in the final weeks of negotiations. Now, questions are swirling about what's to come from Tillis, who had been a reliable ally of Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) during his tenure as Republican leader, as he faces the next year-and-a-half untethered from what was to be a tough electoral fight and free to speak his mind. That could spell trouble for leaders as they work to keep the conference united on government funding, judicial nominations and other top priorities. 'You could have a member of the Senate who is going to support you 95 percent of the time, or you can have a member of the Senate that's going to support you, but not near 95 [percent], and more free to speak and say what they think,' said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a top ally of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). 'And now, I think you have a member who is here who is more interested in clearly speaking out and less reserved in what they have for criticisms.' 'It's an independence that gives folks the opportunity to be a bit more direct with their comments,' Rounds continued. 'I think you'll find him to be a little bit more outspoken. A little less reserved. But I expect him to continue to participate.' Tillis, in his retirement announcement, said he had no intention of being a wallflower. 'I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability,' he said. And early indications are Tillis has become more freewheeling than he had been prior. The two-term senator scorched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in an interview with CNN this week, saying he would not vote for Hegseth today having seen how he's operated. Tillis had reservations about the nomination in January after reports of sexual harassment, public drunkenness and workplace mismanagement emerged. But he cast the deciding vote to put Hegseth over the finish line. 'With the passing of time, I think it's clear he's out of his depth as a manager of a large, complex organization,' Tillis told CNN's Jake Tapper. Tillis is also no longer an official member of Republican leadership, having been replaced on Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso's (R-Wyo.) whip team by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who is viewed as an up-and-comer in the conference. Barrasso told The Hill that the decision was ultimately up to Tillis. The North Carolina lawmaker also told Tapper that he will also oppose any future Trump nominees who have expressed support for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Earlier this year, he helped sink the nomination of Ed Martin to serve as the top federal prosecutor for Washington, D.C., over his defense of Capitol rioters. His approach to nominations, especially, could give Trump and Thune fits as they start to marshal through judicial picks. Tillis serves on the Senate Judiciary Committee and could oppose any particularly partisan choice. The committee is split 12-10 between Republicans and Democrats, meaning Tillis could single-handedly bottle up a nominee — or at least force Thune to go through the lengthy process of forcing a nomination to the floor. 'I certainly think it's a worry. … Do you think Thom Tillis is voting for Nick Adams? Let's run the math on that nomination already,' one Senate GOP aide, referring to the self-described 'alpha male' MAGA influencer Trump nominated to be the ambassador to Malaysia. The aide noted that it's incredibly unlikely that the foursome of Tillis, McConnell, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) back Adams. 'You might as well throw that nomination in the trash,' the aide continued. 'You're going to have examples like that where you're going from three 'no' votes, which is winnable on issues like that, versus you have four 'no' votes that don't care about the political fallout from the right.' The aide also pointed to Tillis's concerns with cuts to the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) that are currently included in legislation set to hit the floor next week. Tillis told reporters this week that he is 'generally going to be a 'yes' vote' on that bill, which seeks to claw back money already allocated in the fiscal year 2025 spending bill, though he is still looking into the PEPFAR cuts. And Tillis already demonstrated his political independence with his vote against Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' last month. Tillis had agitated against the bill prior to the vote, raising the alarm about Medicaid cuts and political fallout, but some of his colleagues privately doubted he would follow through, pointing to his vote on Hegseth. Instead, Tillis voted against a bill packed full of most of Trump's domestic priorities, which the president had been pushing hard for months. Despite his newly-discovered political freedom, Tillis remains an ally of leadership and is ever-cognizant of the landmines they must manage, having been a part of McConnell's team in recent years and serving as Speaker in his home state prior to his 2014 Senate victory. Top leaders still expect him to play an important role moving forward despite his recent untethering. Thune indicated that while the Tar Heel State senator has 'strong views' and is an 'independent thinker,' he remains a team player they will rely on. Tillis was like-minded. 'I'm never going to do anything to undermine my conference and I'm never going to surprise my conference. … I'm not that kind of guy,' Tillis told The Hill, saying it's 'not his style.' 'I mean, if you've got to surprise or jam your conference to get something done, you're a pretty shitty legislator,' he added. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache
Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache

The Hill

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • The Hill

Tillis freedom to ‘call balls and strikes' hands GOP leaders fresh headache

The decision by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) to not seek reelection next year could give Republican leaders headaches as he looks forward to wielding his newfound political freedom. Tillis announced his retirement amid the GOP's dash to pass the party's tax and spending package, having cropped up as a surprise 'no' vote in the final weeks of negotiations. Now, questions are swirling about what's to come from Tillis, who had been a reliable ally of Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) during his tenure as Republican leader, as he faces the next year-and-a-half untethered from what was to be a tough electoral fight and free to speak his mind. That could spell trouble for leaders as they work to keep the conference united on government funding, judicial nominations and other top priorities. 'You could have a member of the Senate who is going to support you 95 percent of the time, or you can have a member of the Senate that's going to support you, but not near 95 [percent], and more free to speak and say what they think,' said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a top ally of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). 'And now, I think you have a member who is here who is more interested in clearly speaking out and less reserved in what they have for criticisms.' 'It's an independence that gives folks the opportunity to be a bit more direct with their comments,' Rounds continued. 'I think you'll find him to be a little bit more outspoken. A little less reserved. But I expect him to continue to participate.' Tillis, in his retirement announcement, said he had no intention of being a wallflower. 'I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability,' he said. And early indications are Tillis has become more freewheeling than he had been prior. The two-term senator scorched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in an interview with CNN this week, saying he would not vote for Hegseth today having seen how he's operated. Tillis had reservations about the nomination in January after reports of sexual harassment, public drunkenness and workplace mismanagement emerged. But he cast the deciding vote to put Hegseth over the finish line. 'With the passing of time, I think it's clear he's out of his depth as a manager of a large, complex organization,' Tillis told CNN's Jake Tapper. Tillis is also no longer an official member of Republican leadership, having been replaced on Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso's (R-Wyo.) whip team by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who is viewed as an up-and-comer in the conference. Barrasso told The Hill that the decision was ultimately up to Tillis. The North Carolina lawmaker also told Tapper that he will also oppose any future Trump nominees who have expressed support for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Earlier this year, he helped sink the nomination of Ed Martin to serve as the top federal prosecutor for Washington, D.C., over his defense of Capitol rioters. His approach to nominations, especially, could give Trump and Thune fits as they start to marshal through judicial picks. Tillis serves on the Senate Judiciary Committee and could oppose any particularly partisan choice. The committee is split 12-10 between Republicans and Democrats, meaning Tillis could single-handedly bottle up a nominee — or at least force Thune to go through the lengthy process of forcing a nomination to the floor. 'I certainly think it's a worry. … Do you think Thom Tillis is voting for Nick Adams? Let's run the math on that nomination already,' one Senate GOP aide, referring to the self-described 'alpha male' MAGA influencer Trump nominated to be the ambassador to Malaysia. The aide noted that it's incredibly unlikely that the foursome of Tillis, McConnell, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) back Adams. 'You might as well throw that nomination in the trash,' the aide continued. 'You're going to have examples like that where you're going from three 'no' votes, which is winnable on issues like that, versus you have four 'no' votes that don't care about the political fallout from the right.' The aide also pointed to Tillis's concerns with cuts to the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) that are currently included in legislation set to hit the floor next week. Tillis told reporters this week that he is 'generally going to be a 'yes' vote' on that bill, which seeks to claw back money already allocated in the fiscal year 2025 spending bill, though he is still looking into the PEPFAR cuts. And Tillis already demonstrated his political independence with his vote against Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' last month. Tillis had agitated against the bill prior to the vote, raising the alarm about Medicaid cuts and political fallout, but some of his colleagues privately doubted he would follow through, pointing to his vote on Hegseth. Instead, Tillis voted against a bill packed full of most of Trump's domestic priorities, which the president had been pushing hard for months. Despite his newly-discovered political freedom, Tillis remains an ally of leadership and is ever-cognizant of the landmines they must manage, having been a part of McConnell's team in recent years and serving as Speaker in his home state prior to his 2014 Senate victory. Top leaders still expect him to play an important role moving forward despite his recent untethering. Thune indicated that while the Tar Heel State senator has 'strong views' and is an 'independent thinker,' he remains a team player they will rely on. Tillis was like-minded. 'I'm never going to do anything to undermine my conference and I'm never going to surprise my conference. … I'm not that kind of guy,' Tillis told The Hill, saying it's 'not his style.' 'I mean, if you've got to surprise or jam your conference to get something done, you're a pretty shitty legislator,' he added.

Difficult passage for budget in US Senate: 51-50
Difficult passage for budget in US Senate: 51-50

Gulf Today

time03-07-2025

  • Business
  • Gulf Today

Difficult passage for budget in US Senate: 51-50

The US Senate passed President Donald Trump's controversial 'One Big Beautiful Bill', with cuts for social programmes like Medicaid, which will leave 11.8 million people with medical cover by 2030, and tax breaks for the rich. There was a long drawn-out 27-hour long to-and-fro with opposition coming from Republican senators. But Senate Majority leader John Thune had to run a tight ship as it were in support of a bill which went through the laborious process of umpteen amendments, which were rejected through a cumbersome legislative procedure. Three of the Republican senators refused to fall in line. Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine held out. So the final voting score was 50-51, with Vice President casting his tie-breaker vote. The Vice President is also the head of the Senate. The bill now goes back to the House of Representatives for the final vote. Republican Senator from Alaska, Lisa Murkowski voted for the bill but she did not hold back from expressing her dissent to and, opposition to, the bill. She said, 'Let's not kid ourselves. This has been an awful process, a frantic rush to meet an artificial deadline, that has tested every limit of this institution.' She told American television news network NBC, 'Do I like this bill? No. I know that in many parts of the country, there are Americans who are not going to be advantaged by this bill. I don't like that.' Majority leader Thune claimed after the passing of the bill, 'It's been a long road to get to today. Now we're here, permanently extending tax relief for hard-working Americans.' Senate Minority leader and Democrat Chuck Schumer nailed his point. He said, 'In one fell swoop, Republicans passed the biggest tax break for billionaires ever seen, paid for by ripping away healthcare from millions of people.' There were many contentious provisions in the bill. One of them was the removal of subsidy to electric cars – a blow to his former confidante Elon Musk and his Tesla – and subsidy for solar and wind energy projects. This is going to hurt many entrepreneurs who had invested in the sunrise sector. Trump is firmly opposed to the climate change thesis, and he does not want to help in any way any measure to help the emergence of a green economy even as most other countries are adopting the mitigatory measures. Despite Republican majorities in the two Houses of the Congress, it has not ben easy for President Trump to push through his legislative agenda. And as has been witnessed in the Senate, the opposition to his measures was not coming from the Democrats alone, but from Republicans as well. It is indeed the case that the Republican majorities are narrow, and it is not easy to push through legislation without a second thought as it were. Trump does not have the political sagacity to negotiate with people who do not agree with his point-of-view, and make the necessary compromises to get the legislation through. Trump does not like any opposition. Second, he does not believe in talking over things, and stepping back a step or two to get his policies accepted. It is this that poses difficulties for him. His supporters have a tough task. They have to mow down the opposition. It is not always an easy thing to do. Senate Majority leader Thune had a tough time in getting the Budget passed in the Senate, and he is a relieved man more than a victorious leader. Trump did not seem to learn much from his experience in the first term as president.

Carveouts for Alaska and tax breaks for whalers: How Lisa Murkowski got to yes on Trump's agenda bill
Carveouts for Alaska and tax breaks for whalers: How Lisa Murkowski got to yes on Trump's agenda bill

Yahoo

time01-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Carveouts for Alaska and tax breaks for whalers: How Lisa Murkowski got to yes on Trump's agenda bill

The fate of President Donald Trump's domestic agenda was in Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski's hands – and she used that leverage to force a series of changes that will deliver more federal dollars to her state. The Senate passed Trump's so-called 'big, beautiful bill' on Tuesday, after a 26-hour marathon of negotiations and amendments during which Murkowski, as she put it later, 'struggled mightily' to soften the biggest funding blows to Alaska before ultimately casting a vote that guaranteed its passage. The changes she won, including some crucial carveouts for Alaska, were a window into how such a massive piece of legislation comes together in Washington. The closely divided Senate means figures like Murkowski – a moderate with a history of defying Trump, elected by a state with an independent streak – wield enormous power. 'This is probably the most difficult and agonizing legislative 24-hour period that I have encountered,' Murkowski told reporters afterward. 'And I've been here quite a while, and you all know I've got a few battle scars underneath me. But I think I held my head up and made sure that the people of Alaska are not forgotten in this.' Murkowski's role as the deciding vote on the bill that extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts, funds his immigration crackdown, imposes work requirements on social safety net programs and more, came fully into view in recent days. Republicans, who control the Senate by a 53-47 margin, believed they'd already lost Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who objected to the bill's debt ceiling increase, and were doubtful about Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who objected to Medicaid spending cuts and is up for reelection next year in a moderate state. Then, over the weekend, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis announced he would not seek reelection and delivered a fiery speech lambasting the Medicaid cuts and warning Trump he's been 'misinformed' about their impact. That meant the GOP had no more votes to spare. The bill's only chance at passage was a 50-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie. Suddenly, much of the party's focus was on Murkowski. For the next 48 hours, the Alaska senator was the subject of frenzied lobbying by some of Washington's most powerful Republicans, including Vance, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and committee chairmen. Behind the scenes, staffers were rewriting key pieces of the bill to win her support – making changes on Medicaid, nutritional assistance and even adding a tax break for whaling captains. South Carolina Sen. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of Trump's closest Capitol Hill allies, spent hours courting Murkowski's vote, including long huddles on the Senate floor at all hours. That included a tense conversation just ahead of the vote, in which Graham said Murkowski vented her frustrations about the massive scope and complexity of the package but in the end, he said, didn't want it all to fail. 'I just said, in my talk with her, 'Number one, I'm frustrated too,'' Graham recalled of their conversation on the floor. He went on to stress other critical provisions of the bill, including money for the military. Murkowski had praised the added Coast Guard funds. Graham's main message to her, he said, was this: 'Are you good? If you're not good, tell me why and see if we can fix it.' Murkowski has long telegraphed her concerns with the bill. In a town hall last month in Cordova – a port town accessible only by plane or ferry – she praised some elements of the bill but warned against federal funding cuts to social safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps. Some lawmakers, including Murkowski and Collins, were particularly worried about the blow Medicaid cuts would deliver to rural hospitals – many of which are struggling, with some closing already. 'Many of us are looking at that and saying, it makes no sense to put a greater burden on the most vulnerable in our communities when it comes to health care and access to health care,' Murkowski said at the town hall, The Cordova Times reported. 'I have made clear very early on that we cannot move forward with a bill that makes cuts to Medicaid.' One obstacle for Republicans courting Murkowski's vote was the Senate parliamentarian, who rules on whether provisions of bills violate the chamber's budget rules. Shortly before the final vote, Senate leaders were still trying to secure more funding for Alaska's rural hospitals – after already doubling a fund they'd added for rural hospitals, from $25 billion to $50 billion, to be disbursed over five years. Staffers were still writing in the margins of the bill, trying to find a way to make the rural hospital fund more appealing to Murkowski, two sources familiar with the matter said. Collins also lobbied to beef up the rural hospital fund, but it was not enough to win her vote. It was one of many attempts to shore up more funding for the state's Medicaid recipients or providers that failed to pass muster with the parliamentarian. At first, Republicans devised a provision that increased Medicaid funding for states based on poverty rates. It was crafted in a way that would have applied only to Alaska and Hawaii. That, the parliamentarian said, violated Senate rules. Next, Republicans tried to use population density to apply increased Medicaid funding to Alaska and more rural states, including Montana, North and South Dakota and Wyoming, one of the sources said. It was ruled out of order. Ultimately, there might be some wiggle room to help Alaska, after all. A GOP source familiar with the rural hospital fund said that while some of its funding will be doled out based on a formula, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services also has discretion and flexibility to weight other factors that will allow them to steer where the money goes. In addition to the fight on Medicaid, Murkowski won a huge victory on a provision that delays the requirement that states with high payment error rates start contributing to the cost of food stamp benefits. The original measure would make states with error rates of 6% or higher pick up between 5% and 15% of the tab. But the states with the largest error rates would get another year or two to implement the provision, said Ty Jones Cox, vice president for food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Currently, 10 states, including Alaska, have error rates that would qualify for the delay. Murkowski also won a change in the expansion of the work requirement for food stamps. Alaska, as well as Hawaii, got two other carveouts: One would allow these states to waive all work requirements based on high unemployment rates. For other states, the package limits such waivers. The other carveout would allow either state to request a temporary waiver for residents from the work requirement if the US Agriculture secretary determines the state is making a 'good faith' effort to implement the mandate. She also secured an increase in a special tax deduction for whaling boat captains. Murkowski told reporters she 'struggled mightily' with the impacts of cutting Medicaid and food stamp benefits in her state. 'That weighs very, very heavily, and so what I tried to do was to ensure that my colleagues understood what that means when you live in an area where there are no jobs. It is not a cash economy. And so I needed help and I worked to get that every single day,' she said. Murkowski is a Republican, but one who owes less politically to Trump and the party's establishment than most in her party. After losing the GOP primary during her reelection bid in 2010, she ran as a write-in candidate – and won the general election. A decade later, Trump had said he'd back anyone with 'a pulse' against Murkowski in her primary. Former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner Kelly Tshibaka ran, with endorsements from Trump and the Alaska Republican Party. But Murkowski won again, earning more first-place votes than Tshibaka in both the primary and general election in Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. Murkowski has also mused aloud multiple times about the possibility of leaving the GOP to become an independent, including in a podcast interview released last week. Her hard-nosed negotiating over the bill containing Trump's domestic agenda evoked memories of other carve-outs designed to win over individual lawmakers when congressional leaders had no votes to spare. In 2010, when Senate Democrats held 60 seats and could spare zero votes to break a filibuster and pass the Affordable Care Act into law, they sought to earn Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson's support with the 'Cornhusker Kickback' – a provision that permanently exempted his state from paying for its share of the law's Medicaid expansion. Seven years later, as the GOP sought to repeal Obamacare during Trump's first term in the White House, Senate Republicans tucked into their bill what some called the 'Polar Payoff.' It was a subsidy for the individual health insurance marketplaces that was designed only to benefit Alaska. (Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer derisively used the same phrase to describe the latest deal for Murkowski.) Neither of those earlier carve-outs became law. And it's not yet clear whether the changes Murkowski negotiated will remain in place as Trump's so-called big, beautiful bill returns to the House. Adding to the uncertainty, the Alaska senator stunned some of her own colleagues in both chambers when she told reporters Tuesday, shortly after the bill's passage, that she hopes the House amends it and returns it to the Senate. 'We do not have a perfect bill, by any stretch of the imagination,' she said. 'My hope is that the House is going to look at this and recognize that we're not there yet. And I would hope that we would be able to actually do what we used to do around here, which is work back and forth between the two bodies to get a measure that's going to be better for the people in this country, and more particularly, for the people in Alaska.' CNN's Tami Luhby contributed to this article.

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