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Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Concerns voiced over ‘renewed' surge in inflation
LAHORE: The Businessmen Panel (BMP) has sounded the alarm over a renewed surge in inflation, warning that recent hikes in utility tariffs and food prices are intensifying pressure on already struggling households and industries. The caution follows the latest figures from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), which reported a 4.07 percent week-on-week increase in the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending July 24, 2025. The increase, among the sharpest in recent weeks, was largely driven by a staggering 29.85 percent rise in gas charges and a 21.46 percent increase in electricity tariffs. Key food items such as tomatoes and eggs also saw notable hike of 22.93 percent and 3.96 percent, respectively. The lowest-income group, categorised as Q1 by PBS, was hit hardest, facing a 3.98 percent rise in their weekly cost of living. Mian Anjum Nisar responded to the data with serious concern, calling the current inflationary trend dangerous and unsustainable for both consumers and producers. He criticized the government's policy approach, saying that the burden of fiscal reforms and IMF commitments was being unfairly passed on to the public and private sectors without protective measures in place. He said the removal of energy subsidies and subsequent price shocks are driving both households and manufacturers to a breaking point. He said the absence of a comprehensive policy to shield vulnerable segments and support industrial production has created a dual crisis of rising living costs and shrinking economic activity. The surge in inflation, he added, is not just an economic indicator—it is a warning sign that the broader structure of the economy is under strain. Nisar linked the latest surge to international energy price movements, domestic gas and electricity tariff adjustments, and disruptions in food supply chains. He suggested that monthly inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 is likely to reach 3.3 percent year-on-year. The CPI is expected to reflect a 15 percent month-on-month increase in electricity tariffs and a 22.7 percent rise in gas prices, as the government normalizes administered prices in line with fiscal reforms. Anjum Nisar criticized this normalization process, stating that it ignores the realities on the ground. He said industries are being squeezed by high input costs, while consumers are struggling with the rapid erosion of purchasing power. He noted that food inflation, combined with utility price hikes, is making daily life unaffordable for large sections of the population. Meanwhile, the export sector continues to face setbacks due to rising costs, refund delays, and international demand slumps. He also expressed alarm over broader economic indicators. The country has witnessed a significant drop in exports, foreign direct investment, and remittances. At the same time, private sector borrowing is shrinking, and manufacturing activity has declined. He attributed these negative trends to policy instability, exchange rate volatility, and a lack of incentives for industrial revival. According to him, unless corrective steps are taken urgently, the country risks deeper stagflation. He said the recent inflation surge is not a one-time spike but part of a dangerous cycle rooted in structural imbalances. He stressed the need for agricultural reforms to stabilize the food supply chain, greater investment in storage and logistics, and improved coordination between federal and provincial authorities to manage market disruptions. Regarding the upcoming monetary policy announcement by the State Bank of Pakistan on July 30, Anjum Nisar urged a cautious and balanced approach. He said that while inflation control is essential, monetary tightening must not come at the cost of choking industrial activity. He called for targeted subsidies for low-income households and special energy pricing mechanisms for export-oriented industries and SMEs. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Express Tribune
3 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
Inflation intensifies 4.07% WoW
The headline monthly inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to come in at 3.3% year-on-year for July 2025, according to projections made by a research house. Photo: FILE Listen to article Inflationary pressures intensified as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended July 24, 2025 surged 4.07% week-on-week (WoW), according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The rise was driven primarily by steep hikes in gas charges, electricity tariffs and essential food items such as tomatoes and eggs, hitting the lowest income group (Q1) hardest with a 3.98% increase in their cost of living. The SPI data showed gas charges soared 29.85%, electricity costs rose 21.46% and key food items like tomatoes and eggs got costlier by 22.93% and 3.96%, respectively. Meanwhile, chicken prices dropped 7.95%, sugar 4.25% and onions 3.05%, offering slight relief amid broader inflationary pressures. Year-on-year (YoY) inflation in the week ended July 24, 2025 stood at 2.22%, with non-food items such as ladies' sandals (55.62%) and gas charges (29.85%) recording the steepest increases. Conversely, onions (-49.13%) and tomatoes (-30.20%) saw significant price declines compared to last year. The PBS report, which tracks 51 essential items across 17 cities, noted that 14 items became more expensive, 12 got cheaper and 25 remained stable. However, the persistent rise in utility and food costs continues to strain household budgets, especially for the poorest consumers. Economists attribute the inflation spike to rising global energy prices, domestic gas tariff adjustments and supply chain disruptions affecting perishable goods. The government faces mounting pressure to intervene, particularly for the Q1 income group, which spends a larger share of earnings on essentials like food and fuel. While recent declines in poultry and sugar prices provide some respite, experts warn that inflation volatility, especially in energy and staple foods, could worsen if supply-side issues persist. The SPI's findings underscore the uneven impact of inflation, with lower-income families bearing the brunt of rising living costs. Analysts urge targeted subsidies, price controls on essential commodities and long-term agricultural reforms to stabilise food supply chains. As Pakistan navigates economic challenges, the latest data highlights the urgent need for policies that protect vulnerable populations from inflationary shocks while ensuring price stability in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the headline monthly inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to clock in at 3.3% year-on-year for July 2025, according to projections made by Optimus Research. The anticipated surge in inflation is primarily driven by significant adjustments in administered energy prices. PBS appears to have fully reversed the earlier electricity subsidy adjustments implemented in the first quarter of FY25, which had understated the impact of rising tariffs. As a result, electricity charges are expected to jump 15% month-on-month in July. Additionally, gas prices are projected to increase 22.7% month-on-month, further contributing to the upward pressure on inflation. These adjustments mark the normalisation of utility pricing in line with fiscal reform commitments, potentially influencing upcoming monetary policy decisions. The State Bank of Pakistan is scheduled to announce the latest monetary policy on July 30.
Express Tribune
12-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
SPI rises 0.95% on food price spike
With food inflation remaining volatile and energy prices facing global and domestic uncertainties, economists warn that price stability in the coming months will depend on supply chain management, fiscal discipline and policy coordination. photo: file Listen to article The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended July 10, 2025 posted a week-on-week (WoW) increase of 0.95%, driven primarily by sharp upticks in food prices, particularly perishable items. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that the rise was fueled by significant hikes in prices of chicken, tomatoes and onions, among other daily-use commodities. According to the latest data, chicken prices surged 22.61%, followed by tomatoes, which rose 13.45%, onions (6.25%), potatoes (2.79%) and garlic (2.36%). Staple goods such as sugar and gur also experienced notable increases of 1.90% and 1.89%, respectively. The price of rice (Basmati broken) climbed modestly by 0.84%. Conversely, some relief was seen in prices of household fuels and pulses. The price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) declined 2.56%, while mustard oil fell 0.81%. Similarly, pulse moong dipped 0.41% and cooking oil (five litres) dropped 0.20%. Prices of wheat flour and vegetable ghee (2.5 kg) edged down 0.02% each. Out of the 51 essential items tracked weekly across 50 markets in 17 cities, prices of 19 items (37.25%) increased, six items (11.77%) decreased and 26 items (50.98%) remained unchanged, reflecting broad-based price fluctuations. While the weekly SPI rose, the year-on-year (YoY) trend showed a 1.23% decrease compared to the same week last year. The YoY decline is largely attributed to sharp reductions in prices of key perishables and utilities. The prices of onions dropped 50.04%, tomatoes fell 45.66% and electricity charges for Q1 were down 37.62%. Other significant drops included garlic (-22.80%), wheat flour (-22.19%), pulse mash (-20.46%), tea (Lipton) (-17.93%) and diesel (-1.58%). However, the decline in headline SPI does not reflect the continued pressure on households due to persistent increases in other categories. For instance, the prices of ladies' sandals surged 55.62% YoY, sugar rose 29.17%, pulse moong climbed 18.89% and beef increased 14.71%. Prices of chicken (13.77%), gur (12.66%) and vegetable ghee (12.46%) also posted double-digit increases, highlighting the uneven inflation landscape. Prices of firewood (10.44%), powdered milk (9.41%), lawn – printed fabric (7.89%) and shirting (7.31%) also rose over the year, which indicated broader cost-of-living pressures beyond food. The SPI, computed weekly by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, provides a short-term view of price trends in essential consumer items, offering timely insights to policymakers to assess inflationary pressures. With 51 essential items monitored in a consistent and geographically diverse basket, the SPI is a key tool for evaluating how price changes impact household budgets, particularly for lower- and middle-income segments. With food inflation remaining volatile and energy prices facing global and domestic uncertainties, economists warn that price stability in the coming months will depend on supply chain management, fiscal discipline and policy coordination between federal and provincial authorities. During the week ended July 10, 2025, the lowest income group (Q1) recorded the highest WoW increase of 1.10%, followed by Q3 at 1.02%, Q2 (0.99%), Q4 (0.88%) and the highest income group (Q5) at 0.85%. The combined SPI rose 0.95% week-on-week. On a YoY basis, the largest decline was observed in Q1, which saw a 2.79% drop, followed by Q2 at 2.41%, Q5 (1.24%), Q3 (0.59%) and Q4 with a marginal decline of 0.04%. The combined index showed a YoY decrease of 1.23%. These trends indicate that lower-income groups (Q1 and Q2) experienced comparatively sharper weekly price increases.
Express Tribune
28-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Short-term inflation eases on lower food prices
Listen to article The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended June 26, 2025 recorded a year-on-year (YoY) decrease of 1.52% and a week-on-week (WoW) decline of 0.18%, driven largely by falling prices of key food items including eggs, chicken, bananas, onions and potatoes, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The SPI declined 0.18% compared to the previous week, primarily driven by a sharp drop in prices of essential food items such as eggs (-12.27%), chicken (-10.75%), bananas (-2.75%), onions (-1.46%) and potatoes (-1.27%). However, upward pressure was observed in electricity charges for Q1 (+6.88%), garlic (+5.15%), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, +1.24%) and sugar (+0.88%), among others. Out of 51 monitored items, prices of 12 items (23.5%) increased, 14 items (27.5%) decreased and 25 items (49%) remained unchanged. On a year-on-year basis, the SPI showed a 1.52% decrease, with major drops in onions (-62.28%), tomatoes (-40.70%) and electricity charges (-37.62%). Meanwhile, notable annual increases were seen in ladies' sandals (+55.62%), sugar (+27.35%) and powdered milk (+25.97%). The SPI tracks prices of 51 essential commodities from 50 markets across 17 cities, providing a weekly snapshot of inflationary trends in Pakistan. The combined SPI stood at 309.80 points compared to 310.35 points a week earlier and 314.57 in the corresponding week of last year, according to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited. All income groups experienced a decline in the weekly inflation. The lowest income group (Q1) saw a marginal drop of 0.06%, while the highest income group (Q5) recorded a decrease of 0.25%. On a yearly basis, Q2 experienced the largest decline of 3.31%, followed by Q1 at 2.36% and Q3 at 1.80%. The least affected was Q5, with a year-on-year decline of just 0.33%. The historical yearly trend indicates that inflation remained in negative territory for most of March and April, hit a brief positive spike in mid-May and turned negative again through June, reflecting the return to disinflationary pressure. Following a 3.5% year-on-year reading in May 2025, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to stand at 3.1% in June 2025, noted Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Research Head at JS Global. "The base effect is now fading, signalling the return to normalised price trends." This would take the FY25 average to 4.6%, down from the FY24 average of 23.9%. Food inflation for June 2025 is expected to rise 2.8% on a year-on-year basis, which was 0.97% last year, owing to the dissipation of base effect. Nevertheless, price decreases in certain food items are likely to lead to a month-on-month decline in food inflation. Housing, gas and electricity category is projected to post a 4% year-on-year decline in June 2025, primarily due to reduction in electricity tariffs. Core inflation is expected to clock in around 8.5% year-on-year in June. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, has remained around 9-10% for the past many months. Urban core inflation was registered at 7.3% in May, while rural core inflation was reported at 8.8%.
Express Tribune
21-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Fuel and food items lift SPI by 0.27%
The Sensitive Price Indicator for week ending July 14 showed an increase of 16.13 per cent compared to the same week last year. PHOTO: FILE Listen to article The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended June 19, 2025 recorded an increase of 0.27% compared to the previous week, driven by higher prices of key food and energy items, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Notable weekly increases were seen in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, up 14.86%), potatoes (3.75%), diesel (3.10%), gur (2.25%), chicken (2.17%), sugar (2.13%), petrol (1.88%), mustard oil (1.12%), powdered milk (0.97%), broken Basmati rice (0.84%), cooked daal (0.68%) and prepared tea (0.39%). Conversely, prices declined for eggs (-9.53%), tomatoes (-5.62%), garlic (-1.03%), pulse gram (-0.35%), 2.5kg vegetable ghee (-0.17%), five-litre cooking oil (-0.03%) and bananas and firewood (-0.01% each). Out of 51 essential items monitored across 50 markets in 17 cities, prices of 23 items rose, eight fell and 20 remained unchanged. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the SPI showed a decrease of 2.06%, with major drops in prices of onions (-63.22%), tomatoes (-56.11%), electricity charges for Q1 (-41.63%), garlic (-32.58%), pulse mash (-19.09%) and potatoes (-17.97%). However, significant annual increases were recorded in ladies' sandals (+55.62%), pulse moong (+28.90%), sugar (+26.19%), powdered milk (+25.93%) and LPG (+21.77%). The weekly SPI serves as a key tool to gauge short-term price movements in essential commodities and to monitor inflationary trends across the country. The SPI has shown mixed trends in recent weeks, with slight fluctuations influenced by petroleum price revisions and market demand dynamics. After experiencing declines earlier in May, the SPI has been gradually inching upwards since late May, indicating renewed inflationary pressures in both food and energy segments, according to data compiled by Optimus Capital Management. Market observers suggest that the coming weeks may witness further volatility depending on global commodity prices and domestic supply conditions. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) noted that inflation was expected to trend up and stabilise in the target range during FY26. JS Global Research Head Muhammad Waqas Ghani noted that following a 3.5% YoY increase in May 2025, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to stand at 3.1% in June. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends. This will take the FY25 average to 4.6%, down from the FY24 average of 23.9%. Food inflation for June 2025 is expected to rise 2.8% on a YoY basis, which was 0.97% last year, owing to the dissipation of base effect. Nevertheless, price decreases in certain food items are likely to lead to a month-on-month (MoM) decline in food inflation. Housing, gas and electricity segment is projected to post a 4% YoY decline in June, primarily due to a reduction in electricity tariffs. Core inflation is expected to clock in around 8.5% YoY in June 2025. It is pertinent to note that core inflation, which excludes food and energy items, has remained around 9-10% for the past many months. Urban core inflation was registered at 7.3% in May while rural core inflation was reported at 8.8%.
