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An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?
An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?

Yahoo

time3 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?

Key Points Cathie Wood's Ark Invest exchange-traded funds hold stakes in some of the world's most innovative technology companies. Ark recently issued a forecast suggesting the logistics industry will be shaken up by autonomous vehicles, creating an $860 billion opportunity. Serve Robotics is an early leader in the autonomous delivery robot niche, and it already has a big deal with Uber Eats. 10 stocks we like better than Serve Robotics › Cathie Wood is one of the most vocal bulls on Wall Street when it comes to innovative technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and autonomous vehicles. Her firm, Ark Invest, runs a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in companies operating in those industries. Earlier this year, Ark released the 2025 edition of its annual "Big Ideas" report, which featured updated forecasts for many of its favorite investing themes. In its look at the future of the logistics industry, the firm predicted there could be a whopping $860 billion revenue opportunity by 2030 for autonomous delivery robots, drones, and even trucks. Serve Robotics (NASDAQ: SERV) is a small-cap company worth just $600 million, but it's trying to transform last-mile logistics with its autonomous food delivery robots. It has a major contract with Uber Technologies to launch 2,000 robots this year, but that might be the tip of the iceberg if Ark's forecasts prove close to accurate. Is the stock a buy right now? Breaking down the opportunity Ark's $860 billion forecast is divided into three parts: $160 billion for food delivery, $280 billion for parcel delivery, and $420 billion for larger freight that would be delivered by autonomous trucks. Serve started with food delivery robots that navigate on sidewalks autonomously, but the company is moving into drones and other last-mile solutions that could eventually expand its reach into parcels. Serve's latest Gen3 robots run on Nvidia's Jetson Orin platform, which provides the computing power they need to operate autonomously. Those Gen3 robots operate with level 4 autonomy, meaning they can safely travel on sidewalks within designated areas without any human intervention. To capture the forecast $160 billion opportunity in autonomous food delivery by 2030 could require millions of robots operating all over the world. The 2,000 new Gen3 models that Serve will deploy this year under its deal with Uber Eats will help validate its business model and pave the way for a larger rollout. Around 250 hit the streets during the first quarter of 2025, with 700 more expected to be in use by the end of the third quarter, and the remainder coming online before the end of the year. The new robots enabled Serve to expand its service into Miami and Dallas earlier this year. In June, the company also started operating in Atlanta. Serve's revenue could soar, but it's losing truckloads of money Serve's revenue stream is quite lumpy right now, which is typical for a company in the scale-up phase. In the first quarter, revenue plunged by 53% year over year to $440,465. However, that decline was entirely due to the fact that the comparison was being made against a year-ago period during which its revenue was inflated by a one-off licensing payment of $850,000 from its manufacturing partner, Magna International. Moreover, Serve's first-quarter revenue was up by a whopping 150% from its result three months earlier (which wasn't distorted by unusual payments). This suggests there is some genuine momentum building in its delivery business. In fact, Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests Serve's 2025 revenue could come in at $6.8 million, which would be a 275% jump compared to 2024. Then in 2026, analysts believe Serve's revenue will surge by another 648% to $50.6 million as more of its robots go into service. But there's a glaring problem: Scaling an autonomous robotics business isn't cheap. Serve lost $13.2 million during the first quarter of 2025 alone, putting the company on track to exceed its 2024 net loss of $39.2 million by a wide margin. Even if Serve does deliver $6.8 million in revenue this year, that won't be anywhere near enough to offset the amount it's spending on line items like research and development. The company has around $197 million in cash on its balance sheet, so it can afford to lose money at its current pace for at least a couple more years, but it will have to chart a path to profitability soon. If it doesn't, it might need to raise capital again, which would dilute existing investors and dent their potential returns. Serve stock isn't cheap, but should investors buy it anyway? Serve stock trades at a sky-high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 368 as of July 15, which makes it a staggering 13 times more expensive by that metric than Nvidia. I'm going to be completely frank: Serve stock doesn't deserve to be trading at such a hefty premium, so it's difficult to make the case for buying it right now. However, the stock looks a little more reasonable if we value it based on its expected future revenue. If we assume the company will bring in $6.8 million this year as Wall Street expects, that gives the stock a forward P/S ratio of 89.6 -- still expensive, but a little less ludicrous. If we base its valuation on Wall Street's 2026 revenue forecast of $50.6 million, that places its stock at a 1-year forward P/S ratio of 12, which might even be considered cheap for a company growing this quickly. But it's impossible to know whether Serve can deliver as much revenue over the next couple of years as Wall Street expects. Therefore, short- to medium-term investors should probably proceed with caution. However, if Ark's 2030 forecasts for the autonomous logistics industry prove accurate, then investors who are willing to buy Serve stock today and hold onto it for at least the next five years or so could do well, despite its eye-watering valuation right now. Should you invest $1,000 in Serve Robotics right now? Before you buy stock in Serve Robotics, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Serve Robotics wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $679,653!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,046,308!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 179% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Serve Robotics, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Magna International. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?
An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?

Globe and Mail

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

An $860 Billion Opportunity: Is Serve Robotics Stock a Buy Based on This Forecast by Cathie Wood's Ark Invest?

Key Points Cathie Wood's Ark Invest exchange-traded funds hold stakes in some of the world's most innovative technology companies. Ark recently issued a forecast suggesting the logistics industry will be shaken up by autonomous vehicles, creating an $860 billion opportunity. Serve Robotics is an early leader in the autonomous delivery robot niche, and it already has a big deal with Uber Eats. 10 stocks we like better than Serve Robotics › Cathie Wood is one of the most vocal bulls on Wall Street when it comes to innovative technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and autonomous vehicles. Her firm, Ark Invest, runs a set of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in companies operating in those industries. Earlier this year, Ark released the 2025 edition of its annual "Big Ideas" report, which featured updated forecasts for many of its favorite investing themes. In its look at the future of the logistics industry, the firm predicted there could be a whopping $860 billion revenue opportunity by 2030 for autonomous delivery robots, drones, and even trucks. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » Serve Robotics (NASDAQ: SERV) is a small-cap company worth just $600 million, but it's trying to transform last-mile logistics with its autonomous food delivery robots. It has a major contract with Uber Technologies to launch 2,000 robots this year, but that might be the tip of the iceberg if Ark's forecasts prove close to accurate. Is the stock a buy right now? Breaking down the opportunity Ark's $860 billion forecast is divided into three parts: $160 billion for food delivery, $280 billion for parcel delivery, and $420 billion for larger freight that would be delivered by autonomous trucks. Serve started with food delivery robots that navigate on sidewalks autonomously, but the company is moving into drones and other last-mile solutions that could eventually expand its reach into parcels. Serve's latest Gen3 robots run on Nvidia 's Jetson Orin platform, which provides the computing power they need to operate autonomously. Those Gen3 robots operate with level 4 autonomy, meaning they can safely travel on sidewalks within designated areas without any human intervention. To capture the forecast $160 billion opportunity in autonomous food delivery by 2030 could require millions of robots operating all over the world. The 2,000 new Gen3 models that Serve will deploy this year under its deal with Uber Eats will help validate its business model and pave the way for a larger rollout. Around 250 hit the streets during the first quarter of 2025, with 700 more expected to be in use by the end of the third quarter, and the remainder coming online before the end of the year. The new robots enabled Serve to expand its service into Miami and Dallas earlier this year. In June, the company also started operating in Atlanta. Serve's revenue could soar, but it's losing truckloads of money Serve's revenue stream is quite lumpy right now, which is typical for a company in the scale-up phase. In the first quarter, revenue plunged by 53% year over year to $440,465. However, that decline was entirely due to the fact that the comparison was being made against a year-ago period during which its revenue was inflated by a one-off licensing payment of $850,000 from its manufacturing partner, Magna International. Moreover, Serve's first-quarter revenue was up by a whopping 150% from its result three months earlier (which wasn't distorted by unusual payments). This suggests there is some genuine momentum building in its delivery business. In fact, Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests Serve's 2025 revenue could come in at $6.8 million, which would be a 275% jump compared to 2024. Then in 2026, analysts believe Serve's revenue will surge by another 648% to $50.6 million as more of its robots go into service. But there's a glaring problem: Scaling an autonomous robotics business isn't cheap. Serve lost $13.2 million during the first quarter of 2025 alone, putting the company on track to exceed its 2024 net loss of $39.2 million by a wide margin. Even if Serve does deliver $6.8 million in revenue this year, that won't be anywhere near enough to offset the amount it's spending on line items like research and development. The company has around $197 million in cash on its balance sheet, so it can afford to lose money at its current pace for at least a couple more years, but it will have to chart a path to profitability soon. If it doesn't, it might need to raise capital again, which would dilute existing investors and dent their potential returns. Serve stock isn't cheap, but should investors buy it anyway? Serve stock trades at a sky-high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 368 as of July 15, which makes it a staggering 13 times more expensive by that metric than Nvidia. I'm going to be completely frank: Serve stock doesn't deserve to be trading at such a hefty premium, so it's difficult to make the case for buying it right now. SERV PS Ratio data by YCharts. However, the stock looks a little more reasonable if we value it based on its expected future revenue. If we assume the company will bring in $6.8 million this year as Wall Street expects, that gives the stock a forward P/S ratio of 89.6 -- still expensive, but a little less ludicrous. If we base its valuation on Wall Street's 2026 revenue forecast of $50.6 million, that places its stock at a 1-year forward P/S ratio of 12, which might even be considered cheap for a company growing this quickly. SERV PS Ratio data by YCharts. But it's impossible to know whether Serve can deliver as much revenue over the next couple of years as Wall Street expects. Therefore, short- to medium-term investors should probably proceed with caution. However, if Ark's 2030 forecasts for the autonomous logistics industry prove accurate, then investors who are willing to buy Serve stock today and hold onto it for at least the next five years or so could do well, despite its eye-watering valuation right now. Should you invest $1,000 in Serve Robotics right now? Before you buy stock in Serve Robotics, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Serve Robotics wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $679,653!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,046,308!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 179% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025

Orwellian clip shows dystopian robot horror that has become new normal in crime-plagued Los Angeles
Orwellian clip shows dystopian robot horror that has become new normal in crime-plagued Los Angeles

Daily Mail​

time5 days ago

  • Entertainment
  • Daily Mail​

Orwellian clip shows dystopian robot horror that has become new normal in crime-plagued Los Angeles

Los Angeles is now so rough tech companies are buying dummies to use as fake homeless people while testing their new delivery robots. The wheeled devices have been filmed maneuvering past mannequins sprawled on the City of Angels' grimy sidewalks while being tested by food delivery firm Serve Robotics. In the latest footage, a stunned witness shared a clip of the device after catching Serve Robotics engineers testing their device on the sidewalk. But the witness quickly realized the dummies were a good idea - because in real life the little robots will regularly have to maneuver LA's thousands of vagrants. 'My mind went straight to, yeah they better learn how to dodge all that,' he said. 'It's more important to be safe and go around and dodge lawsuits.' The footage circulated across social media as people were left in awe at what passes for normal in LA in 2025. I seriously can't believe this is real Tech workers are out testing and training delivery robots in Los Angeles California to avoid homeless people on sidewalks Tech worker 'testing in progress' with homeless dummies setup for the testing And Gavin Newsom wants to be President — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 16, 2025 After the clip went viral on X, users mocked California's Democrat leaders for allowing the state to require homeless-dodging robots. 'Instead of (Governor Gavin) Newsom and (LA Mayor Karen) Bass addressing California's homelessness crisis, they're spending money on teaching robots to simply go around,' one X user remarked. 'It's like patching a leaky roof by redirecting the rain rather than fixing the hole.' Another said: 'Instead of cleaning up the homeless situation, we've decided to get a robot that goes around them. Whose brilliant idea was this? Newsom or Bass?' A third joked: 'Why do people watch dystopia movies? Bro just move to California.' California has emerged as the homelessness capital of America in recent years, with many flocking from across the country to enjoy its lenient policies and warm weather. In a shock report from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2024, it was found that the number of homeless people in California increased by over 30,000 in just five years. While California struggles with 187,084 homeless individuals, New York follows with 158,019, then Washington with 31,554, and Florida with 31,362. Between 2021 and 2022, California spent a staggering $7.2 billion on its homeless population, according to a HUD report from 2022. This equates to $41,000 per vagrant, with the total spent on homelessness in the state over a five-year span reaching over $24 billion.

SERV vs. UBER: Which Autonomous Delivery Play Offers More Upside Now?
SERV vs. UBER: Which Autonomous Delivery Play Offers More Upside Now?

Yahoo

time6 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

SERV vs. UBER: Which Autonomous Delivery Play Offers More Upside Now?

Serve Robotics Inc. SERV and Uber Technologies, Inc. UBER are both tapping into the fast-evolving autonomous delivery space, although their approaches diverge significantly. Serve Robotics is building a vertically integrated sidewalk robot delivery platform, while Uber is embedding autonomous vehicle technology through partnerships into its expansive ride-hailing and food delivery network. The global autonomous delivery market is gaining momentum, driven by advancements in robotics, sensor technologies and AI-based fleet management systems. Per the report, the global autonomous last-mile delivery market is projected to reach $6.2 billion by 2030, driven by the rapid adoption of ground robots and drones across sectors like retail, logistics and healthcare. This growth is powered by rising consumer demand for faster, contactless delivery options and increasing investments in autonomous delivery solutions worldwide. Serve Robotics is one of the few public pure plays in sidewalk delivery automation. Its autonomous robots are already operating in high-density urban areas, delivering food and goods on behalf of partners like Shake Shack Inc. SHAK and Mister O1. Meanwhile, Uber remains a dominant player in global mobility and food delivery and is exploring AV integration through collaborations with Waymo, Aurora and other tech providers. Against this backdrop of rising automation and shifting urban logistics, both SERV and UBER offer unique value propositions. But the real question is: Which stock has a more compelling upside? Let's examine the case for each. Serve Robotics is executing a focused strategy to transform urban delivery through autonomous sidewalk robots. In the first quarter of 2025, SERV added 250 new Gen 3 robots to its fleet, bringing the total to more than 300. This expansion helped boost delivery volume by more than 75% quarter over quarter. Management expects second-quarter delivery volume growth to be in the range of 60-75%. New market entries like Miami, Dallas and soon Atlanta are helping expand the company's geographic reach. Beyond delivery, SERV is beginning to monetize its platform in new ways. The company has started generating recurring software revenues from licensing its autonomy and fleet management stack to partners, including a major European automaker and industrial robotics companies. The company also provided an update on its software and data platform, highlighting it as a core differentiator in its business model. Its robotic platform — comprising advanced technologies for building and managing autonomous fleets — along with proprietary vehicle-generated data used to train AI models, continues to unlock new commercial opportunities. While still in its early stages, this diversification could significantly boost margins and reduce reliance on any single revenue stream over time. Financially, Serve maintains a strong balance sheet with $198 million in cash as of the first quarter of 2025. The company raised $91 million earlier this year and chose to self-fund its 2,000-unit fleet buildout, eliminating roughly $20 million in potential financing costs through 2026. While still unprofitable (posting a $7.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the first quarter), SERV's operating leverage is likely to pave the path for improvement as utilization increases and high-margin software revenue scales. Uber is rapidly solidifying its position as a key enabler in the autonomous vehicle (AV) space through a platform-first approach. The company is forming strategic alliances with leading AV firms, including Waymo, Aurora, May Mobility and Momenta, to drive growth. This partnership-driven model allows Uber to integrate cutting-edge AV capabilities into its global mobility and delivery ecosystem while maintaining a capital-light structure. In the first quarter of 2025, the company launched approximately 100 Waymo vehicles in Austin and reported solid feedback regarding the Delivery segment is also scaling profitably. In the first quarter, the company reported delivery incremental margins of 9%, driven by advertising revenues, an improved cost structure, and expanding contributions from grocery and retail. Membership programs like Uber One and merchant-funded promotions are helping Uber drive greater order frequency and stickiness. On the innovation front, Uber is leveraging AI to optimize dynamic pricing, reduce insurance costs and enhance safety through driver behavior analytics. These efforts, combined with automation in support functions and customer engagement, are enabling Uber to grow profitably while improving service reliability and user Uber's AV ambitions are gaining real-world traction through scalable, cross-market deployments. While macro risks and regulatory scrutiny remain, Uber's ability to scale both its core businesses and emerging automation initiatives positions it well for long-term growth. Uber is focused on unlocking growth in suburban and low-density markets. Serve Robotics stock has surged 97.3% in the past three months, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's rise of 18.7%. Meanwhile, Uber shares have risen 28.5% in the same time. SERV & UBER Stock Three-Month Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Serve Robotics is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 24.71, well above UBER's forward 12-month P/S multiple of 3.58. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Uber Technologies appears to be in a stronger position than Serve Robotics at this stage owing to its mature operating model, global platform scale and disciplined expansion into autonomous vehicle integration. The company's ability to leverage strategic AV partnerships while maintaining strong free cash flow and margin expansion reflects a high degree of execution maturity. Its diversified exposure across mobility, delivery, and logistics provides stability and long-term optionality as AV deployments Serve Robotics is gaining traction in sidewalk-based autonomous delivery and beginning to monetize its platform through software licensing, it remains an early-stage player with a narrower market focus. The company's rapid fleet expansion and early revenue streams are encouraging, but execution risks remain as it scales to new geographies and transitions toward recurring revenues. Its high valuation implies aggressive growth assumptions that may be tested in the coming global reach, proven profitability and partner-driven AV strategy provide it with a more robust foundation to navigate the competitive and regulatory complexities of the autonomous delivery currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), while SERV has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) : Free Stock Analysis Report Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) : Free Stock Analysis Report Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Serve Robotics Launches Its Autonomous Delivery Robots in Atlanta
Serve Robotics Launches Its Autonomous Delivery Robots in Atlanta

Yahoo

time11-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Serve Robotics Launches Its Autonomous Delivery Robots in Atlanta

Serve Robotics Inc. (NASDAQ:SERV) is one of the . On June 26, the company unveiled plans to launch its service in Atlanta. Recently, the company has launched autonomous delivery robots across Midtown, Old Fourth Ward, and Downtown Atlanta, bringing premium services to over 50,000 people in the area. The company is refining its business through its ongoing collaboration with Uber Eats, the basis of its successful launches in Los Angeles, Miami, and Dallas-Fort Worth. Serve Robotics Inc. (NASDAQ:SERV) is committed to solidifying its position as a premium delivery service through its mission to deploy 2,000 AI delivery robots across the country by the end of 2025. 'As one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in the Southeast, Atlanta is a strategic next step for our planned nationwide expansion. We are pleased to be one of the first robotics companies to enter the market and bring our friendly approach to robotic delivery,' said Dr. Ali Kashani, CEO and co-founder of Serve Robotics. Serve Robotics Inc. (NASDAQ:SERV) designs and develops low-emission robots with a focus on food delivery in the United States. The company spun off from Uber in 2021 as an independent entity. While we acknowledge the potential of SERV as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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