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BOT holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks
BOT holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks

Business Times

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

BOT holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks

[BANGKOK] The Bank of Thailand (BOT) held its key interest rate unchanged and unexpectedly raised its growth forecast for 2025, even as it assessed risks ranging from US tariffs to the conflict in the Middle East. The central bank's seven-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-1 to maintain the one-day repurchase rate steady at 1.75 per cent at Wednesday's (Jun 25) meeting as predicted by 15 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest forecast a quarter-point cut. The BOT now sees 2025 economic growth at 2.3 per cent, a slight improvement from the range of 1.3 per cent to about 2 per cent forecast in April. The revision was mainly due to improving exports and manufacturing in the first-half of the year, due to frontloading on tariff concerns, BOT assistant governor Sakkapop Panyanukul said at a briefing after the decision, with 2025 growth unlikely to slow to below 2 per cent if there is no major shock. 'Looking ahead, the economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, as merchandise exports are facing headwinds from US tariffs and private consumption will moderate in line with weakening income and consumer confidence,' the MPC said. Growth will likely slow to 1.7 per cent in 2026. Following the first back-to-back cut since 2020, Wednesday's decision to hold the key rate reflected 'high uncertainty and limited policy space,' the MPC said. Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput had warned in May that the BOT had limited policy 'ammunition' after 75 basis points of rate cuts since October. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Previous policy rate cuts have already provided some cushion against the prevailing risks, the MPC said. 'The committee deems that monetary policy should be accommodative to support the economy looking forward.' The baht gained 0.2 per cent versus the dollar to 32.612 as of 2.30 pm in Bangkok on Wednesday, strengthening in tandem with the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah as jitters about hostilities in the Middle East eased. The benchmark Stock Exchange of Thailand Index traded 0.5 per cent higher after the decision. Last week's fracture in the ruling coalition adds to risks for South-east Asia's economy, just as the government holds talks to avert a threatened 36 per cent tariff on exports to the US. Continued attacks in Israel and Iran are also spurring global oil prices higher, posing a risk to Thailand, which imports for its fuel needs. Also underlining the improved full-year outlook is the BOT's view that the trade war could be less severe. The BOT's base case assumes an 18 per cent tariff rate will be applied to Thailand – half the rate announced in April – and 10 per cent for other countries. Still, consumption is also softening, the number of foreign tourists is on the decline, and businesses are facing challenges from cheaper imports, the BOT said. UBS Group has downgraded Thai stocks to neutral from overweight on concerns over policy direction and investor sentiment. Meanwhile, price pressures are seen remaining modest. Headline inflation is estimated to remain low at 0.5 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2026, below the central bank's 1 per cent to 3 per cent target. The BOT also sees the core gauge coming in at 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026. 'The Committee assesses that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain,' it said. 'It stands ready to adjust monetary policy as appropriate in response to future trends and risks concerning both the economy and inflation.' Thailand remains one of South-east Asia's economic laggards, though exports surged the most since early 2022 in May as companies rushed to stockpile goods before US tariffs hit. Authorities have begun long-delayed talks with the US in a bid to reduce the Trump administration's threatened levy. Today's decision is one of the last under Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, who will complete his five-year term on Sep 30. An independent selection panel shortlisted Vitai Ratanakorn, president of the Government Savings Bank, and BOT Deputy Governor Roong Mallikamas from a list of six applicants who were interviewed on Tuesday. BLOOMBERG

Thailand holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks
Thailand holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks

Business Times

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

Thailand holds rate, raises growth forecast despite risks

[BANGKOK] The Bank of Thailand (BOT) held its key interest rate unchanged and unexpectedly raised its growth forecast for 2025, even as it assess risks ranging from US tariffs to the conflict in the Middle East. The central bank's seven-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-1 to maintain the one-day repurchase rate steady at 1.75 per cent at Wednesday's (Jun 25) meeting as predicted by 15 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest forecast a quarter-point cut. The BOT now sees 2025 economic growth at 2.3 per cent, a slight improvement from the range of 1.3 per cent to about 2 per cent forecast in April. The revision was mainly due to improving exports and manufacturing in the first-half of the year, due to frontloading on tariff concerns, BOT Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul said at a briefing after the decision, with 2025 growth unlikely to slow to below 2 per cent if there is no major shock. 'Looking ahead, the economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, as merchandise exports are facing headwinds from US tariffs and private consumption will moderate in line with weakening income and consumer confidence,' the MPC said. Growth will likely slow to 1.7 per cent in 2026. Following the first back-to-back cut since 2020, Wednesday's decision to hold the key rate reflected 'high uncertainty and limited policy space,' the MPC said. Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput had warned in May that the BOT had limited policy 'ammunition' after 75 basis points of rate cuts since October. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Previous policy rate cuts have already provided some cushion against the prevailing risks, the MPC said. 'The Committee deems that monetary policy should be accommodative to support the economy looking forward.' The baht gained 0.2 per cent versus the dollar to 32.612 as of 2.30 pm in Bangkok on Wednesday, strengthening in tandem with the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah as jitters about hostilities in the Middle East eased. The benchmark Stock Exchange of Thailand Index traded 0.5 per cent higher after the decision. Last week's fracture in the ruling coalition adds to risks for South-east Asia's economy, just as the government holds talks to avert a threatened 36 per cent tariff on exports to the US. Continued attacks in Israel and Iran are also spurring global oil prices higher, posing a risk to Thailand, which imports for its fuel needs. Also underlining the improved full-year outlook is the BOT's view that the trade war could be less severe. The BOT's base case assumes an 18 per cent tariff rate will be applied to Thailand – half the rate announced in April – and 10 per cent for other countries. Still, consumption is also softening, the number of foreign tourists is on the decline, and businesses are facing challenges from cheaper imports, the BOT said. UBS Group has downgraded Thai stocks to neutral from overweight on concerns over policy direction and investor sentiment. Meanwhile, price pressures are seen remaining modest. Headline inflation is estimated to remain low at 0.5 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2026, below the central bank's 1 per cent to 3 per cent target. The BOT also sees the core gauge coming in at 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. 'The Committee assesses that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain,' it said. 'It stands ready to adjust monetary policy as appropriate in response to future trends and risks concerning both the economy and inflation.' Thailand remains one of South-east Asia's economic laggards, though exports surged the most since early 2022 in May as companies rushed to stockpile goods before US tariffs hit. Authorities have begun long-delayed talks with the US in a bid to reduce the Trump administration's threatened levy. Today's decision is one of the last under Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, who will complete his five-year term on Sept 30. An independent selection panel shortlisted Vitai Ratanakorn, president of the Government Savings Bank, and BOT Deputy Governor Roong Mallikamas from a list of six applicants who were interviewed on Tuesday. BLOOMBERG

Thailand holds key rate as political uncertainty adds to risks
Thailand holds key rate as political uncertainty adds to risks

Business Times

time25-06-2025

  • Business
  • Business Times

Thailand holds key rate as political uncertainty adds to risks

[BANGKOK] The Bank of Thailand held its key interest rate unchanged, saving its limited policy space as political uncertainty at home compounds global risks ranging from US tariffs to the conflict in the Middle East. The central bank's seven-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-1 to maintain the one-day repurchase rate steady at 1.75 per cent at Wednesday's (Jun 25) meeting. The hold was predicted by 15 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with the rest forecasting a quarter-point cut. April saw the first back-to-back cut since 2020. Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput had warned in May that the BOT had limited policy 'ammunition' after 75 basis points of rate cuts since October. Still, last week's fracture in the ruling coalition added to risks for South-east Asia's economy, just as the government holds talks to avert a threatened 36 per cent tariff on exports to the US. UBS Group has downgraded Thai stocks to neutral from overweight on concerns over policy direction and investor sentiment. BLOOMBERG

Letter from Nikkei Asia's editor: Nintendo's Switch 2 is out -- now the game is getting one
Letter from Nikkei Asia's editor: Nintendo's Switch 2 is out -- now the game is getting one

Nikkei Asia

time06-06-2025

  • Business
  • Nikkei Asia

Letter from Nikkei Asia's editor: Nintendo's Switch 2 is out -- now the game is getting one

Hello from Tokyo. Nintendo released its new game console, the Nintendo Switch 2, on Thursday. However, due to supply constraints and a strict and complex lottery-based sales system, eager fans may have to wait quite a while before getting their hands on the device. Our news editor, who once covered Nintendo as a reporter, shared his disappointment after failing to win the lottery on Wednesday. The Switch 2 faces two major challenges. The first is whether Nintendo can ramp up supply in time for the holiday shopping season, amid global disruptions linked to Trump-era tariffs. The second, longer-term challenge is whether the company can break its cycle of hit-and-miss consoles following the massive success of the current Switch. Headquartered in Kyoto, Nintendo stands out among Japanese tech companies. It entered the game console market over 40 years ago, following the success of its portable Game & Watch device, which used display technology originally developed for calculators. Even as tech giants like Sony and Microsoft entered the gaming industry, Nintendo has managed to maintain its market share. In recent years, it has held its ground against the rise of smartphone and PC gaming. Nintendo has two key strengths. The first is its hardware development philosophy, known as "lateral thinking with withered technology." Just as it once adapted calculator-based tech for gaming, Nintendo has consistently introduced new forms of entertainment by creatively combining widely available, mature technologies. The second strength lies in its roster of game characters, developed over more than 40 years. With franchises like Mario and Zelda, it offers games beloved by players of all ages. Will the Switch 2 make it onto your gift list in time for the holiday season? Please stay tuned to Nikkei Asia for the latest updates. My suggested reads 1. The grocery retail market in the Philippines is being shaken up by the rapid expansion of two so-called hard discounters, Dali and O!Save. Characterized by limited selections of mostly own-brand products, a relentless focus on cost efficiency and noticeably lower prices than their competitors, they are carving out a significant niche. 2. In May, Nissan's new CEO, Ivan Espinosa, unveiled a drastic restructuring plan echoing the carmaker's cost-cutting strategy of 1999, which succeeded by slashing over 20,000 jobs and closing factories. But today, Nissan faces far tougher challenges, including the shift toward electric vehicles and growing competition from China. 3. In an exclusive interview, Bank of Thailand Gov. Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput warns that U.S. tariffs and the resulting influx of diverted goods into Southeast Asia's second-largest economy could hurt industries from tires to furniture, with the real impact likely to hit in the second half of the year. 4. South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, faces urgent trade talks with the U.S. as the pause on President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs ends next month. With major implications for South Korea's economy, Lee must act quickly -- possibly using his shared outsider status with Trump to his advantage in negotiations. 5. Once a quiet colonial outpost, Malaysia's Penang Island has evolved into a multicultural hub where temples, street art and clan houses meet hip cafes and heritage hotels. Writer and local resident Marco Ferrarese shares how to enjoy the island's rich history, vibrant food scene and lush hill trails. Through the lens This week's top photo pick: South Korea's new President Lee Jae-myung forms a heart shape with his arms as he greets supporters after his inauguration in Seoul on June 4. (Photo by Lee Jin-man/Pool/Reuters) Check out more of our photo coverage here Wishing you a wonderful weekend!

Four candidates confirm applications for Bank of Thailand Governor
Four candidates confirm applications for Bank of Thailand Governor

CNA

time05-06-2025

  • Business
  • CNA

Four candidates confirm applications for Bank of Thailand Governor

BANGKOK : A university dean, a board member at the state planning agency and the head of a state bank are among the seven candidates to Thailand's next central bank governor, with the selection committee to prepare a shortlist over the next month. By Thursday, four people had publicly confirmed their interest in the role after the finance ministry said on Wednesday it had received seven applications. The selection committee plans to shortlist at least two candidates to succeed Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput by July 2, with the finance minister to bring the name of his preferred candidate to cabinet. The final appointment will require cabinet and royal approval. "The country is facing serious problems... I want to propose how monetary policy can help," Somprawin Manprasert, a board member at the state planning agency and former chief economist at Siam Commercial Bank, told Reuters when confirming his bid. "Even if I'm not chosen, whoever is can use those proposals," said the 50-year-old, who holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Maryland. Anusorn Tamajai, the dean of economics at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, also confirmed his candidacy to Reuters. The 59-year-old has been a BOT board member and also served on the Finance Ministry's debt management committee. Other candidates to confirm to Thai media that they had applied for the role are Vitai Ratanakorn, the 54-year-old president of the state-owned Government Savings Bank who previously led Thailand's $34 billion Government Pension Fund, and Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations. Kobsak, 56, served as minister attached to the Prime Minister's Office from 2017 to 2019, and has worked in the BOT's Monetary Policy Department. Local media have reported three other applicants, including two women, who have not publicly confirmed their interest. A current BOT deputy governor, Roong Mallikamas, was reported to have applied. The 56-year-old has held senior roles in financial markets and monetary policy in her two-decade career at the central bank. She declined to comment when contacted by Reuters. Another reported applicant is former IMF economist and finance ministry official, Sutapa Amornvivat, who is the CEO of fintech lender Abacus Digital. The 50-year-old is a cousin of Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat. She declined to comment when contacted by Reuters. Thai media also reported businessman and politician Vikran Supamongkol had applied for the role. Reuters could not immediately reach him for comment on whether he was a candidate.

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