Latest news with #SharonZollner
RNZ News
3 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
Business confidence rises for first time in three months as firms look past tariff turmoil
ANZ's business outlook survey showed headline confidence rising nine points in June to a net 46 percent, expecting better business conditions in the year ahead. Photo: Unsplash/ Li Rezaei Business sentiment has improved for the first time in three months as firms begin to look past tariff turmoil . ANZ's business outlook survey showed headline confidence rising nine points in June to a net 46 percent, expecting better business conditions in the year ahead. The more closely followed measure of businesses' own outlooks rose six points to 41 percent. However, in another sign of slow economic recovery, past activity fell three points, while past employment was flat and at subdued levels. Inflation expectations remained steady at 2.71 percent. "It continues to be a difficult business environment for many," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner. Photo: ABC / Luke Bowden "Costs are still going up and margins are being squeezed, with low turnover and a highly competitive environment making it very difficult to recoup margins." Zollner said forward-looking activity indicators were generally better as tariff noise subsided. "However, in terms of what firms are experiencing, things remain pretty soft," she said. "Economy-wide reported past activity fell marginally." Zollner said pricing and cost expectations remained too high to be in line with the Reserve Bank's inflation forecasts, but said firms' own inflation expectations were "well-behaved". ANZ also asked firms what drove their investment decisions - a question asked every three months. "Since we last asked the question in March, amongst firms planning to invest, central government policy has increased as a driver and is now the second most important reason for investing (presumably related to the Investment Boost in the May Budget)," Zollner said. ANZ said competition and low turnover continued to be the main problems for firms, with the agriculture sector faring better than others - thanks to strong prices for key export commodities. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Otago Daily Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Consumer confidence up despite inflation worries
Image: RNZ Consumer confidence is improving but the economic outlook remains soft, with inflation expectations rising to the highest level in more than two years. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted six points to 98.8 in June, following last month's drop to 92.9. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said a number of key indicators remained in negative territory, including the proportion of households who thought it was a good time to buy a major household appliance, at -7. In addition, annual inflation expectations rose slightly to 4.9 percent - the highest level since April 2023. "A few potential explanations seem possible," she said, including global tariff noise and concerns about energy prices. She said the increase was in line with food price inflation, which was running at 4.4 percent. "Household electricity prices are also rising as higher lines charges are passed on." However, she said a net 20 percent of consumers expected to be better off this time next year. "The economy is recovering. It's just taking a little longer than expected. "Households might be sceptical but domestic inflation is on the retreat, and that should lay the path for the RBNZ [Reserve Bank] to ultimately be able to shore up the economic recovery with a little more monetary easing."
RNZ News
6 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
Consumer confidence up despite inflation worries
Photo: RNZ Consumer confidence is improving but the economic outlook remains soft, with inflation expectations rising to the highest level in more than two years. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted six points to 98.8 in June, following last month's drop to 92.9. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said a number of key indicators remained in negative territory, including the proportion of households who thought it was a good time to buy a major household appliance, at -7. In addition, annual inflation expectations rose slightly to 4.9 percent - the highest level since April 2023. "A few potential explanations seem possible," she said, including global tariff noise and concerns about energy prices. She said the increase was in line with food price inflation, which was running at 4.4 percent. "Household electricity prices are also rising as higher lines charges are passed on." However, she said a net 20 percent of consumers expected to be better off this time next year. "The economy is recovering. It's just taking a little longer than expected. "Households might be sceptical but domestic inflation is on the retreat, and that should lay the path for the RBNZ [Reserve Bank] to ultimately be able to shore up the economic recovery with a little more monetary easing." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
RNZ News
30-05-2025
- Business
- RNZ News
High food prices, 'tariff noise' cast shadow over consumer confidence
Photo: RNZ Consumer sentiment has soured amid tariff-induced economic uncertainty and rising food prices. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 5 points fell in May to 92.9 - a reading below 100 means overall sentiment remains pessimistic. It comes after business confidence fell for the third month in a row . The fall in consumer sentiment erased gains from April . ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said it was the first consumer survey where most people answered after the start of "tariff noise". "That could be a factor," she said. "Also, we're experiencing quite high food price inflation at the moment and that tends to go down very badly with consumers." Perceptions about the outlook for the economy over the next 12 months fell 4 points to a net negative 20 percent - indicating most people thought the economy would see bad times financially. A net 10 percent of people felt it was a bad time to buy a major household item, a key indicator for the retail sector. "While that did lift 1 point, it's still a long way from suggesting happy days for the retail sector," Zollner said. Other questions in the survey showed a net 12 percent expected to be better off in a year's time, down 11 points. Household inflation expectations were largely steady, only easing 0.1 percentage points to 4.6 percent. "That's a lot higher than a couple of months ago, with the jump possibly caused by global tariff talk, though household inflation expectations can also be sensitive to food prices," Zollner said. "Household inflation expectations don't have a tight correlation with actual inflation outcomes," Zollner said. "But the perception that inflation is going to be so high is likely to contribute to the sense of a cost of living crisis, potentially dampening spending, if anything." ANZ continued to expect the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates three more times this year, lowering the Official Cash Rate to 2.5 percent. "Our best judgement is that the RBNZ will end up just shoring up the recovery because it's nothing flash at the moment," Zollner said. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Reuters
29-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
New Zealand consumer confidence falls in May
May 30 (Reuters) - Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell in May, with stubbornly high inflation expectations holding back purchasers, ANZ-Roy Morgan data showed on Friday. "Household inflation expectations don't have a tight correlation with actual inflation outcomes," said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner. "But the perception that inflation is going to be so high is likely to contribute to the sense of a cost-of-living crisis, potentially dampening spending, if anything." The consumer confidence index fell to 92.9 in May from 98.3 in April. A reading above 100 shows optimism, while below that indicates pessimism. Consumer inflation expectations eased by 0.1%, but remained elevated at 4.6%.
