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CTV News
4 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
CREA cuts 2025 forecast again but says home sales are rebounding from ‘chaotic start'
A person walks past multiple for-sale and sold real estate signs in Mississauga, Ont., on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it says a turnaround could be looming following increased activity in June. The association reported that the number of homes changing hands across the country in June rose 3.5 per cent compared with a year ago. Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8 per cent compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis. In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a three per cent decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent year-over-year increase. The national average home price is forecast to fall 1.7 per cent on an annual basis to $677,368 in 2025, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in April. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that despite a 'chaotic start to the year,' the latest data suggests the housing market rebound originally forecast for this year — before it was upended by the Canada-U.S. trade war — may have 'only been delayed by a few months.' 'At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May,' said Cathcart in a press release, cautioning 'we're not out of the woods yet' given U.S. President Donald Trump's latest 35 per cent tariff threat. The association said the tariff-related uncertainty that drove so many buyers back to the sidelines earlier this year ended up taking a larger bite out of activity in B.C., Alberta and Ontario than was expected three months ago, but 'the good news is markets appear to be entering their long-expected recovery phase, fuelled by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and an economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios.' 'Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,' said CREA chair Valérie Paquin. 'If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall.' CREA said it now forecasts national home sales in 2026 to improve by 6.3 per cent to 499,081. That would put activity back on track with what was expected in its April forecast, when it predicted a 2.9 per cent gain in sales next year. The national average home price is expected to increase three per cent from 2025 to $697,929 next year. Meanwhile, the national average sale price fell 1.3 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $691,643. There were 47,871 home sales recorded last month, up from 46,237 in June 2024. The association said the recovery in sales activity over the past two months was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area. Still, activity remains slower than usual, said Cameron Forbes, a Toronto-area broker and general manager at Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc. 'The uncertainty of the Trump tariffs and the impact on, certainly in Ontario, the manufacturing context and everything, still has a lot of buyers on the sidelines that probably shouldn't be,' said Forbes in an interview. 'It's still a market where I think buyers are unfortunately a bit uncertain. Many of them who have jobs, who have security of those jobs, who have equity in homes, that would be a great time for them to make a trade to a preferred location or a larger home for their family, but they are looking at the headlines and seeing the uncertainty related to tariffs.' The number of newly listed properties throughout the country was down 2.9 per cent month-over-month from May. A total of 206,435 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier and just one per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year. 'June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths,' said TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note. 'We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats.' BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic said there are three major factors still holding back the housing market, including a 'sluggish' job market being aggravated by the trade war. With the Bank of Canada holding its key policy rate steady, he said mortgage rates of around four per cent are also 'not low enough to improve the affordability calculus in a demand-sparking way.' 'And, market psychology now appears bearish,' said Kavcic in a note. 'Just as expectations of higher prices drove accelerating gains on the way up, the understanding that prices are falling is holding back buyers on the way down in some locations.' Forbes added that much is riding on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S., which currently hold an Aug. 1 deadline. Reaching a compromise could prompt buyers to return, leading to a more 'healthy market,' he said. But failing to reach an agreement on time would mean further uncertainty in the housing market, he said. 'If that's the case, then we'll continue to have fewer sales for at least the next three or four months until the impacts of whatever comes to fruition are better known.' --- Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 15, 2025.
4 days ago
- Business
Home sales up in June, though fewer sales expected this year, says Canadian Real Estate Assoc.
The association said Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8 per cent compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis. In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a three per cent decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent year-over-year increase. The national average home price is forecast to fall 1.7 per cent on an annual basis to $677,368 in 2025, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in April. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that despite a chaotic start to the year, the latest data suggests the housing market rebound originally forecast for this year — before it was upended by the Canada-U.S. trade war — may have only been delayed by a few months. At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May, said Cathcart in a news release, cautioning we're not out of the woods yet given U.S. President Donald Trump's latest 35 per cent tariff threat. WATCH | Rise in home sales largely due to Greater Toronto Area, CREA says: Début du widget Widget. Passer le widget ? Fin du widget Widget. Retourner au début du widget ? The association said the tariff-related uncertainty that drove so many buyers back to the sidelines earlier this year ended up taking a larger bite out of activity in B.C., Alberta and Ontario than was expected three months ago, but the good news is markets appear to be entering their long-expected recovery phase, fuelled by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and an economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios. Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada, said CREA chair Valerie Paquin. If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall. CREA said it now forecasts national home sales in 2026 to improve by 6.3 per cent to 499,081. That would put activity back on track with what was expected in its April forecast, when it predicted a 2.9 per cent gain in sales next year. The national average home price is expected to increase three per cent from 2025 to $697,929 next year. Meanwhile, the national average sale price fell 1.3 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $691,643. There were 47,871 home sales recorded last month, up from 46,237 in June 2024. WATCH | 3 reasons why condos aren't selling: Début du widget Widget. Passer le widget ? Fin du widget Widget. Retourner au début du widget ? The association said the recovery in sales activity over the past two months was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area The number of newly listed properties throughout the country was down 2.9 per cent month-over-month from May. A total of 206,435 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier and just one per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year. June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths, said TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note. We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats.
CBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CBC
Home sales rose in June, though fewer home sales expected for this year, says CREA
Social Sharing For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it reported the number of homes changing hands across the country in June rose 3.5 per cent compared with a year ago. The association said Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8 per cent compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis. In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a three per cent decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent year-over-year increase. The national average home price is forecast to fall 1.7 per cent on an annual basis to $677,368 in 2025, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in April. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that despite a "chaotic start to the year," the latest data suggests the housing market rebound originally forecast for this year — before it was upended by the Canada-U.S. trade war — may have "only been delayed by a few months." "At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May," said Cathcart in a news release, cautioning "we're not out of the woods yet" given U.S. President Donald Trump's latest 35 per cent tariff threat. WATCH | Rise in home sales largely due to Greater Toronto Area, CREA says: Home sales rose in June while prices held steady: CREA 1 hour ago The association said the tariff-related uncertainty that drove so many buyers back to the sidelines earlier this year ended up taking a larger bite out of activity in B.C., Alberta and Ontario than was expected three months ago, but "the good news is markets appear to be entering their long-expected recovery phase, fuelled by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and an economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios." "Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada," said CREA chair Valerie Paquin. "If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall." CREA said it now forecasts national home sales in 2026 to improve by 6.3 per cent to 499,081. That would put activity back on track with what was expected in its April forecast, when it predicted a 2.9 per cent gain in sales next year. The national average home price is expected to increase three per cent from 2025 to $697,929 next year. Meanwhile, the national average sale price fell 1.3 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $691,643. There were 47,871 home sales recorded last month, up from 46,237 in June 2024. Why the condo market is plummeting during a housing crisis 2 months ago The association said the recovery in sales activity over the past two months was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area The number of newly listed properties throughout the country was down 2.9 per cent month-over-month from May. A total of 206,435 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier and just one per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year. "June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths," said TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note. "We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats."
Toronto Sun
4 days ago
- Business
- Toronto Sun
CREA cuts 2025 forecast again but says home sales are rebounding from 'chaotic start'
Published Jul 15, 2025 • 3 minute read A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in the Riverdale area of Toronto on Wednesday, September 29, 2021. Photo by Evan Buhler / The Canadian Press For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it reported the number of homes changing hands across the country in June rose 3.5 per cent compared with a year ago. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account The association said Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8 per cent compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis. In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a three per cent decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6 per cent year-over-year increase. The national average home price is forecast to fall 1.7 per cent on an annual basis to $677,368 in 2025, which would be around $10,000 lower than predicted in April. CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said that despite a 'chaotic start to the year,' the latest data suggests the housing market rebound originally forecast for this year — before it was upended by the Canada-U.S. trade war — may have 'only been delayed by a few months.' Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'At the national level, June was pretty close to a carbon copy of May,' said Cathcart in a press release, cautioning 'we're not out of the woods yet' given U.S. President Donald Trump's latest 35 per cent tariff threat. The association said the tariff-related uncertainty that drove so many buyers back to the sidelines earlier this year ended up taking a larger bite out of activity in B.C., Alberta and Ontario than was expected three months ago, but 'the good news is markets appear to be entering their long-expected recovery phase, fuelled by pent-up demand, lower interest rates, and an economy that is expected to avoid worst-case tariff scenarios.' 'Most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June, although market conditions still vary considerably depending on where you are in Canada,' said CREA chair Valerie Paquin. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'If the spring market was mostly held back by economic uncertainty, barring any further big shocks, that delayed activity could very likely surface this summer and into the fall.' CREA said it now forecasts national home sales in 2026 to improve by 6.3 per cent to 499,081. That would put activity back on track with what was expected in its April forecast, when it predicted a 2.9 per cent gain in sales next year. RECOMMENDED VIDEO The national average home price is expected to increase three per cent from 2025 to $697,929 next year. Meanwhile, the national average sale price fell 1.3 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $691,643. There were 47,871 home sales recorded last month, up from 46,237 in June 2024. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The association said the recovery in sales activity over the past two months was led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area The number of newly listed properties throughout the country was down 2.9 per cent month-over-month from May. A total of 206,435 properties were listed for sale by the end of the month, up 11.4 per cent from a year earlier and just one per cent below the long-term average for this time of the year. 'June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths,' said TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note. 'We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats.' Toronto & GTA Editorial Cartoons Columnists NHL NFL
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's home sales rise for second month, led 'overwhelmingly' by the Greater Toronto Area
Canadian national home sales were up for the second consecutive month in June, rising 2.8 per cent from May, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). CREA said in its latest housing report that the recovery in sales activity was led 'overwhelmingly' by the Greater Toronto Area, where sales have rebounded 17.3 per cent since April. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, total Canadian sales were up 3.5 per cent year-over-year in June. The non-seasonally adjusted national average sale price was down 1.3 per cent in June compared to a year ago. Are Canadian home prices about to roll over? Don't bet the house on it Cottage owners stuck in paradise as market slams to a standstill 'It's another month of data suggesting the anticipated rebound in Canadian housing markets may have only been delayed by a few months, following a chaotic start to the year; although with the latest 35 per cent tariff threat, we're not out of the woods yet,' CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said in a release. More to come… • Email: jswitzer@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
