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Axios
6 days ago
- Climate
- Axios
Why flash floods like those in Texas and New York are becoming more common
Storms sweeping through the U.S. this summer have dumped intense rain on cities across the country, left towns flood-ravaged and forced water rescues. The big picture: Scientists who spoke to Axios say the deadly floods in Texas that killed more than 130 people underscores the risk that climate change can worsen extreme rainfall events. By the early hours of the Fourth of July, storms over Texas had dumped some 12 inches of rain in certain parts of the region, according to National Weather Service radar estimates cited by The Texas Tribune. But the threat didn't stop that day, with more rain falling and hindering desperate search efforts throughout the following week. Driving the news: Meanwhile, on the East Coast, Tropical Storm Chantal rapidly formed — and slowly drenched North Carolina with flooding rains. Last week, storms sparked floods in New Mexico that killed three in the Village of Ruidoso. Widespread rainfall along the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic Monday set off flash flood warnings, grounded flights and sent torrents rushing through New York City subway stations. In New Jersey, two people died after the vehicle they were in was swept away by floodwaters. Context: Climate change"is supercharging the water cycle," sparking heavier precipitation extremes and related flood risks, according to Climate Central, a climate research group. Among 144 U.S. cities analyzed by the group in a report from earlier this year, 88% experienced an increase in hourly rainfall intensity between 1970 and 2024. The summer months already provide the weather patterns for higher rainfall rates in some regions, and climate change makes that risk worse. The latest: A National Weather Service discussion warned the risk wasn't over, noting that a "[p]otent summer storm system" will bring the threat of flash flooding and severe weather "to the Midwest and northern/central Plains Wednesday." It also noted "Storms will continue ahead of the cold front across the interior Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic/Upper Ohio Valley Thursday." In Louisiana, New Orleans and Jefferson Parish is bracing for up to 10 inches of rainfall as a tropical system moves through the region. Friction point: But The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the development of a tool aiming to predict how rising temperatures will impact extreme rainfall frequency has been put on hold amid a review ordered by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The Commerce Department and NWS did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. What they're saying: "With all these events, what they have in common is that in a warmer world, our atmosphere can hold more moisture," said meteorologist Shel Winkley, the weather and climate engagement specialist at Climate Central. In Texas, he said, the remnants of a tropical system primed the area for a heavy rain event over a part of the state prone for flash floods. In a stable climate, it still would have been a significant weather event. But with climate change, "we're essentially just loading up" systems, he said. Winkley continued, "We're adding a little bit more moisture, so that allows for higher rainfall intensity. It allows for a little more heavier rain to come down, and it allows for these weather systems to become more likely and ... more frequent." By the numbers: For every 1°F of warming, the air can hold an extra 4% of moisture, per Climate Central. With climate change, the atmosphere becomes "greedier," Winkley said, meaning it can release more moisture — but it can also take more from the ground. Zoom in: In New Mexico, rain fell over an area that had been previously hit by wildfires, increasing its risk of flash floods. Similarly, the ground in areas hit by drought — like Kerr County, Texas — may not be able to handle downpours, exacerbating flash flood risk. The bottom line: With 2°C of global warming, a large majority of U.S. counties are likely to experience a 10% or higher increase in precipitation falling on the heaviest days, Winkley noted.
Miami Herald
07-07-2025
- Climate
- Miami Herald
In Texas, Florida and across the globe, warmer climate makes flooding ‘more unprecedented'
As the Texas flooding death toll reached 95 on Monday — at least 27 of them children — and Tropical Storm Chantal prompted dozens of water rescues in North Carolina, some Floridians were reminded of the disastrous 'rain bomb' in 2023 that hit faster and harder than any hurricane in living memory. Though no one died from the 2 feet of rain that deluged Fort Lauderdale in a single day in April two years ago, the relentless rain forced hundreds to flee to Red Cross shelters, covered airport runways, filled the tunnel that runs under the New River and turned downtown streets into raging rivers. And, despite the sheer speed with which these floods took people by surprise, they have another thing in common: Climate change made them even more catastrophic. While the tropical system stuck over Texas' Hill Country — also known as 'Flash Flood Alley' — was expected to cause flooding, 'we also know that climate change is adding just a little bit of extra rain,' Shel Winkley, who worked as a broadcast meteorologist for a CBS-affiliate in Texas, told the Miami Herald. Overall, the climate is now 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than before humans started burning fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases that trap heat within the atmosphere. The warmer the atmosphere, the more moisture it can hold, and, consequently, release. Heavier rainfalls likely made the Texas flooding 'even more unprecedented,' said Winkley, who taught at Texas A&M University. 'The question is, would it have come down as fast, and would the river have risen as quickly as it did, without that climate change influence?' Using a rapid analysis to show how the floods are linked to climate change, scientists in Europe determined that warmer weather fueled the Texas disaster as overall weather conditions in that specific region had gotten wetter compared to the past. The severity of the event, they said, can't be explained by naturally occurring changes to the climate and weather. Research by Climate Central, a nonprofit science and communications group, also found that, over the past 50 years, rainfall has become heavier in cities like San Antonio, some 60 miles south of the worst flooding, with rainfalls now increased by 6 percent. In Miami, Climate Central's analysis, which is based on NOAA data, found that the hourly rainfall intensity increased by 12 percent. Both Florida and Texas are adversely affected because they lie on the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently between 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average for the beginning of July, conditions that are 10 to 30 times more likely because of climate change. This extra heat has given more water molecules the energy they need to 'escape' from the surface and evaporate into the atmosphere, where they're supplying additional moisture, which makes rainfall more intense. 'Climate change loads the dice toward more frequent and more intense floods,' Davide Farranda, an expert on extreme weather events at the French National Center for Scientific Research, said in a statement, adding that the Texas flood 'shows the deadly cost of underestimating this shift.' 'We need to rethink early warning systems, land-use planning, and emergency preparedness. And above all, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit future risks,' he said. While cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only proven solution that can stop things from getting even worse, our atmosphere and oceans react slowly to the CO2 we're emitting. The impact of the fossil fuels burnt today will be felt in decades to come. That makes adaptation a necessity, especially in places like South Florida, where a lot of infrastructure dates back to the 1950s. 'These extreme events are likely to become more frequent,' said Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, referring to the 2023 rain bomb, which overwhelmed Fort Lauderdale with such a sudden deluge that schools had to shut down for two days. A 1-in-500-year flood, he said, referring to a flood that, statistically speaking, is so devastating it occurs once every 500 years, 'that will maybe be a 1-in-a-100-year flood, or a 1-in-20-year flood,' Kirtman said. Cities, he said, need to know what to plan for, so infrastructure can be hardened, and at least some catastrophes can be avoided. Figuring out not just how much rainfall we can expect, but also the frequency and duration of rainfall is exactly what Kirtman and colleagues from across Florida, including the US Geological Service, are trying to figure out. Six inches of rainfall might not be a lot for a city like Miami, but it wouldn't be able to handle six inches of rain over three, four or five days. Within a year, he and his colleagues hope to have some preliminary data. Even with that data, keeping people and properties safe from ever heavier flooding can simply prove too costly. Miami, for example, would have had to pay $5.1 billion to upgrade its infrastructure for a 1-in-10-year storm, an extra $1.3 billion compared to adapting for a 1-in-5-year storm. The city tried to find a middle ground, upgrading some projects to higher and others to lower levels. Though Floridians are used to storms, heavy rain and flooding, being surrounded by a warmer Gulf on all sides and the fact that hurricanes have already become more intense doesn't bode well, Winkley said. And while Florida was less susceptible to river flooding due to its lack of hills, the Texas flood, he said, was 'a warning for everybody.' This climate report is funded by Florida International University, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and the David and Christina Martin Family Foundation in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners. The Miami Herald retains editorial control of all content.
06-07-2025
- Climate
How weather conditions set the stage for the deadly Texas flash floods
WASHINGTON -- Incredible amounts of moisture in the air fueled a storm that moved slowly and dumped rain over central Texas, creating conditions for fatal flash floods in the early morning hours when it was easy to catch people by surprise, meteorologists said. More than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain fell in the Texas Hill Country over a span of several hours early Friday, causing water levels to quickly rise, according to the weather forecasting company AccuWeather. The area is naturally prone to flash flooding, but this was an especially bad storm that hit during the vulnerable overnight hours, experts said. Dozens of deaths have been reported along with numerous rescues. Meteorologists said that an atmosphere warmed by human-caused climate change can hold more moisture and allow bad storms to dump more rain, though it's hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur. 'In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be,' said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. 'So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere.' In recent weeks, flash flooding driven by bursts of heavy rain turned deadly elsewhere in Texas and in West Virginia. In San Antonio in June, more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain fell over a span of hours, prompting dozens of rescues from the fast-rising floodwaters and killing at least 13. And in West Virginia that month, at least nine people died when as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain fell within 40 minutes and caused flash flooding in the Wheeling area. Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, said this latest Texas rain storm was roughly a once-in-a-generation event. It fell in the Texas Hill Country where water quickly shoots down rugged hills into narrow river basins that swell quickly. 'As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way.' Henson said. Plus, the area had been in a drought, so the water ran down the dry, hard land fast. That made it more dangerous for children attending camp. 'A sudden surge of rain like that is going to have a harder time getting absorbed,' said Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. 'It just runs right off of it. It's like concrete.' The sheer amount of rain was overwhelming. Former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist, calculated Saturday morning that the storm had dropped 120 billion gallons of water on Kerr County, which received the brunt of the storm. Moisture fueled the storm from many directions. Tropical Storm Barry formed briefly last weekend, moving over Mexico and then its remnants continued up into Texas. But the jet stream, a current of air that moves weather patterns, wasn't there to push that moisture away. 'Normally weather systems and the remnants of tropical systems will get picked up by the jet stream, and that's just not over Texas currently,' said Winkley, the Climate Central meteorologist. 'It's essentially a weather system without a road to get away from the Lone Star State.' The warm water of the Gulf fueled the moist atmosphere. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. The combination gave the storm plenty of fuel once it got started. Winkley said in the area that flooded, climate change might mean that rain storms are less common, but when they do occur they can be more severe. Generally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, creating conditions for storms to drop more rain. 'With climate change we have a warming atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere holds a lot more moisture, and we are seeing obviously much more total atmospheric moisture across the globe in recent years than we normally have,' said Anderson, the AccuWeather meteorologist.
San Francisco Chronicle
05-07-2025
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
How weather conditions set the stage for deadly Texas flash floods
WASHINGTON (AP) — Incredible amounts of moisture in the air fueled a storm that barely moved over central Texas, creating conditions for fatal flash floods in the early morning hours when it was easy to catch people by surprise, meteorologists said. More than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain fell in the Texas Hill Country over a span of several hours early Friday, causing water levels to quickly rise, according to the weather forecasting company AccuWeather. The area is naturally prone to flash flooding, but this was an especially bad storm that hit during the vulnerable overnight hours, experts said. More than two-dozen deaths have been reported along with numerous rescues. Meteorologists said that an atmosphere warmed by human-caused climate change can hold more moisture and allow bad storms to dump more rain, though it's hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur. 'In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be,' said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. 'So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere.' In recent weeks, flash flooding driven by bursts of heavy rain turned deadly elsewhere in Texas and in West Virginia. In San Antonio in June, more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain fell over a span of hours, prompting dozens of rescues from the fast-rising floodwaters and killing at least 13. And in West Virginia that month, at least nine people died when as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain fell within 40 minutes and caused flash flooding in the Wheeling area. Staggering rain runs off hard ground Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, said this latest Texas rain storm was roughly a once-in-a-generation event. It fell in the Texas Hill Country where water quickly shoots down rugged hills into narrow river basins that swell quickly. 'As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way.' Henson said. Plus, the area had been in a drought, so the water ran down the dry, hard land fast. That made it more dangerous for children attending camp. 'A sudden surge of rain like that is going to have a harder time getting absorbed,' said Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. 'It just runs right off of it. It's like concrete.' The sheer amount of rain was overwhelming. Former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist, calculated Saturday morning that the storm had dropped 120 billion gallons of water on Kerr County, which received the brunt of the storm. A storm with plenty of fuel Moisture fueled the storm from many directions. Tropical Storm Barry formed briefly last weekend, moving over Mexico and then its remnants continued up into Texas. But the jet stream, a current of air that moves weather patterns, wasn't there to push that moisture away. 'Normally weather systems and the remnants of tropical systems will get picked up by the jet stream, and that's just not over Texas currently,' said Winkley, the Climate Central meteorologist. 'It's essentially a weather system without a road to get away from the Lone Star State.' The warm water of the Gulf fueled the moist atmosphere. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. The combination gave the storm plenty of fuel once it got started. Winkley said in the area that flooded, climate change might mean that rain storms are less common, but when they do occur they can be more severe. Generally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, creating conditions for storms to drop more rain. 'With climate change we have a warming atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere holds a lot more moisture, and we are seeing obviously much more total atmospheric moisture across the globe in recent years than we normally have,' said Anderson, the AccuWeather meteorologist.
Boston Globe
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
How weather conditions set the stage for deadly Texas flash floods
Advertisement 'In a warming climate we know that the atmosphere has more moisture to give, to hold on to and then to release. But also the thing that we know about climate change is that our rain events are not as uniform as what they used to be,' said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. 'So, you'll get these big rain events happening in localized areas, tapping into the historic level of moisture in the atmosphere.' Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up In recent weeks, flash flooding driven by bursts of heavy rain turned deadly elsewhere in Texas and in West Virginia. In San Antonio in June, more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain fell over a span of hours, prompting dozens of rescues from the fast-rising floodwaters and killing at least 13. And in West Virginia that month, at least nine people died when as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain fell within 40 minutes and caused flash flooding in the Wheeling area. Advertisement Staggering rain runs off hard ground Robert Henson, a meteorologist and writer with Yale Climate Connections, said this latest Texas rain storm was roughly a once-in-a-generation event. It fell in the Texas Hill Country where water quickly shoots down rugged hills into narrow river basins that swell quickly. 'As is often the case with the worst disasters, many things came together in a terrible way.' Henson said. Plus, the area had been in a drought, so the water ran down the dry, hard land fast. That made it more dangerous for children attending camp. 'A sudden surge of rain like that is going to have a harder time getting absorbed,' said Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. 'It just runs right off of it. It's like concrete.' The sheer amount of rain was overwhelming. Former NOAA chief scientist Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist, calculated Saturday morning that the storm had dropped 120 billion gallons of water on Kerr County, which received the brunt of the storm. A storm with plenty of fuel Moisture fueled the storm from many directions. Tropical Storm Barry formed briefly last weekend, moving over Mexico and then its remnants continued up into Texas. But the jet stream, a current of air that moves weather patterns, wasn't there to push that moisture away. 'Normally weather systems and the remnants of tropical systems will get picked up by the jet stream, and that's just not over Texas currently,' said Winkley, the Climate Central meteorologist. 'It's essentially a weather system without a road to get away from the Lone Star State.' Advertisement The warm water of the Gulf fueled the moist atmosphere. Even more moisture came from areas over the Pacific Ocean to the west. The combination gave the storm plenty of fuel once it got started. Winkley said in the area that flooded, climate change might mean that rain storms are less common, but when they do occur they can be more severe. Generally a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, creating conditions for storms to drop more rain. 'With climate change we have a warming atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere holds a lot more moisture, and we are seeing obviously much more total atmospheric moisture across the globe in recent years than we normally have,' said Anderson, the AccuWeather meteorologist.
