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Express Tribune
3 days ago
- Business
- Express Tribune
China's GDP grows 5.3% in H1 despite global headwinds
Listen to article Defying all predictions, China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to preliminary data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as Beijing rejigged its trade strategy in the wake of US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive. Beijing stayed ahead of the curve and outmanoeuvred the trade assault by reconfiguring supply chains, broadening its export footprint beyond US markets and shoring up domestic demand to keep growth on track. The overall size of GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan ($9.1 trillion), demonstrating China's resilience despite global economic headwinds. The 5.3% GDP growth was higher than the average prediction of 5.1% made by 40 economists interviewed by Reuters. "This is a hard-won achievement, particularly considering the sharp fluctuations in the international situation and heightened external pressures since the second quarter," said NBS Deputy Commissioner Sheng Laiyun. He credited the "highly valuable" numbers to stable progress in the implementation of macro-policy, industrial growth topped by high-tech industries and 68.8% from domestic demand. The breakdown shows that the primary industry contributed 3,117.2 billion yuan, with a YoY increase of 3.7%, driven mainly by stable production in agriculture. The secondary industry accounted for 23,905 billion yuan, up 5.3%, and the services sector witnessed the highest growth, contributing 39,031.4 billion yuan, up 5.5%. China's GDP grew 5.4% YoY in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second, showing steady economic momentum despite the global turmoil spawned mainly by Trump's trade tariffs. The manufacturing sector continues to be the engine of China's economic growth. Industrial output grew 6.8% YoY in June, a sharp pickup from May's 5.8% growth. High-tech industries, new-energy cars and robotics industries were the main drivers of growth, showing the country's strategic focus on technological independence and industrial upgrade. "China will still pursue high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology," said Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank. He believes new schemes, such as the science and technology bond board and associated financial instruments, would further boost tech-led development. High-tech production rose by 9.7% in June, contributing to overall industrial growth. Industries like electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries and high-end machinery are witnessing consistent demand both locally and globally. The Chinese government has been promoting industrial innovation through subsidies that target specific sectors, tax breaks and investment incentives, further cementing the sector's growth. "Booming industries, especially the use of digital and green technologies, drove tremendous breakthroughs across industries — illustrating the pace of the nation's technological advances," said Peking University Economist Cao Heping. Despite ongoing global trade uncertainties, Chinese exporters have benefited from reviving international demand and a short-term trade truce with the US. In June 2025, exports expanded by 5.8% YoY, after a 4.8% rise in May. This is the best export growth since mid-2024. Hu Qimu, Deputy Secretary-General of the Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, told Xinhua: "The first-half GDP growth reflects the strong resilience of China's economy, underpinned by its comprehensive industrial system and vast market capacity." China's total exports went up by almost 6% in the first half of 2025, ensuring a healthy trade surplus of about $586 billion. Exports to Southeast Asia shot up by 16.8% YoY, showing the country's increasing trade partnership with regional members via agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China's huge domestic market remains a pillar, supporting long-term economic expansion. Retail sales rose 4.8% in June, after higher 6.4% gains in May. The moderation is attributed by analysts to a mix of risk-averse consumer behaviour and gradual rebalancing in the real estate market. Still, policy measures to spur consumption, such as subsidies for environmentally friendly appliances, electric cars, and rural revitalisation measures, are helping to support it. The introduction of "trade-in" programmes for home appliances and incentives for car replacements have moderated some consumers' wariness. The services sector also recorded a good 5.5% expansion in the first half, reflecting steady demand across segments like transport, finance, health care and internet services. The services industry now represents virtually 60% of China's GDP, highlighting the nation's shift to a more consumption- and services-based economy. The policymakers have used a cautious yet bold strategy to maintain economic growth. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) slashed interest rates earlier this year and pumped in liquidity to stimulate lending and spur business activity. Targeted fiscal policies have aimed at upgrading infrastructure, high-tech industry, and small- and medium-sized enterprises. China has given emphasis to structural change and specific interventions. "China's economic performance this year is a visible rebound and upturn — owing primarily to more solid macroeconomic policies, pointing to a string of monetary easing measures — and a significant boost in fiscal spending," writes Xi Junyang, Professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. International economists are of the view that this strategy demonstrates faith in the intrinsic health of the economy and avoids over-expansion of credit. Considering the Chinese economy's stable path, a number of global financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have now upped their projections for the country's economic growth rate in 2025. Local authorities have been given the ability to speed up infrastructure expenditure and bring forward strategic projects, such as digital economy centres and renewable energy facilities, further supporting growth. The provisional trade truce with the US, reached in May 2025, has brought welcome relief for Chinese exporters. Analysts foresee a YoY growth in the 5-5.2% range, slightly higher than the government's official target. They believe China's push for high-quality, innovation-based growth is setting the foundation for long-term development. The government's measures to spur domestic demand, promote green technologies, and stabilise property markets are seen supporting the economic momentum. The writer is a student and independent contributor
RTÉ News
6 days ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
China's economy grows 5.2% on trade war truce
China's economy expanded more than 5% in the second quarter, official data showed today, buoyed by strong exports but analysts warned that more was work was needed to address sluggish consumer demand. The figures offer a rare bit of good news for the country's leadership as it fights a multi-front battle to kickstart growth - a challenge made all the more difficult by Donald Trump's tariff war. But the knock-on effects of the trade turmoil abroad and persistent sluggish consumption mean the economy could slump in the second half of year, analysts warned. The US president has imposed tolls on China and most other major trading partners since returning to office in January, threatening Beijing's exports just as it becomes more reliant on them to stimulate economic activity. The two superpowers have sought to de-escalate their row after reaching a framework for a deal at talks in London last month, but observers warn of lingering uncertainty. Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said today that the Chinese economy grew 5.2% in April-June, matching a prediction by an AFP survey of analysts and topping an official growth goal for the year set by the government. But it marked a slowdown from the 5.4% seen in the first quarter, which was boosted by exporters rushing to shift goods ahead of swingeing US tariffs kicking in. "The national economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges," NBS deputy director Sheng Laiyun told a news conference. "Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development, and high-quality development made new strides," he said. "The figures probably still overstate the strength of growth," Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year," Huang added. Chinese retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year, below a forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, suggesting efforts to kickstart consumption have fallen flat. The weak readings come even as Beijing tries to shift towards a growth model propelled more by domestic demand than the traditional key drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports. Factory output meanwhile gained 6.8%, higher than the estimate - reflecting continued high demand for Chinese exports that has boosted growth. More deflation But analysts warn that strong exports could be driving deflationary pressures and further dampening already sluggish consumer demand. "Recent efforts to boost spending, such as the broadening of the consumer goods trade-in scheme earlier this year, did temporarily lift retail sales," said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody's Analytics. "However, this support proved unsustainable, with funding reportedly drying up in several provinces. The scheme's limitations highlight the need for policymakers to address the deeper structural challenges behind consumer caution," she added. Data last week showed consumer prices edged up in June, barely snapping a four-month deflationary dip, but factory gate prices dropped at their fastest clip in nearly two years. "The economy posted a solid first half, supported by resilient exports, though this momentum is contributing to deepening deflationary trends," Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, said in a note. "The cost of strong exports is more deflation," she said. Disagreements also persist between Beijing and Washington, despite the framework agreement reached last month. Trump upped the ante yesterday, warning Russia's trading partners that he will impose "very severe" tariffs reaching 100% if Moscow fails to end its war on Ukraine within 50 days. Western nations have repeatedly urged China - a key commercial ally of Russia - to wield its influence and get President Vladimir Putin to stop his three-year-old war with Ukraine. "The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging," Capital Economics' Huang said. "With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal ammunition being depleted and structural headwinds persisting, growth is likely to slow further over the second half," she said.
Fibre2Fashion
16-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's GDP grows 5.3% in H1 2025 amid global pressures: NBS
China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in the first half (H1) of 2025, reaching 66.05 trillion yuan (~$9.24 trillion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Growth in the second quarter stood at 5.2 per cent, following a 5.4 per cent increase in Q1. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.1 per cent. The primary sector grew by 3.7 per cent and secondary sector by 5.3 per cent. China's GDP grew 5.3 per cent YoY in H1 2025, reaching ¥66.05 trillion (~$9.24 trillion), with Q2 growth at 5.2 per cent. Industrial output rose 6.4 per cent. Employment remained stable, but industrial profits dipped 1.1 per cent. Sheng Laiyun highlighted the economy's resilience amid global pressures, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and steady progress. Industrial output climbed 6.4 per cent in H1, driven by strong performance in equipment and high-tech manufacturing. June alone saw a 6.8 per cent rise, up from 5.8 per cent in May. Manufacturing output increased by 7 per cent during January–June period. Among enterprise types, share-holding firms led with 6.9 per cent growth, followed by private companies at 6.7 per cent, foreign-funded firms at 4.3 per cent, and state-owned enterprises at 4.2 per cent. June's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.7 per cent, up 0.2 points from May. The production and operation expectation index rose to 52 per cent, indicating cautious optimism, NBS said. Employment remained stable, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaging 5.2 per cent and easing to 5 per cent in June. Rural migrant workers totalled 191.39 million at end-Q2, up 0.7 per cent year-on-year, with enterprise employees averaging 48.5 working hours per week. However, industrial profit challenges persisted. Between January and May, profits of large industrial firms fell by 1.1 per cent to 2.72 trillion yuan. China's proactive macroeconomic approach has supported steady economic progress. The first-half results are 'highly meaningful' and underscored the resilience shown amid global uncertainties and mounting external pressures, said Chinese media reports quoting Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the NBS. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
CNN
15-07-2025
- Business
- CNN
Q2 GDP: China posts better-than-expected 5.2% growth in the face of ongoing US trade war
Source: CNN China reported better-than-expected economic growth for the second quarter in the face of an ongoing trade war with the United States, as diversification efforts to non-US markets buoyed exports. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.2% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) at a press conference on Tuesday. That was higher than the average prediction of 5.1%, based on a poll of 40 economists surveyed by Reuters on Friday. The GDP growth in the second quarter was a slowdown from a 5.4% expansion in the first three months of the year. Together, GDP growth for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year stood at 5.3%, according to the NBS. Sheng Laiyun, deputy commissioner of the NBS, said the growth in the first half of the year was achieved 'under the challenging circumstances of rapidly shifting international dynamics and significantly increased external pressure since the second quarter.' 'We are also keenly aware that the external environment remains complex and volatile, internal structural problems have yet to be fundamentally resolved, and the foundation of economic performance still needs to be further strengthened,' he said. China's economy remains under mounting external and internal pressure to meet its ambitious target of 'around 5%' growth set for this year, a goal economists believe will be tough to achieve without further policy support. US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive – which at one point reached 145% on Chinese imports – has upended what is arguably the world's most consequential bilateral trade relationship. Under a May truce reached in Geneva that scaled back the triple-digit tariffs, Beijing has less than a month, until August 12, to secure a permanent deal with Washington. For China's export-reliant economy, much hinges on the tariff rate ultimately agreed upon. Even a double-digit levy would carry profound and lasting implications for Chinese manufacturers – a key pillar of the country's economic engine. Domestically, the Chinese economy continues to be plagued by a host of structural challenges, including a prolonged property crisis, soaring youth unemployment, sluggish consumption and persistent deflation. In June, consumer spending fell short of expectations while industrial production exceeded them, according to data released by the NBS Tuesday. Retail sales slowed to 4.8% from the same month last year, compared with 6.4% growth in May. Industrial output expanded 6.8% compared with June last year, an increase from 5.8% last month, likely due to the trade truce. Meanwhile, the housing market is slowing again, weighing on the economy after a brief recovery following late last year's stimulus, Macquarie Group's chief China economist Larry Hu wrote in a Wednesday research note. Investment in the sector plunged 11.2% in the first six months compared with the same period last year, according to NBS data. Nick Marro, principal economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNN that while the trade war has dragged on market sentiment, it hasn't emerged as the massive shock to Chinese economic performance that investors initially feared back in April. With weaknesses in the domestic economy, such as weak consumer confidence and persistent stress in the property sector, however, he expects China to barely undershoot its annual target for this year. But Marro also cautioned that there is a mismatch between what the GDP figure says and what companies and households are seeing on the ground. 'For many, this doesn't 'feel' like an economy growing at around 5% – That sentiment factor has implications for how sustainable future retail spending is, as well as considerations for businesses about future investment expansions, as well as hiring and wage growth,' he said. Despite growth in the first half of the year exceeding the 5% target, economists warned that existing obstacles could weigh on exports and slow economic momentum in the months ahead. Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a Tuesday research note that the economic outlook for the rest of the year remains 'challenging.' 'With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal ammunition being depleted and structural headwinds persisting, growth is likely to slow further over the second half,' he said. In June, China's manufacturers capitalized on the trade truce with the US and diversified their supply routes to achieve a 5.8% growth in overall export compared to the same month in the previous year, beating analysts' forecast, according to trade data released on Monday by China's General Administration of Customs. At the same time, imports edged up 1.1%, marking the first monthly increase in inbound shipments since February. Notably, exports of rare earth jumped 32% in June from the same month a year ago, signaling positive progress as China agreed to approve the flow of the critical elements essential in everything from electronic products to vehicles and fighter jets following talks in London with the US last month. Outbound shipments to the US in June declined 16.1% from the same month last year due to persistent trade frictions. But exports last month grew 32% month-on-month following the Geneva agreement. For the first half of the year, exports to the US dropped 9.9% from a year earlier, with second-quarter shipments plummeting nearly 21%. Southeast Asia in particular has emerged as a major export destination in place of the US. Exports to the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) surged by over 18% compared with June last year. China has increasingly turned to neighboring economies not only as end markets but also as logistical intermediaries, routing goods through countries like Vietnam to circumvent US tariffs — a strategy the Trump Administration has vowed to crack down. As part of a trade framework the US reached with Vietnam, Trump said he will impose a 40% duty on transshipped imports via Vietnam. Chinese exports to Vietnam rose more than 25% last month compared with June last year. At a press conference on Thursday, Chinese officials touted how the country has diversified its 'circle of friends' with a rise in exports to the European Union, South Korea, Japan in addition to ASEAN in the first half of the year. Within China, the economy continues to grapple with deflationary pressure, as factory gate deflation, as measured by Producer Price Index (PPI), plunged 3.6% in June from a year earlier, according to NBS data released last week. This marks its sharpest decline in nearly two years, and extends the country's producer deflation streak to 33 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a benchmark for measuring inflation, rose 0.1% compared to the same month last year, ending a four-month decline. Deflation is problematic because it discourages people from spending now, in anticipation of lower prices in the future. This dampens consumption – a key driver of economic growth. Analysts attributed the uptick in consumer prices to government subsidies on consumer goods, and warned that the recovery may be short-lived as stimulus effects fade. The persistent deflationary pressure is squeezing business profits and wages, and it has been exacerbated by price wars and overcapacity such as in the auto industry. Authorities have grown increasingly concerned and have urged companies to end aggressive discounting. In response to the economic malaise and external challenges like tariffs, China's cabinet, the State Council on Wednesday unveiled a slew of measures to 'stabilize employment,' including expanding social insurance coverage, subsidies, loan support and vocational training for targeted groups such as youths. China's urban unemployment rate stood at 5% in June, below the government's annual target of 5.5%, according to the NBS on Tuesday. But youth unemployment remained a major problem. The unemployment rate for China's working population aged 16 to 24 remained elevated at 14.9% in May, despite falling to its lowest level in nearly a year. The figure for those aged 25 to 29 declined to 7% during the same period. As part of the new measures announced, the government will disburse a one-off subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan ($209) per person to companies and social organizations that hire unemployed youth aged 16 to 24 and pay for their full insurance for at least three months, the notice said. The State Council also directed local authorities to provide graduates struggling to find jobs with one-on-one support, including at least three job recommendations. After graduation, those still unemployed would receive continued support like policy briefings, career guidance, job leads, and training or internship opportunities, the notice said. See Full Web Article
Kuwait Times
15-07-2025
- Business
- Kuwait Times
China's economy grows 5.2% on trade war truce
BEIJING: China's economy expanded more than five percent in the second quarter, official data showed Tuesday, buoyed by strong exports but analysts warned that more work was needed to address sluggish consumer demand. The figures offer a rare bit of good news for the country's leadership as it fights a multi-front battle to kickstart growth—a challenge made all the more difficult by Donald Trump's tariff war. But the knock-on effects of the trade turmoil abroad and persistent sluggish consumption mean the economy could slump in the second half of year, analysts warned. The US president has imposed tolls on China and most other major trading partners since returning to office in January, threatening Beijing's exports just as it becomes more reliant on them to stimulate economic activity. The two superpowers have sought to de-escalate their row after reaching a framework for a deal at talks in London last month, but observers warn of lingering uncertainty. On Tuesday, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent from April to June, matching a prediction by an AFP survey of analysts and topping an official growth goal for the year set by the government. But it marked a slowdown from the 5.4 percent seen in the first quarter, which was boosted by exporters rushing to shift goods ahead of swinging US tariffs kicking in. 'The national economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges,' NBS deputy director Sheng Laiyun told a news conference. 'Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development and high-quality development made new strides,' he said. Markets were mixed in response—after a strong start to the day, Hong Kong pared an early rally while Shanghai dipped into negative territory. 'The figures probably still overstate the strength of growth,' Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. 'With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year,' Huang added. Retail sales rose 4.8 percent on-year last month, below a forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, suggesting efforts to kickstart consumption have fallen flat. The weak readings come as Beijing battles to shift towards a growth model propelled more by domestic demand than the traditional key drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports. Factory output, meanwhile, gained 6.8 percent, higher than the estimate—reflecting continued high demand for Chinese exports that has boosted growth. But analysts warn that strong exports could be driving deflationary pressures and further dampening already sluggish consumer demand. 'Recent efforts to boost spending, such as the broadening of the consumer goods trade-in scheme earlier this year, did temporarily lift retail sales,' said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody's Analytics. 'However, this support proved unsustainable, with funding reportedly drying up in several provinces. The scheme's limitations highlight the need for policymakers to address the deeper structural challenges behind consumer caution.' Data last week showed consumer prices edged up in June, barely snapping a four-month deflationary dip, but factory gate prices dropped at their fastest clip in nearly two years. 'The economy posted a solid first half, supported by resilient exports, though this momentum is contributing to deepening deflationary trends,' Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, said in a note. 'The cost of strong exports is more deflation,' she said. Disagreements also persist between Beijing and Washington, despite the framework agreement reached last month. 'We are resolved to handle our own affairs well,' The NBS's Sheng said Tuesday, noting 'high tariffs' and 'pressure in the external environment'. Yue Su, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told AFP that Tuesday's data demonstrated 'notable resilience', warning that 'trade frontloading will overdraw demand for the second half'. – AFP
