Latest news with #Sherrill
The Hill
3 hours ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 8 points in New Jersey governor race: Survey
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 8 points in New Jersey's gubernatorial race in one of the first independent polls of the general election. The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released on Tuesday showed Sherrill leading with 45 percent support to Ciattarelli's 37 percent, with 16 percent of survey respondents undecided. The race could be a key indicator of political parties' strength ahead of next year's midterms as Republicans seek to build on gains that the party made in the state in the November election and Democrats try to keep the Garden State blue. Pollsters found Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly lining up behind their parties' nominees, with 87 percent of Democrats saying they'll support Sherrill and 86 percent of Republicans planning to back Ciattarelli. But with voter registration in the state clearly favoring Democrats, Ciattarelli will likely need to pull some independent and Democratic support to notch an upset win. 'Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party's candidate,' said Dan Cassino, the executive director of the FDU Poll, in a release. 'While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.' The poll showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli among independents by 7 points, with 30 percent support to his 23 percent, but with a plurality of 41 percent of respondents undecided. The survey also showed whether the race hinges on local or national issues could be critical to determining the winner. Respondents in the poll were first asked about their preference in the governor's race and then asked about a series of local or national issues. Democrats' and Republicans' support for each candidate stayed mostly the same after, but independents' support for the GOP candidate rose by 7 points among those asked about local issues and dropped by 4 points among those asked about national issues. 'Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don't like what's happening in Washington,' Cassino said. 'For Sherrill, on the other hand, there's no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.' The results come after another independent general election poll from the Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling last month that found Sherrill ahead by a much larger margin of 20 points. But Ciattarelli's top strategist slammed the result as an outlier and pointed to recent polling misses in New Jersey that underestimated Republicans. This included the 2021 gubernatorial race, in which Ciattarelli was the Republican nominee for the first time and only lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by 3 points, much closer than polls indicated. President Trump also outperformed expectations in the November election, only losing the state by about 6 points. The FDU poll was conducted from July 17-23 among 806 registered voters. The standard sampling error was 3.4 percentage points.
Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Mikie Sherrill Chances of Defeating Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey—New Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Democratic Representative Mike Sherrill held a single-digit lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the latest poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race released on Tuesday. A spokesperson for Ciattarelli told Newsweek that public polls have had "wild inconsistencies" throughout the election cycle and that the election has "been a margin of error race." Newsweek reached out to Sherrill's campaign for comment via email. Why It Matters The off-year gubernatorial election is viewed as a major bellwether for both major political parties in New Jersey, which has reliably supported Democrats in the past but moved toward Republicans last November. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, last reelected in 2021 against Ciattarelli, cannot run again due to term limits, leaving the seat open. Historically, the party out of power in Washington performs well in off-year gubernatorial elections, and Democrats are hopeful that President Donald Trump's diminishing approval rating will be a boon to Sherrill. But Republicans believe Ciattarelli can continue making inroads with voter groups that shifted to the right over the past few years in the Garden State, and most polls show a tight race. Representative Mikie Sherrill speaks to reporters on August 24, 2021, in Washington. Representative Mikie Sherrill speaks to reporters on August 24, 2021, in To Know The new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) shows Sherrill with a narrow lead. In the survey, 45 percent of respondents said they plan to back Sherrill, with 37 percent supporting Ciattarelli, while 16 percent were undecided. The poll also found that when voters were asked about local issues, Ciattarelli's support among independents increased by 7 percentage points. But when asked questions about national politics, his support among independents fell by about 4 percentage points. However, among Republicans, 3 percent moved from saying they would probably vote for him to definitely vote for him when asked about national issues. Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at FDU and executive director of the FDU Poll, said in the poll write-up that the more nationalized the race becomes, "the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans." Ciattarelli must walk a "fine line" of consolidating Trump supporters without making the race "too national" and alienate voters who are unhappy with the current administration, Cassino wrote. The FDU poll surveyed 806 registered voters from July 17-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Most polls point to a similarly close race. An internal poll from the Ciattarelli campaign, conducted by National Research last month showed him with support from 42 percent of respondents, while 45 percent backed Sherrill. That poll surveyed 600 likely voters on June 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A Rutgers University poll published earlier in July, however, showed 51 percent of voters planned to back Sherrill to 31 percent for Ciattarelli. The poll surveyed 621 adults from June 13-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points. Republicans have not won a New Jersey gubernatorial race since 2013 and have not carried it on the presidential level since 1988. But they see a chance to make more inroads with voters after Trump narrowed his margin in the state by 10 points. He lost the state by 6 points in 2024, down from a 16-point loss in 2020 and a 14-point loss in 2016. What People Are Saying The Ciattarelli campaign told Newsweek: "The wild inconsistencies of these university-based public polls, which were all dead wrong four years ago, speak for themselves. Since the start of the general election, this has been a margin-of-error race. If it wasn't, entrenched special interests wouldn't be lying on Sherrill's behalf or investing millions in her campaign. One thing is for sure, the people of New Jersey are ready for change and that's exactly what Jack will deliver as governor." Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU Poll, in the polling memo: "Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party's candidate. While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win." What Happens Next The New Jersey gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 4. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is "considered competitive" but Sherrill has "an advantage." Virginia is the only other state with a gubernatorial race this year.
Politico
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Politico
Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by ...
Good Tuesday morning! Sick of seeing only internal polls in the race for governor? Here's a public one. Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning of 806 registered voters. That's a much smaller margin than a July 2 Rutgers-Eagleton poll that showed Sherrill with a 20-point lead, and whose sample drew harsh criticism from the Ciattarelli camp. One thing that sticks out about this new poll is how it bears out each campaign's strategy since last month's primary. Sherrill has sought to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, while Ciattarelli — after spending most of the primary successfully courting Trump's endorsement — has sought to focus entirely on state issues while avoiding disclaiming Trump. The poll asked voters their candidate preferences first, then broke them into two groups to ask a series of questions about either state or Trump-related issues before asking their candidate preferences again. In the group asked about local issues — including questions on energy policy, NJ Transit and seizing farmland by eminent domain — Ciattarelli's support among independents grew by 7 points. In the group asked about Trump-related issues — specifically on the budget bill and immigration (no Epstein, sorry!) — Sherrill's support among independents grew by 4 points. Among Democrats and Republicans, however, support barely changed. The poll, conducted between July 17 and 23, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. And before you ask: Yes, FDU, like most pollsters, significantly overestimated Gov. Phil Murphy's margin over Ciattarelli in the closing days of the 2021 gubernatorial race. FEEDBACK? Reach me at mfriedman@ SHOW ME THE WAY: Acting Gov. Tahesha Way is in Ewing at 11 a.m. for an 'Extreme Heat Preparedness Briefing' QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I wonder if I'll ever be offered employment again after this. God I hope not.' — Satirical congressional candidate Nick Gebo, who's running a fake campaign (with a real FEC filing) against Rep. Josh Gottheimer to criticize Israel and American political support for it HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Michael Pagan, Martin Nock, Jeff Morris, Jo Ann Povia, Allison Derman, Bill Pascoe WHAT TRENTON MADE SELLITTING EXPECTATIONS — 'Why did Murphy's proposed parole reform stall?' by NJ Spotlight News' Colleen O'Dea: 'Six months ago, Gov. Phil Murphy called for a broad reform of parole to reduce the frequency of people who make small mistakes winding up back in prison in New Jersey. A month later, as part of his budget plan, he announced East Jersey State Prison would be closed and $30 million in savings would result from the reform. Neither of those things happened, at least not yet. Misconceptions about the impact of the proposal, pushback by parole officials and a lack of time to gather consensus have delayed the plan. Whether those issues can be ironed out before Murphy leaves office in mid-January is unclear … [W]hile summaries and bill drafts were shared among the governor's office, legislators and staff, a final, comprehensive parole reform bill, including changes in sanctions for technical violations, was never introduced. 'There was a lot of kind of back and forth between all of the parties, and I think a lot of information that was getting out there about what the bill did and what it didn't do, some of which was accurate, some of which was not, and it just seemed like everybody wanted to take a step back and make sure that we get it right,' said Jennifer Sellitti, the state public defender.' WHERE THERE'S SMOKE THERE'S MONEY — 'New NJ tax hikes kick in, expected to boost revenue by $600M,' by NJ Spotlight News' John Reitmeyer: 'Later this week, smokers in New Jersey will begin paying more in state taxes every time they purchase a pack of cigarettes or cartridges for vaping devices. That increase, due to take effect on Aug. 1, was one of several tax hikes approved by Gov. Phil Murphy and fellow Democrats who control the Legislature during a flurry of activity late last month. Among the other tax increases are higher rates on online gambling and online sports betting in New Jersey. These new rates went into effect earlier this month. A new set of graduated fees on high-dollar real-estate transactions are also now being charged throughout the state due to the fiscal-policy changes approved by Murphy and lawmakers at the end of June. In all, these tax hikes are expected to lift New Jersey's annual revenue collections to a record-high $57.309 billion, according to an updated budget sheet obtained by NJ Spotlight News under the state's public records law.' THE DEBATE OVER DEBATES — The Ciattarelli campaign wants more than just two televised gubernatorial debates and one lieutenant governor for the general election. 'We urge you — in the strongest possible terms — to approve and schedule more than the two gubernatorial debates and a single Lt. Governor's debate required by law. At a minimum, we are willing to double that number in both cases and begin as soon as possible to accommodate the more robust schedule,' Jack Ciattarelli and running mate James Gannon wrote Monday in a letter to ELEC, which requires gubernatorial candidates who receive public financing to participate in two debates. INSIDE THE ACTORS' UNION MEETING —The Actors' Equity Association at its meeting Monday in New York City voted to endorse Democrat Mikie Sherrill for governor of New Jersey. I note this mainly because it's the first time they've endorsed a candidate for New Jersey governor and the union's president is Brooke Shields. That is, if this is a real-life endorsement and not an act. 'We know she will bring that commitment to the highest office in the state of New Jersey, where so many of our members live and work,' Executive Director Al Vincent Jr., who is not Brooke Shields, said in a statement. The union claims a membership of 51,000, about one-third of whom live in New York metro area, which they were smart to call by its Census name that includes two New Jersey cities: the New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area. One of the union's top issues is Trump administration cuts to arts funding. — Edelstein: 'Manhattan may get a casino? Hold my gabagool, says New Jersey' — 'Sherrill opposes Trump plan to use Fort Dix as ICE detention center' — 'What lieutenant governor picks say about NJ's gubernatorial candidates' — Opinion: 'Like D.C., New Jersey has its own unjust budget' TRUMP ERA RESPECT MY AUTHORITABBA — Alina Habba's authority as New Jersey's top prosecutor questioned in new legal filing, by POLITICO's Ry Rivard, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: The clash between the Trump administration and the courts over who is leading the U.S. Attorney's Office in New Jersey is already spilling into criminal cases. A defense attorney is trying to get charges against his client thrown out by arguing the Trump administration illegally maneuvered to keep Alina Habba as the state's top federal prosecutor, despite the expiration of her 120-day tenure. The defense filing, made on Sunday, comes after days of confusion over who is leading the office because of complex and contested rules over filling vacancies. In the motion, on behalf of a defendant in a drug and gun-related case, attorney Thomas Mirigliano said a workaround Trump officials found to keep Habba was 'irregular' and unconstitutional. In a nine-page filing, Mirigliano said his client is 'facing an imminent criminal trial proceeding under questionable legal authority' and asked for the charges to be thrown out or that Habba and her assistants be barred from exercising further prosecutorial powers in the case. The problems for the U.S. Attorney's Office could grow if other defense attorneys open a floodgate of similar motions. JUSTICE HABBLED — 'N.J. criminal cases screech to a halt as Habba's authority is challenged,' by The New York Times' Tracey Tully: 'Federal court proceedings throughout New Jersey were abruptly canceled on Monday because of uncertainty over whether Alina Habba had the authority to serve as acting U.S. attorney … Pretrial conferences and hearings set for defendants to enter pleas were called off, according to four lawyers who received word that their clients' scheduled court appearances had been canceled. A grand jury that was expected to meet to consider indicting defendants on new criminal charges was put on hold. And a drug trial that was set to start Aug. 4 in Camden, N.J., was moved to Pennsylvania after a lawyer representing one of the defendants filed a motion arguing that Ms. Habba's prosecutorial authority was unconstitutional. 'I've never seen anything like this,' said Maria Noto, a former president of the Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers of New Jersey. 'We're all incredulous.'' YOU MEAN TO TELL ME THAT JD VANCE PUT HIS PRINCIPLES IN WRITING AND THEN DIDN'T STICK TO THEM? — 'Trump's personal lawyer became acting U.S. Attorney through legal loophole Republicans once fought,' by NJ Advance Media's Ted Sherman: 'The law was clear, argued members of the U.S. Senate committee. The administration could not name someone to serve in an acting capacity after their nomination had failed. 'This prohibition, which survives a withdrawal of a nomination, makes good sense: otherwise the president could do an end run around the Senate's constitutional advice and consent authority,' they wrote. The letter had nothing to do with last week's move by the Trump administration to install Alina Habba, one of the president's personal attorneys, as U.S. Attorney for New Jersey. It was written two years ago by Senate Republicans objecting to an apparently similar end-run effort by the Biden administration to name Ann Carlson to serve as acting administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Among those signing on to the letter were the then-senator and now Vice President JD Vance and Sen. Ted Cruz.' — 'Op-Ed: How NJ can mitigate 'brutal wave' of Medicaid and health care cuts' — 'John Hsu will challenge Frank Pallone once again in NJ-6 primary' — 'Border patrol agent charged with soliciting sex from officer posing as girl in NJ' LOCAL BERT HURT — 'What does NJ Supreme Court ruling mean for Paterson's ousted police chief?' by the Paterson Press' Joe Malinconico and Darren Tobia: 'For more than two years, Police Chief Engelbert Ribeiro has been collecting his $225,000 annual salary from the city of Paterson while reporting for work at a state law enforcement training job in Trenton. That's the arrangement state officials put in place in 2023 after Attorney General Matthew Platkin seized control of Paterson's police department, relieving Ribeiro of a leadership position he had held for just 24 days. The status of Ribeiro — described by his friends as a man banished in an unjust exile — doesn't seem to be changing after the New Jersey Supreme Court ruling on July 23 that allowed Platkin's takeover of the police department to continue. The lawsuit sought Ribeiro's return to Paterson. But the Supreme Court decision didn't say what should happen with the ousted chief. The AG's office said Ribeiro's assignment to the Police Training Commission has been extended through Nov. 15, with future personnel decisions made 'in accordance with the needs of the department.' 'Bert caught a bad break,' Paterson activist Ernest Rucker said of Ribeiro. 'I've got a lot of respect for Bert.'' NEWARK'S FIRST XXX PROJECT SINCE THE LITTLE THEATRE CLOSED — 'Big-time CitiSquare project in Newark stalled three years after approval. What's next?' by NJ Advance Media's Steve Strunsky: 'Three years ago, on the recommendation of Mayor Ras J. Baraka's administration, the Newark City Council approved a tax abatement plus $18 million in other financial help for a massive $2 billion project known as CitiSquare. The completed project would include 11 apartment towers with 4,200 market-rate and affordable units, which in renderings looked like a modern city unto itself overlooking the Passaic River … Since the council approved the tax breaks in July 2022 after the project had already received planning board approval, there are no visible signs of work on the site, where the first of nine phases was to include a pair of 18-story towers with a total of 598 apartments. CitiSquare remains among the portfolio of projects listed on Accurate's web site, complete with glossy renderings. But rather than being identified as completed or upcoming, as other Accurate projects are, the status of CitiSquare is indicated by a 'XXX,' without explanation.' ACHARCHY IN THE AC — 'Atlantic City Housing Authority to hold emergency meeting Tuesday to authorize response to HUD takeover,' by The Press of Atlantic City's John O'Connor: 'The city's housing authority will hold an emergency meeting Tuesday to formalize its response to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development after it said it would take over the local agency. The meeting is scheduled for 1 p.m. … HUD sent a letter to the Housing Authority last week declaring it in substantial default, U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-2nd, said in a news release. 'Based on the gravity of ACHA's situation, I have determined that it is not appropriate to permit ACHA the opportunity to cure the substantial debt,' said Benjamin Hobbs, principal deputy assistant secretary for HUD. 'Further, I have also determined that the most appropriate substantial default remedy, in the context of the several factual findings made, is for HUD to take possession of the ACHA.'' — 'Longtime manufacturing plant in Sayreville shuttering, 50 jobs slashed' — 'Appellate court orders recount in Roselle council primary' — 'Wildwood Crest pays $2K to attorney in OPRA settlement' — ''Wawa wants to take my property!' Meet the man fighting to stop it' — 'Jersey City BOE race has familiar JCEA ticket, ex-trustee seeking comeback' — 'South Jersey slaughterhouse discharges bloody wastewater into creek, according to the EPA' — 'A year later, a Fort Lee woman killed by police is remembered as a musician 'full of life'' EVERYTHING ELSE ZINNK OR ZWIM — 'Rutgers to hire SEC 'rising star' with ties to new president as athletic director,' by NJ Advance Media's Brian Fonseca and Steve Politi: 'Rutgers is expected to hire LSU executive deputy athletic director and chief operating officer Keli Zinn for its long-vacant athletic director position, multiple people with knowledge of the situation told NJ Advance Media. The long-time college sports official met with Amy Towers, the chair of the Rutgers Board of Governors who is leading the search, in New Brunswick this weekend. The move is expected to be approved by the full Board of Governors at a meeting on Wednesday. The hire puts an end to a months-long saga that began last August with Patrick Hobbs' abrupt resignation, featured two interim ADs and recently included dumping a search firm three months after it was retained to officially launch the process. Unlike previous top candidates Brian Lafemina — a longtime sports executive and alum who turned down the job a month after interviewing for it — and veteran sports marketing administrator Mike Palisi, Zinn has a longstanding relationship with a crucial figure in the process: new Rutgers president William Tate, who hired her at LSU and served as her boss for the past three years.' — 'How Greg Schiano built Rutgers football's infrastructure to adapt to changing landscape' — 'New Rutgers AD Keli Zinn brings an impeccable reputation to an impossible job | Politi' THE PERSON WHO OPENED THE CHECK SAID 'HOLY' SOMETHING — 'Holy Name Medical Center gets $75M donation, one of the biggest ever to a NJ hospital,' by The Record's Scott Fallon: 'Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck has received a $75 million donation in what it believes to be the second largest gift from a single benefactor to a New Jersey hospital and the largest ever to a Catholic hospital in the U.S., executives announced on July 28. The donation comes as Holy Name embarks on major expansion plans … The gift comes from The Douglas M. Noble Family Foundation of Paramus, whose namesake was a longtime North Jersey neuroradiologist who owned and was medical director of The Imaging Center at Morristown. Noble died in 2019 at age 58 after a battle with cancer.'
New York Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Mikie Sherrill dodges again on Mamdani, drawing fire from Ciattarelli and GOP
Democrat New Jersey gubernatorial hopeful Mikie Sherrill once again sidestepped questions about whether she will go across the Hudson River to endorse socialist Zohran Mamdani's mayoral candidacy, despite previously expressing interest in him. 'Look, I haven't weighed in, I haven't made endorsements in New York because I'm running in New Jersey,' Sherrill told PIX11 News on Friday. Two days after the New York City mayoral primary, Sherrill had a different tune, telling NBC 10 Philadelphia that she assumed she would back him and voiced interest in his plans to 'deliver efficient government.' Democrats in New York and the tri-state area have scrambled over how to navigate Mamdani's shock win over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) last month, given his far-left agenda. Top leaders such as Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have refrained from endorsing Mamdani — for now. 3 Mikie Sherrill has echoed the strategy of top New York Democrats in evading questions about Zohran Mamdani. REUTERS 3 Zohran Mamdani has struggled to win support from establishment Democrats. Andrew Schwartz / Republicans have seized their silence and sought to use Mamdani's victory to help boost their otherwise dim prospects in the off-year elections. New Jersey Republican gubernatorial contender Jack Ciattarelli quickly ripped into Sherrill for sidestepping on Mamdani and highlighted how she expressed interest in him shortly after he won the Democratic primary during a June 26 interview. 'First Mikie Sherrill endorses Zohran Mamdani and calls his radical policies 'interesting'… now she's pretending she never heard of him? Come on, Mikie — NJ voters aren't stupid,' Ciattarelli chided on X. 'Roll the tape. You said it. You own it,' he added with a compilation of Sherrill's responses to questions about Mamdani. The Republican Governors Association also blasted Sherrill. 'New York's failures become New Jersey's problems,' the RGA swiped. '[Mikie Sherrill] said she'd support Mamdani saying, 'If he's the Democratic candidate, which it sounds like he is, I assume I will.' Now, she's acting like she doesn't know him,' the GOP group said on X. Mamdani is the favorite to win the Big Apple mayoral primary, though he still faces general election competition from Mayor Adams, Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Sherrill, a former Navy pilot who rode the blue wave to Congress in 2018, has sought to portray herself as a moderate Democrat. She first arrived in the House in 2019 with fellow national security buffs Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who is the favorite in the Virginia gubernatorial primary. All three women had fashioned themselves as centrists and touted their national security backgrounds. 'I will tell you here, people are deeply concerned about the affordability that I've laid out,' she added to PIX11 News, after evading a question on Mamdani. 'They want to see the plans and policies that are going to make a difference and [have] a sense that what Trenton is doing in the entrenched interests there and the regulations and the red tape and the bureaucracy are not delivering for them.' 3 Republican Jack Ciattarelli is facing an uphill battle against Mikie Sherrill, though polls underestimated him during the last gubernatorial contest. AP Ciattarelli lost to outgoing New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) by a measly three points in 2021, and President Trump lost the Garden State by about six points in 2024, indicating that Republicans can be competitive in the Democratic stronghold state. The off-year election in New Jersey, alongside the elections in New York City and Virginia, are widely seen as bellwethers that could be harbingers of what's to come in the 2026 midterm cycles.
Newsweek
17-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Jack Ciattarelli's Chances of Beating Sherrill and Flipping New Jersey—poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill maintains a lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race for New Jersey governor, according to a new internal poll from the GOP candidate's campaign. The survey results align with other recent polls, which show Sherrill consistently ahead of Ciattarelli by margins ranging from 5 to 20 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns via email for comment. Why It Matters New Jersey's gubernatorial race is one of only two such national contests in 2025, drawing national attention as a bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is term limited, providing both parties the opportunity to view the race as a crucial test of their platforms—and of President Donald Trump's influence in the region. Though New Jersey has reliably supported Democrats in statewide races, gains for the Republican Party and shifting voter attitudes on economic issues have narrowed margins. Competition over cost of living, taxes and the potential impact of national political figures heighten the significance of this year's election. New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New Jersey. New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New To Know The most recent internal survey conducted for a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC and published by the New Jersey Globe showed Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli by 5 percentage points—47 percent to 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided. The poll, conducted by Kellyanne Conway for the Change NJ super PAC, attempted to mirror past general election turnout demographics. The pollsters also found that more than half of respondents (53 percent) believe New Jersey is on the wrong track and 52 percent want "major change." A separate Rutgers-Eagleton poll released in early July found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by 20 points—51 percent to 31 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, told Newsweek via phone on Thursday that the average New Jersey voter likely isn't paying much attention to the race yet. She expects enthusiasm on both sides to ramp up following Labor Day. "I think inevitably this race is going to tighten," Koning said. "It's just a matter of when and also, this race is going to be competitive no matter what margin we may be seeing. In our polling from a month or so ago we show that there is a notable number of those who are voter models are a best educated guess. Nobody knows this unknown population of who is going to turn out by Election Day." The Rutgers poll found Sherrill performing particularly well on issues of cost of living and affordability, though her advantage on taxes diminished, with just a 5-point edge among registered voters. Independents, who often swing statewide races, broke for Sherrill 45 percent to 28 percent (or 51 to 34 percent when leaners were included), but up to one-fifth of the group remained undecided. The poll's methodology showed Sherrill viewed as moderate or somewhat liberal by most voters, while Ciattarelli was seen as more conservative. While 45 percent of voters trust Sherrill to handle cost of living, 29 percent favor Ciattarelli, according to Rutgers polling. On taxes, voters went 39 percent for Sherrill and 34 percent for Ciattarelli, with the remainder undecided or distrustful of both. "'Affordability' is definitely the buzzword of this election within New Jersey and I'd like to think that New Jersey has a unique brand of of politics that still has many issues at the state level that are unique to the Garden State," Koning said. "I think affordability is an umbrella term [for] many of these issues that New Jerseyans have perennially been concerned about, first and foremost taxes and property taxes. "We have the highest property taxes in the country, and New Jerseyans have been telling us in our 50-plus years of polling that that's typically their No. 1 problem. In our most recent poll, taxes were followed by cost of living and affordability." Other issues are more run-of-the-mill come election time, including the broader economy, jobs, health care and child care. While Ciattarelli will focus heavily on taxes, a particularly salient issue for Republicans, Sherill will do the same for child care and housing affordability, which have been linked to Democratic ideals. There is one figure that may ultimately sway the New Jersey race: Trump. Koning said that in their pre-primary polling, half of Republican respondents said that an endorsement for Republican candidate by Trump would make them more likely to vote. Half said it wouldn't make a difference. But it may also galvanize anti-Trump voters, including independents, against Ciattarelli, whom she said started to somewhat disavow and distance himself from Trump in his 2021 race against Murphy, homing in more on kitchen-table issues like the economy and taxes. It made the race a lot closer in the end, with Murphy winning by about 3 percentage points. "President Donald Trump is going to loom very large over the election," Koning said. "As of right now, that doesn't necessarily seem to be working in Ciattarelli's favor. We don't know if that's going to change. Obviously, the impact of the national political landscape over the next several months—particularly the economy, the impact of the statewide political landscape, the impact of regional politics with the New York City mayoral race—all of that could have an influence on the New Jersey governor's race. "But obviously [Trump] seems first and foremost kind of like the biggest influence as of right now, and it does not seem to necessarily be a plus-1 for the Republican side." Polling conducted by American Principles Project in June showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli, 50 percent to 43 percent, among 400 likely voters, consistent with other surveys showing single to low double-digit advantages for the Democrat. A SurveyUSA poll recording Sherrill at 51 percent and Ciattarelli at 38 percent, with a significant percentage of voters either undecided or supporting other candidates. What People Are Saying The Ciattarelli campaign told Newsweek in June: "Make no mistake that this is a 'CHANGE' election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate. A majority of New Jersey voters (54 percent) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33 percent believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72 percent to 14 percent margin among those wrong-track voters, and an even stronger 87 percent to 6 percent among voters who want a governor who will 'shake up Trenton.'" What Happens Next The New Jersey gubernatorial election will be held on November 4. Both campaigns are expected to intensify voter outreach and messaging on key economic issues as Election Day approaches. A significant undecided voter bloc and the influence of national politics will continue to drive developments in the final months of the campaign.
